Weird System to Watch

/Weird System to Watch

Weird System to Watch

Good Wednesday bloggers,

The weather forecast through Monday is not too difficult. Partly to mostly sunny, highs around 90, lows 65-70 with one slight chance of rain. The one chance is Friday as a weak cold front drifts south.

The forecast for next Tuesday-Thursday is a bit more interesting as we will track two features. The first one is a weird system forming in the southwest Plains and the second is a cold front with a system coming in from the northwest.

Today we had a very weak disturbance drift south and it generated some very small, pulsing downpours in eastern Kansas. They are drifting south and may last until 10 PM. These may be the world’s smallest thunderstorms.


The next chance for a few thunderstorms is on Friday as a weak cold front drifts south. I may have been generous in calling this a cold front.  It is more likely a surface trough as there is really no temperature change behind this alleged front.

Blog 2 FINAL

The feature that has a chance to bring us our next chance of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms is a weird upper low forming in the southwest Plains over the weekend. This data is from the 18Z NAM, and as I am writing this blog, the 18Z GFS is showing this feature develop over the weekend. Next Tuesday-Thursday we will see this low head northeast bringing an increased chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. If it wanted to, it could be a widespread rain event. But, we know better. The only way we go for a widespread event is if we see evidence of it forming the day of the chance of rain. This is still the same ridiculous weather pattern.

Blog 1 FINAL

Have a great night and we will see how the new data trends with this next, weird system.

Jeff Penner

2018-08-10T08:50:27+00:00August 8th, 2018|General|21 Comments


  1. REAL HUMEDUDE August 8, 2018 at 6:30 pm - Reply

    Thanks Jeff, great blog. I love your cynical approach to this pattern, it really is that easy to know it won’t be a widespread heavy rain when you know the LRC. I have that same sense when I see these chances show up, I just try to temper my expectations

  2. Nate August 8, 2018 at 8:08 pm - Reply

    I like Jeff’s writeups

  3. LYITC41 August 9, 2018 at 6:35 am - Reply

    Regarding yesterdays discussion about wind farms, the man is entitled to his opinion and anyone that wants to believe that theory is entitled to that as well. Nothing I say is going to dispossess him of his belief in that theory and that’s fine too, There is such a thing as bad science and all the posted articles, papers etc. do not make this a viable theory. The wind farms are here to stay and even if they did affect the (very local) wx the effect would be negligible and not enough to cause their discontinuation. No apologies forthcoming from here.

  4. Richard August 9, 2018 at 11:45 am - Reply

    What about Geoengineering and chemtrails affecting the weather. Thoughts ?
    Is it propaganda, conspiracy theories ?

    • REAL HUMEDUDE August 9, 2018 at 12:04 pm - Reply

      Chemtrails….were do I begin. Bogus nonsense, so many different ways its concocted BS. While cloud seeding is possible, they have had very little luck getting it to work on any large scale. I think they were able to generate a small shower. A jet contrail is just condensed jet vapor, it’s easily explained but so many won’t accept that the most logical answer is the actual truth more often than not.

      • LYITC41 August 9, 2018 at 1:11 pm - Reply

        As I said on here quite awhile back there is a BS conspiracy theory out there for everyone, if you’re bored with your life just pick one and run with it. It has always amazed me how people like Alex Jones and the joke he runs do so well, there must be a lot of really bored people out there. Then there’s this Qanon thing, hard to believe how many desperately stupid people there are but they’re entitled to believe anything they want as long as they’re not hurting anyone else.

        • REAL HUMEDUDE August 9, 2018 at 1:20 pm - Reply

          The thing is, this “Q” thing has a potential to hurt people, Alot of people. It’s a malicious conspiracy designed to further the divide amongst us. I thought only idiots would believe it, but I was mistaken. I know a few fairly intelligent people that are bought in. Many don’t fully understand the depth of the Q conspiracy either, it’s taking conservative circles by storm. And the moderate conservatives are too scared to tell the Q followers they are batshit crazy, but they fall into line when push comes to shove. Only matter of time before DT tweets about Q and lends it as much credibility as he can muster, now that Mueller is circling the wagons. Did I digress?
          How bout them pop up storms!?!

          • LYITC41 August 9, 2018 at 2:06 pm - Reply

            Hope you get one or more!

          • Nate August 9, 2018 at 3:26 pm - Reply

            I’m sort of a right wing reactionary and never heard of the Q Conspiracy, I had to google it. That’s limited to that Reddit crowd, the same ones going bonkers about the Pedophile conspiracy….not connected to conservationism at all unless you connect Antifa with the Democratic Party

    • Richard August 9, 2018 at 4:44 pm - Reply

      I do not fall into those theories at all. Bogus BS imo.
      I was just asking what others think.
      I briefly heard a bit of a radio show last night. Quickly turned him off.
      It was Ground Zero the guy is Clyde Lewis. Total conspiracy theorist !! Talking about geoengineering on the east coast, AND he firmly believes the wildfires in CA are purposely caused by it. “The fires are burning too hot to be natural….” said metal on cars are melting and the fires world wide, etc, all from geoengineering, government, military lasers !!
      Thats when I bolted ! Scary he seems to have a following !!

  5. f00dl3 August 9, 2018 at 11:53 am - Reply

    Extreme drought now expanding.

  6. NoBeachHere August 9, 2018 at 12:37 pm - Reply

    Looking south and west,
    Seems to be decent clouds
    Developing. I hope they get some body a nice drink if they can form into something.

  7. Tim August 9, 2018 at 1:06 pm - Reply

    I’m near Raymore and hearing thunder, but nothing on radar?

    • REAL HUMEDUDE August 9, 2018 at 1:11 pm - Reply

      The radar I’m seeing is lighting up?
      Nice cell just north of Raymore, headed south slowly. It’s the storm lottery today, totally random and you need some luck

    • Snow Miser August 9, 2018 at 1:56 pm - Reply

      If this line of storms was just 10 miles to the north a decent chunk of the metro could get some rain.

  8. Farmgirl August 9, 2018 at 2:16 pm - Reply

    Playing the rain shower lottery. Hedging a bet that the little, lonely cell in southern Miami county might pass over my farm.

  9. terry August 9, 2018 at 2:24 pm - Reply

    Very heavy rain over KCK

  10. Mr. Pete August 9, 2018 at 3:22 pm - Reply

    We had a heavy rain shower here in Prairie Village. Picked up about a tenth of a inch real quick.

  11. Heat Miser August 9, 2018 at 3:45 pm - Reply blog today?

    Thanks in part to a developing El Niño, federal forecasters said a “below-normal” Atlantic hurricane season is most likely, in an updated prediction released Thursday.

    • Richard August 9, 2018 at 4:47 pm - Reply

      See……Heat is always the one going “hmmm…no blog today?”

  12. Nate August 9, 2018 at 4:55 pm - Reply

    Hoping for a big nasty 45 minute storm to wash all of this algae out of my pond

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