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Good morning bloggers,

There is a weak front that is not very well defined tracking southeast across the plains this morning. There is a much stronger summer cold front forecast to develop and approach the area later this weekend.  These two systems have my attention today, so let’s discuss these set ups.  The severe weather risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center has been pushed farther south.

day1otlk_1200

There is no well defined front. This is the first problem with forecasting any areas where severe thunderstorms will form.  And, this has been a consistent “problem” for storm chasers in our region all year long in this cycling pattern.  The 6 PM map is platted below. Where is the front?  I will be trying to find it later today on 41 Action News during our 4, 5, and 6 PM newscasts. By the 6:30 Pm newscast a few thunderstorms may begin forming near the frontal zone.

1

The front is still ill defined at 10 PM, but the HRRR shows thunderstorm development near KC and south of KC by late evening:

2

The next front is much stronger. It is actually looking like a candidate for the first front of the fall season.  I plotted this 7 AM Monday forecast map from the latest GFS model below.  A surface cyclone is forecast to develop over Missouri by Monday. As this moves by, a pretty nice north to northwest wind will develop by Monday evening, and this will push drier air our way and allow morning lows to possibly drop deeper into the 50s.  There will be a chance of thunderstorms later Sunday into Monday as this system moves by.

3

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments. We are less than two months away from having a new LRC to discuss. I can’t wait!  Have a great day.

Gary

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Stacey
Guest
Stacey

Not even a drop in South Olathe…sad day!

disbelief
Guest
disbelief

It is almost like a four year old draws the weather maps…just color where you think it will rain

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I got a couple of so-so bands passing through me southeast of the stadiums. Nothing earth shattering, but so-so periods lasting a short while, plus some lighter stuff mixed in.

NAM 3km says we’ll get more in a few hours? Not sure whether to believe it or not.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

That’s what Katie says too

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

She’s the last person you’d want to get weather from

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Agreed! Cantbelieve she’s baaaaack! Refuse to watch her. That performance from a few years back, when she came in for a funnel cloud, pretty much pushed the wknd guy out of the way (he was doing fine) and went on air in a t-shirt, that was just so bad!

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Bone dry in north Olathe, complete “miss Noonan”! I thought I saw a non descript light cessna overhead today . . .

Matt
Guest
Matt

Lots of Thunder and Lighting Northern OP.

Mary
Guest
Mary

Nice steady rain with thunder in central Shawnee

Nate
Guest
Nate

Classic Weather Manipulation Operations

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Classic conspiracy theory nut

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

HOW THE HELL DID THAT LINE MISS ME?!?!?! %#@$#$#@!%^(@&^*)#@(!)

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

I can’t even blame this one on the models, this is just Mother Nature ******* with me.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Tsk tsk…such foul language. LOL

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Heyyyy, I censored myself… for the most part. lol

Trainman
Guest
Trainman

Lots of scattered storms firing up around the metro now. Thought we would remain dry tonight but weather can surprise

DaveC
Guest
DaveC

Whenever I see that rain is in the forecast.. I just chuckle inside.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Spitting around farm, unbelievable. Ft.Scott, pounded again. They’ve had 10+” more than I have this year I guarantee it

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Our corn ended up fried this year, and all of the fields around Wyandotte County that don’t have irrigation look exactly the same. If things don’t improve this winter, I doubt we’ll plant as much as we did next year.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Guess what that big line passing through the city did to me? lol

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

I’m guessing my chance just went out the window when that cell formed a couple miles east of me. And, of course, the widespread rain is well to our south. Another great job by the models predicting when rain will fall more than 30 minutes before the event.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

when=where

Matt
Guest
Matt

Warnings just south and west of Olathr.

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

West JoCo gonna be the winner tonight

Nick
Guest
Nick

Watch was issued 1 minute before your post!

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Severe T Storm Watch issued JOCO KS.

Max
Guest
Max

Severe T Storm watch for all of metro until 11:00pm

ginapuff
Guest
ginapuff

NWS has a MD discussion of a watch being issued soon for NE KS.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Isolated storm just moved over my house in SW Topeka. Looks like about .02″ of rain fell. Well…that’s something to build on I guess…

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

LRC

Lonely
Richard
Complains

Every. Single. Day.

RickMcKC
Guest
RickMcKC

I do not understand why this person is allowed to continue posting here.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Agreed. It meets the classic definition of cyber bullying!

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

LRC

Little
RickMcKC
Complains

Lmao @ cyberbullying

Richard
Guest
Richard

dogg
Where is a complaint from me today.
None, until now, wondering why Gary continues to give you a pass

You and LYITC41 must have a close connection to Gary to continually be allowed to troll on here.

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

SPC expanded slight risk of severe weather again further north towards St. Joe to include all of KC.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

New NWS discussion calls for supercell development between 7 pm and midnight.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EAX&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

This weather statement from the NWS in Topeka was issued at 2:05 PM today, but does it really seem likely?comment image

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Nothing even starting to pop up on satellite….so at least the first hour of that forecast is a dud.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Storm just west of Topeka on radar.

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

Storm just west of Topeka on radar

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Yeah, and the page says Today (Wednesday, 8/16), so none of it makes sense.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

FWIW — KC Metro is now in Drought 4 / Exceptional – just like we were in 2012. #WetDrought2018

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?KS

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Well, at least the northwest side of the Metro. Most of Jackson County is still in D2.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

How many inches short of average precipitation is KC experiencing? That map shows we (Pottawatomie-Marshall County line) are in D-2 (severe) drought, and I believe we are roughly 5″ below average.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Looks like Lawrence is still in D3.
Most of WyCo D4
And wetern JoCo D4, but not Olathe….barely

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

HRRR is so full of poop. Far fetched we are getting 2″ of rain ANYWHERE in KC tonight. Not in this LRC. Wow.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Link?

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

Link?

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

comment image

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

PWATs around 1.8 and some strong ascent. It’s not out of the realm of possibility.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Not that I understand the entirety of the LRC, but isn’t that what western Kansas was thinking not all that long ago?

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

The SPC has moved the “slight” area northward to include the southern parts of the KC metro:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

LRC is magic! Take any subtle change, add in seasonal differences and influences, multiply by the EOI and then put on a blindfold & throw darts. IT FITS!!

Tim
Guest
Tim

Well from what I read this morning there is a cap in place until tonight.

Nate
Guest
Nate

No storms in the metro tonight, sorry

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

This comment didn’t age well.

matt
Guest
matt

Their will be Storms some where in area.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

60% chance of thunderstorms this evening, some could be on the strong to severe side.

Translation: We will continue to lower the chance throughout the day to about 20%, and the storms will form about 100-150 miles south of the metro.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary
How many cycles in this years LRC and what is approx. date of the next cycle.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

He explained to you the other day why he deletes you/does not answer your questions. What part of that don’t you get?

Richard
Guest
Richard

Man, what gives with you.
NOYB ! It was not a question that I asked before
Back off jack

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

I missed the part of why he deletes Richard/does not answer. Can someone re-share that?

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Because she asks repetitive questions, Asks in such a way to stir the pot and also asks questions that have either already been answered or have been addressed within the blog. I am simply repeating as requested

Richard
Guest
Richard

JoeK-MMike

Stir the pot ? By asking how many cycles are in this LRC, and when will the next one start.
Not been answered that I can recall. I don’t have total recall like you.
do the search and show me

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

I am not MMike and I simply responded to ClassyCats question and request to share what was stated. To address your accusation that I am MMike, we have completely different communication styles so not sure how you are attempting to piece that one together.

Richard
Guest
Richard

JoeK-MMike
I call BS
Same, exact communication style.
One other thing gives it away.
Give it some thought.

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

“It is actually looking like a candidate for the first front of the fall season” I could never be more excited!

It looks like, as Three7s mentioned the other day, that there will be one more bout of heat around the beginning of September, but after that, we could slowly transition into the fall season. CPC’s Sept outlook has us in “EC” – equal chance – of above/below normal weather. So it looks like Sept will be an average month. And then into October where we learn the next LRC.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary or anyone with a serious answer.
“The next front is much stronger. It is actually looking like a candidate for the first front of the fall season”
First front of the fall season….Would that be this LRC ?

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

🤔
Subtle change or seasonal differences?

I’ll go with current LRC with a subtle seasonal difference.

In a seriousness, the Artic is getting its act back together after collapsing in early May.

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

Yes, the LRC has seasonal differences, and we’re starting to see a subtle fall influence I think.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Trying to understand.
that front, 47 days from Monday, (cycle length ) would be Oct 6.
So would that be the beginnings of the new LRC forming ? I thought this current LRC first day was around Oct 10.
With that in mind, how can the front on Monday be a given to happen, if it would be new LRC.
Thats where I really get confused when it comes to the transition time frame.

matt
Guest
matt

Yes we were put back in Slight Risk but will the Chasers be out today but maybe on Sunday into Monday.

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

Some storms are already forming in Central Kansas and the SPC has expanded the slight risk to include part of the metro area.

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

Same question as Pete as we have outdoor plans and these plans do not allow weather cancellations refunds. We are going out to Independence area between 3pm and 9pm

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Gary what time on Sunday are we thinking that rain could begin?

Mr. Pete