Good Saturday bloggers,
Today will be the third straight day with a high above 95°, which means we are having our second heat wave of the season. This will be a three day heat wave as a cold front arrives later tonight and drifts through Sunday. We will have a chance of thunderstorms, but as usual, not all yards or farms will see rain. It will cool down, but this is not an open the window break from the heat. The humidity will stay up and high temperatures will drop only to the mid and upper 80s.
The high, officially at KCI reached 99° Thursday and 97° Friday. So, our streak of not reaching 100° has grown to 1756 days. This streak will hold today, but may be broken next week. The 3″ snowstorm streak may last another 4-5 months, or longer. Now, the 1″ rain streak may get broken tomorrow. Remember, this year we are in a 44-51 day cycle, so if it rains 1″ tomorrow, on day 46, it would not be a shock.
There may be scattered thunderstorms in far northeast Kansas and far northwest Missouri this evening, northwest of KC. There is a slight chance of a few thunderstorms around here after 5 PM, but it will be mostly dry through midnight. The best chance of thunderstorms in KC is later tonight into early Sunday morning.
The early morning severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center shows the main threat will be across eastern Nebraska and Iowa. We are on the southeast edge and it is mainly for later tonight. Northwest Missouri may see a few severe thunderstorms this evening. Damaging winds and flash flooding are the main threats. These thunderstorms can produce rainfall rates of 2″-3″ per hour. The other day when the tornado hit Lake Lotawana there were reports of 1.30″ of rain in 20-30 minutes!
SATURDAY EVENING (4-6 PM): The cold front will be located from central Kansas to northwest Iowa and that is where the best chance for big thunderstorms will be located. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible from far northeast Kansas to far northwest Missouri, northwest of KC. There is a slight chance of a few brief thunderstorms around here.
SATURDAY NIGHT (6 PM-MIDNIGHT): The main show for thunderstorms will be found across Nebraska and Iowa, along the cold front. Our area will be mostly dry, warm and humid through midnight. Again, a few thunderstorms are possible around here before midnight.
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY-10 AM SUNDAY: The cold front will approach as a weak disturbance arrives from the southwest. These features will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few of the thunderstorms may have damaging winds and cause flash flooding. There will be yards and farms that receive no rain and some that see 1″-2″ of rain. This data has the heaviest rain between Overland Park and Pleasanton. These downpours could end up just about anywhere.
SUNDAY AFTER 10 AM: Thunderstorms will exit, and the afternoon will be cooler with highs in the 80s along with more clouds. The humidity will still be high, so this is not an “open the windows” break from the heat. If new thunderstorms form, they will likely occur in southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. So, if you miss the rain by noon Sunday, you will likely be waiting another 5-7 days.
The heat will return Tuesday, including the 4th of July. We will have a closer look at that on Sunday.
Have a great weekend,