New blog is up
Happy 4th everyone
I think the LRC exists, as there does seem to be good evidence that the longwave pattern does cycle over a 4-6 week period. However, trying to take that pattern and make an operational forecast out of it is still in the very early stages.
Absolutely! It is in the early stages. I personally have been improving over the past 15 years, and Weather2020 has not even come close to mastering these forecasts, but there is not a better system out there. The LRC, which describes the cycling pattern, is almost flawless, as the pattern continues to cycle. There is organization to the chaos. Predicting where a storm will be located is close to 100% accurate when using the LRC, but forecasting for every location is where the accuracy will take a hit.
Every location ?? We are talking about forecast accuracy of a big area. Mainly these temps ! An ABRUPT 180 from what we went through this winter. Why are the cold fronts stopping at KC doorstep since May 1
Military / CIA weather manipulation ops
Tougher immigration enforcement at the Iowa border.
They aren’t Richard. This next one is not stalling.
I just don’t see how this even fits the pattern at all. I think the LRC hypothesis is trying to run before it crawls. Clearly there is still a lot that is not understood, so trying to make predictions and forecasts at this point is only proving to aggravate people.
It is accurate forecast after accurate forecast. So, I am not sure where you are coming from here. Weather2020 is on a roll with these forecasts. Which forecasts are you considering wrong. Even, this week was forecast to be into the lower 80s and by Friday it will be in the lower to middle 80s, both Friday and Saturday. The severe weather forecasts, drought forecasts, flooding forecasts, winter storm forecasts, Arctic outbreak forecasts have been predicted accurately over and over again in the past few years.
OK. Not attacking the LRC and not naive to think that forecasting is a simple and straightforward process. But I think people are having a tough time reconciling the long range forecasts based upon the LRC with what we are actually getting. For example, the 12 week forecast for my area has next week as 85 and several chances of showers. However, when you look at the 10 day forecast, there is not a single day below 89 (in fact many days are forecasted in the mid 90s) without any real chances of rain. I know it has been explained… Read more »
I don’t blame any of you who judge the LRC on those 12-week forecasts, but it is not the best measure.
Gary that is wrong ! On the 12 week, for THIS week does not say lower 80’s. – Current 91°F / 72°F This week will see several chances of thunderstorms as a series of disturbances tracks from the west and northwest out of the Rockies. The 4th of July looks mostly dry and very warm for most locations. The exception: northwest Kansas to central and western Nebraska may see thunderstorms the evening of the 4th. Go to Weather2020.com to join the LRC Forecast Experience Blog, learn more about this breakthrough technology, and interact with our community. Gary why are you… Read more »
Wrong Richard. The forecast for this week is low to mid 80s on that forecast made 12 weeks ago. The forecast is for an entire week. It will be in the lower to middle 80s.
Not short at all Richard, try not to be so sensitive. I am just laying down the facts. When a forecast is right it is right. So often it is discussed how a forecast is wrong, when it isn’t. So, I am just laying it out there for you. We have been on a roll.
And there seems to be a developing extreme heat signal in the models… Not looking good for comfort or agricultural interests…
Lawrence Journal World reporting 10.05″ below seasonal avg as of today. (9.66″ / 19.71″)
Still green-ish around here – but w/ an increasing chance of toast. 🙂
I find that hard to believe…I know are below normal..but we have had a fair share off rain in Lawrence this year.
A couple years ago we had a good year rainfall wise with well above normal rains. There was a spot about the size of half a county about an hour to my NW that was in a moderate drought however. It was surrounded by nothing but above normal rainfall. We drove through there on our way to Hastings a couple times and the crops were burnt up and everything looked terrible. It lasted for about 15-20 miles then everything looked great again. That had to be one of the most frustrating weather patterns if you lived there.
Even with 1.1″ last Sunday, the creek is just a tiny trickle right now. My abnormally dry area is def closer to D1 than just dry. Bigger cracks showing up, grass is going dormant in higher areas while my bottoms are still hanging in there they wont for long without more substantial rainfall. I watched a big storm complex hit Amarillo last night, they have been getting plenty of rains down there as of late. Cant help but think that the major axis of drought has shifted substantially towards our area while relaxing in TX/OK panhandles and western KS. Can… Read more »
Just drove back from Raton, NM. Its dry there but Western KS and even the OK panhandle looks great right now. I have went from dry to wet in the last 45 days with about 12″ over that time here in NC KS. Definitely weird weather.
This area is only 1.3″ below average for the YTD, and yet wet-weather streams that normally flow through late winter and spring until June have been dry here for the past 6 months. Contact springs at high elevations (that flowed well all through 2012) are now merely mud holes, because all of our significant rain events have been fast toad stranglers, and it takes gentle rains over an extended period of hours to recharge the water table in the bluffs. Fast & furious rainfalls are good at keeping ponds filled, rivers high and short rooted lawn grasses green, but for… Read more »
oops, needed the htm for the link to Kansas Springs to work.
Cats don’t like fireworks either
Time for new hobby.
Nice to see you.
Wouldn’t be the same here without your trolling hobby or my hobby of complaining.
But I’m sure everyone else here would like to see less of both.
Have a bang-up 4th dogg and those who are true bloggers !!
Remember pets and vets who are terrified of loud noises. The struggle is real !!
Certainly in a drought south of Lawrence. We have missed the last few storms. Less than .50″ the last few weeks.
To borrow a term for mower Mike, I would call this a wet drought. I remember 2012 because I was taking care of the football field at Englewood Park. Go to Google Earth and look up Englewood Park 64118. There’s a historical tab. Click on that and go to September 2012 (September 2006 looks identical as well). That’s what a drought looks like. I had 8 large sprinkler heads so the field was perfectly green and everything else was completely brown. Looks like the year after 2012 was pretty dry too, from the photos.
“Now, do not go into denial here; Kansas City is in a growing drought.”
Garys words, not mine
What does that even mean
A drought that is growing.
A drought that is getting closer or getting worse where there is a drought
I think he means that people say things like my yard is still green how are we in a drought.
Gary. What are your thoughts?
You need to remove the quotation marks to make that link clickable
They are wrong quite often.
Heavy rain / flood warnings in NOLA and Minneapolis.
Don’t want flooding here but an all day rain would be nice
Is there any hope this can turn around this summer or are we stuck here till a new pattern forms? I’m not seeing any precip in the two week forecast. Not good for the farming community
The blog writeup is missing here again. 4th time now in the last 2 weeks
Go to kshb everyone
Think cool thoughts:
Many people believe forecasting the weather more than a week out is impossible, that it’s simply chaos. Not true. While the weather constantly changes, there are very specific patterns that can be used to forecast for months at a time.