A Cold Front Is On The Way

/A Cold Front Is On The Way

A Cold Front Is On The Way

Good Saturday bloggers,

Today will be the third straight day with a high above 95°, which means we are having our second heat wave of the season. This will be a three day heat wave as a cold front arrives later tonight and drifts through Sunday. We will have a chance of thunderstorms, but as usual, not all yards or farms will see rain. It will cool down, but this is not an open the window break from the heat. The humidity will stay up and high temperatures will drop only to the mid and upper 80s.

The high, officially at KCI reached 99° Thursday and 97° Friday. So, our streak of not reaching 100° has grown to 1756 days. This streak will hold today, but may be broken next week. The 3″ snowstorm streak may last another 4-5 months, or longer. Now, the 1″ rain streak may get broken tomorrow. Remember, this year we are in a 44-51 day cycle, so if it rains 1″ tomorrow, on day 46, it would not be a shock.

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There may be scattered thunderstorms in far northeast Kansas and far northwest Missouri this evening, northwest of KC. There is a slight chance of a few thunderstorms around here after 5 PM, but it will be mostly dry through midnight. The best chance of thunderstorms in KC is later tonight into early Sunday morning.

7

The early morning severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center shows the main threat will be across eastern Nebraska and Iowa. We are on the southeast edge and it is mainly for later tonight. Northwest Missouri may see a few severe thunderstorms this evening. Damaging winds and flash flooding are the main threats. These thunderstorms can produce rainfall rates of 2″-3″ per hour. The other day when the tornado hit Lake Lotawana there were reports of 1.30″ of rain in 20-30 minutes!

2

SATURDAY EVENING (4-6 PM): The cold front will be located from central Kansas to northwest Iowa and that is where the best chance for big thunderstorms will be located. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible from far northeast Kansas to far northwest Missouri, northwest of KC. There is a slight chance of a few brief thunderstorms around here.

3

SATURDAY NIGHT (6 PM-MIDNIGHT): The main show for thunderstorms will be found across Nebraska and Iowa, along the cold front. Our area will be mostly dry, warm and humid through midnight. Again, a few thunderstorms are possible around here before midnight.

4

MIDNIGHT SATURDAY-10 AM SUNDAY: The cold front will approach as a weak disturbance arrives from the southwest. These features will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few of the thunderstorms may have damaging winds and cause flash flooding. There will be yards and farms that receive no rain and some that see 1″-2″ of rain. This data has the heaviest rain between Overland Park and Pleasanton. These downpours could end up just about anywhere.

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SUNDAY AFTER 10 AM: Thunderstorms will exit, and the afternoon will be cooler with highs in the 80s along with more clouds. The humidity will still be high, so this is not an “open the windows” break from the heat. If new thunderstorms form, they will likely occur in southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. So, if you miss the rain by noon Sunday, you will likely be waiting another 5-7 days.

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The heat will return Tuesday, including the 4th of July. We will have a closer look at that on Sunday.

Have a great weekend,

Jeff Penner

2018-07-01T18:12:31+00:00 June 30th, 2018|General|36 Comments

36 Comments

  1. TDogg June 30, 2018 at 10:18 am - Reply

    Second blog in a week with a title and no additional information. Nuff said I guess.

    • Richard June 30, 2018 at 2:14 pm - Reply

      3rd one !
      Gary is still on vaca, Jeff is not minding the store.
      Its probably over on the kshb site/blog like it was the last 2 times.
      They compose it over there, and its supposed to duplicate over here.
      Ridiculous.
      This didnt happen when it was a pay to play blog.

  2. ClassyCat June 30, 2018 at 11:11 am - Reply

    It’s invisible. It needs a reagent.

  3. Elizabeth June 30, 2018 at 12:27 pm - Reply

    How hard is it to go to the KSHB website and read it there??

  4. Brian June 30, 2018 at 2:00 pm - Reply

    Pop up storm in op just now

  5. Richard June 30, 2018 at 2:20 pm - Reply

    Yep, the full blog is over at

    http://weatherblog.kshb.com

    Written by Jeff.
    He obviousky does not know which button to push to make it duplicate over here.
    In times past when Gary was on vaca he at least would “check in, but no more.
    I oersonally think he is getting ready to call it a day, retire.
    His blogs have gotten shorter abd shorter.
    Maybe the extra activities he is involved in, or paying clients, or whatever, taking up more of his time than before.

    • JoeK June 30, 2018 at 5:02 pm - Reply

      The stuff you come up with is🤪

  6. Gtownstephen June 30, 2018 at 2:32 pm - Reply

    Pouring rain at 119th and metcalf for the last half hour.. at least an inch

  7. Nick June 30, 2018 at 2:59 pm - Reply

    It’s really not that big of a deal, I just go over to the kshb site to read it, its not more then a few second extra long thing to go over there and read the blog, I’m sure it will be fixed soon 🙂

  8. MattinLeavenworth June 30, 2018 at 3:13 pm - Reply

    Tdogg it’s not like there is anything exciting going on to blog about.

  9. Snow Miser June 30, 2018 at 3:31 pm - Reply

    HRRR is looking really good

    • Anonymous June 30, 2018 at 3:37 pm - Reply

      Is it showing some rain for us? Also is it picking up on the hit and miss stuff showing up on radar now?

    • Jordan June 30, 2018 at 3:59 pm - Reply

      Oh, boy! Garbage thundershowers less than a mile from me again to stabilize the atmosphere so I don’t get a damn drop!

    • Jordan June 30, 2018 at 4:01 pm - Reply

      Sorry Snow Miser, I didn’t mean my preceding post to be a response to yours.

    • Snow Miser June 30, 2018 at 6:16 pm - Reply

      HRRR is no longer looking as good.

  10. Nate June 30, 2018 at 4:12 pm - Reply

    Doesn’t really matter, at this point these quick lines of storms don’t do a damn thing. People say every little bit helps but it really doesn’t

    • JoeK June 30, 2018 at 5:09 pm - Reply

      Nate

      I realize it may seem that way, but every single rain, big or small, does in fact have an impact on soil conditions, crops, plants, grass…..and so on. I know it is frustrating to get teased, but this is our pattern for a few more months. We will have a few systems break through every cycle that will keep us just below any serious drought issues. We will stay dry for sure , but nothing what Northern Texas or California has had to endure.

  11. Matt June 30, 2018 at 4:23 pm - Reply

    STW KCK and so on. They keep updating SPC Outlook and expanding Slight Risk to the South but not more into KC area.

  12. Jordan June 30, 2018 at 4:38 pm - Reply

    I’m starting to think that area of subsident air has shrunk down and is only over my neighborhood now. We’ve literally had storms all around us today, within a few miles to the west, east, south, and north, and not a drop here in the northernmost part of central Wyandotte County. Same thing that happened with that line that formed the tornado last week, and the last front to blow through before then.

    • Jordan June 30, 2018 at 5:00 pm - Reply

      RAIN!!!! NICE, SOAKING RAIN!!!!!

      • NoBeachHere June 30, 2018 at 7:34 pm - Reply

        Send some Liberty way please
        And I’m glad you got some rain.

  13. Nick June 30, 2018 at 4:44 pm - Reply

    60 percent chance of a STW in the area( including St. Joe.)

  14. Matt June 30, 2018 at 4:44 pm - Reply

    Watch might be need for area.

  15. Matt June 30, 2018 at 5:00 pm - Reply

    Watch into 11pm.

  16. MattinLeavenworth June 30, 2018 at 5:28 pm - Reply

    Man, some quick showers here in downtown leavenworth but across the river into platte county it looks real dark. Guy at the gas station said he just crossed the river from there about 20 Min ago and had to pull over it was raining so hard with some hail too

  17. Matt June 30, 2018 at 5:33 pm - Reply

    STW again for like Platte County and so on.

  18. Snow Miser June 30, 2018 at 7:06 pm - Reply

    That has got to be the straightest line of thundershowers in the history of the planet.

  19. Blue Flash June 30, 2018 at 7:17 pm - Reply
  20. MattinLeavenworth June 30, 2018 at 8:13 pm - Reply

    .87 inches of rain in what felt like just a 30-40 minute session of it. It was like a monsoon up here. Few limbs down up here. Rain was sideways.

  21. Rockdoc June 30, 2018 at 9:16 pm - Reply

    Looks like most mets missed the potential for rain this afternoon in Overland Park area. It ballooned up quite suddenly. KCTV5 did show possible showers to the north of KC, but not south unless I missed it as the model zipped through time.

    That GOES Satellite Site is a keeper for sure. Check out this particular band that shows the whole system really explode this evening. Its the shortwave IR band. I set it to 72 frames over time.

    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=umv&band=07&length=72

  22. Anonymous June 30, 2018 at 10:44 pm - Reply

    Anybody have any input on whether that line of storms out west will hold together and see it here?

  23. Nick June 30, 2018 at 11:54 pm - Reply

    goes16 is awesome, I love looking at the different parameters, seeing the cities show up on the IR with the heat islands, seeing the grassfires show up, seeing dust, smoke and gravity waves move through the clouds it really is neat. we had a big storm in St. Joe this evening, lots of lightning gusty winds and lost power at the house while I was at work for about an hour. I will say that it SEEMS that even though this area is still struggling overall, it seems better here in St. Joe to me this summer, it seems that at least we are not the epicenter anymore and we seem to be doing ok now with getting some of the storms, so if this keeps up, this summer will likely be hot, and humid with the occasional decent storm here.

  24. Bill in Lawrence July 1, 2018 at 6:42 am - Reply

    Gary and Jeff:

    Happy very nice and much cooler Sunday morning to both of you!!

    It is not “cool” out per se, but compared to the past 4 mornings it is fantastic out this morning.

    Wound up with .20 from last night’s event with a few strong wind gusts. That brings my past 5 week total to .70….at least it is not 1859!!!!

    Have a great Sunday

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  25. KS Jones July 1, 2018 at 8:23 am - Reply

    Got 1.12″ of rain during the latest rain event (our eighth), which brought our total June precipitation to 6.72″ here (midway between Manhattan & Marysville).

    • KS Jones July 1, 2018 at 8:50 am - Reply

      June rain breakdown.
      June 2: 1.59″ 
      June 4: 0.03″ of  drizzle 
      June 9: 0.12″ 
      June 11: 0.09″
      June 18: 1.58″ 
      June 19: 0.72″ 
      June 20: 0.49″
      June 24: 0.98″ 
      June 30: 1.12″
      Total: 6.72″

  26. Blue Flash July 1, 2018 at 8:47 am - Reply

    0.8″ in west central Independence

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