The Same Pattern For Around 50 More Days

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Good morning bloggers,

The same pattern continues. A few of the bloggers wondered yesterday about the LRC and, unfortunately, I must inform everyone that we are in the same pattern and in the seventh LRC cycle. There will be a beginning of the eighth and final cycle of this years pattern, and then we will say goodbye to what I would consider the worst pattern in this long stretch of bad patterns for the Kansas City region.  This pattern produced a whopping 7 inches of snow this winter in around a dozen snowfalls, for an average of around 1/2″ per snowfall which is beyond ridiculous.  This pattern produced a drought that expanded over KC, and then got wiped out over parts of Kansas while we experienced it worsening, even as of today.  The good news:  A new and unique pattern, one that has never happened before (which is what unique means), will set up in early October. Oh, it will evolve slowly in the next six to seven weeks, but this horrible pattern that we have been in will continue until the new pattern takes over.  I call it a horrible pattern for many reasons. For me, the biggest reason is that, as your meteorologist in KC, I have the tough task of explaining over and over again why things are missing us. I would much rather, at least once in a while, have the much more exciting explanation of why things are actually happening. Even in October when we did get some heavier rain, that rain missed many areas in our viewing area.  I will welcome the end of this pattern. There is hope for next winter as there are signs of a weak to moderate El Niño developing.  But, remember El Niño and La Niña are just one influence on the much bigger picture, the LRC.  Now, just be patient as we get through these next few weeks.

This storm system is quite similar to the one that tracked northeast from Kansas into Nebraska in late June.  That storm produced a few heavy thunderstorms, and this one is producing some heavy rain and thunderstorms.

1

The storm in the east has produced wide spread torrential rainfall as they have had some significant flooding once again. This storm, that will be moving over the Iowa/Nebraska border later today, as you can see above, will create some unstable conditions this afternoon and evening.  Some of the latest higher resolution short range models have a few heavy thunderstorms forming near KC this afternoon.  So, there is hope that we will add to the very low rainfall totals that have added up thus far. One thing about this years LRC that is so frustrating; the fact that we have no lack of chances of rain and snow. It is just another fact that the weakest parts of these systems tend to affect our area.

IMG_4716

This picture above shows my rain gauge as of 7:30 AM. About .25″ of that fell in yesterday afternoons thunderstorm. The evening activity was spotty, and only affected a small percentage of our viewing area. This mornings rains were heavier way up north. Let’s see what happens later today.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  One band of rain moving north, and this will rotate around the main storm. A second and third round of showers and thunderstorms will be likely later in the day and tonight.  These other two rounds will still be hit and miss.  High: near 80°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Click on the blog over at Weather2020.com to join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.  Have a great day!

Gary

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Anonymous
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Anonymous

Gary: Happy Wednesday to you sir!! A quick check in from Washington Creek Valley just SW of Lawrence. Wound up with an inch yesterday; combined with last Tuesday that gives me 1.75 inches sin the past 8 days. The way htis summer has gone, that was like the Great Flood!!! LOL I’m very happy and lucky at the moment!! 10% of cycle 7 and cycle 8 is all we have left….maybe this LRC can continue to give us chances and the .30-.50 every 4-5 days and we can limp across the finish line into the next LRC. Whatever the case,… Read more »

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

In my area just north of Liberty, we had close to an inch. These cells are amazing. You go one half mile down the road and its a different result. According to stormwatch, they only had about .6″ For once the soil is still wet a day after the rain event. The grass I do have is greening up. Hope everyone gets in the action in the next few opportunities.

Nate
Guest
Nate

Wasn’t enough to clean the algae off my pond…drought and weather manipulation ops are still on

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

1.1″ here in Independence!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

So far I’ve measured a half inch here at Somerset and mission road. Enough to keep things green I guess.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Many have compared this year to 2012, so I checked my records. The drought of 2012 didn’t hit here until mid-June, and we got only 1.85″ of rain between June 15th & August 24th, which is a critical period for soybean development. The plants drop blossoms and pods during heat & drought stress, and rain came too late to overcome the damage. That year we had two fields of equal size; the relatively flat field yielded 37 bushels/acre, and the one with a gradual west facing slope yielded only 20 bu/ac, for an overall yield of 28.5 bu/ac. The 2012… Read more »

Michael Garner
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Michael Garner

Man that downpour may have only lasted 10 min but it sure caused some quick build of water on the streets. May not be a drought buster but is definitely a nice rainy day

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Sitting at .25″ so far. Just a couple of days ago, pretty much everyone was talking, again, about how this could be a widespread event and all the models were showing it and blah blah blah. Once again, the models/forecasts are showing to be totally unreliable more than a few hours out. The LRC is fascinating, but it would be nice to get a short-term forecast correct more than 8 hours out.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Finally a nice rain !

Richard
Guest
Richard

Not looking good for our winter IF you believe the Euro

“The latest ECMWF seasonal guidance indicates above normal snowfall across the Northeast for 2/3rds of winter 2018-19 [Dec, Feb] & a snow shortage for the Northwest. Jan looks like the best month for the Rockies”

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1029368111286300672?s=20

Three7
Guest
Three7

Normally, I’d side with Gary about the western trough in an El Nino, but I just don’t believe this will be a typical El Nino. If it’s central based, that forecast from the EURO would be favored, though we still gotta see how the LRC shakes out.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

This would verify the other guy with the pattern has already established. The areas with below normal precip look identical to our current drought monitor.

Troy
Guest
Troy

I ended up with 2.80 from this storm here in RP county without a single lightning strike. At times it was raining nearly 2″ per hour but it was very small drops. How often do we have a low move in from the South in August? I can’t remember this type of system in the summer.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Hopefully the sun helps destabilize the atmosphere and this next wave can build a bit, because it looks like garbage right now.

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

Today’s rain here is what makes this a weird drought. To be in an severe on the edge of extreme drought but yet have had rains like today. To few to many obviously but so many times in these droughts you don’t even get these kinds of rains. Thankful for every .10 or more.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Amen! That’s about what it’s been like for my area, just enough to keep everything going.

Jeff
Guest

Looking at the train camp pictures from this morning’s Chiefs practice. Looks like St Joe got what they were hoping for finally. The field was completely swamped.

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

Pretty good rain here in Leavenworth

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

The GFS has temps in 70s and lows in 50s to end August. Maybe we are done with the intense heat as September rolls around. Meteorological fall begins on Sept 1, so we aren’t far away from a pattern change.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Sept. can be hot, sometimes brutally so, so reaching meteorological fall doesn’t mean were out of the heat woods yet.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Sept. can be hot, sometimes brutally so. Reaching meteorological fall doesn’t mean we’re out of the heat woods yet. We’re also fast approaching verification (or not) time for the “Sept 2018 Gulf Hurricane”. First signs of this should start showing up in a few days if it’s going to happen at all. Don’t want to hear about Sahara dust either if it doesn’t verify. That should have no affect on a Gulf forming tropical system.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

*effect

JoeK
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JoeK

LYITC41,

According to NOAA, it can and does so yes, according to the experts, it is a rare event and has a significant impact on tropical developement

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

For those curious I will repost what I did a couple days ago. Predictions used for 66048. Actual numbers based upon what KCI reported and will use those numbers as KCI isn’t too far from 66048 and numbers should be fairly similar. These were the predictions from June 5, 2018. June 17 thru June 23. 79 predicted high/actual average high was 83. Off by 3, I would say that’s good. June 24 thru June 30. 86 predicted high/actual average high was 91. Off by 5. I would say not bad, warmer than predicted but not bad. July 1 thru July… Read more »

Nate
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Nate

Temps are easy to predict, that’s not an issue

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

If easy then everyone will nail it even 6 weeks out. I have a decent grade even with some weeks off by 8 or more degrees. So I wouldn’t say it’s easy. But then again that’s just my opinion.

JoeK
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JoeK

Nate,

Wait, what? Temps are as difficult to predict as precipitation/amounts. Is this another tongue-in-cheek CIA weather manipulation post?

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

Exactly I’ve seen a temp forecast for 3 days out bust badly. Prediction of future is never easy, LRC or no LRC

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The average high temperature for August 14th in this general area is 89°, and it drops to 88° on the 20th. WeatherUnderground’s 10-day forecast shows we’ll be cooler than those averages.
It is currently 69° here (25 miles north of Manhattan), and the high is predicted to be 78° today, 85° Wednesday, 88° Thursday, 87° Friday, 88° Saturday, 84° Sunday, 82° Monday, 81° Tuesday, 83° Wednesday and 84° Thursday.

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

KC Jones not sure why you are posting that? Asking with no attitude attached just genuinely asking. Thanks

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

Never mind I didn’t read fully your post, it appears you are saying a forecast is showing the potential to be below normal. Not by huge amounts but I’ll always take below average temps with above average precipitation especially in the winter, if it’s snow for sure!

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

Poured out exactly 1.00″ from my rain gauge just now. Hoping for more later today

Richard
Guest
Richard

Wow all the talk about Heady. And the posts remain.
Mine ? Gone again

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

LRC

Lonely
Richard
Complains

Brian
Guest
Brian

You’ve got me rollin Tdogg 🤣

Richard
Guest
Richard

Yeah, he is kind of growing on me too.
Tdogg has a way of doing that 🤣

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Now we have 0.95″ in the rain gauge, and it looks like that will be all for awhile.

MMike
Guest
MMike

The question of the day, do you really need a degree to forecast the weather?? I don’t think so…. The computers give you all that you need to make a reasonable forecast for today, tomorrow and the next 7-10 days. Now, after digesting the computer data and the trends, one would just need to analyze the surface set-ups, radar trends and use a bit of experience to make an accurate forecast. For example, today, mostly cloudy with some breaks in the clouds, some showers this morning and a potential of thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. High temps in the… Read more »

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

If you were depending on the models for later in the week, you are going to be set up for failure!

MMike
Guest
MMike

LYITC41,

Maybe, but how to gauge failure? Got to 90 instead of 85, rained .35 inches instead of 1.00 inch.

The data is consistent with seasonal temps and several chances of rain in our area between now and early next week.

The data 5 days ago showed rain and thunderstorm in the area early this week, here we are and showers and thunderstorms have occurred.

ClassyCat…Hello

No, I just looked at the NAM, GFS, EURO and blended a forecast.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Hear you, hope you do well.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

You analyzing data sets, or reading already interpreted data sets…..i.e. a forecast already produced?

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

Gary, what effect does the upcoming solar minimum have on our winter? Analogs from solar minimum years have been cold. Example, 2009 was when KC recorded 44 inches of snow. Does this have any correlation?

CC
Guest
CC

Gary,

Would you say we are done with the heat or do you see any more warm ups coming

Three7
Guest
Three7

I’m not Gary, but there should be another warm-up coming towards early September. It shouldn’t be nearly as bad as the previous ones, since the sun angle will be lower and the jet stream will be a bit stronger.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

While I agree with Gary about when the pattern actually sets, there is in reality small, subtle differences in the northern latitudes and tropics. It’s almost like the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end. It may very get even more discombobulated before a repeating rhythms becomes established, which usually has always worked out to the October time frame. Each and every year is different and yes, I agree there is something about transition months, again, then end of the beginning or beginning of the end, however you want to look at it 🤪 lol

Brad
Guest
Brad

Notice how many tropical storms and hurricanes we has so far this season, El Niño some some impact on the tropics as well to as we haven’t seen very much hurricanes or tropical storms in the Atlantic or Gulf Of Mexico this year. Now pacific hurricane season maybe a different story as its been quite Active over there in recent days.

Ben
Guest
Ben

Gary didn’t this exact thing happen in the last cycle in late June? A whole bunch of hype for North MO and the heavy rain shifts west and north in to Kansas and Nebraska. That’s the way I remember it anyway

Three7
Guest
Three7

The El Nino looks like it will be a modoki or central based El Nino. Typically that means cold and snowy in the northeast, with cooler and wetter conditions along the east coast down into the gulf. I know it’s an influence, but if that rings true, it could just be another year with a trough over the eastern part of the nation and with our area under another stupid ridge.

I hope it doesn’t happen.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I’ll repeat what I just posted in the old blog … I think Doug Heady is making some sly references to Gary in his latest blog out today: http://weather.koamtv.com/2018/08/14/tuesday-morning-blog-more-showers-and-thunderstorms-heady-pattern-update-your-long-range-forecast/ “So why don’t they match perfectly? The Heady Pattern sets up each and every fall, the 3rd week of September. Now the cycle starts during the summer actually during the old pattern. It can start as early as late May and as late as early September. Last years 47 day cycle started in early August. This years cycle started in early June. This means we have already gone through a full… Read more »