Morning Thunderstorms Form Early

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Good morning bloggers,

What happened yesterday was absolutely fascinating, and thunderstorms were forming at 3:30 AM when I was writing this blog entry.  A series of disturbances in northwest flow aloft continues to bring the region these chances of rain, that are till producing hits and misses, and this morning is an other example of a hit or miss.   The south side of the KC metro area was the bulls-eye with over four inches of rain in spots as you can see with these rainfall totals:

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Yesterdays system left a disturbed area of unstable air lingering over the KC metro area, and areas to the northwest and southeast. At 3:30 AM, some new thunderstorms and rain showers were developing:

Screen Shot 2018-07-18 at 3.14.10 AM

There was a northwest to southeast band of unstable air, and one of the thunderstorms developing was just south of my house as I was writing this entry. If you remember the forecast from a week ago for today to be the cooler one with a high in the 70s with thunderstorms, well, it is close to happening, and sort of already happened with yesterdays cloudy and stormy high of 81 degrees. It is very early in the morning, but there is a good chance that it will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s either near KC, or just to our east today.  This was a forecast emphasizing the LRC, as this part of the pattern is directly related to around the time Hurricane Nate was forming right at the beginning of this years LRC, and in each cycle a storm dropped by KC at the same time, one of which was around January 9th to 11th, and we had a rainy day in January with that system; a cold blast with rain changing to snow with around .2 to .4 inches of rain followed by around 1/2″ inch of snow, and a drop from 51 degrees to 11 degrees.  The timing of the precipitation just wasn’t right as most of it fell as rain, before we had one of those black ice events the next morning when it dropped to 4 degrees.  This weeks cooler weather is right on schedule, but of course there is no Arctic air in July.  Today is 188 days later, or exactly 47 times 4 days ago, exactly on cycle.

In January, the Arctic air blasted in, and there is no Arctic air available in July, so what happens next in the July twist of the cycling pattern will be interesting.  It may go from the 70s in spots today, or into the lower 80s, and then all the way up to near 100 degrees by tomorrow afternoon.  Look at this forecast temperature map valid Thursday around 4 PM:

nam_T2m_us_14

Look at the cool pocket over Minnesota tomorrow, but what really stands out is a burst of heat that expands out over KC from potentially 110 degree plus air one state away.  Wow!  We will discuss this and much more on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms likely this morning, mainly near KC, and to the north and east. The chance of rain is 50% as some spots will still get missed once again.  High:  81° (70s in the areas that the rain lingers into the afternoon)
  • Tonight: A chance of a few thunderstorms developing again.  Low:  70°
  • Thursday:  Any thunderstorms ending, then sunny with much warmer temperatures. High: 96°
  • Thursday night-Friday:  A chance of heavy thunderstorms, a few may be strong.  High:  88°

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation or just read the comments to learn more about our exciting weather patterns.  Have a great day.

Gary

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RichardKurtLYITC41REAL HUMEDUDEJordan Recent comment authors
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Kurt
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Kurt

I was hoping to wake up to an MCS moving through to help the drought stricken areas around here, now nothing and for a “wet” week 2/10 of an inch and most of the extreme drought areas were missed in northern Missouri. KCI really doesn’t need any more rain this year lol. The farmers out east of St Joseph with less than 10 inches of rain this year need help big time

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Some whopper MCS we’re having this morning!
Lol
It’s a tough pattern, it simply always underwhelmes unless you get the stationary downpours that for whatever reason target Olathe every darn time. Missed a huge cell last night, it hit Mound city and Ft.Scott may have gotten 2″+. Cell them split and went 90 dofferent direction and hit Butler again. Cells have the oddest movement this year, if they even move at. No progressive nature to our rains, and therefore have so many more have nots

LYITC41
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LYITC41

Watched that from my backyard last night, got some cool photos of it. The CB would pulse up, anvil out and then repeat, very cool to watch.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Hume
Olathe did not get any from that one.
Before Tuesdays rain we were 11 inches below norm.
How much below norm is your farm ?

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

“This may be the week we get widespread rain!”

Yeah, a real swing-and-miss with that statement, Gary lol. Once again, absolutely nothing here when we have at least a 50% chance of rain. Yay! I get to go waste several hours of my day watering before I have to go to work because of another outstanding precipitation forecast! This is ridiculous. I’m still waiting on the 1″-2″ that was forecast for me two storms ago; I should have figured I wouldn’t get anything out of this “widespread rain” event.

Adam
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Adam

Got home in Gardner from downtown kc and there were lakes in the streets. Sun was shining by the time I arrived but something happened.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Don’t know how many here are familiar with Grinter sunflowet farm in Tonganoxie. They need rain too. Facebook post says “Okay, Folks, we’ve had a problem here! The sunflower seed has been in the ground for 10 days, and not any swelling in sight. The 100 degree temps in June all but depleted the ground of moisture, so we had to throw a Hail Mary and hope for the best. Our tiny seeds went into the ground and that’s where they still lay…waiting for a drink. There has been rain all over the region (lots of it), but precious little… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Jordan…..of NAM had been right any time this week you and I wouldn’t be complaining so much!
At one point earlier in the week NAM total rainfall for me was illustrating widespread 2-3″ which verified into 50 measly drops all week for my farm. We can only hope now. You have a much better shot at breaking through than I do, you’ve been surrounded by huge rains now so I think you are in line for a rain soon

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Man, I hope so. It’s absolutely mind-boggling to look at the rainfall total maps and see our little 3-square mile area with nothing but a trace, while pretty much everything else surrounding our immediate area has at least .3″-1″. If this next round tomorrow morning manages to miss me, I might have to take up watering my gullet with brown bottles lol. At least something will be wet.

GFS is looking slightly promising, as well. Hope your farm gets the drink it needs tonight/tomorrow, Hume.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Man, I hope these NAM models hold up. They have the 435 loop getting a nice complex at about 5-6am tomorrow morning.

Rickmckc
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Rickmckc

1.08 near i29 and 64th. Thrilled.

Mike
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Mike

Thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon! Thursday around 2:00

MattinLeavenworth
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MattinLeavenworth

All I know is after last winter disappointing snow totals, and this hot dry summer we deserve a good October surprise. 6-8 inches of snow!

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

We had a white Easter this year, so why not a white Halloween? 😀

Craig
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Craig

SPC seems pretty confident that we’re going to get a decent MCS through here sometime overnight.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

sedsinkc
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sedsinkc

Finally something of note rainfall-wise here in KC North with 0.81 inches this morning.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

I think my block might be the only one in Wyandotte County that hasn’t gotten at least .3″ out of these rain chances. I’m still stuck on some 2-square-mile drought island that rain just can’t seem to find. Storms head straight for me, then either shift or dissipate, only to reform just a few miles away from me. Same thing that happened yesterday (and pretty much every storm chance these past three months) happened AGAIN this morning.

Mike Holm
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Mike Holm

Drought buster in Gladstone/Parkville

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Looks like the areas in the NE part of the metro that missed out last night are getting their payback now.

George
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George

Dumped out 3/4″ this morning. 87th & Antioch in OP

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I’m thinking that the reason why we heat up when in winter we would cool down is because of moisture. I said it once, I’ll say it again, the LRC is for upper levels, and moisture is a surface feature. LRC sucks at predicting moisture. That being said, the general fact is that in winter, dryer air means your temperatures tank. In summer, drier air means you cool down more at night but heat up more during the day. It’s hard to hit 100 when your dewpoint is 80+, but with a 55-60 dewpoint, 100 is easy. Likewise, in winter,… Read more »

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Area west of Parkville, downpour yesterday and downpour again this morning. Finally! KCI is at 1.20 inches now after yesterday, about 1/4 of normal. Still so dry, but improved.

Trevor
Guest
Trevor

Gary

Is the chance for heavy storms Thursday night looking widespread or more hit or miss like they have been?

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

Got a sneeze’s worth of moisture in La Cygne. I guess I lost at the rain location lottery.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Platte City is getting a bunch of rain! I’m I Lansing and that small line has been sitting over them for awhile and it keeps regenerating just south over Leavenworth and moving over platte.

hoopsA1
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hoopsA1

im lost as to how last week it was forecasted that this week was going to be cooler than normal with temps in the 80’s but yet we are talking about making a run at 100. In the blog you stated we had a artic blast after the rain which would mean cooler temps not above average temps

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Getting a really good downpour right now in downtown Independence.

Michael
Guest
Michael

Got a meager .25″ yesterday in Maryville. We will take any though, cause it’s getting dry up here! Hope for more today, have a great day Bloggers,
Michael

Mason - Basehor
Guest
Mason - Basehor

Gary — I am hoping you can elaborate on an answer you gave a few days ago about the tropics. You mention hurricane Nate occurred 4 cycles ago today; and your forecast is also for a hurricane to hit the west coast of Florida around September 1; one cycle from now. With those in mind, why is there no hurricane in the gulf right now? Wouldn’t it be perfectly in sync with your theory if there was one? And without one, how do the cycles actually work if not by having a hurricane there now; during hurricane season; one cycle… Read more »

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Recorded a small and meager .25″ up here in Maryville yesterday. But as dry as its getting we will take whatever Mother Nature gives us! Hopefully we get another shot today. Looks dark to the West. Have a great Hump Day Bloggers!
Michael

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

STILL haven’t had any rain since July 1st. Several trace events for the farm, the pastures are beat right now. It would take 3-4″ to get them out of dormancy right now. All I see is dry weather on the horizon so while KC got 4″ yesterday my drought is here to stay . Those storms were maddening to watch on radar, they weren’t really moving. The cells would pulse and die in places, a signature of storms this year. Very little progressive movement that would provide more coverage of rainfall, you either get a glhige dumping or nothing. This… Read more »

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

LRC

Lonely
Real Humey
Complains

You get paid rent….whomever “farms” “your” crop needs rain

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Awww,I have a fan!
Tdogg has honored me with a trolling post, I’m blushing right now. Tdogg likes me, he really likes me!!! Thanks for the support, let me know when you want to meet up for drinks

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I’m a little jealous…I used to be his favorite

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

Your whiney season hasn’t started yet Robert. Get back to work…you’re wasting tax dollars

Dobber
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Dobber

Is this you ed??

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

ahhhh…just like old times

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

muku?

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Hume, I’m in the 435 loop and somehow still keep getting missed, so I’m right there with ya. Everyone around me seems to keep getting it, so I hope my time comes this week before the chances evaporate.

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

Gary, not asking you to teqnically respond to a another local forecaster but wondering if you could answer in general? Another local forecast has an almost heat wave starting tomorrow thru Sunday. They have everyday above 95 expcept Friday, which would keep us from having an official heat wave, at least by our standards for this area. So do you think this is possible? I’m assuming since we (meaning not me) are predicting the future it must be possible otherwise why would they make that forecast. Do you think the possiblity is high for a “surprise” heat wave starting tomorrow?… Read more »

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

Ops, *technically*

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol..dont know if ive ever heard of a surprise heatwave

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

I’m saying “surprise” because if Gary isn’t forecasting one to start tomorrow like another station almost is wouldn’t it be a surprise then? Don’t expect him to answer as it appears 95% of the time when I ask a question it is never answered. So I guess the answer is look at the 7 day graphic, go to the 1 weather app on the LRC website. According to that this week we are supposed to average around 94 for a high?

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Once again, I got missed by the overnight thunderstorms. There is literally one four blocks away from my house right now, but the rain gauge, including yesterday, is still under .1″. Gary, am I going to get any rain in northern central Wyandotte before these chances are over?

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

I got 1.6″ yesterday @ 123rd a Antioch which brought me up to 3.10″ for July, a strange drought as someone said yesterday, but definitely still a drought. Just not as bad at my location as others are experiencing.