Kansas City is about to have its 3rd heat wave of the season:
- Heat Wave #1: 96° on June 14th, 95° on June 15th – June 17th
- Heat Wave #2: 99° on June 28, 97° on June 29th, and 96° on June 30th
- Heat Wave #3: Begins This Week and it will approach 100 degrees, a number that has not been officially reached at KCI Airport in almost 5 years
And, it is getting drier and drier. Based on the early knowledge of this pattern, I thought there was a chance of a major drought expanding over the plains and it was in my forecasts to monitor that was presented in January. When I presented blogging and the LRC at the American Meteorological Society’s conference on January 9th, I shared this graphic:
It is still uncertain how hurricane season will play out, but it has started out active. The average date for the third named storm of the season is August 13th, and we have now had three named storms already. The winter storm did arrive around Presidents Day over the northeast, and the drought has expanded over KC. So, the only forecast yet to show signs of verifying will likely happen around the first of September, the bold hurricane forecast we made months ago.
Tropical Storm Chris will become a hurricane today:
Chris will not threaten the United States as it stays offshore until it clips parts of Canada as a subtropical storm. Back here in KC, it is dry, and the sky is blue. Here is Sunny The Weather Dog showing the blue sky this morning.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. There is no chance of thunderstorms in sight at the moment for the KC metro area. We will continue this discussion on the blog at Weather2020.com, and on 41 Action News tonight.
Gary
In the real world, nobody really cares if it has hit 100 at KCI,…if it has hit a hundred where they live. Has it hit 100 in KC? It sure has in Lawrence, a number of times.
I care! It may be something you do not care about, but I do, because it hasn’t hit 100 degrees since September 8, 2013. It is just a number, but it is a big one. It has hit 100 degrees several times downtown. It is still fascinating.
Gary
I think his point was KCI. As you said, it has hit 100 downtown and other locations as well have hit the century mark in the last five years.
Agree totally with Heat, I could care less what the weather does at KCI. I’m sure that is the same with the folks that live in Lawrence, Olathe, Springhill, Grandview, Lees Summit, etc….
KCI’s weather is totally irrelevant to the majority of us.
Especially when KCI seemingly is the one spot that doesn’t hit 100 when everywhere else has for the past 5 years. KCI is more of a temperature anomaly
It’s a cold spot: surrounded by open plains (not urban development: therefore less urban heat island) and in one of the highest parts of the region (elevation: ~1030 feet).
Regardless of whether large numbers of people live there or not, it is remarkable that any location in this part of the country at all has gone so long without reaching 100.
GFS shows this breaking down by next weekend with some decent chances for rain as fronts are able to penetrate a little better. Are you saying that the GFS is wrong or do you just doubt that solution verifies? Its been showing this on the past several runs, but I guess in drought leave it out. What’s the Euro saying for next weekend? Corn is suffering on a regional level, I’m losing leaves and others are completely curled up and going fast. We need rain in next 8 days or Corn is a bust. Might even be too poor for silage
Yesterday at 00z GFS showed it 105 degress 5 days in a row next weekend. Now it shows the ridge breaking. I think it doesn’t know.
Feast or famine.
Construction workers are able to really get some work done in this dry pattern
Use lawn and landscaping guys are in between if diversified
Irrigation, some have it, some don’t
Riding down MO H Hwy this morning, corn is looking stressed, beans as well.
Ponds in pastures, while kind of low, not bad yet.
Turf on non irrigated properties, toast
Turf on medium watering, stressed in the sun, ok in the shade
Turf on heavily watered, good
The year that was hoped doesn’t look good but never stop hoping that the year still could be good.
Thats it ?
Another short one
But what else is there to say.
Its just that we know what we have gone through in heat waves 1 and 2.
We know that a hurricane was predicted, months ago, for Sept 1
Seems the blog writeups are more about rehashing the old.
with the weather here being dead i was hoping that you would dig deeper into the LRC and what new discoveries you have found with your product.
Headed to Destin FL in two wks. Gary or anyone, what are we thinking for tropical systems around this time frame? Thx
I have friends who just got back from Destin. They said it was hotter and more miserable here than there.
Enjoy !
Just got back from the gulf shores, you can probably expect pop up showers here and there, didn’t last more than 10 minutes. Very nice weather there last week
You had predicted the drought early on like you said. But by spring, you have changed your mind to a wet pattern based on Jeff prediction. You should stick to your prediction.
Yep I remember, Gary said Jeff had talked him into a more of a wet pattern than the drought he originally predicted..
Gary
Sunny will miss that rock she poses on when you move to concrete in the city.
That view that you have is pretty special. Makes fir great photos
TDOGG, you are correct! I live only about 5 miles south of KCI, and have recorded temps at or over 100 several times since 2013. I know KCI is “the official reporting station for greater Kansas City”, but I measure my own rainfall, and temps.
5 miles south of KCI? Where? Weatherby Lake?
Worst.
LRC.
Ever.
Here in Lone Jack my lawn has been hanging on staying green with watering and cutting it real tall. Our household will be out of town on vacation all of next week. I’m wondering if I should just pull the plug on the watering now if its going to be dry all next week. I hate wasting water if its going to end up brown anyways.
I think the streak is cool, I’d like to see numbers guy analyze it. Downtown is a heat island,—at least 3 to 4° hotter.
I’m not sure I’m the “numbers guy” you’re referring to, but this is the fourth-longest 100-less streak, and third-longest if you only include them in the time since 1900. The 1890-1896 and 1901-1909 streaks are at wherever the original station was, and the 1991-1999 and current (2013-2018) are at KCI.
August 2 1991-July 26 1999: 2915 days
August 25 1901-August 16 1909: 2913 days
July 14 1890-August 3 1896: 2212 days
September 8 2013-July 9 2018+: 1765 days and counting
You are the numbers guy. Good information, thank you.
Gary
Thanks, that’s incredible. I would assume that any heat island in the late 1800s early 20th century would be minimal—if any.
My grass is green…what drought?
Mine is too little sister.
Imitation is the finest form of flattery
Im flattered then…
I want snow.
Well, Snow Meiser it looks like there will not be any snow here until at least November or December. However, you can always visit South America where there is snow in the Andes. You can check it out here. https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/samerica Does not look like they are having a stellar year in terms of snowfall amounts.
In reviewing both the Euro and the GFS, the heat and dome of high pressure does not appear to break down until early next week at least with the GFS. The GFS shows it to be starting on Monday and lasting through Wednesday/Thursday before the next heat wave. The Euro unfortunately does not show a break in the temps. The GFS also shows more rainfall than the Euro with the Euro showing a similar pattern we seen before in which the rain is in an arch type pattern starting in southern Colorado, extending to the NE into Nebraska and then arching over into Iowa. Here is link with rainfall totals for the Euro through Thursday morning the 19th of July. Below this is the rainfall total for the GFS model run.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180719-1200z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180719-1200z.html
Stay cool and hydrated folks. Either way, the temps look to be brutal, especially with the high humidity. Please watch out for your pets, since the hot concrete can burn their pads. If outdoors, they need shade and plenty of water.
Funny you should say that, I’ve been regularly looking at the GFS snow modeling for South America lately:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018070918/gfs_asnow_samer_41.png
And this is another site I like to track this time of year:
http://snowreport.co.za/
CLINTON LAKE, U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS
While Clinton Lake may be in the orange, much of our watershed is in the red. Please remember to always be water wise and conserve water where possible.
KANSAS WATER OFFICE
Today Dr. Jeff Colyer updated the #DroughtDeclaration for #Kansas counties with an Executive Order. The order includes all 105 counties in an emergency, warning or watch status. This now places nearly half of #KS counties in an emergency drought status. https://goo.gl/JQwGBa #ksdrought #kswater
Kansas Department of Agriculture Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks and Tourism Kansas Department of Health and Environment NRCS U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Kansas Division of Emergency Management Tulsa District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Kansas City District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers WIBW Jeremy Goodwin Kansas Farm Bureau Kansas Livestock Association
Ol MT is at it again. He has FIVE 100 degree days in long ranger. One of them being 101.
I’m going with Lezak’s 99
No surpris when Gary showed Olathe has surpassed St. Joe in rain deficit.
Olathe 10 inches below norm
St. Joe 8 inches below
My yard is nearing the shredded wheat stage.
Can LRC predict typhoons? Where is this storm in this year LRC?
https://earther.com/the-most-powerful-storm-on-earth-is-bearing-down-japan-1827446137
Looks like a monster.
I think Gary has said that the LRC is focussed on N. America.
I could be wrong though. I need o let Gary answer that one.
4th Heat Wave of the year beginning here in St. Joseph, including already having our earliest 100 Degree day in recorded history on May 26th.
May 26-29…..(102°, 99°, 97°, 96°)
June 14-18….( 97°, 97°, 97°, 96°, 96°)
June 28-30….( 97°, 97°, 95°)
Highest Heat Index so far was 117° On June 28th
102 on May 26th ? Didn’t know that.
Was that an official reading ?
I would say it would have been the earliest 100 had it happened in the metro.
Do you have the stat on earliest 100 for KC metro in recorded history.
( I don’t consider Lawrence as part of the metro. Viewing area yes, but not metro)
Speaking of, what counties are considered KC metro ?
Yes, that 102° was the official high temperature in Saint Joe on May 26. I’ll look it up for the Kansas City area what the earliest 100° day is
It is not even hot out yet! I remember city restrictions on watering and worries of electrical problems on a.c usage. Come on people get real! so what if your precious grass dies off a little Are you out of water? are the flies buzzing your food ? do you have to worry about keeping your infant cool?
I got a heavy rain shower here north of Columbia this afternoon. Great to see it. So, if Buffalo, OK can go from no precipitation this fall/winter to 15+” in two events, I suppose it’s possible that this trend could change, but it sure seems like to me that we are in for a long hot summer, then a long hot fall into a warm dry winter. With El Niño on the hirizon I can’t see it getting any better.