View Larger Image One Of The Stranger Droughts Gary 2018-07-08T11:33:02+00:00 July 6th, 2018|General|33 Comments Share This Amazing Location! 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REAL HUMEDUDE July 6, 2018 at 10:15 am - Reply Forget 7 days, we may well go 14+ with no rain and middle to upper 90s to boot. GFS doesn’t show a front or system impacting us until around the 20th. That is if it doesn’t POOF on the next run, I’m not holding my breath on anything for time being. We are firmly entrenched in drought until further notice f00dl3 July 6, 2018 at 10:07 am - Reply If you look historically at the drought monitor, this is not that unusual. Many times droughts that start out severe over the southwest expand north with time until in October the exceptional drought areas are much further north. This happened a lot in the 90s that one year Minnesota/South Dakota/North Dakota had a really bad drought – we started getting wet come summer months, but they really dried out. This year it looks like that axis just shifted up to us instead of much further north. Same concept, really. Just we are the ones that will be in exceptional drought in a month or so, not Minneapolis. Anonymous July 6, 2018 at 10:18 am - Reply A bigger story is the Cat2 hurricane that is forecast to be just off the Outer Banks by Wednesday. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112106&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=0 Craig July 6, 2018 at 10:18 am - Reply A bigger story is the Cat2 hurricane that is forecast to be just off the Outer Banks by Wednesday. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112106&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=0 Gary July 6, 2018 at 10:40 am - Reply Remember the “bomb cyclone”. And, if you understand the LRC. Wow! Right on schedule. Richard July 6, 2018 at 11:21 am - Reply Bombogenesis? Tim July 6, 2018 at 11:01 am - Reply After looking at the GFS– one word –“Upwelling”. Definitely not been factored in to that model or any model when a storm is expected to spin in the same place for days on end. Mark July 6, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply How many people are you? Steve July 6, 2018 at 10:21 am - Reply Morning Flash Flood Warning for Salina. Me, 8 miles west of Salina: .06. It’s been this way since last fall! REAL HUMEDUDE July 6, 2018 at 10:41 am - Reply Steve…..is there anything more maddening than watching a big rain storm just a few miles away that refuses to move over your farm? I’ve been sitting there in my desperately dry bean field, watching cells to my west, east, south, and north while I’m in a doughnut hole that never filled in. Reminds me of Paul Harvey’s ode to the American farmer, takes a mentally tough person to take these gut punches on such a routine basis. Good luck out there Farmermike July 6, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply don’t ya just hate it when ya can see it and smell it but ya cant touch it Dan M. July 6, 2018 at 10:28 am - Reply Not really sure why this is a strange drought. Our strongest storms tend to move from in from the southwest. Looking at the drought map, draw a line from the Texas panhandle northeast and its easy to see that the drought has just expanded northeast as no storms are forming in Texas/New Mexico and moving northeast. In recent years, most of Nebraska, northern and western Kansas have been the ones experiencing drought conditions. It just appears to me that the drought/dry pattern has shifted southeast this year. Good for them as they really needed a break. This is only strange if we just continually focus on the small picture in our backyards. Tim July 6, 2018 at 11:06 am - Reply Is it no surprise this headline has not been on the news?? “Big Drop In CSU’s Atlantic Hurricane Outlook; Quiet Atlantic, Active Pacific” ….Chiller-than-usual waters in the eastern North Atlantic have prodded the forecast group based at Colorado State University to reduce the amount of tropical cyclone activity they project for 2018 from the values predicted only one month ago….. https://www.gulfcoasthurricanecenter.com/big-drop-in-csus-atlantic-hurricane-outlook-quiet-atlantic-active-pacific/ NoBeachHere July 6, 2018 at 2:27 pm - Reply That’s part of the discussion on the AMO, some say a neg. AMO, some say pos. AMO. North Atlantic doesn’t have or expects tropical development but in Southern part, yes. Cape Verd season is right around the corner, problem this year may very well be the same as 2016(?). The dust and sand being blown out over the Atlantic created an unfavorable area for tropical development. Add in the upper shear this year, we may only get Caribbean, Gulf and East Coast development. What’s unexpected is the amount of sst variations in the mid and southern latitude development areas. What I’d like to see is some of the gulf lows or tropical systems Work up towards us. That may be when cold fronts finally start moving through our region again only to suppress those storms and keep the south. I am always hopeful for rain but short term with quasi ridge waffling around, weak jet stream, sw forcing and a continued dysfunctional pattern, it just doesn’t look very good. Even if we combine both Heady and LRC trends, maybe late July, most likely next month, will we see some new things or the current LRC get charged a bit. Richard July 6, 2018 at 11:39 am - Reply global warming, climate change, carbon clock emissions, The barrel graph animation is especially intriguing http://www.globalwarmingindex.org http://globalwarmingindex.org/AWI/info_page.html http://www.trillionthtonne.org https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/carbon-clock/ Methodology for the carbon clock: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/carbon-clock/BLOOMBERG-CARBON-CLOCK-TECHNICAL-WORKING-PAPER.pdf Barrel graph mesmerizing animation https://www.vox.com/2017/11/7/16612498/climate-change-carbon-dioxide-co2-temperature-animation Richard July 6, 2018 at 11:41 am - Reply Gary I have one with several links that is being held up. Can you get the moderator to approve, unflag it please ? Thanks Mr. Pete July 6, 2018 at 1:14 pm - Reply Looking out my window, no evidence of a drought. Everything is very green. Looks nothing like it did in 2012 at this time. REAL HUMEDUDE July 6, 2018 at 3:57 pm - Reply Pete, all due respect buddy the view from your window is small caption of the region. It’s dry out there and my yard in Shawnee is totally brown and dormant, you won’t be long behind me. Mr. Pete July 6, 2018 at 9:12 pm - Reply This doesn’t even compare to 2012 though. KS Jones July 6, 2018 at 1:52 pm - Reply This chart shows the normal high temperature in Topeka doesn’t reach 90° until July 11th. It never goes above 90°, and then drops below 90° on August 10th. https://www.weather.gov/media/top/climate/Topeka_temp_daily_high_low_normals.pdf MikeL July 6, 2018 at 2:56 pm - Reply Here at my house in SW Topeka it doesn’t rain much, but we have day after day of 70+ degree dew points. The humidity has been awful. I guess I picked a bad year to paint my house. Rockdoc July 6, 2018 at 4:44 pm - Reply It’s currently 94 degrees here in Prairie Village. Light breeze with a few puffy cotton ball clouds. Perfect day for being at the pool. 🏊🏊 Next week the heat returns. Just hope the humidity stays low. f00dl3 July 6, 2018 at 5:00 pm - Reply I think it’s a tell tale sign we are in drought when the cold front was supposed to knock us into the 80s today into Sunday, now looks like we will only go back to the lower 90s. Tdogg July 6, 2018 at 5:37 pm - Reply This is the wettest drought ever. I’ve been mowing my grass like crazy. C’mon guys, be positive….big players on the field lmao!! Good to see Hume doesn’t even farm the ground he “owns”….change your name to Shawneedude REAL HUMEDUDE July 6, 2018 at 5:59 pm - Reply 90% of people don’t plant their own crops TDOGG. Takes about 500-800K investment to get a planter and a combine. Our 280 tilled acres ain’t worth it. I’m there multiple times a week caring for our cows though. Why am I even talking to a troll…. Kstater July 6, 2018 at 7:04 pm - Reply People need to remember everyone gets a different amount of rain at there house/land so just because it is wet or dry where you are doesn’t mean that is the case everywhere. snowflakeparkville July 7, 2018 at 12:20 am - Reply We’re going to get torched. Great. As some reassuring news, 2015, 2016, and 2017 were all more than six inches above average precipitation, so it’s not like California, which started its drought a few years ago while already dried out. Mike July 7, 2018 at 8:25 am - Reply Hurricane Beryl has weakened overnight: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-beryl-saturday-20180707-story.html Lary Gezak July 7, 2018 at 8:34 am - Reply I was at my girlfriend’s house when this happened. Two houses down. Crazy to see that once all of the fire trucks & other emergency vehicles left, just about every news station showed up. I’m pretty sure the house got damaged too from the strike Snow Miser July 7, 2018 at 10:28 am - Reply The roofer has died. 🙁 I was looking out my back window during the storm and saw this one lightning bolt to my south. I wonder if that was the one that hit him. Catl July 7, 2018 at 10:44 am - Reply Ok Gary, it seems pretty clear to me that to expect any significant change in our current weather pattern is pointless. Regardless of the variables at play (cold fronts, would-be hurricanes and tropical storms, etc.) it isn’t going to matter. We’re going to be very hot, with sporadic storms here and there. If you look at the drought map, it aligns with what you would typically expect in a La Niña year. So I’m questioning how much influence the LRC really even has? If it’s the biggest piece of the puzzle, then why doesn’t it win out over the other factors? I’m sure the quick answer is “it does!” But I’d have to respectfully disagree. I travel extensively for work throughout the Midwest, Texas and Oklahoma and have seen the OK panhandle go from over 200 days without a drop of moisture to a deluge a few weeks ago and major flooding. How is this an impact of the LRC from October to now? Lastly, can we really expect a significant change in our weather pattern come October? It seems like we’ve been trending towards dry and hot for the last couple of years and with El Niño on the horizon, can we really expect it to change? I know there are those who say that we typically have snowy winters after hot, dry summers but is that really based in fact? If we see a 3” plus snow storm this winter I’ll eat my hat. Richard July 7, 2018 at 2:09 pm - Reply He won’t answer you. Need to ask this again in Monday when he writes the blog. but one thing you said, if OK weather can “turn on a dime”, then why would ir not be possible here too ? 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