Good morning bloggers,
The weather pattern is cycling as described by the LRC. We started this blog in 2002, and we began sharing my hypothesis with the bloggers, some of whom have been reading the blog from the start. If you remember, I called it “the theory”, or my theory. The early bloggers saw that there was something special about it and they suggested calling it the GRC, and around a week later a blogger suggested calling it the LRC. I didn’t really care what it was called then, and I said, “sure, we will call it the LRC”. It never really mattered to me what it was called, but it obviously stuck, and we now know it as the LRC. After 18 months, of work, 30 years of research, or really 70 years of research when adding in Jerome Namais from the 1940s to the 1970s, a paper was published called the Cycling Patterns of the Northern Hemisphere: 70 years of research and a new hypothesis. The new hypothesis is the LRC, or as it is called in the paper, the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.
This years pattern:
This years LRC begin during the end of the first week of October. That first cycle was as fascinating as every cycle has been so far, and we are now in the sixth LRC cycle. This pattern will continue through September before a new and unique pattern sets up again in late September into that first week of October. If you go back 47-48 day cycle times 5 ago, you come out to this comparison. Through the years we have shared 100s of examples like this one:
Here we are in the almost summer version of the “same pattern, but different” as Gary England called it in 2009 when the LRC puzzle came into focus for him. It is the same pattern, but it will differ depending on many different factors. The biggest factor is a seasonal difference in strength of the river of air flowing above us within the troposphere. There is tremendous organization to the chaos, and the LRC showcases this organization.
The LRC Computer Model:
I just checked our model for around 10 different zip codes around the United States, and to me it is quite obvious that the 47-48 day cycle is evident in this model output above. The orange line shows the LRC Projection. The green line shows the actual high temperatures. The blue line shows climatology, or the average high temperature. The pattern is quite obviously cycling regularly, and this computer model is verifying quite well. This is a forecast made from March, or a 90 day forecast.
There is a storm system, now being modeled by the GFS and European models, showing up in the middle of the nation next week. This storm is directly related to the late October storm system that formed into a Great Lakes upper low in October. This storm went through a major transition over the western plains into the Missouri River Valley in October, and it will likely go through a similar transition, but the June version this time. This developing mid-week pattern would normally be quite wet at this time of the year. And, look at this forecast from the GFS, with the European Model similar:
This rainfall forecast over the next ten days shows 2 to 6 inch amounts. Now, if you live near KC we have been through this since October. The pattern has found some way to only produce spotty higher amounts. We will just have to see if it produces this time. Have a great day. Let’s see how the models come in today. And, go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation. Have a great weekend.