Morning Thunderstorms Form Early

/Morning Thunderstorms Form Early

Morning Thunderstorms Form Early

Good morning bloggers,

What happened yesterday was absolutely fascinating, and thunderstorms were forming at 3:30 AM when I was writing this blog entry.  A series of disturbances in northwest flow aloft continues to bring the region these chances of rain, that are till producing hits and misses, and this morning is an other example of a hit or miss.   The south side of the KC metro area was the bulls-eye with over four inches of rain in spots as you can see with these rainfall totals:

1

2

Yesterdays system left a disturbed area of unstable air lingering over the KC metro area, and areas to the northwest and southeast. At 3:30 AM, some new thunderstorms and rain showers were developing:

Screen Shot 2018-07-18 at 3.14.10 AM

There was a northwest to southeast band of unstable air, and one of the thunderstorms developing was just south of my house as I was writing this entry. If you remember the forecast from a week ago for today to be the cooler one with a high in the 70s with thunderstorms, well, it is close to happening, and sort of already happened with yesterdays cloudy and stormy high of 81 degrees. It is very early in the morning, but there is a good chance that it will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s either near KC, or just to our east today.  This was a forecast emphasizing the LRC, as this part of the pattern is directly related to around the time Hurricane Nate was forming right at the beginning of this years LRC, and in each cycle a storm dropped by KC at the same time, one of which was around January 9th to 11th, and we had a rainy day in January with that system; a cold blast with rain changing to snow with around .2 to .4 inches of rain followed by around 1/2″ inch of snow, and a drop from 51 degrees to 11 degrees.  The timing of the precipitation just wasn’t right as most of it fell as rain, before we had one of those black ice events the next morning when it dropped to 4 degrees.  This weeks cooler weather is right on schedule, but of course there is no Arctic air in July.  Today is 188 days later, or exactly 47 times 4 days ago, exactly on cycle.

In January, the Arctic air blasted in, and there is no Arctic air available in July, so what happens next in the July twist of the cycling pattern will be interesting.  It may go from the 70s in spots today, or into the lower 80s, and then all the way up to near 100 degrees by tomorrow afternoon.  Look at this forecast temperature map valid Thursday around 4 PM:

nam_T2m_us_14

Look at the cool pocket over Minnesota tomorrow, but what really stands out is a burst of heat that expands out over KC from potentially 110 degree plus air one state away.  Wow!  We will discuss this and much more on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms likely this morning, mainly near KC, and to the north and east. The chance of rain is 50% as some spots will still get missed once again.  High:  81° (70s in the areas that the rain lingers into the afternoon)
  • Tonight: A chance of a few thunderstorms developing again.  Low:  70°
  • Thursday:  Any thunderstorms ending, then sunny with much warmer temperatures. High: 96°
  • Thursday night-Friday:  A chance of heavy thunderstorms, a few may be strong.  High:  88°

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation or just read the comments to learn more about our exciting weather patterns.  Have a great day.

Gary

2018-07-18T06:07:26+00:00July 18th, 2018|Featured|56 Comments

56 Comments

  1. LYITC41 July 18, 2018 at 6:24 am - Reply

    I got 1.6″ yesterday @ 123rd a Antioch which brought me up to 3.10″ for July, a strange drought as someone said yesterday, but definitely still a drought. Just not as bad at my location as others are experiencing.

  2. Jordan July 18, 2018 at 6:37 am - Reply

    Once again, I got missed by the overnight thunderstorms. There is literally one four blocks away from my house right now, but the rain gauge, including yesterday, is still under .1″. Gary, am I going to get any rain in northern central Wyandotte before these chances are over?

  3. Michael Garner July 18, 2018 at 6:52 am - Reply

    Gary, not asking you to teqnically respond to a another local forecaster but wondering if you could answer in general? Another local forecast has an almost heat wave starting tomorrow thru Sunday. They have everyday above 95 expcept Friday, which would keep us from having an official heat wave, at least by our standards for this area. So do you think this is possible? I’m assuming since we (meaning not me) are predicting the future it must be possible otherwise why would they make that forecast. Do you think the possiblity is high for a “surprise” heat wave starting tomorrow? I say surprise as I don’t think your 7 day forecast yesterday on the 5pm forecast had anything close to a heat wave.

    • Michael Garner July 18, 2018 at 7:04 am - Reply

      Ops, *technically*

    • Heat Miser July 18, 2018 at 11:03 am - Reply

      lol..dont know if ive ever heard of a surprise heatwave

      • Michael Garner July 18, 2018 at 11:10 am - Reply

        I’m saying “surprise” because if Gary isn’t forecasting one to start tomorrow like another station almost is wouldn’t it be a surprise then? Don’t expect him to answer as it appears 95% of the time when I ask a question it is never answered. So I guess the answer is look at the 7 day graphic, go to the 1 weather app on the LRC website. According to that this week we are supposed to average around 94 for a high?

        • Gary July 18, 2018 at 11:46 am - Reply

          What are you asking? And, can you believe it everyone, 3.29″ of rain this morning at KCI Airport PLUS over an inch yesterday.

          Gary

          • Blue Flash July 18, 2018 at 12:14 pm - Reply

            Yes, and now every weathercast going forward will have to include a disclaimer, even though we are now “officially” above normal in rainfall, most of the area is still in a drought. And it looks like this is the only spot inside the 435 loop that received this much rain.

            • Kurt July 18, 2018 at 1:08 pm - Reply

              There is much more territory in eastern Kansas into northern Missouri that are running huge deficits as opposed to the randomness of those that received generous rains. There are areas of northern Missouri running 20 plus inch rainfall deficits since May 2017.

              • Richard July 18, 2018 at 3:01 pm

                Kurt
                I think I heard this morning that they are even rationiong water usage east of St Joe ? (Watering of lawns, etc)

    • Gary July 18, 2018 at 11:54 am - Reply

      I am certain they just used the European Model which had near 100 degrees every day beginning tomorrow. I need to do more of an analysis before I answer the question, but our 7 day forecast does not have such a heat wave. We are in northwest flow. KSHB outperforms the competition by a rather huge number. So, look at their forecasts as you will, I never did as a kid. I trusted one main source and learned a lot from Dr. George in the 60s and 70s. He beat the competition almost every time. Just like KSHB, we aren’t right all of the time, just more often than anyone else. So, believe that heat wave, that no snow they predict, that snowstorm, and then they may beat us one or two times out of ten. So, keep going back to that source, because for some reason you forget?

      Gary

      • Michael Garner July 18, 2018 at 12:23 pm - Reply

        I’m not sure what you mean on your last line”because for some reason you forgot”. I look at many sources to get an idea, I never lean on one source, when it comes to weather or news. I was asking because I thought it was odd that they were showing the potential of heat wave while you were not. I asked because I wanted to see if that was possible or if they were just out to lunch, like they normally are. So not sure why you seem to be against people looking at other forecast to get a well rounded idea of what could happen? Thank you for the answer, I figured they could be wrong but as you always say let’s see what actually happens. You must have thought this week was going to be warmer than what it looks like it will be based upon 1 weather app. It shows high and low of 94/74? Thank you

  4. REAL HUMEDUDE July 18, 2018 at 7:21 am - Reply

    STILL haven’t had any rain since July 1st. Several trace events for the farm, the pastures are beat right now. It would take 3-4″ to get them out of dormancy right now. All I see is dry weather on the horizon so while KC got 4″ yesterday my drought is here to stay .
    Those storms were maddening to watch on radar, they weren’t really moving. The cells would pulse and die in places, a signature of storms this year. Very little progressive movement that would provide more coverage of rainfall, you either get a glhige dumping or nothing. This is driving Jordan and myself crazy

    • Tdogg July 18, 2018 at 8:23 am - Reply

      LRC

      Lonely
      Real Humey
      Complains

      You get paid rent….whomever “farms” “your” crop needs rain

      • REAL HUMEDUDE July 18, 2018 at 9:29 am - Reply

        Awww,I have a fan!
        Tdogg has honored me with a trolling post, I’m blushing right now. Tdogg likes me, he really likes me!!! Thanks for the support, let me know when you want to meet up for drinks

        • Heat Miser July 18, 2018 at 11:04 am - Reply

          I’m a little jealous…I used to be his favorite

          • Tdogg July 18, 2018 at 5:38 pm - Reply

            Your whiney season hasn’t started yet Robert. Get back to work…you’re wasting tax dollars

            • Dobber July 18, 2018 at 5:52 pm - Reply

              Is this you ed??

            • Heat Miser July 18, 2018 at 6:02 pm - Reply

              ahhhh…just like old times

              • Blue Flash July 18, 2018 at 9:22 pm

                muku?

    • Jordan July 18, 2018 at 10:50 am - Reply

      Hume, I’m in the 435 loop and somehow still keep getting missed, so I’m right there with ya. Everyone around me seems to keep getting it, so I hope my time comes this week before the chances evaporate.

  5. Anonymous July 18, 2018 at 7:54 am - Reply

    Recorded a small and meager .25″ up here in Maryville yesterday. But as dry as its getting we will take whatever Mother Nature gives us! Hopefully we get another shot today. Looks dark to the West. Have a great Hump Day Bloggers!
    Michael

  6. Mason - Basehor July 18, 2018 at 7:57 am - Reply

    Gary —

    I am hoping you can elaborate on an answer you gave a few days ago about the tropics.

    You mention hurricane Nate occurred 4 cycles ago today; and your forecast is also for a hurricane to hit the west coast of Florida around September 1; one cycle from now.

    With those in mind, why is there no hurricane in the gulf right now? Wouldn’t it be perfectly in sync with your theory if there was one? And without one, how do the cycles actually work if not by having a hurricane there now; during hurricane season; one cycle before the big September 1 storm?

    • Gary July 18, 2018 at 11:50 am - Reply

      Mason,

      This is information that we are in contracted to not disclose at this time. But, I can say this, when there is an early tropical storm, then there is a very good chance of a hurricane in the next two cycles. So, this is one, and September is 2. It does not say there will be one in each cycle.

      Gary

      • Mason - Basehor July 18, 2018 at 1:56 pm - Reply

        You’re contracted to not answer this question about your theory?

        I’m not asking about a future forecast, which I understand you sell for profit; I’m just asking about how your theory can call for a hurricane 47 days (one cycle length) from now if there’s not currently a hurricane … and we’re in hurricane season now.

        If the heart of your theory is that the weather repeats every 47-48 days, then around September 1, per your theory, the Gulf of Mexico— in fact, the entire Atlantic tropical basin—should be entirely calm, should it not? That would match with the current conditions of this week.

        • Gary July 18, 2018 at 5:16 pm - Reply

          I am so glad you are all opening your minds to this. Remember, we are sharing a discovery with you! It will be years before others realize that the earth is not flat, but it is round. The LRC describes organization to the chaos in the troposphere, where weather happens. We are researching, forecasting, results are incredible both in the positive and negative. I am sure many of you are noticing how accurate the LRC is, and the forecasts are getting better and better. So, some of the research needs much more analysis and we are working on it. I just got invited to speak in Rome at a big conference. I am quite honored.

          Gary

          • Richard July 18, 2018 at 6:56 pm - Reply

            Rome ! Wow ! Congrats Gary !
            Are you going ? When is it

      • Richard July 18, 2018 at 3:14 pm - Reply

        Gary
        What ?
        You can’t disclose what information…
        You are a meteorologist but can’t discuss early tropical storms ?
        Strange. Very strange

  7. Michael July 18, 2018 at 7:59 am - Reply

    Got a meager .25″ yesterday in Maryville. We will take any though, cause it’s getting dry up here! Hope for more today, have a great day Bloggers,
    Michael

  8. Snow Miser July 18, 2018 at 8:07 am - Reply

    Getting a really good downpour right now in downtown Independence.

  9. hoopsA1 July 18, 2018 at 8:23 am - Reply

    im lost as to how last week it was forecasted that this week was going to be cooler than normal with temps in the 80’s but yet we are talking about making a run at 100. In the blog you stated we had a artic blast after the rain which would mean cooler temps not above average temps

  10. Anonymous July 18, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

    Platte City is getting a bunch of rain! I’m I Lansing and that small line has been sitting over them for awhile and it keeps regenerating just south over Leavenworth and moving over platte.

  11. Farmgirl July 18, 2018 at 8:50 am - Reply

    Got a sneeze’s worth of moisture in La Cygne. I guess I lost at the rain location lottery.

  12. Trevor July 18, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

    Gary

    Is the chance for heavy storms Thursday night looking widespread or more hit or miss like they have been?

  13. snowflakeparkville July 18, 2018 at 9:12 am - Reply

    Area west of Parkville, downpour yesterday and downpour again this morning. Finally! KCI is at 1.20 inches now after yesterday, about 1/4 of normal. Still so dry, but improved.

  14. f00dl3 July 18, 2018 at 9:40 am - Reply

    I’m thinking that the reason why we heat up when in winter we would cool down is because of moisture. I said it once, I’ll say it again, the LRC is for upper levels, and moisture is a surface feature. LRC sucks at predicting moisture. That being said, the general fact is that in winter, dryer air means your temperatures tank. In summer, drier air means you cool down more at night but heat up more during the day. It’s hard to hit 100 when your dewpoint is 80+, but with a 55-60 dewpoint, 100 is easy. Likewise, in winter, below zero dewpoints foster below zero temperatures, you can’t get below zero if your dewpoint is 15.

    Cold fronts in summer really are moisture dividing lines.

  15. George July 18, 2018 at 9:45 am - Reply

    Dumped out 3/4″ this morning. 87th & Antioch in OP

  16. Snow Miser July 18, 2018 at 9:48 am - Reply

    Looks like the areas in the NE part of the metro that missed out last night are getting their payback now.

  17. Mike Holm July 18, 2018 at 10:04 am - Reply

    Drought buster in Gladstone/Parkville

  18. Jordan July 18, 2018 at 10:26 am - Reply

    I think my block might be the only one in Wyandotte County that hasn’t gotten at least .3″ out of these rain chances. I’m still stuck on some 2-square-mile drought island that rain just can’t seem to find. Storms head straight for me, then either shift or dissipate, only to reform just a few miles away from me. Same thing that happened yesterday (and pretty much every storm chance these past three months) happened AGAIN this morning.

  19. sedsinkc July 18, 2018 at 10:59 am - Reply

    Finally something of note rainfall-wise here in KC North with 0.81 inches this morning.

  20. Craig July 18, 2018 at 12:05 pm - Reply

    SPC seems pretty confident that we’re going to get a decent MCS through here sometime overnight.
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

  21. MattinLeavenworth July 18, 2018 at 12:09 pm - Reply

    All I know is after last winter disappointing snow totals, and this hot dry summer we deserve a good October surprise. 6-8 inches of snow!

    • Snow Miser July 18, 2018 at 12:22 pm - Reply

      We had a white Easter this year, so why not a white Halloween? 😀

  22. Mike July 18, 2018 at 12:34 pm - Reply

    Thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon! Thursday around 2:00

  23. Rickmckc July 18, 2018 at 2:28 pm - Reply

    1.08 near i29 and 64th. Thrilled.

  24. Jordan July 18, 2018 at 2:59 pm - Reply

    Man, I hope these NAM models hold up. They have the 435 loop getting a nice complex at about 5-6am tomorrow morning.

  25. REAL HUMEDUDE July 18, 2018 at 3:39 pm - Reply

    Jordan…..of NAM had been right any time this week you and I wouldn’t be complaining so much!
    At one point earlier in the week NAM total rainfall for me was illustrating widespread 2-3″ which verified into 50 measly drops all week for my farm. We can only hope now. You have a much better shot at breaking through than I do, you’ve been surrounded by huge rains now so I think you are in line for a rain soon

    • Jordan July 18, 2018 at 4:00 pm - Reply

      Man, I hope so. It’s absolutely mind-boggling to look at the rainfall total maps and see our little 3-square mile area with nothing but a trace, while pretty much everything else surrounding our immediate area has at least .3″-1″. If this next round tomorrow morning manages to miss me, I might have to take up watering my gullet with brown bottles lol. At least something will be wet.

      GFS is looking slightly promising, as well. Hope your farm gets the drink it needs tonight/tomorrow, Hume.

  26. Richard July 18, 2018 at 5:05 pm - Reply

    Don’t know how many here are familiar with Grinter sunflowet farm in Tonganoxie.
    They need rain too.

    Facebook post says
    “Okay, Folks, we’ve had a problem here! The sunflower seed has been in the ground for 10 days, and not any swelling in sight. The 100 degree temps in June all but depleted the ground of moisture, so we had to throw a Hail Mary and hope for the best. Our tiny seeds went into the ground and that’s where they still lay…waiting for a drink. There has been rain all over the region (lots of it), but precious little here. We’ve managed to get a combined total of approximately 4 tenths in the last week. So far, it just hasn’t been enough. I really wanted to make a post today that included a picture of a tiny little sunflower plant, but, alas, there are none to photograph.
    Desperately seeking rain”

  27. Adam July 18, 2018 at 5:10 pm - Reply

    Got home in Gardner from downtown kc and there were lakes in the streets. Sun was shining by the time I arrived but something happened.

  28. Jordan July 19, 2018 at 6:02 am - Reply

    “This may be the week we get widespread rain!”

    Yeah, a real swing-and-miss with that statement, Gary lol. Once again, absolutely nothing here when we have at least a 50% chance of rain. Yay! I get to go waste several hours of my day watering before I have to go to work because of another outstanding precipitation forecast! This is ridiculous. I’m still waiting on the 1″-2″ that was forecast for me two storms ago; I should have figured I wouldn’t get anything out of this “widespread rain” event.

  29. REAL HUMEDUDE July 19, 2018 at 6:45 am - Reply

    Some whopper MCS we’re having this morning!
    Lol
    It’s a tough pattern, it simply always underwhelmes unless you get the stationary downpours that for whatever reason target Olathe every darn time. Missed a huge cell last night, it hit Mound city and Ft.Scott may have gotten 2″+. Cell them split and went 90 dofferent direction and hit Butler again. Cells have the oddest movement this year, if they even move at. No progressive nature to our rains, and therefore have so many more have nots

    • LYITC41 July 19, 2018 at 6:56 am - Reply

      Watched that from my backyard last night, got some cool photos of it. The CB would pulse up, anvil out and then repeat, very cool to watch.

    • Richard July 19, 2018 at 8:19 am - Reply

      Hume
      Olathe did not get any from that one.
      Before Tuesdays rain we were 11 inches below norm.
      How much below norm is your farm ?

  30. Kurt July 19, 2018 at 7:22 am - Reply

    I was hoping to wake up to an MCS moving through to help the drought stricken areas around here, now nothing and for a “wet” week 2/10 of an inch and most of the extreme drought areas were missed in northern Missouri. KCI really doesn’t need any more rain this year lol. The farmers out east of St Joseph with less than 10 inches of rain this year need help big time

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