The Second Half Of June Will Be Interesting

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Good morning bloggers,

“Interesting” is something we have had almost non stop with this pattern. “Frustrating” is what we have experienced if you live near KC.  So, Interesting and Frustrating has been the theme since this pattern started in October.  There have been many times, from October through today, where we have had models shown some exciting set ups producing lots of rain, potential snow, and exciting weather set ups for us weather enthusiasts.  Next week is yet another one of those times that shows a set up featuring a stalling front that may produce the rain we have been waiting for, or it may very well end up leaving us in the dust again?   Take  a look at the next few days, and how it is lining up:

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The front will likely stall and gradually weaken between Monday and Wednesday.  It is certainly interesting, and the chance that it will be frustrating is high. As we have thought many, many times however, is that maybe this one will be different. And, maybe it will?

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny, hot, and humid. South winds 10-20 mph. High: 95°
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny, hot, and humid. South winds 5-15 mph.  High: 95°
  • Sunday:  Mostly sunny, hot, and humid. South winds 5-15 mph.  High: 95°
  • Monday:  Mostly sunny, hot and humid. A few afternoon clouds building up, but the chance of rain is less than 10%.  High:  94°
  • Tuesday:  Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.  The chance of rain increases to 50%.  High:  85°

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06z (1 AM) GFS Rainfall Forecast:

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We will learn more about this pattern over the weekend.  Have a great day. Go to the Weather2020.com and join in the conversation or just share in this weather experience as we all learn together!

Gary

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Snow MiserJoeREAL HUMEDUDERichardOlatheWildcat Recent comment authors
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Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Wunderground forecast for my zip code says 2.15 inches through next Sunday. *crosses fingers*

Joe
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Joe

I’m going with the LRC….hot and dry for KC

OlatheWildcat
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OlatheWildcat

The drought map should be no surprise to anyone. Look at a satellite image of the United states and the topography/vegetation and dry zones match up with the drought monitor. This is nothing new. comment image

Richard
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Richard

Exactly. Thanks for that map
We rarely hear about drought east of the Mississippi
It is what it is

Tdogg
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Tdogg

Oh baby a snowstorm? Terry and Robert Racy are ready for some white stuff!

f00dl3
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f00dl3
Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

We’re about as likely to have a big snowfall as a big rainfall.

Nate
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Nate

That will gradually work itself down to zero

Michael Garner
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Michael Garner

That map looks like the last 3 winters.

Craig
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Craig
Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Hopefully this link will work, but here is the EURO rainfall total through Sunday June 24th. The rain comes in on Tuesday with several chances of scattered showers/storms throughout the week and into next weekend. St Joe area looks to be good with ~3 inches, and just further to the east it could be even much higher. Kansas City also looking good with a couple of inches. Better yet is the area out near Salina and Manhattan, and to the south where they have been in a world of hurt. Fingers crosses you guys! Remember, this is 240 hours out… Read more »

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I mean if you took the LRC at face value it makes sense – we are in the 3rd warm spike and we should then have 1 month below normal temps after this warm spike ends. LRC suggest we would have spring-like temps as we go into Summer.

Richard
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Richard

But Gary said the cold pushes don’t get this far south, they come to a screeching halt one state north of us.
The cold fronts are there just like before but lose their punch.
I am curious too what makes them stop.

C.C
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C.C

Okay sooooo it goes with the lrc like Gary says as well. But they just have not made it this far south, hopefully mondays front ends that streak

TDogg
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TDogg

Lets hope that is the case.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

I want to know what the Euro is saying now? Yesterday the Euro said we had the wet solution but GFS wasn’t on board, now the GFS is on board but not sure what Euro is thinking? I would think if every major model is showcasing a stalled front, we should expect it to verify, right? We have a system working up from Gulf, interacting with a stalled front in a moist humid environment, how does that not produce widespread rains? Have I asked too many questions? Have I lost my mind? Happy Fathers day weekend all you dads out… Read more »

LYITC41
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LYITC41

I’ve learned to not put a lot of stock into the models or to just ignore them altogether. They will make you crazy if you let them. There’s just too much that goes into the science of meteorology, too many variables, expected and unexpected, for the models to be consistently accurate. I kinda believe that they’re not going to get any better than they are currently. That may be naïve but for something that so consistently underperforms, why haven’t they been able to fix or improve them?

Troy Newman
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Troy Newman

The Euro has 2-5″ of rain over most of KS with 1-2 over N MO. There is not much over E OK and AR into extreme Southern MO. The Euro has had a similar solution for a couple days now and was the first to show the abundant moisture. I think the GFS is flawed in the summer. It has way to high of temperatures and constantly shows Tropical Storms in the Gulf. None of the models are that great but that is one that I have a hard time with this time of year. You can’t ask too many… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Troy – soak that up brother, we don’t get many days to fish with 3 generations on the boat. Enjoy every second

Anonymous
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Anonymous

The last time we had this setup, we got squat out of it for rain

Richard
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Richard

Gary
Your timeline temps don’t match with what you said on Sports radio tgis morning.
You gave higher temps on the radio. I know one or two degrees don’t matter though, right ?

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

dude, you have too much time on your hands

Richard
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Richard

Dude
It seems you do too just to make comments like that.
Add something or ask something dude.
Or just move on

LYITC41
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LYITC41

A pretty fair chunk of the lower 48 appears to be in some varying stage of drought-almost half the country from the looks of that map. That’s pretty sad. Most people like/love summer, this is another reason I don’t.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Most of that is abnormally dry (D 0), and only 23.27% of the nation is in an actual drought category (D 1-4)
comment image
Hopefully, the latest updated forecast from WeatherUnderground will come true. They are predicting this area (25 miles north of Manhattan) will get 2.87″ of rain from Monday (6/18) to Saturday (6/24).

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

July or June?