The Same Things Just Keep Happening

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good morning bloggers,

The drought ended over most of the western half of Kansas this summer down to Amarillo. This is pretty amazing when you think how dry it was out there as we moved into the late spring months.  Thunderstorm complexes tracked repeatedly over that region, and somehow the drought expanded and worsened farther east near Kansas City.  It has been one of the more frustrating weather patterns to describe. The good news:  A new pattern will set up in less than two weeks, uh I mean months.

Screen Shot 2018-08-17 at 7.34.06 AM

The risk of severe weather today will be shifting over the northeastern USA:

day1otlk_1200

Today’s Weather Video:

The European Model, that had KC in the heavy rain, has also shifted away.  Maybe something different will happen Sunday night into Monday, but we have been through this every single time from our winter storms, to our spring storms, and now through our summer storms. There have been so many chances.

Screen Shot 2018-08-17 at 7.30.57 AM

Have a great day!

Gary

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

37
Leave a Reply

avatar
16 Comment threads
21 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
18 Comment authors
Fred NolanGaryJayHeat MiserJordan Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

“The same things keep happening”…
Like getting up in the morning and reading the same blog for a second day…

Things are turning a little greener around parts of KC so thats a good sign. Ready for a nice long stretch of fall for sure.

Jay
Guest
Jay

Gary, in order for this next storm system to bring us the best chance of widespread rain, I assume we are needing the low to track south of the KC area?

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

GFS has us bone dry through the beginning of September. If this system doesn’t produce, soybeans and other fall crops are going to suffer just like the corn did this summer. We going to plant an acre or so of some different brassicas for a fall harvest, but there’s no point this year.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Can’t trust GFS that far out. Back in late July the GFS was bone dry though mid August, but it quickly changed and I’ve had about 3″ this month so far. Not outta the drought yet, but the grass is at least greened up and growing ever so slowly. Ponds could use a heavy run off but nothing is on verge of drying up down here. Now,Sundays storm is doing it’s same LRC routine. Looked great yesterday, now NAM has big dry slot and we get screwed again. Alot of time for more solutions there but you get the drift,… Read more »

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

I know the GFS sucks more than a few days out, it just looks like a bad omen for my neck of the woods. I’m still getting missed for the most part up here. The Drought monitor has me listed in D4 now, which seems about right. We got about .1″ yesterday, .3″ out of the weekend storm, and are sitting at just over 1.7″ over the past 30 days. If you wouldn’t mind sending some of that moisture my way, I would appreciate it lol.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Poured in Shawnee last night, you keep missing it by smallest margin. Now that I think about it, I have been missing in same fashion. Very weird drought

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

I got hit with the thinnest part of that small line that formed just northwest of the city yesterday evening. We had the bottom edge of a decent-looking cell heading right for us, and on radar it looked like it jumped over us. We were literally missed by blocks (again).

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

sometimes it sucks a day out

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

LOL especially this summer.

Mike Holm
Guest
Mike Holm

There is no doubt that the weather cycles. How could anybody dispute this pattern that were in. I explain to people this way, The LRC works where it works. I use the LRC to predict where the snowfall is going to occur for skiing. Last year the weather pattern for the Pacific Northwest cycled perfectly. It was working great and I was able to time 2 separate storms (trips) of 15+ inches. It also works great on the East Coast resorts. Colorado resorts are a little shaky. They didn’t start to become regular until February of last year. I don’t… Read more »

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Don’t point out obvious contradictions to the LRC, Mason. You’ll get no answer from Gary and you’ll bring on the wrath of Mower Mike and the other LRC disciples. “It’s the same, but different”, “seasonal differences”, etc. allow for the theory to be shoe-horned into virtually any discussion. It’s MAGIC, I tells ya!

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

I thought that 70% prediction for the rain Sunday/Monday was a little… preemptive. This weather pattern can swallow the business end of a shotgun.

Jon Behle
Guest

Simple,

The center of the drought or where areas miss can still wonder around but be the same pattern. There’s a reason many heavy snows in a more active pattern will hit Central Iowa in part of a winter then maybe SE Iowa and Illinois for another.

Mason - Basehor
Guest
Mason - Basehor

So…if the theory allows the drought to ‘wonder around,’ then does that mean it still would have fit the theory of KC, in the spring (right in the middle of this LRC), had suddenly wound up in record-wet territory rather than exceptional drought territory?

So in summary, in the spring, the LRC would have supported a forecast for exceptional drought or for a wet summer; either would have fit the theory?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

The drought wandered around due to the fact of the jet stream retreating allowing the southern branch to take over in areas that were in drought, and causing the ridge to be trapped between the branches of the jet stream.

Mason - Basehor
Guest
Mason - Basehor

Gary — You briefly mentioned Amarillo in this post. Earlier in the year, you frequently highlighted their drought as a touchstone of this year’s pattern. In the winter and spring — the first half of this pattern (per your theory), Amarillo was remarkably dry. You showed them in posts many times. They went something like a hundred days with little more than traces of precip. But then you stopped mentioning them this summer. In the last few months, they’ve had wave after wave of heavy rain, entirely erasing their winter/spring deficit. It was like night and day; a switch was… Read more »

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Mason, I agree with your assessment but to a degree. Remember last year in the KC region we were kind of dry then May or so it just started to rain and rain prolifically. If you also remember, that 45 to 65 miles outside of the KC region, it was really dry. I have no idea of all the dynamics involved that lead to KC proper getting swamped but outside of the proper, crispy. I know your comment was towards Gary and I’m not backing him up or bashing him but Amarillo just was in the right for all the… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I thought this next storm was supposed to be widespread rain.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Another bright light heard from.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

The storm this past weekend was supposed to be as well (well, up until the day of the storm, when they changed the forecast.) I was supposed to get 1″-1.5″, and ended up with .3″.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

but Gary expecting more out of this next one…didn’t seem to have much question about it

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Ahh, gotcha.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

D’OH!

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

I’m still as dry as burnt toast in SE Miami county. Rain was all around except for the dome over the far southern part of the county. Pumpkins never developed which we use a fall fodder for the sheep. Looking forward to fall and maybe we will get some showers to help the pastures out for winter grass stocking.

Real Humedude
Guest
Real Humedude

I’m in same boat Farmgirl, we missed the rain yesterday too. I was certain we couldn’t get missed, but it keep running into a wall at state line and never made it east. Only got some dinky showers to settle dust, about .1″ this morning form a few little showers. Ft. Scott and Nevada have been getting huge rains this year, they get them every time! Storms have tended to train this year like no other, they refuse to move progressively, just dump in one spot, die, and redevelop elsewhere in very frustrating fashion.

Troy
Guest
Troy

How much of that do you think is due to the dry ground? Do the storms with not much steering flow just follow the path of the most low level moisture which is not in your direction?

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

Its crazy how those storms last night evolved. I watched several several lines that looked promising yet were so deceiving. Managed only a few sprinkles near K10 and K7 in Olathe. Luckily, managed to get close to an inch from the storms on Tuesday.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Gary, what time will the rain move in on Sunday?

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

In a reflection of this LRC, we pretty much know what’s going to happen, 3 to 10 days out, storm looks good for us. Then event day and something happens and pooooof, hit and miss as far as precipitation goes. Temp wise, I’m still searching for other reviews and additional info as to why we went from cold/cool to hot. Only review I have found was posted in Science Daily. While, if that review holds weight, then as the northern latitude circulation reorganizes, we’ll stay warm but not hot. It’s possible we have a few hot days because of storm… Read more »

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

I think you meant 2 months Gary but absolutely none of us would be unhappy if a new pattern did start in 2 weeks.

Mike
Guest
Mike

“A new pattern will set up in less than two weeks.” You mean two months? I thought the new LRC begins to evolve in October.

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

Gary, using the LRC, what will Sept be like from a temperature standpoint. Will we eventually cool down and transition into fall? Or will we remain hot?

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

If he doesn’t answer go to CPC, they’ll give you a very general idea about that. (not necessarily accurate)

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

I check the CPC and they’re usually very nonchalant with their forecasts. The only ones that validate are their short term forecasts.