Hazy Sky and Increasing Rain Chances

/Hazy Sky and Increasing Rain Chances

Hazy Sky and Increasing Rain Chances

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are following two main weather events today. The first is the haze in the sky and the second is the chance of rain early next week.

The haze is smoke from the wildfires in California combined with smoke from fires in western Canada.

Here is a visible satellite image from 7 PM Friday. The fuzzy items are clearly smoke in the sky. You can see the monsoon thunderstorms embedded in the smoke.

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Here is a look at the satellite from 7 PM Friday in the middle of the USA. You can see the smoke, rather thick, from northwest Kansas to Minnesota. Minneapolis had air quality warnings.

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How is that smoke from western North America getting to the middle of the USA? The image below shows the explanation. It is the upper level flow. An anticyclone, also called and upper level high or “heat wave creating machine”, is located over the northern Rockies. The flow around the high is clockwise. So, the smoke tracks from the western USA, north to western Canada where it combines with more smoke from the wildfires in western Canada. The smoke then turns east into central Canada then south into the northern USA. The flow keeps the smoke drifting south into Kansas and Missouri. This flow will persist all weekend.

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Where is the smoke Saturday morning? It was located from northern Kansas to northern Missouri, northward into Canada. It does not look as thick, since the satellite is not picking it up as well due to the sun not being high enough in the sky. It is drifting south about 10-20 miles per hour and will arrive in KC by afternoon. It will likely be around all weekend, so this evening the sunset may have an interesting reddish hue.

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Now lets turn our attention to the chance of rain. The main jet stream is flowing well to the north across Canada, but does dip south over the eastern USA. The systems that brought our scattered downpours Thursday and Friday drifted south and are combining to form an upper low over Texas.

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The upper low will become more defined Sunday as it drifts northwest. There will be northward drifting areas of rain and thunderstorms across southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

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The upper low on Monday is forecast to be in Kansas, by all models. This would likely bring a larger area of rain and thunderstorms to eastern Kansas and western Missouri Monday into Tuesday.

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This is the rainfall forecast for today through Tuesday. The rain in our area does not start until Monday, but my goodness, this is a sight for sore eyes.

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When we zoom in you can see mostly consistent rainfall totals from Maryville, MO to Pleasanton, KS, east to Sedalia, MO and west to Emporia, KS.

We have had rainfall events where all locations get rain this season. But, some get 0.01″, 0.50″, 2.00″-4.00″ and everything in between. Also, the heavier amounts are in the minority. This is different, where all locations receive at least 0.40″-0.50″.

If this pans out, it will not end the drought, it will not even dent the drought, but is is a step in the right direction. It would need to be followed by more events. There actually are more chances next week, but let’s just get this first one under our belt.  This is still a slam dunk. As we know it is 36-48 hours away. So, we will check in Sunday and hope the data remains consistent.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

2018-08-12T08:02:10+00:00August 11th, 2018|General|25 Comments

25 Comments

  1. Snow Miser August 11, 2018 at 10:05 am - Reply

    I thought I smelled smoke last night. Wasn’t sure if it was from fireworks they did at a nearby high school or if it was stuff wafting over from California.

    Latest GFS has something like 8 inches of rain over the metro the next 2+ weeks:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018081106/gfs_apcpn_scus_52.png

  2. Stl78(winon,mn) August 11, 2018 at 10:18 am - Reply

    U can definitely see the smoke/haze here in Minnesota

  3. Heat Miser August 11, 2018 at 12:16 pm - Reply

    TRUMP

    • REAL HUMEDUDE August 11, 2018 at 1:00 pm - Reply

      Thanks for identifying yourself as a fool
      1)Collusion….he admitted Tower meeting was to get dirt on Hillary
      It was conspiracy to defraud United States, it was a crime and he is guilty
      2)Obstruction of justice….he then committed more crimes to hide his first crime. So yeah, he’s a criminal
      3)Tariffs ….. he is currently setting stage for global economic recession or worse.
      3) half his supporters believe Q is actually real. Nuff’ said, you believe that I have some Kool Aid for you

      • REAL HUMEDUDE August 11, 2018 at 1:01 pm - Reply

        I can’t count, I lost track of my points since he has committed too many crimes now to keep them straight.

        • Kurt August 11, 2018 at 2:06 pm - Reply

          You’re rant isn’t appropriate for this blog and I don’t care what you think. My 401K is growing and corporation profits are up fir the most part, unemployment is low. Try finding a non dirty politicalian that you support Real humedude, I have little respect for any of them because the vast majority are bought and paid for

          Exactly, how was Hilary going to help you out Real? Since we all seem to differ on opinion and I’m a conservative, please refrain from your rants

        • Blue Flash August 11, 2018 at 3:52 pm - Reply

          Keep political garbage off this blog please!

        • Bluetooth August 11, 2018 at 5:48 pm - Reply

          And the HRC colluding with Christopher Steele and Fusion GPS to get info on Trump isn’t a crime? Besides, this isn’t a political board.

      • JoeK August 11, 2018 at 3:52 pm - Reply

        Kurt,

        Well said. Watching too much Media without fact checking is obviously bad for Humes health. Politicians are crooked and not working for the people,by the people, no matter what party they belong to. Bottom line is the economy is strong, life is good unless you soak up every ounce of media BS that is put out everyday

        • Bluetooth August 11, 2018 at 5:50 pm - Reply

          It’s called Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS). My 25 year old niece has it real bad…can’t even reason with her on the subject…

          • JoeK August 11, 2018 at 8:50 pm - Reply

            Bluetooth,

            Will be interesting to see how the solar minimum impacts the weather in the near future. As you know, I am starting to lean towards a cooling cycle and have been trying to spend time studying the theory. So much to analyze between it and the current climate change theory

            • Bluetooth August 11, 2018 at 9:38 pm - Reply

              For us, I am definitely expecting a cooler pattern, especially in the winter months. One question that I have is will it be dryer? If so, we may already be seeing this cooler and dryer pattern.

      • Tdogg August 11, 2018 at 5:06 pm - Reply

        Hume is your typical Johnson county liberal pretending to farm….

        • JoeK August 11, 2018 at 8:48 pm - Reply

          Tdogg,

          Now that is funny!

      • KS Jones August 11, 2018 at 7:33 pm - Reply

        Hume, It’s no use trying to reason with that crowd. As Trump said, he could murder an innocent bystander on the streets of New York and his ilk would still stand behind him waving the flag and cheering him on.

         “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.” -Trump, January 23, 2016

        • Snow Miser August 11, 2018 at 8:00 pm - Reply

          Anybody who, out of nowhere, shouts “TRUMP” in a blog about the weather, is clearly a member of the Trump Cult.

          • Richard August 12, 2018 at 4:40 pm - Reply

            That’s what I wondered.
            Where the HELL did that TRUMP comment from Heat Miser came from !??
            I windered if something had been deleted.
            I see no correlation to Trump in anything posted before Heats out of the blue comment.
            I guess Heat was bored so he wanted to start something.

  4. Tdogg August 11, 2018 at 12:17 pm - Reply

    Driving around town today and this has to be the smokiest drought ever lmao!

    • Lary Gezak August 11, 2018 at 1:57 pm - Reply

      You’re old enough to drive?

    • JoeK August 11, 2018 at 3:55 pm - Reply

      Tdogg,

      I actually think you are rather funny and enjoy your humor on the blog, so if you are mocking me, it actually doesn’t bother me as what I stated regarding is factual and can be verifies by the push of a few buttons on your computer. Jeff actually addressed above what I was stating yesterday, that many areas have received quite a bot of rain while others haven’t. it really is a strange drought as it is so sporadic

      • JoeK August 11, 2018 at 3:57 pm - Reply

        Typed too fast…….Regarding the drought and Verified

  5. Nick August 11, 2018 at 4:39 pm - Reply

    Well the smoke front has come, lol, ( had this last summer too). Looking forward to the possiblity that we MIGHT be turning a corner on the drought. can’t wait for the long term long wave bubble of “ridgyness” near us to be gone… because ALL bubles eventually burst… it’s just a matter of time ;).

  6. Michael Garner August 11, 2018 at 6:22 pm - Reply

    Predictions used for 66048. Actual numbers based upon what KCI reported and will use those numbers as KCI isn’t too far from 66048 and numbers should be fairly similar.
    These were the predictions from June 5, 2018.

    June 17 thru June 23. 79 predicted high/actual average high was 83. Off by 3, I would say that’s good.

    June 24 thru June 30. 86 predicted high/actual average high was 91. Off by 5. I would say not bad, warmer than predicted but not bad.

    July 1 thru July 7. 82 predicted high/actual average high was 90. Off by 8. I would say that’s off by a good amount. Way warmer than prediction.

    July 8 thru July 14. 83 predicted high/actual average high was 96. Off by 13. I would say really off by a wide margin. Prediction was for a way cooler week and this ended up being one of the hottest weeks this summer.

    July 15 thru July 21. 94 predicted high/actual average high was 90. Off by 4. I would say not bad.

    July 22 thru July 28. 89 predicted high/actual average high was 86. Off by 3. I would say good again.

    July 29–84 predicted high/actual average high was 87. Off by 3 I would say good.

    August 5 thru August 11. Forecast was changed from the prediction of 89 for the average high down to 84. Turns out the original prediction from June 5th would have been closer to what actually happened, average high ended up being 92. So with what the current prediction that’s an 8 degree error unless one says the original prediction was more accurate.

    So what’s the point of all this. It would appear according to the June 5 predictions for 8 weeks starting June 17, 3 weeks were only off by 3 degrees; 2 off by 4-5 degrees; and 3 weeks off by 8 degrees or more.
    So if I was to give a grade I would say a solid B? Am I fair with this grade I think so. It could have been a B+ if this last week (current week) wasn’t changed form the original prediction on June 5.
    So all in all I would say the “LRC” did well.

    Can’t grade precipitation forecast as there really isn’t any, like at least how a temperature prediction. At least no amounts predicted. Unless I missed a summer forecast for precipitation I would guess that precipitation was predicted to be below average, especially when we didn’t get the 10 inches that Gary thought we would get in May and June .

    Will be interesting to see if the “score” can continue to hold a “B” over the next several weeks or will the current LRC start to fade to much.

    Must say I’m hoping the predictions starting next week thru September 16th or off and end up being cooler than what it is showing, because of now it looks like several more weeks of above average temps.

    If my math is wrong then I guess ignore this very long post. If my understanding is wrong regarding the LRC 1 weather app forecast then I guess I will go back to school and learn what the forecasted highs and lows mean when I put in my zip code. Have a great night

  7. Mr. Pete August 11, 2018 at 11:35 pm - Reply

    I’ll believe this Monday/ Tuesday rain when I see it. Heat – That was funny!!!! Lol

  8. WeathermanKumke August 12, 2018 at 1:14 am - Reply

    JoCo Express Monday into Tuesday. It will be so

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