Over 4″ Of Rain & It’s Still Dry?

/Over 4″ Of Rain & It’s Still Dry?

Over 4″ Of Rain & It’s Still Dry?

Good morning bloggers,

The new drought monitor will come out this morning from the Climate Prediction Center.  It is likely to only change slightly as there are still some spots that keep getting missed.  I measured 3.21″ of rain at my house in Overland Park over the past two days. There was over 4″ of rain over parts of the south KC metro area, while at the same time there was less than 0.50″ in a few others only five to ten miles away.  The drought is worst over northwest Missouri, in areas just northeast of Kansas City.  Chillicothe, MO is about to have a thunderstorm this morning as you can see here:

Screen Shot 2018-07-19 at 7.24.26 AM

Todays morning thunderstorms were actually over the driest area of the region.  These thunderstorms will still produce under an inch of rain. Will this help the farmers?  Take a look at this comparison of Chillicothe to KCI Airport:

July Rainfall Comparison

KSHB Meteorologist Gerard Jebaily went up to this region yesterday, and he will be doing a report on the corn, that was not looking good, tonight on 41 Action News.  One of our bloggers, Humedude, sent in these pictures to us this week.  From Humedude,  “reporting the corn crop in my area of NW Vernon Co. Leaves totally curled up, doesn’t even look like corn more like sugar cane. I was surprised to find a decent ear of corn, this is a better ear actually. Even then it’s missing 30%+ of the total ear, that’s the part that would make a profit for the farmer. Most are missing 40% of the ear, worst are missing 50%.  So likely a 35-40% reduced yield,  maybe worse in some areas. Too late to help now even if Raines buckets, it is what it is now. We do need rain for soy beans and pastures are really hurting”.  Here is a picture of one of the ears of corn:

Corn

It’s much worse around northwestern Missouri.  The thunderstorms have targeted the driest areas this morning, finally, but they are moving through fairly quickly.  Thunderstorms are possible again later today and tonight before the chance goes back down to near zero for a few days. Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog as we continue a great conversation.

Gary

2018-07-20T11:45:44+00:00July 19th, 2018|General|52 Comments

52 Comments

  1. Snow Miser July 19, 2018 at 7:40 am - Reply

    Hey Hume, if you can’t sell any of that corn, send some of it my way, the squirrels in my yard would be happy to have it. 😉

  2. Mr. Pete July 19, 2018 at 7:56 am - Reply

    No sign of a drought in my yard this summer. It’s been green and growing and only used the sprinkler once.

  3. Craig July 19, 2018 at 8:50 am - Reply

    Gary, could you please take a moment to give your opinion on what happened overnight?
    Every model predicted an MCS dropping south out of Nebraska. It was projected to move near or just east of KC and yet…nothing. Not even any clouds.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE July 19, 2018 at 8:57 am - Reply

      Craig….Gary can’t effectively answer why models are so useless at times. Here’s my take, if it wasn’t a drought year that would have verified rather easily. Since it is a drought year – even when models want to develop storms/rain, it stimply struggles time after time. That’s why in drought you leave it out, or more realistically you put in a 30% and see what happens because we have had action it’s just been like herding cats trying to nail it down any given day. I feel your pain bro, I was hoping I would wake up to a squall line approaching the farm, but alas….. nothing

      • Craig July 19, 2018 at 9:49 am - Reply

        Which is why I asked for his opinion, not an explanation.
        October can’t come soon enough…

    • KS Jones July 19, 2018 at 9:16 am - Reply

      That system dropped down from Nebraska farther west, and we snagged a paltry 0.19″ at the south end.
      https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=twx&product=NTP&loop=no

  4. KS Jones July 19, 2018 at 9:10 am - Reply

    The average July rainfall out this way (25 miles north of Manhattan) is 4.51″ (our 2nd wettest month), but we’ve gotten only 1.13″ so far, bringing our YTD rainfall to 16.24″, which is considerably drier than normal. Crops and grasses are holding up well so far. The native grassland is looking green & great. That will change to a tint of brown soon, because the sideoats gramma grass has gone to seed, and the tall bluestem is beginning to bolt. Last year our tall bluestem and Indian grasses were 6′ tall in ungrazed areas.
    A lack of rainfall from now through August is my main concern.

    • Richard July 19, 2018 at 9:15 am - Reply

      KS Jones
      Are you in the Flint Hills ?
      Man I love it out there. Beautiful treeless rolling hills
      Especially nice in the fall

      • KS Jones July 19, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

        Yes — at the northernmost reaches of the Flint Hills. I wish I could share some pictures of the grassy bluffs that I took 2 days ago. We also have an abundance of oak-hickory timberland in this region, so the landscape isn’t quite the same as what you’d find south of Manhattan.

  5. Richard July 19, 2018 at 9:12 am - Reply

    Last night on air at 6 pm Gary said he was going to up the chance to 60% for today.
    Don’t know if he did or not

  6. Kurt July 19, 2018 at 9:37 am - Reply

    It’s much worse than the pic hume sent out east of St. Joseph, eastern Buchanan county and the 4 counties to the east of Buchanan county on either side of US 36 have corn falling over and it looks like late September in those fields. I don’t know if Gerard got pics, but I would think some corn won’t even see a 20 to 30% yield and the soy beans appear to not be filling pods in most locations even though some fields have nice looking beans. As for pastures they are totally dormant in the worst locations and look like mid winter with nothing but brown grass and dirt.

    I think St. Joseph is at 10.86 ytd, which is about 9 inches below normal and 19 inches below normal back to May 1st 2017. Would be interesting if you could post the percent of normal rainfall maps and a list of areas like Cameron, St. Joseph, Nevada, KCI, Lawrence etc to see what there percent of normal precip is going back to Oct 1 for this lrc and may a two year period as well. I think the numbers would be interesting.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE July 19, 2018 at 10:28 am - Reply

      Beans have to flower before they have a pod to fill, they aren’t flowering yet in my part of MO. They will start flowering in next couple weeks, and rain will be a must at that time. We have some bean plants only 4-6″ tall down here, they won’t Make diddly without some big rains but what else is new.

  7. Snow Miser July 19, 2018 at 10:11 am - Reply

    In his blog today, Doug Heady says he can forecast stuff a couple years in advance!
    http://weather.koamtv.com/2018/07/19/thursday-71918-blog-extreme-heat-changes-the-hp-heady-pattern/
    “However, I developed, with great help form a mathematician, a model or algorithm to help me find the cycle very early. This is SO important and very ground breaking and super exciting as this is something that hasn’t been discovered. So I also want to protect it, I am sure you all understand that. However, it helps me forecast tropical events not only 6 months or 9 months in advance, but I have found away to tell even a couple years in advance give or take 10 days. Yes 10 days sounds like a long time, but a couple years in advance where they will develop is huge, so I am super excited.”

    • Snow Miser July 19, 2018 at 10:11 am - Reply

      Oh I just realized he was referring just to *tropical” stuff. Still …

      • f00dl3 July 19, 2018 at 11:16 am - Reply

        Everyone knows tropics go on multi-decadial signals. This is nothing new. They can try to forecast it long in advance all they want, they still miss it.

      • Richard July 19, 2018 at 11:40 am - Reply

        He said last week that it was a model to help with all, not just tropics.
        But Gary said Doug does not have a model, it does not exist. So, Doug is lying.
        (Doug also said that he has a long range forecast BUSINESS…..with his business partner and mentor, Bryan Busby !)
        So, who had a long range forecast business first, Gary/Jeff or Doug/Bryan ?
        Gary and Jeff did !
        It matters to me because it seems Doug might be trying to mimic 2020.

  8. Bsmike July 19, 2018 at 10:44 am - Reply

    No clouds this am that mean storms for the evening? I read nws and they were talking about clouds playing a part in the potential. Well NO CLOUDS TO MESS THIS UP THIS TIME !!!

    • matt July 19, 2018 at 11:44 am - Reply

      MO side under a watch

    • matt July 19, 2018 at 12:12 pm - Reply

      Will have Storms today in all parts of area maybe with Hail. Watching for watch in KS.

  9. Anonymous July 19, 2018 at 11:32 am - Reply

    Are they expecting more storms later? KC area was upgraded from marginal to slight risks from this morning.

  10. Anonymous July 19, 2018 at 11:36 am - Reply

    looks to all be off to the east and by the time it does develop will be along and south of 1-70 for us; the pattern we’re cursed with if you are the miss out of the hit and miss storms this summer

  11. REAL HUMEDUDE July 19, 2018 at 11:46 am - Reply

    Severe Tstorm watch out for MO side. Almost entire western half of MO, sort of odd because the strongest storms are headed SE out of the watchbox and don’t appear to be threatening Western MO in the slightest.

  12. REAL HUMEDUDE July 19, 2018 at 11:51 am - Reply

    Watch now imminent for Eastern KS, as an unstable atmosphere is all primed now for a rapidly developing storm cluster in North central KS. Could be the most active Day We’ve had all year long? Something seems different today, much more instability to work with

    • Jordan July 19, 2018 at 12:41 pm - Reply

      Yup, just issued. Still not getting my hopes up. I did just hand-water almost an entire acre, though, so it probably will rain now.

  13. Bsmike July 19, 2018 at 12:03 pm - Reply

    Lol. SMH 🤦🏼‍♂️ not long after I posted no clouds. It’s completely cloudy now.

  14. Jason July 19, 2018 at 12:12 pm - Reply

    Hope your right Hume. We’ve had no rain in NW Olathe to speak of either. We don’t live right like Gary does

  15. matt July 19, 2018 at 12:13 pm - Reply

    Storms today yes. Watching watch KS side.

  16. Ben July 19, 2018 at 12:17 pm - Reply

    We had 1.1 in Chillicothe. Farther South had 2-5 inches. Not everyone got it but it was huge for those that did. It will still help the corn that is in grain fill. We’ve lost the top end of the ear and those kernels aren’t coming back but we’re still adding weight with every rain. The beans probably benefited the most. The early beans are setting pods and this will take them a long ways. Very lucky to get this with the next 7 days looking dry.

  17. Anonymous July 19, 2018 at 12:48 pm - Reply

    Don’t know why they put Leavenworth and the northern counties in the watch. From the looks of it everything will go south.

  18. MikeL July 19, 2018 at 12:54 pm - Reply

    Severe T-storms possible with possibly heavy sprinkles.

  19. Troy July 19, 2018 at 1:00 pm - Reply

    Severe storms just to my West one county but I think they will slide just South of me. That sure came up in a hurry. Corn and beans look good at my house but I went to Belleville last night and they were chopping corn for silage already. Everything looks really tough over there.

  20. J. R. July 19, 2018 at 1:17 pm - Reply

    Very interesting. Storms popped up near my house east of Lone Jack, now looks like they are backfilling towards KC. One really nasty looking cell over Warrensburg and another one just popped up east of Lee’s Summit

  21. Jordan July 19, 2018 at 1:33 pm - Reply

    The cell moving through downtown now literally formed over my house… and didn’t produce a single drop. Mother Nature has a sick sense of humor.

    • TDogg July 19, 2018 at 1:43 pm - Reply

      That sucks.

    • Jordan July 19, 2018 at 1:45 pm - Reply

      Feels like it sapped a lot of the humidity out of our air, as well, so I’m sure my storm chances are probably zero now.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE July 19, 2018 at 1:47 pm - Reply

      I was wondering about that Jordan, can I call you MJ for short?
      There is a point where the updraft is so strong it’s holding all the rain aloft, even though it’s a real storm it’s not producing precip in that first initial stage. Not until the updraft is overwhelmed by volume of condensed rain droplets does it really start to produce rain, so sorry you got screwed again. It’s still looking unstable out there, hoping you get lucky

      • Jordan July 19, 2018 at 1:58 pm - Reply

        Haha yup, we are less than a quarter-mile from the southern bank of the Missouri, right in the middle of the huge bend south of Parkville (I think it’s called Nearman Bend?) Basically, if you find the northern end of 67th street in KCK on Google Maps, that’s where we are.

      • Jordan July 19, 2018 at 2:01 pm - Reply

        And yeah, you can call me MJ lol.

  22. Kurt July 19, 2018 at 1:56 pm - Reply

    Dewpoint of 77 here in St. Joseph, not sure how we have this much moisture and nothing to speak of in terms of meaningful rains this entire week. Thankfully I’ve been watering the yard in a different spot each night, sometimes two areas with both sprinklers to keep the brown dormant areas from expanding and those few cooler days helped out

  23. TDogg July 19, 2018 at 1:57 pm - Reply

    What are the odds that complex comes straight down 70 to the Metro.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE July 19, 2018 at 2:05 pm - Reply

      Pretty dog gon good!
      Metro has been the target of every storm, it was moving SE but looks more westerly now. Anything is still on the table with the crazy CAPE values out there now

      • Jordan July 19, 2018 at 2:10 pm - Reply

        Yeah Hume, the humidity returned with a vengeance within the past 10 minutes over here, and the northwesterly wind that was blowing seems to have completely stopped. Starting to see some cumulus clouds bubbling back up to the west, as well.

    • Jordan July 19, 2018 at 2:07 pm - Reply

      I’d say pretty damn good, since the weather seems to have become sentient, and has decided it only wants to rain on areas that don’t need it, like the concrete downtown and suburbs of southern Overland Park lol

  24. Tim July 19, 2018 at 2:17 pm - Reply

    I’m in Puerto vallarta right now, and my pet sitter just saw aid really bad hail in lone jack…

    • Tim July 19, 2018 at 2:18 pm - Reply

      *”Just said”

  25. George July 19, 2018 at 2:27 pm - Reply

    Nice heavy rainstorm just blew through Lees Summit. Heavy rain and hail – pea size and a little larger. Hope I got some at my house in OP

  26. TDogg July 19, 2018 at 2:36 pm - Reply

    New blog.

  27. Hockeynut69 July 19, 2018 at 2:37 pm - Reply

    All of this keeps missing just north of Liberty area. Had a nice quick cool breeze from an outflow generated from the storm that was around Richmond earlier. It felt nice for about ten minutes and now back to hot. Looks like we will get missed once again. Groundhog Day the movie is what it feels like, just need some Sonny and Cher in the background.

  28. f00dl3 July 19, 2018 at 2:43 pm - Reply

    Don’t know if anyone saw but Drought Monitor now has WyCo / Johnson Co KS in Extreme (D3) Drought

    • Craig July 19, 2018 at 3:52 pm - Reply

      As it should be. And it’s only getting worse.
      Absolutely unfreakingbelieveable that we are ONCE AGAIN going to get ZERO rain out here in western Johnson County.

  29. Mr. Pete July 19, 2018 at 4:21 pm - Reply

    I’m working just southeast of Des Moines and just watched two tornadoes form and hit the ground. Took amazing videos and photos. I’ve never seen anything like this before

  30. RP July 20, 2018 at 9:32 am - Reply

    we got 3 inches at our farm in Avalon which is 10 mile southeast of Chillicothe . early yield checks are thinking 20 to 30 bushel range here on the corn . The rain was too late for the corn but will help the beans for a few days but it is so dry here it all ran to the cracks in the ground. Made everyone feel better for the moment .

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