Where Is The Rain?

/Where Is The Rain?

Where Is The Rain?

Good morning bloggers,

When this weather pattern set up last October it didn’t seem that it was going to be this bad.  Looking back, the signs were there by the end of November.  But, to predict how the drought set up and expanded in a strange way from the southwestern United States to a narrowing point over northern Missouri would prove to be a difficult concept to explain and forecast. The patterns of precipitation have left us with frustration after frustration if you live in our area, in the heart of the nation, near KC.  Oh, some of us got over an inch of rain two nights ago, but in most late May into June thunderstorm set ups like we had the other night, it would have been all of us that had the 1″ of rain, while others have 4 or 5 inches of rain, not most of us ending up with under a half inch again.  And, now, even Amarillo Texas had a good half inch to inch of rain yesterday, but that is also a drop in their drought bucket. They need more. Kansas City needs much more as you can see here in this rainfall total as of this morning:

1

Screen Shot 2018-06-13 at 7.22.58 AM

There are a couple of complexes of thunderstorms that are drifting east and southeast. These will not make it to KC, but we will once again see some of the clouds from these weak systems.  The HRRR comes close to bringing one of these complexes all the way across Kansas, and of course then dissipates it just as it gets to near Missouri:

hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_7

I hope everyone has a great day. Get the sprinklers working. Temperatures will be heating up Thursday through the weekend.  It has been almost five years since KCI Airport, Kansas City’s official reporting station, was 100°. That happened on September 8, 2013 when it actually reached exactly 100°.  As it gets drier and drier, the chance of breaking the 100 degree level is going to be increasing. For now, the humidity may still be too high.

Have a great day!  And, thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

2018-06-15T06:51:46+00:00 June 13th, 2018|General|39 Comments

39 Comments

  1. Snow Miser June 13, 2018 at 7:43 am - Reply

    Not to nit-pick, but I’m gonna nit-pick. The symbol for Kansas City International airport is actually MCI, not KCI. 😉

    • Gary June 13, 2018 at 7:47 am - Reply

      It is called KCI Airport though. So, yes, it is MCI, but it is KCI Airport if you were in a conversation with anyone. It is Kansas City International Airport. Now, the International part will hopefully expand with the new airport in the coming years.

      • Richard June 13, 2018 at 8:50 am - Reply

        Is now International.
        Iceland Air non-stop from KCI to Iceland. The first Int. airline here as of a few weeks ago.

        • Blue Flash June 13, 2018 at 10:55 am - Reply

          Maybe MLK airport, or so I hear.

          • Richard June 13, 2018 at 11:35 am - Reply

            MLK ? Bad idea. Not that he does not deserve something named after him.
            Needs to pertain to KC.
            Who would hear MLK International airport and think “oh yeah ! Thats Kansas City!”

            • Blue Flash June 13, 2018 at 1:24 pm - Reply

              I agree.

    • ClassyCat June 13, 2018 at 4:01 pm - Reply

      Not to nit-pick, but I’m going to nit-pick. LOL

  2. Baseball Mike June 13, 2018 at 8:42 am - Reply

    Good morning Gary

    What actually is causing these abnormal temps from the cold April to the past 7 weeks of above temps? We can use the
    general term of the LRC or say well it is the pattern. But did you see these abnormally high temps for May and June? Is it the dryness or combination of other factors on the east coast, west coast, or Gulf of Mexico as far as pressures being in the wrong place? It seems as though we had no spring at all and the actual drought period from 2011-2014 did have the heat domes and days of 100s. I have read about that drought that Bill in Lawrence brought up in the 1800s in and around here and Lawrence and it was very dry. I still say the 1930s was just fascinating with the weather extremes. I don’t think that you h or any other met had really discussed the root cause of why these temps can’t seem to be displaced by let’s say a northwest flow etc.

    Michael/Berryton/Topeka

    • Richard June 13, 2018 at 8:53 am - Reply

      He didn’t see it. Didn’t predict it either.
      Predicted dry, but not May and June being much above normal.

    • Gary June 13, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

      Mike,

      As I have been saying, it is a difficult pattern to describe. The drought that extends from the southwest to a point over northern Missouri is real. This has since become a symptom of what you are asking, again hard to explain. It was in the 60s and 70s again this week, just north of KC. In May, one of the weeks we were sizzling, it was much, much colder one half a state away. It was in the 40s and 50s while KC was near 90. The front stalled just north of us, and there was a huge and unbreakable cap that prevented thunderstorms from forming. The cooler air was there, but just not here. And, now we are going to get the summer versions of these fronts. So, it is frustrating. The LRC does describe it well, but for my discussions with you it is a tough one to explain how we always find a way to miss every snow opportunity, every rain opportunity. It has been so consistent.

      I hope this makes sense a bit. This pattern is unique. It is not 2012. It is not the 1930s. It is 2018. There are signs of El Niño for next winter. But, will the pattern set up favorably for us to be more excited about the weather pattern? We won’t know that until October and November. For now, we are left with this pattern.

      • Troy Newman June 13, 2018 at 10:37 am - Reply

        Is the drought and heat becoming more centered around KC now? The High Plains have been getting some rain and seem the most likely to benefit from Monsoon moisture. I have a friend way out by Elkhart who is a farmer and they have gotten several really good rains and the crops are up and looking good (not the wheat). It looks like the worst rainfall deficits are from KC to extreme Western IL and that is where the next ridge looks like it will develop.

  3. Richard June 13, 2018 at 8:58 am - Reply

    San Juan National forest in CO is closed ! No hiking, no camping, no anything.
    To keep people safe, but mainly to prevent human causing fires, carelessness.
    Durango fire was already going, and one more erupted yesterday.
    Park will be closed until they get sufficient moisture. When will that happen ?

  4. LYITC41 June 13, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

    This isn’t very scientific nor is it anything new but the weather in these parts is going to go back and forth between wet periods and dry periods, as it has done for millennia, even the worst droughts end as do the flooding times. Were in a temperate part of the world so were going to get all of what that throws at us. It’s fascinating to live in a place where you can have arctic conditions and just 6 mos. later have tropical or desert conditions. The wx here sucks sometimes, but it’s certainly not boring.

    • Gary June 13, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

      Good point: It has been anything but boring!

  5. Richard June 13, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

    Amazing how April was so much below average.
    Then boom on May 1 here comes the heat.
    In the last 47 days we’ve had 1 day with temperatures below average, and that was only by 1 degree.

  6. Michael Garner June 13, 2018 at 9:30 am - Reply

    KCI/MCI, I know we all don’t live there but here are the stats.
    Oct ‘17; Temp. +1.3/Precipitation 154% of normal
    Nov ‘17; Temp. +1.2/Precipitation 13% of normal
    Dec ‘17; Temp. +0.6/Precipitation 12% of normal
    Jan ‘18; Temp. -0.4Precipitation 106% of normal
    Feb ‘18; Temp. -1.3/Precipitation 90% of normal
    Mar ‘18; Temp. +-0.6/Precipitation 70% of normal
    Apr ‘18; Temp. -7.5/Precipitation 28% of normal
    May ‘18; Temp. +8.9/Precipitation 105% of normal.

    What does this mean for the summer? I have no clue. Haven’t had a heat wave in forever so my uneducated guess based upon the same pattern with different results. Several almost heat waves with 4 heat waves with all 4 lasting at least 5 days. Heat wave 95 degrees or higher. KCI/MCI records 4 days above 100, with highest temp being 103.

    Here’s to hoping for the same pattern as April, obviously no artic fronts or snow, but some strong cold fronts. But I’m going to assume that April is like a sore thumb. As all other months that were below normal were not that far below normal, even the above normal months were not that above normal till May.
    The further into summer we get the harder it will be to be that far above normal as our highs and lows climb thru July.

    • Michael Garner June 13, 2018 at 9:45 am - Reply

      Heat wave = 95 or higher for at least 3 days in a row. Near heat wave = 95 or higher for back to back days but the third day drops with a “major cold front” and we only hit 92.
      Using KCI/MCI as the record keeper as I can’t go to everyone’s back yard to take temps daily.

    • Richard June 13, 2018 at 9:48 am - Reply

      Michael
      Thanks for those stats.
      And I hope tou are wrong about the heat waves, but I guess we are due.
      Seeing that Spring only lasts for another week, and no summer forecast from wx2020, your prediction seems pretty plausible.

  7. NoBeachHere June 13, 2018 at 10:13 am - Reply

    Following the LRC, we pretty much knew with the set ups that chances of cold to really cold were there. Somewhat questionable as we have seen a cold December then mild January till spring16’-17’, 11’-12’. Moisture, however was never really showing up. I agreed with Jeff P. , thinking the setup was there for us to turn wet. Well Mr Quasi P Ridge showed his ugly form and has messed that up.
    I also was tracking the cold up in Hudson Bay and opposite the globe in Russia. It was below freezing till 3 weeks ago. People have asked and Gary has mentioned the cold fronts lost there punch. I have a hard time understanding how they lost their “punch” when it was still cold up there. I can understand seasonal differences, I get the Earth is rotating into the spring and summer seasons, so yes, I can see were it will eventually warm up there and across the globe in Russia. But the strength of those winter into spring cold fronts was very dominant, then poof, gone and the heat was on. So again, how and why did those cold fronts loose there punch?

    Was, now is, the tropics a force in keeping that cold air from pushing south?

    Does the quasi permanent ridge have a play in that?

    Is that quasi permanent ridge like a standing wave in the atmosphere directly related to the flow aloft?

    And lastly, what cause that stupid quasi thing to form in the first place?

    Take your time, no pressure for answers lol

    Oh, humor us with your best explanation as to why it’s so hard to describe.

  8. Snow Miser June 13, 2018 at 10:15 am - Reply

    Good write-up about Bud and potential tropical development in the Gulf on wunderground:
    https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Big-Moisture-Heading-Southwest-US-Thanks-Bud-and-Caribbean-Surge

  9. Michael Garner June 13, 2018 at 10:30 am - Reply

    Wow, just walked outside, and compared to what it was like at 6am, the breeze and dew point of 63 feeels amazing! How many more weeks till we can start looking for one of those first Autumn cold fronts? 12-14 weeks???? Summer my number 4 favorite season, at least it made it in the top 5, haha.

    • LYITC41 June 13, 2018 at 10:39 am - Reply

      I’m with you, don’t like this time of year at all. I don’t mind a nice warm day but it seems like we’re always getting the extremes of both heat and cold with very little spring and fall anymore. Just straight from one extreme to the next.

      • Richard June 13, 2018 at 11:46 am - Reply

        Like I said on here the other day. I like 4 seasons, but somewhere along the way Mother Nature decided KC only needs 2..winter and summer !
        But she really kicked us in the gut by deciding we could have frigid winters without snow !

  10. KS Jones June 13, 2018 at 12:52 pm - Reply

    Where’s the rain? Well, most of it fell out west of Hays, with estimates of 4″. Sadly, it is fizzling out as it comes east.
    https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=uex&product=NTP&loop=no

    • LYITC41 June 13, 2018 at 1:15 pm - Reply

      Of course it is, glad they got it out there.

  11. f00dl3 June 13, 2018 at 1:30 pm - Reply

    GUYS, GUYS – don’t panic. Per the GFS, we will have significant rains – 8″ plus in spots. Next week.

    Wait…. it’s only 10 days away!

  12. Snow Miser June 13, 2018 at 2:02 pm - Reply

    Long as I remember, the rain ain’t falling down
    Clouds of dusty blowing confusion on the ground
    Good men through the ages, trying to find the rain
    And I wonder, still I wonder, where is the rain?

    • Snow Miser June 13, 2018 at 2:04 pm - Reply

      Actually I ended two lines with rain in a row, should be more like this ….

      Long as I remember, the rain ain’t falling down
      Clouds of dusty blowing confusion on the ground
      Good men through the ages, trying to soak in vain
      And I wonder, still I wonder, where is the rain?

  13. WeathermanKumke June 13, 2018 at 2:17 pm - Reply

    Atleast it means more of you can come out to TopGolf and have some food and fun

  14. Larry June 13, 2018 at 3:21 pm - Reply

    Lawrence already hit 100 degrees Sunday and Monday. I received 1.91″ in Monday night’s storms in NW Lawrence (officially 0.62″ at the airport). My fellow CoCoRaHS observers west and south of the airport were generally from 1.75″ to 2.50″. However, as of this morning, Lawrence is officially 9.98″ below normal dating back to Oct. 1, 2017.

    The Climate Prediction Center for yesterday showed “heavy rain” for most of Kansas and western Missouri for June 19th. However, the 7-day precipitation graphic for the same period showed less than 0.50″. The text from the CPC is forecasting the heavy rain on the hope of Hurricane Bud moves inland. Today’s forecast moves the “heavy rain” band to SW Kansas.

    Do you think Hurricane Bud will have any affect on our weather?

    Thanks, Larry

    • Gary June 13, 2018 at 4:06 pm - Reply

      Tropical systems over the Pacific have very little impact on our weather. The flow aloft is too weak, and we may see some clouds from a system like Bud, but that would be it.

      Gary

  15. f00dl3 June 13, 2018 at 5:17 pm - Reply

    Gary – not to discredit your feeling but our flow is so weak this year I think we have a rather high chance of Bud impacting our weather. That being said, the flow is so weak that GFS has the system tracking up to the Canadian border almost!

    • Gary June 13, 2018 at 6:14 pm - Reply

      Systems from the Pacific can have an impact over the southwestern states with the monsoon in June through August, but then as they move out over the Rocky Mountains only moisture remains. The system you are suggesting is Bud, over the northern plains, is a storm that would be there with or without Buds moisture.

      For KC, these just do not have much impact on our area unless they come from the Gulf of Mexico. The Pacific systems may have more of an impact if it is September or October, and they get caught in a stronger storm and picked up. I would like you to show me an example of one from the Pacific that has happened in June or July that impacted KC. I doubt there have been any with anything more than a band of clouds and showers.

      Gary

  16. Tim June 13, 2018 at 6:08 pm - Reply

    On June 11 Gary said:
    Moisture from Pacific Hurricanes only have a chance of impacting our area when it gets to September. The flow aloft is not strong enough to bring anything more than a few clouds this far. Our impacts come from tropical systems that can come into the Texas coast, and these are very rare for us.

    –Not being a troll, but of course Gary would say it would have little impact on our weather– because it in no way fits the LRC. Lets be serious now — what is “rare”? 44 times Missouri has been hit by a named storm or remnants. While Late summer is more typical for either Basin, they have hit in June before from the atlantic:

    http://climate.missouri.edu/news/arc/aug2012b.php

    “On average, Missouri is affected by remnants of tropical storms or hurricanes every 2-3 years, whereas the chances a tropical storm will maintain its identity while moving into Missouri is about 1 in 20 years. A full-fledged hurricane has never been witnessed in Missouri.”

    I’m in agreement that any moisture that comes into that SW region has a better chance then normal to make it here. Especially with NHC forecast discussions appears it will make it over the Mexican terrain:

    “Bud’s remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and
    northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest
    over the weekend, resulting in significant rainfall and possible
    flash flooding across those areas.”

    We can only hope!!

    • Snow Miser June 13, 2018 at 6:17 pm - Reply

      Gary said PACIFIC storms. Most of the ones you listed are probably GULF storms.

      • Tim June 13, 2018 at 6:37 pm - Reply

        I know he said Pacific. Thats my point. 44 Atlantic storm remnants have ever effected missouri– and was deemed “rare”. Pacific is so much less that I cant find adequate data other than a couple storms in August and September. There are probably more that simply enhanced the moisture in the area like Monsoonish. These normally dont get over the mexican terrain– but GFS and NHC says otherwise– so we can only hope.

    • Gary June 13, 2018 at 6:26 pm - Reply

      Good article!

      Gary

  17. Richard June 13, 2018 at 6:43 pm - Reply

    Antartica’s ice sheet is melting 3 times faster than before

    https://apnews.com/547d9ca2c5524b558356d5b2a75449cc

  18. Mr. Pete June 13, 2018 at 9:19 pm - Reply

    Got the sprinklers rolling….

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