One Main Rain Chance

/One Main Rain Chance

One Main Rain Chance

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are tracking a weak system today that will bring clouds and a few showers. Then, a cold front and system move through Monday-Tuesday. These features will generate showers and thunderstorms, but I am sure you can guess the most likely scenario.

Let’s take a look at how the drought has evolved since May 1st.

The drought on May 1st was quite significant from southwest Kansas and points to the southwest. We were abnormally dry to moderate drought, but nothing a good rain or two couldn’t wipe out.


Well, here we sit in early August and we are still waiting for that good rain or two, so now look at the drought. It is quite interesting. The drought has vanished from the southwest Plains as there has been many rounds of great rain during the last couple of months. Our drought has really intensified. There are two odd things about this drought. One, is that even though the drought has become more intense, it really has not expanded much. Usually droughts intensify and expand. Second, the exceptional drought in the southwest Plains has ended. Usually when a drought ends there during the summer, we are not in a drought. And, especially when there is no drought to the east. This is a regional drought that is getting worse, again odd.


We have one main rain chance the next 7 days, and that occurs Monday into Tuesday. Let’s go through the forecast today through Tuesday. There is some heat in there as well.

SATURDAY: A weak disturbance will bring high and mid level clouds along with a few showers and possibly one or two small thunderstorms. Rainfall will be trace to 0.10″. Temperatures will drop to the upper 70s and low 80s if you receive a shower, otherwise highs will reach around 90°.


SUNDAY: The heat will intensify as highs climb into the mid and possibly upper 90s. The humidity will increase as well, but at least there will be a breeze to take the edge off. The front in Nebraska will start to move south Sunday night.


MONDAY: This looks like the hottest day of the week, out ahead of the front. Highs will reach 95° to 100° with a decent amount of humidity. There will be less wind as well.


MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: Here we go again. The cold front is moving south and it looks like the best chance of widespread rain will be across western Kansas and Illinois. Tuesday will see the thunderstorms increase across southeast Kansas and southern Missouri while our region is left with a smattering of rain. Yes, smattering is the new term until we can see evidence of a major rain event.


RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY: This is pretty much a visual representation of the term smattering. A few locations will see 0.25″ to 2″ while most will see none to 0.25″. The exact locations of the 0.25″ to 2″ rainfall is still not set in stone, but the bottom line, it is a smattering.


Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

2018-08-05T10:28:23+00:00August 4th, 2018|General|13 Comments


  1. Mr. Pete August 4, 2018 at 10:33 am - Reply


    • Heat Miser August 4, 2018 at 10:42 am - Reply


  2. Ben August 4, 2018 at 2:11 pm - Reply

    Chillicothe got 2 inches of rain on June 19. That’s 48 days ago on Monday or the length of the LRC. Will it happen again????

  3. j-ox August 4, 2018 at 3:26 pm - Reply

    June 20th = last ‘decent’ rain in NW Lawrence = 1.6″. Not much since.

  4. MattinLeavenworth August 4, 2018 at 3:44 pm - Reply

    Light to Medium rainfall coming down here. Ground is absorbing it very rapidly.

  5. Richard August 4, 2018 at 4:12 pm - Reply

    Is it raining in Lawrence ??
    Looks like it in radar.
    Come on rain !

  6. Snow Miser August 4, 2018 at 4:35 pm - Reply

    It’s going poof.

  7. LB August 4, 2018 at 5:40 pm - Reply

    it is kinda awesome to see how many different ways rain can come here to die. You watch radar and you know the second it hits the joco line it is gonna die! Don’t you wish you could have that kinda accuracy as a meteorologist! I was out grilling and saw the western bank forming, wife said you better watch it, it look’s like rain. I said no worries at all with 100% confidence. We should all rejoice in knowing exactly what it is going to do. This is weather forecasting at it’s best

  8. Richard August 4, 2018 at 5:58 pm - Reply

    While Gary takes a photo of a morning rainbow on Kauai, (facebook) and waits to see if hurricane Hector will affect the island, we still sit high and bone dry.
    Wonder if he used the LRC to plan his vacation. Did he know about Hector months ago ?
    When is that Florida hurricane due ….Sept 1 ?

  9. Weatherby Tom August 4, 2018 at 6:20 pm - Reply

    Very nice downpour here at Weatherby Lake, not a huge amount but I’ll take it considering the chances were what? 10 – 15% today?

  10. Nick August 4, 2018 at 6:31 pm - Reply

    Breezy and sprinkles in St. Joe earlier, now breezy with sun. Well just about 8 more weeks and at least this LRC will be gone. hopefully the next one will be better, lol.

  11. MattinLeavenworth August 4, 2018 at 6:31 pm - Reply

    73 degrees out in the country right now after the rain. Feels amazing outside.

  12. MattinLeavenworth August 4, 2018 at 6:34 pm - Reply

    Correction 77 degrees

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