Good morning bloggers,
Let’s begin with the break of the heat wave. There is a good chance of a cold front moving across the area this weekend which will bring some nice relief in around 6 to 7 days. Between now and then it will be quite hot and KCI Airport will make a run at its first 100 degree reading in almost five years. The models also have some rain on them when that front approaches this weekend, but most of us know what has happened with this pattern since October. Here are the rainfall totals in 2018:
The models are coming in today with some wet weather close by, but also close by is the bulls-eye of dry weather over the next week as well. Here is one of the models, the European Model rainfall output for the next ten days:
There is an anticyclonic pattern to the precipitation. The first chance of rain is still many days away. Have a great day. Join in the conversation over on the Weather2020 blog.
Kansas City Weather Time-Line:
- Today: Mostly sunny and hot. Highs 96° – 99°
- Tonight: Clear and warm. Low: 75°
- Wednesday: Sunny and very hot. KCI will make a run at 100 degrees. Highs: 97° to 101°
Gary
My grass is starting to throw in the towel even with an in-ground system.
I upgraded to the Rachio Smart controller this spring and for the next week and a half it has me watering every day – debating if I should just let the back go, and keep the front green. The Missouri River being as full as it is makes me feel better about all the water I’m using keeping my hobby alive.
Brian, no need to water every day unless you want to and can afford it. You can be very specific with Rachio clock on what zone you want to water. I’d suggest reducing the frequency and increase run time. Short watering stinks, let it soak in deep as possible. MowerMike, give him a break, may have some good suggestions as well. But really, water longer but only 3 times a week, no need to try for a lush, gretlook on cool season turf in this garbage weather.
Green*
I should have clarified – it’s watering different zones each day depending on sun exposure and estimated soil moisture. It breaks each zone into 2 segments allowing for the water to soak in.
Gary –
Any thoughts on why this pattern has been such a bear to forecast for?
The spring forecast, if I remember right, called for average precipitation and below average temps.
This was the w2020 forecast for this week — I wish it had held!
July 8
Cold Fronts
82°F / 63°F
There will be more than one cold front tracking from northwest to southeast across the region this week, which is unusual for this time of year. These fronts will be accompanied by disturbances, so three to four days will have a good chance of showers and thunderstorms, some severe. Temperatures will run below average. Go to Weather2020.com to join the LRC Forecast Experience Blog and learn more about this breakthrough technology
Let me summarize a response from Gary.
Oh that forecast is right on track. The pattern is cycling in the 30-90 day timeframe right now. As for why the difficulty forecast in this cycle. Well this Spring and Summer has been very unusual and we are just not in the right spot. This pattern has been a tough and tricky for local mets. Our weather team has actually fair really good. Our forecasts have verified almost spot on thus far.
Have a good day.
G.
That’s hilarious!!
What I don’t understand is how everyone indicates the temperatures are above “average” for this time of year. How are folks calculating “average”? I’ve been living in the KC area for 11 years now, and can never recall a normal summer. In fact, the norm or standard remains excessively hot, humid, and little rain. What is unusual is to have temperatures in the 80’s instead of 90’s. So when I see folks on TV say things like, “well above average,” I shake my head and think how are they defining “average”?
For as long as I’ve lived here I can never recall a summer that others might consider “seasonal” or normal. The standard has more often than not been excessively high humidity levels, high dew points and temps in the 90’s with little to no rain. In fact, once June starts, count on no rain for weeks at a clip.
Yet, others proclaim this weather as unusual for our area?
I wish it had held too, says all you need to know about the “LRC”, not very dependable.
Wow another short one
Heck, Gary, Take a few days off from blogging unless there is something new to blog about.
I think you are just as bored with this weather as we are
Why show three identical graphs of rainfall totals for 2018 ?
They aren’t indentical..they zoom in, each showing more detail stats of the area.
Richard you do nothing but complain on Gary’s blog, maybe don’t come back and just read JLs blog
Agreed, the whining gets old. Seems he has not much else to do.
Aren’t you just whining about Richard? Just saying…
I don’t call it whining, it’s everyday talking about how much better other meteorologist are so why does he bother coming here
And you contributed to the weather conversation how? One could say the same thing about you and LYITC41.
If you don’t like someones comments, just read them and move on. No need to comment about it.
And you just come here to troll, so you are not in a position of moral superiority here. LOL Nice try though.
Not complaining every day not at all
And not true that I talk about other mets being better.
In fact mentioned MT to say how over the top he was by putting 5 100 degree days in there.
I said my bet was on Garys 99.
I mention JL here and there to say he has a lot of data that I find interesting. Detailed historic that is rarely shared here by wx2020. Number guy was always good with that here,
I have tried to contribute. I even post links. I talk about the weather.
I ask questions of Gary. Some get answered, most do not. But some bloggers have answered and I have appreciated them all.
I might seem to complain a lot.
And some of you are correct I don’t have much of a life especially when it is miserably cold or hot outside.
See my name ? scroll past.
At this point in my life I don’t owe anyone a damn thing.
What you owe people, unless they are disrespecting you, is respect. If we all had a bit more of that, this world would be a better place. Electronic social media is the tool that that some have chose to communicate in a way that they would absolutely not if in person.
The YTD rainfall here out west is 15.19″, and that’s a few inches short of average.
Gary, just a thought…
You often show the rainfall deficits in absolute terms. While “five inches below average” may be significant and meaningful to you, me and every other weather geek, the scale of drought might be more impactful if you show it in percentage terms.
For example, stating that Lawrence in 10″ under average doesn’t seem to fully explain the extent of the drought. Stating that Lawrence has received just 43% of their average rainfall in 2018 may be more meaningful to the average person.
Again, just an idea for your consideration.
Craig,
I have done this from time to time. I do think it is a good idea, but the average person out there doesn’t understand percentages very well.
Gary
Did you really mean that ?
Most average people understand percentages. Give some credit !
I say that 100% of the bloggers on here are above “average” and would absolutely understand percentages.
a 100% of the bloggers are above average? ROTFLMAO
JoeK
it was a general compliment to the bloggers on here.
In my opinion most are above average, maybe not 100%, but who are you to judge.
I don’t make it my mission to insult the intelligence of the bloggers that is displayed on here daily.
Maybe the intricacies of reading models and talking about GFS, EURO, etc is not understood by myself and some others, but I try.
Richard,
I am not judging, I simply found that comment entertaining and uplifting. You must live a seriously dark life to be so sensitive Get out and go fishing, hang out with friends, take a walk and enjoy nature. Do something that gets you off all the blogs you post on under various screen names.
Only one name Joe.
I have never posted under any other name.
Gary knows my story.
Walks in nature and fishing on the bank in this heat not possible.
I get heat stroke. I can’t sweat. My 70 years are catching up on me.
But I will lay off of posting here. I will read.
Carry on
Averages are just the average of extremes and comparing against them is misleading. How many years do we actually experience the “average”? Doesn’t matter if it’s temps, rainfall, snowfall, etc. One year we get 2″ of snow, next year we get 25″. The average of those 2 years is not even close to what was experienced. Now do that for a tiny sample size of 150 years compared to actual years of weather experienced. We can use averages for things like first and last frost, growing season lengths, etc, because they are based on things that are constant like hours of and angle of the sun. But this daily chasing after unrepresentative averages which depend on numerous and unpredictable variables is tiresome and not helpful.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land-based-station-data/land-based-datasets/climate-normals/1981-2010-normals-data
What are Climate Normals?
In the strictest sense, a “normal” of a particular variable (e.g., temperature) is defined as the 30-year average. . . In practice, however, much more goes into NCEI’s Climate Normals product than simple 30-year averages. . . Climate Normals are a large suite of data products that provide users with many tools to understand typical climate conditions for thousands of locations across the United States.
https://www.bookstore.ksre.ksu.edu/pubs/MF3334.pdf
The frost-free season length in all regions of Kansas exhibits a statistically significant increase from 1901 to 2014 at a rate of . . . 1.47 +-0.74 days per decade in eastern Kansas
LRC
Lonely
Richard
Complains
Get on Tinder and get a girl Richard.
Stuff it dogg
I really have to say as a person who finds the LRC fascinating and I can attest it does exist at the upper levels, it really stinks that you can’t really use it to do long range forecasting accurately. The majority of seasonal forecasts I can recall have not panned out at all, and it’s all because while the pattern is there and it cycles, what happens at the surface never matches the 500mb layer.
The pattern at the surface is directly related to the 500 mb flow, so your statement is not true. How are we able to make these accurate forecasts in the long range? By understanding this relationship with seasonal differences. A storm at 500 mb in January will produce a surface low much farther east than a storm in June will, for example. If you are just trying to make these forecasts on your own, you will not do very well if you don’t take many other parameters into consideration. So, I think that is where many of you lose the fact of accuracy. What happens in one cycle is likely going to happen in the next cycle, and so on, but there will be differences, and these differences are very predictable. Weather2020 has been getting better and better and making these predictions in the past few years.
The LRC is there and it exists, you can just see it in the 500 mb maps.
Problem is that doesn’t make a difference to us at the surface. Majority of winter, spring, and summer forecasts made using the LRC don’t pan out.
Looks like it’ll miss 100 degrees yet again.
It’s 100 right now in Lawrence
It’s 100 in Lawrence right now
Just pointing out something, if the 100 degree mark is important, why is KSHB’s weather site showing a high temp for another location instead of the”official “ KCI location?
12z GFS suddenly contains some hope.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018071012&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=168
And thank goodness those days forecast to be in the 100’s are gone.
It’s so hot outside I saw a robin dipping his worm in gatorade. Ba-da-boom!
LOL!!!!! LOVE IT!
What’s the Euro Saying?
Has it leaned wet or dry?
The Euro leaned wetter than the GFS on Monday-Tuesday, but we have seen this before. It had 1 to 2 inches, but down at your farm, less.
NWS Kansas City
” Drought conditions are worsening across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. But how do we put this year in perspective. 2012 was the latest very bad drought year in the region. Through July 10th 2012, KCI had developed a precipitation deficit of 7.45″. In 2018 the deficit is 6.26″ through July 10th. That’s a difference of just 1.19″. 2018 has been in deficit for a longer period of time, whereas 2012 developed very rapidly. Regardless, the region needs rainfall. This week’s hot conditions, with little to no rain expected, will only make things worse across the area. “
I don’t know about the rest of the area but every day that it’s been advertised it’s going to make a run at 100 it has hit and exceeded 100 downtown. This summer has been miserable so far. I’m already ready for fall.