A Summer Storm On The First Day Of Summer

/A Summer Storm On The First Day Of Summer

A Summer Storm On The First Day Of Summer

Good morning bloggers,

Over the weekend we discussed “A strong LRC argument for a wet week ahead”.  The weather pattern is cycling and there is tremendous organization to what seems like chaos in the river of air flowing across the Northern Hemisphere.  You can learn more about by clicking here and reading the peer reviewed paper: Cycling Patterns of the Northern Hemisphere.  I showed clearly that the weather pattern was cycling through the part of the pattern that produced a huge October rain event in Kansas City.  From Gary England, “Lezak, I saw it, I saw the LRC, It’s the same, but different”.  Gary England saw the pattern back in 2009 when a major winter storm was taking aim in Oklahoma City, and I was sharing with Gary something special that he could use to forecast that winter storm.  The same pattern that cycled through in October is now cycling through in June, so when this storm shows up later this week, and you hear from other meteorologists how unusual it is, just know that this is the sixth time through the cycling pattern that this part of the pattern has affected us.  This is the storm I used to predict our first inch of snow, and I was wrong.  The storm showed up in December, right on schedule in cycle 2, but it did not produce that first inch of snow in KC. It should have. Now, what will this storm do this time?

The 500 mb flow valid Friday morning, on the first full day of summer:

1

Summer begins at 5:09 AM central time Thursday morning, and around 24 hours later this pattern will be moving across the nation. Look at the circle near KC.  This is a 500 mb low, around 18,000 feet up.  This should produce a lot of rain as it approaches and moves by. In October, Kansas City received almost 3″ of rain as this part of the pattern cycled through. We have not had a day that wet since that October 20-22 storm.

Surface Forecast:

2

This map shows the surface forecast valid at 1 PM Friday.  There is a swirl of rain and thunderstorms forecast to be near KC Friday morning.  There is a second storm spinning this way that is pushing, or kicking this lead storm out, and as a result there are multiple chances of rain in the forecast over these next couple of weeks.  Here is the rainfall forecast for the next 15 days:

3

Look at the high rainfall totals forces over the corn belt.  12 to 15 inches of rain are forecast by this model with KC on the southern edge of the 3″ plus amounts.  This would be a blessing before summer settles in, if it ever does.  But, will we be left frustrated once again. The frustrations have been almost non stop since this October storm.  So, we will not be shocked by the end of the week if we are left frustrated once again.  We had five days in the 70s before that storm hit in October. And, we are now in a heat wave ahead of this storm in June.

Heat Wave Reaches Four Days:

  • June 13:  83°
  • June 14:  96°
  • June 15:  95°
  • June 16:  95°
  • June 17:  95°

Today will be another sizzler, then some changes begin taking place Tuesday as this storm system, discussed above, begins forming.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience and spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Have a great start to the week.

Gary

2018-06-19T22:13:45+00:00 June 18th, 2018|General|82 Comments

82 Comments

  1. NoBeachHere June 18, 2018 at 6:00 am - Reply

    Let’s hope that happens.

    Gary and Jeff, if you guys wanna take a day off from blogging, go ahead. Right now the blogs are, “same but different “ lol.

  2. Three7s June 18, 2018 at 6:49 am - Reply

    When you say things like “it should have, but didn’t”, I think that’s what gets a lot of bloggers here frustrated. You say things like that, but you don’t really explain why something did or didn’t occur. Was it the quasi ridge that prevented the snow, or a slight difference in track? Just a tidbit that you might want to explain these aspects because, while it’s clear the pattern is cycling, we want to know what causes a forecast to hit or miss.

    • Vernon T. Taggert June 18, 2018 at 8:17 am - Reply

      Three7s, I agree, Gary, what say ye?

    • Gary June 18, 2018 at 8:27 am - Reply

      Maybe I should say, “it shouldn’t have, and didn’t”. Seriously. What we have learned about this pattern, and a long time ago, by December, is that it shouldn’t produce, and then when it doesn’t we would be more accurate. The problem is that I “WANT” it to rain and a lot. It is what we weather enthusiasts love to see and experience. But, what we want should not be part of a forecast or prediction. Does this make sense? So, when the storm produces the lower amounts of rain in our area, we should not be surprised. There are chances later this week and over the next two weeks. During the winter we did not even get one storm to produce, NOT ONE. And, during the spring, it is about the same. We are now going to get the summer version of the LRC, and I will be more than happy to begin discussion on the new LRC in the fall. Our area has had one of the more frustrating years, and this is on top of other recent frustrating years of experiencing weather, but it has been entertaining, IMO.

      Gary

      • Three7s June 18, 2018 at 10:22 am - Reply

        I understand that the LRC makes it pretty obvious what will happen, though maybe not back then, but I think most of us would still like to know exactly WHY in meteorological terms, as well.

        • Gary June 18, 2018 at 12:15 pm - Reply

          Meteorologically, it is so much easier to explain why something will happen, and much more difficult to explain how and why something will not happen. We just happen to be in the location that has more of these difficult meteorological explanation versions. Now, in the next two weeks there is anywhere from 2″ minimum to as much as 15″ maximum in our four state region. The LRC explanation is within the paper. We are near a long-term long wave ridge, as I have described over the decades, what Jerome Namais called anchor ridges. Now, if you are on the edge of one of these features, it may be a wet feature during the warm season. So, this will be tested out in these next two weeks.

          Gary

  3. Snow Miser June 18, 2018 at 7:43 am - Reply

    06Z GFS has even more rain for our area over the next couple weeks:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018061806/gfs_apcpn_us_52.png

  4. Ben June 18, 2018 at 7:54 am - Reply

    That’s a lot of rain but the crazy part is, North MO could soak that much up as long as it doesn’t come all at once. It would be huge for the corn crop heading in to pollination in a couple weeks

  5. REAL HUMEDUDE June 18, 2018 at 9:11 am - Reply

    I’ve already got tasseling corn in Vernon Co., MO. We need a rain down here now, the creek is still tricking and ponds mostly full but the topsoil is bone dry. Still some subsoil moisture down several inches but its losing quality daily. Not a mudhole in sight and tiny late beans popping up need a big drink so they can put on their canopy over next few weeks to help shield barren soil from summer sun.
    Those up in Northern MO might be saying uncle by the time its over IF that GFS verifies. Nobody can use 12″ of rain, I don’t care how dry you are that’s a big flood. If they get 6″ up there it will kill the drought and fill up the ponds which I am sure are hurting about now. I hope everyone gets a nice 2-4″ by the end of the week, that would be really nice!

  6. JoeK June 18, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

    Gary,

    The LRC is our road map and it is telling us not to expect the models to be accurate. During the winter months, models would show copious amounts of moisture on the 10 + days out . We know the result all winter long. Spring has delivered the same type of result with the exception of a few systems that have produced. Taking into consideration seasonal differences, beyond a few systems producing, I don’t expect much of a change this summer. I am placing my bets on the LRC continuing to frustrate us. As accurate as the LRC has been thus far, I see no reason to doubt it

    • REAL HUMEDUDE June 18, 2018 at 10:34 am - Reply

      I’ve had 3 different 4″ rain events this LRC. Once in October, then in late February, then in late May. So my interpretation of the 18′ LRC is that this pattern can indeed produce some big rains, but its going be localized and pretty dry in-between them.

  7. Michael Casteel June 18, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

    Our farmers in Nodaway County are going to love that news! Hope the map proves right. Stay cool bloggers!
    Michael

  8. Michael Garner June 18, 2018 at 12:40 pm - Reply

    If the next two weeks to turn wet can we expect the same type of summer pattern to show up around the 5th of August? If so I would almost assume, if we get several inches of rain the next two weeks, that we could up near average for precipitation totals for June-August? That would be a total of 13.57. That’s a lot to ask for? Different pattern but last year in August there was 10.19 in that month alone. Crazy

  9. Kurt June 18, 2018 at 12:40 pm - Reply

    The 12Z shows systems, but all doing their best to avoid the driest areas in NE KS and NW MO, will be interesting to see what happens the next 10 days; but I don’t think the heavier rains will be widespread and those that are the driest hopefully get more rains to help the corn and bean and any pastures and get water in the ponds and reservoirs.

    Most corn is Buchanan County looks to be only 1 to 2 feet tall and really needs a drink.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE June 18, 2018 at 1:19 pm - Reply

      Corn is already 6-7″ in my area, subsoil moisture does wonders

  10. Kurt June 18, 2018 at 1:27 pm - Reply

    Yes, our subsoil is hurting up here with the 16-20 inch deficit going back to Oct 2016 until now.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE June 18, 2018 at 1:58 pm - Reply

      Our topsoil is getting beat, but the fact our streams are still trickling shows there’s moisture below , somewhere. Although it’s getting fainter by the hour!
      Your gonna get a big dose outta this Kurt, the powercast I watched at noon had 3 or 4 different batches hitting you by Thursday starting tonight. I might not get near as much as you up there, I’m hoping to get lucky

  11. f00dl3 June 18, 2018 at 2:40 pm - Reply

    Is all this rain from the circulation left over by the Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm?

  12. KS Jones June 18, 2018 at 5:59 pm - Reply

    This first round of storms has already dumped 3.8″ of rain at Marysville, but that line of storms barely clipped us, and we’ve had only brief sprinkles. Now as I type, actual rain began coming down.

    • KS Jones June 18, 2018 at 7:20 pm - Reply

      I got wet when I ran out to read the rain gauge at 6:20 and we had 1.3″. That came down faster than I would have liked, but we had no wind or hail, and the storm that streamed through west of here caused wind damage from Waterville to Marysville.
      The storm blew over by 6:30, and we got a total of 1.58″.

  13. Mr. Pete June 18, 2018 at 7:09 pm - Reply

    Water is falling in my yard – from a nice sprinkler. 👍

  14. Jackson in Gladstone June 18, 2018 at 7:45 pm - Reply

    I’m confused. If the LRC says that these storms just don’t really ever produce over our area, why is Gary mentioning that the LRC shows a signal for a wet period? Which is it – does the LRC support a wet period, or a dry period??

    • Gary June 18, 2018 at 8:18 pm - Reply

      It is a wet period, but for where you live, that is a question still. But, in our region it is a very wet pattern developing. The pattern continues to find ways to leave some of our region dry. Looking at this developing pattern, it will be very interesting to watch each chance miss us. It only takes two hours of thunderstorms, like what happened this afternoon at Marysville, KS to produce 3 inches of rain. In the next two weeks at least one of these just has to set up over KC, right?

      Gary

      • Jackson in Gladstone June 18, 2018 at 9:14 pm - Reply

        So you think we’re going to see “every chance miss us”?

  15. KS Jones June 18, 2018 at 9:53 pm - Reply

    Local Storm Report Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
    0503 PM TSTM WND DMG WATERVILLE 39.69N 96.75W
    06/18/2018 MARSHALL (County) KS EMERGENCY MNGR
    DELAYED REPORT. GRAIN STORAGE BIN BUCKLED AT LOCAL ELEVATOR IN TOWN AND TIN ROOF ON A SHED NEXT TO IT BLOWN OFF. POWER LINES DOWN IN SPOTS AROUND TOWN.

  16. Mr. Pete June 19, 2018 at 1:18 am - Reply

    What does that mean that every chance will miss us?

  17. Michael Garner June 19, 2018 at 9:48 am - Reply

    I’m guessing no new blog means as Gary said on the radio don’t expect much of any rain this week?

    • Michel Casteel June 19, 2018 at 9:54 am - Reply

      I have gotten over an inch up here in Maryville already with more on the way hoping you guys get some to have a great day!
      Michael

      • Michael Garner June 19, 2018 at 10:02 am - Reply

        You and me both, one thing I’ve learned is complaining won’t ever work for anything in life, so just pull up a chair and wait and see when it comes to weather. Here’s to a white winter with above normal snow. O wait it’s only June, better calm down!

        • Michel Casteel June 19, 2018 at 10:41 am - Reply

          Lol!
          Michael

        • Michel Casteel June 19, 2018 at 10:42 am - Reply

          No kidding! Lol
          Michael

  18. Snow Miser June 19, 2018 at 10:04 am - Reply
    • Richard June 19, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

      Snow
      Thanks for that
      So heat advisory until 7 pm tonight and maybe a situation of training storms over metro with flash flooding?
      What does Gary say

  19. Richard June 19, 2018 at 10:08 am - Reply

    Rockford Illinois flash flooding last night. 5 inches in 3 hrs
    Saw a video of hospital hallways with rivers of water rushing through. Patients were evacuated.
    Now Galveston and Houston ?
    Don’t want that much rain, but we sure could use some

  20. Three7s June 19, 2018 at 10:09 am - Reply

    Kurt should be getting hammered with rain right now….

  21. Kurt June 19, 2018 at 10:20 am - Reply

    Nothing here yet, waiting on the storms to my south and west to move in

  22. Trevor June 19, 2018 at 10:48 am - Reply

    Anyone have any updates, looked like the better chances of rain will be north of I70

    • Gary June 19, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply

      This is obviously close to raining in KC. I have multiple distractions today, and after I get to work I will get a new blog going, so around 3:30 PM or so. The GFS and NAM models both are finally converging on some rain over the KC metro. There is all kinds of potential, with this much moisture available. More later…..

      • Snow Miser June 19, 2018 at 11:22 am - Reply

        Thanks Gary!

      • Jason June 19, 2018 at 11:35 am - Reply

        Hope all is well Gary. Take care of things and don’t worry about the blog

  23. Mr. Pete June 19, 2018 at 11:31 am - Reply

    Last time I saw echoes like that over KC, I literally got zilch in my yard even thought it looked like it should have been pouring. We shall see…

  24. Dan M June 19, 2018 at 11:35 am - Reply

    Look like St. Joseph official reporting station already has about 2/3″ of rain. Good spot to be in today.

  25. REAL HUMEDUDE June 19, 2018 at 11:37 am - Reply

    NAM has sucked past several weeks, seeing big disturbances that never produced a shower and missing big MCS altogether, the NAM is currently trash

    • LYITC41 June 19, 2018 at 12:03 pm - Reply

      It does suck most of the time.

  26. Richard June 19, 2018 at 11:49 am - Reply

    Parts of TX now over 9 inches in 12 hrs.
    Toad stranglin rains comma head on radar

  27. Michael Garner June 19, 2018 at 11:58 am - Reply

    It’s pouring here in Leavenworth, I’m using my imagination and calling this a blizzard, as Rudolph would say, “the storm of the century”

  28. Kurt June 19, 2018 at 11:58 am - Reply

    That was disappointing, one cell went north and the other cell went south. At least it’s cooler but could use more than the .15 I got, hopefully much more in the coming days.

  29. Jayhawkfinalfour June 19, 2018 at 12:09 pm - Reply

    It’s been pouring buckets in Lansing with some wicked lightning strikes. Loudest thunder I’ve heard in awhile.

  30. Jordan June 19, 2018 at 12:22 pm - Reply

    If this misses northern Wyandotte again, I’m finding a random baby and screaming in its face. My corn looks horrible right now.

    • LYITC41 June 19, 2018 at 12:38 pm - Reply

      Yeah, that’ll perk the corn right up!

      • Jordan June 19, 2018 at 12:38 pm - Reply

        I didn’t say it would perk the corn up, but it’ll certainly make me feel better.

        • LYITC41 June 19, 2018 at 12:42 pm - Reply

          If you’re serious you’re an idiot, and you need to seek some help.

          • Brittany June 19, 2018 at 12:48 pm - Reply

            Don’t be a jerk, dude.

          • Jordan June 19, 2018 at 2:02 pm - Reply

            It’s called hyperbole, genius.

            • LYITC41 June 19, 2018 at 2:06 pm - Reply

              Still a strange thing to say, hyperbolic or not. You sound like a jerk.

              • Jordan June 19, 2018 at 2:09 pm

                I love how your initial defense mechanism is to resort to name-calling, and then double-down on it when you get made to look foolish. If you actually think I would just walk up to some random mom with her baby and scream in the kid’s face because it didn’t rain, well, I don’t think I can accurately describe you without getting banned from posting on the blog.

              • TDogg June 19, 2018 at 2:31 pm

                This is the world we live in now. People overreacting to every little thing that comes out of someone’s mouth without using the least bit of common sense.
                How in the world have you survived so far LYITC41. The only one on this blog that is an idiot and sounds like a jerk is you. Go back under the rock you crawled out from today and stay there.

  31. Heat Miser June 19, 2018 at 12:40 pm - Reply

    Raining cats and dogs in Lawrence

  32. Bill in Lawrence June 19, 2018 at 12:57 pm - Reply

    Quick check in from Washington Creek Valley (between Clinton Dam and Lone Star Lake)

    5 min downpour here and now just sprinkles…am on the very SW edge of the rain shield….

    Have a great afternoon everyone..

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Baseball Mike June 19, 2018 at 1:08 pm - Reply

      Hi Bill

      Hope you get some heavier downpours-1.31 inches out of this which puts me close to 15.50 inches for the year as I record for Colorado State-Here and Forbes Field have recorded much more than Billard Airport-will be interesting to see how the rain plays out-WIBW now has heavy thunderstorms off and on through next Tuesday!
      Take care,
      Michael/Berryton/Topeka

      • Bill in Lawrence June 19, 2018 at 2:20 pm - Reply

        Baseball Mike:

        Great to hear from you!!

        That is great…so glad you got that much from this line of storms!!

        It really split around this area….in town may have done a bit better but if so not by much. It only rained for 10 min here. I see on radar (and looking to my west) there is stil a band just south of Topeka that’s has stayed together but it split between that and KC.

        Oh well…that is weather in Kansas LOL!!!!

        Have a great day!!

        Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  33. KS Jones June 19, 2018 at 12:59 pm - Reply

    Got another 0.72″ of rain this morning (from 9 to 10 AM), which when added to the rainfall we got yesterday afternoon is 2.3″ and 4.23″ so far this month. We need an additional 1.27″ before the end of the month to bring us up to our June average, and if WeatherUnderground’s forecast is correct, we should get an additional 2.08″ between now and June 25th.

  34. 2Doghouse June 19, 2018 at 1:01 pm - Reply

    We just went from nothing. To major wind in and thunder in west Olathe.

  35. Adam June 19, 2018 at 1:10 pm - Reply

    Raining fairly heavily downtown right now. The temperature change was refreshing. Beautiful out there. I’m tempted to stand in it but I don’t think my office would appreciate me coming back in sopping wet.

  36. f00dl3 June 19, 2018 at 1:22 pm - Reply

    Pretty good winds I’d say 55-65 MPH here in JoCo. Shocked there’s no warning.

  37. Mr. Pete June 19, 2018 at 1:33 pm - Reply

    The winds are really bad over here. Worst I’ve seen in a while.

  38. jsquibble June 19, 2018 at 1:35 pm - Reply

    i wonder if we will get more storms tonight since none of the models this morning picked up on the band of storms moving through now

  39. REAL HUMEDUDE June 19, 2018 at 1:37 pm - Reply

    This rain doesn’t have a chance in hell of making it to Hume. I Need a rain bad right now!

  40. Ryan June 19, 2018 at 1:52 pm - Reply

    It dropped from 20 degrees (88F-68F) in a matter of minutes

    • Ryan June 19, 2018 at 1:52 pm - Reply

      ignore the from

  41. Rickmckc June 19, 2018 at 2:00 pm - Reply

    .36″ near I-29 & 64th. Looking at other Weather Underground PWS near me, it ranges from a low of .2 a mile to my north (64th street) and 2.67 two miles to my south (in Riverside).

  42. Nick June 19, 2018 at 2:13 pm - Reply

    North St. Joe got into a good cell earlier with heavy rain and lightning and then we had a decent period of “anvil rain” with occasional thunder afterwards. a nice cool rainy day. 🙂

  43. Mr. Pete June 19, 2018 at 2:38 pm - Reply

    I measured one inch from this round here in Prairie Village

  44. Snow Miser June 19, 2018 at 2:42 pm - Reply

    I missed the whole thing. I was in a meeting in a room with no windows in the middle of a building and didn’t even hear any thunder. A few drops had just started falling before I got there, and by the time I got out it was over.

  45. Hockeynut69 June 19, 2018 at 2:59 pm - Reply

    About .8″ just North of Liberty. Good start to the week of rain.

  46. Blue Flash June 19, 2018 at 4:22 pm - Reply

    0.6″ in West Central Independence.

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