A Smattering of Rain

/A Smattering of Rain

A Smattering of Rain

Good Sunday bloggers,

We finally have a term for the rainfall pattern this spring and summer, a “smattering.” Before we take a look at the data for the one rain chance during the next 7 days, let’s look at some 2018 rainfall totals from around the area.

Here is the official rainfall total for Kansas City. It is taken at KCI and is most misleading. It shows that we are about 4″ below average rainfall. This is due to a freakish 3.29″ rain event on July 18th. A thin, small band of very heavy downpours stalled right over southern Platte county. There are a few locations around KC with this type of rainfall total, especially in Overland Park. Otherwise, most locations are not even close. See below.

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Olathe is 11″ below average.

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St. Joseph is getting close to a foot below average for the year with a little over 11″ of rain.

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Lawrence is also getting close to a foot below average rainfall.

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What we need to get rid of the drought is 5″-10″ of rain over a few weeks in all locations. What is in the forecast for this week, is not that.

SUNDAY: Today will be hot and humid with a breeze to help a bit. The front that will bring our next rain chance is sitting in Nebraska.

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SUNDAY NIGHT: Thunderstorms will light up in to a widespread event across Nebraska and Iowa where there is no drought at all. Our area will stay dry and mild with lows mostly in the 70s.

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MONDAY: The thunderstorms along I-80 will track east as the cold front sags south. We will have another hot and dry day with highs 95°-100°.

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MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING: The front will be drifting south across the area as disturbances move in from the west. This will create areas of rain and thunderstorms, but not all locations will see decent rain. Yes, here we go again.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: If you do not get the rain, at least all locations will see highs in the low to mid 80s. Some locations may stay in the 70s.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY: This data has the heaviest rain along I-70 and across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. The location of the heavier rain could end up anywhere, meaning 50-100 miles farther north or south. It depends on the exact track of the thunderstorms. This is the problem. Instead of having to say the heaviest rain could end up anywhere, it needs to be EVERYWHERE! Could this set up bring a widespread rain event? Sure, there are some models doing that. But, we are very hesitant to go for a widespread event until we see exactly how this is going to evolve. Especially, since we have seen zero widespread rain events this spring and summer.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

2018-08-06T16:12:42+00:00August 5th, 2018|General|23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Mr. Pete August 5, 2018 at 8:42 am - Reply

    ☹️

    • Heat Miser August 5, 2018 at 10:03 am - Reply

      Ohhhh….25-2 inches in Lawrence? That would be cool…. :-O

  2. Trevor August 5, 2018 at 9:48 am - Reply

    So you’re saying there’s a chance!

  3. Nate August 5, 2018 at 10:19 am - Reply

    Most storms coming from the NW are worthless, at least in southern metro

  4. sedsinkc August 5, 2018 at 4:20 pm - Reply

    At my location in the Northland about 10 mlles SE of KCI and 5 miles N of the downtown airport, I’ve had a total of 14.66 inches of precipitation this year after yesterday late afternoon’s 0.06 inches.

  5. Richard August 5, 2018 at 4:58 pm - Reply

    NWS says
    “Much needed rain begins to move into the area from north to south tonight. The progression southward will be slow, but by Monday evening most of the area should see some rain. Better chance for stronger storms mainly north of I-70. 40-50 mph winds and small hail possible.”

    Their graphic shows JoCo in on the action by Mon afternoon.

    God its hot out there today. Will August turn out hotter than July ?
    Have one robin just sitting in birdbath not moving at all in 30 min ! Wonder if it is sick. Not drinking, not splashing. Just sitting there.

    • Tdogg August 5, 2018 at 7:52 pm - Reply

      Richard you need to join a dating site.

      • Richard August 5, 2018 at 8:10 pm - Reply

        I am sure you know some good sites.
        10-20 yrs ago I might have asked you to meet up with me.
        But I am too old now, and I don’t think you are my type.
        Get along little doggy.

        Jackass

        • Tdogg August 6, 2018 at 8:12 am - Reply

          Umm no Richard I’m not like that.

    • LYITC41 August 6, 2018 at 6:24 am - Reply

      I’m sure he was sick, Brought on by a combination of heat, drought, no snow and wind farms.

  6. Snow Miser August 5, 2018 at 6:34 pm - Reply

    My cat is absolutely loving this hot weather. Glad *somebody* is liking it!

    • Heat Miser August 5, 2018 at 10:51 pm - Reply

      lol…how on earth can you tell that he’s loving it? Did he tell you?

      • Snow Miser August 6, 2018 at 8:16 am - Reply

        Because she wants to go outside much more than in cooler weather, and then spends hours hanging out beneath a stool I have next to my back door. If she didn’t like it, she wouldn’t do it.

  7. Lary Gezak August 6, 2018 at 8:54 am - Reply

    How much stock should we put into the CPC’s CFSv2 monthly climate forecasts? They release every morning for the following month, and basically have the entire US and Canada forecast to be well above average in temps. I’m not sure that’s even close to accurate.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201809.gif

    • Three7 August 6, 2018 at 8:59 am - Reply

      I was thinking we’d be a bit cooler around here as we’d go into the cooler part of the pattern that we had in July, but as for everywhere else, not sure.

  8. Larry August 6, 2018 at 10:40 am - Reply

    Here’s an updated precipitation forecast: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif?1533569850814

    • REAL HUMEDUDE August 6, 2018 at 11:23 am - Reply

      That looks terrible for me!
      Good thing those have been awful this year forecasting precip , wouldn’t be surprised if it was off by wide margins

  9. Richard August 6, 2018 at 11:40 am - Reply

    So just noticed Jeff said “have a good week.”
    Guess he’s done for the week.
    Maybe Gary will blog from Hawaii. But with 5 hr time diff…
    Hurricane Hector must be getting close ?

    • LYITC41 August 6, 2018 at 12:58 pm - Reply

      For your sake I hope he’s not . What will you do?

      • JoeK August 6, 2018 at 2:56 pm - Reply

        LMAO

  10. REAL HUMEDUDE August 6, 2018 at 11:59 am - Reply

    I think he just said that since it was start to a new week, I’m sure he will try to put out a couple blogs while Gary is hard at work monitoring the hurricane lol. Gary’s vacations make me realize how little off time i get……I haven’t had a real Vacation for 6 years. Can’t afford the time off, it’s a rat race out there folks. Have a good week everybody

  11. Jason August 6, 2018 at 2:34 pm - Reply

    My “forecast”: Minimal chance for rain Monday night into Tuesday. Some locations will receive some beneficial rain, and some will receive no rain at all. Upper 80’s to low 90’s the rest of the week. Copy and Paste. Terrible cycle we are in. The drought worsens.

  12. Jordan August 6, 2018 at 4:21 pm - Reply

    Just released the new blog on the KSHB website. The forecast has the rain widely scattered now, just like every other storm. The models just cannot figure this pattern out more than 12-24 hours before a forecasted rain event.

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