4th Of July Eve Forecast

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Richard
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Richard

New blog is up
Happy 4th everyone

FDRLincoln
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FDRLincoln

I think the LRC exists, as there does seem to be good evidence that the longwave pattern does cycle over a 4-6 week period. However, trying to take that pattern and make an operational forecast out of it is still in the very early stages.

Catl
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Catl

I just don’t see how this even fits the pattern at all. I think the LRC hypothesis is trying to run before it crawls. Clearly there is still a lot that is not understood, so trying to make predictions and forecasts at this point is only proving to aggravate people.

Katharidinaus
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Katharidinaus

And there seems to be a developing extreme heat signal in the models… Not looking good for comfort or agricultural interests…

j-ox
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j-ox

Lawrence Journal World reporting 10.05″ below seasonal avg as of today. (9.66″ / 19.71″)
Still green-ish around here – but w/ an increasing chance of toast. 🙂

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

I find that hard to believe…I know are below normal..but we have had a fair share off rain in Lawrence this year.

Troy Newman
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Troy Newman

A couple years ago we had a good year rainfall wise with well above normal rains. There was a spot about the size of half a county about an hour to my NW that was in a moderate drought however. It was surrounded by nothing but above normal rainfall. We drove through there on our way to Hastings a couple times and the crops were burnt up and everything looked terrible. It lasted for about 15-20 miles then everything looked great again. That had to be one of the most frustrating weather patterns if you lived there.

Real Humedude
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Real Humedude

Even with 1.1″ last Sunday, the creek is just a tiny trickle right now. My abnormally dry area is def closer to D1 than just dry. Bigger cracks showing up, grass is going dormant in higher areas while my bottoms are still hanging in there they wont for long without more substantial rainfall. I watched a big storm complex hit Amarillo last night, they have been getting plenty of rains down there as of late. Cant help but think that the major axis of drought has shifted substantially towards our area while relaxing in TX/OK panhandles and western KS. Can… Read more »

Troy Newman
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Troy Newman

Just drove back from Raton, NM. Its dry there but Western KS and even the OK panhandle looks great right now. I have went from dry to wet in the last 45 days with about 12″ over that time here in NC KS. Definitely weird weather.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

This area is only 1.3″ below average for the YTD, and yet wet-weather streams that normally flow through late winter and spring until June have been dry here for the past 6 months. Contact springs at high elevations (that flowed well all through 2012) are now merely mud holes, because all of our significant rain events have been fast toad stranglers, and it takes gentle rains over an extended period of hours to recharge the water table in the bluffs. Fast & furious rainfalls are good at keeping ponds filled, rivers high and short rooted lawn grasses green, but for… Read more »

KS Jones
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KS Jones

oops, needed the htm for the link to Kansas Springs to work.
http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Publications/pic11/pic11_1.htm

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Cats don’t like fireworks either

Tdogg
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Tdogg

LRC

Lonely
Richard
Complains

Time for new hobby.

Richard
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Richard

dogg
Nice to see you.
Wouldn’t be the same here without your trolling hobby or my hobby of complaining.
But I’m sure everyone else here would like to see less of both.

Have a bang-up 4th dogg and those who are true bloggers !!

Remember pets and vets who are terrified of loud noises. The struggle is real !!

Jason
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Jason

Certainly in a drought south of Lawrence. We have missed the last few storms. Less than .50″ the last few weeks.

Mike Holm
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Mike Holm

To borrow a term for mower Mike, I would call this a wet drought. I remember 2012 because I was taking care of the football field at Englewood Park. Go to Google Earth and look up Englewood Park 64118. There’s a historical tab. Click on that and go to September 2012 (September 2006 looks identical as well). That’s what a drought looks like. I had 8 large sprinkler heads so the field was perfectly green and everything else was completely brown. Looks like the year after 2012 was pretty dry too, from the photos.

Richard
Guest
Richard

“Now, do not go into denial here; Kansas City is in a growing drought.”

Garys words, not mine
What does that even mean
A drought that is growing.
A drought that is getting closer or getting worse where there is a drought

CC
Guest
CC

I think he means that people say things like my yard is still green how are we in a drought.

Mike
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Mike

Gary. What are your thoughts?
“http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2018/07/experts_now_predict_a_below-av.html”

Richard
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Richard

You need to remove the quotation marks to make that link clickable

Richard
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Richard

Heavy rain / flood warnings in NOLA and Minneapolis.
Don’t want flooding here but an all day rain would be nice

Ben
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Ben

Gary,

Is there any hope this can turn around this summer or are we stuck here till a new pattern forms? I’m not seeing any precip in the two week forecast. Not good for the farming community

Richard
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Richard

Gary
The blog writeup is missing here again. 4th time now in the last 2 weeks
Go to kshb everyone

Richard
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Richard

Thanks Gary

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser