Good morning bloggers,

When this weather pattern set up last October it didn’t seem that it was going to be this bad.  Looking back, the signs were there by the end of November.  But, to predict how the drought set up and expanded in a strange way from the southwestern United States to a narrowing point over northern Missouri would prove to be a difficult concept to explain and forecast. The patterns of precipitation have left us with frustration after frustration if you live in our area, in the heart of the nation, near KC.  Oh, some of us got over an inch of rain two nights ago, but in most late May into June thunderstorm set ups like we had the other night, it would have been all of us that had the 1″ of rain, while others have 4 or 5 inches of rain, not most of us ending up with under a half inch again.  And, now, even Amarillo Texas had a good half inch to inch of rain yesterday, but that is also a drop in their drought bucket. They need more. Kansas City needs much more as you can see here in this rainfall total as of this morning:

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Screen Shot 2018-06-13 at 7.22.58 AM

There are a couple of complexes of thunderstorms that are drifting east and southeast. These will not make it to KC, but we will once again see some of the clouds from these weak systems.  The HRRR comes close to bringing one of these complexes all the way across Kansas, and of course then dissipates it just as it gets to near Missouri:

hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_7

I hope everyone has a great day. Get the sprinklers working. Temperatures will be heating up Thursday through the weekend.  It has been almost five years since KCI Airport, Kansas City’s official reporting station, was 100°. That happened on September 8, 2013 when it actually reached exactly 100°.  As it gets drier and drier, the chance of breaking the 100 degree level is going to be increasing. For now, the humidity may still be too high.

Have a great day!  And, thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

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Mr. PeteRichardTimGarySnow Miser Recent comment authors
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Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Got the sprinklers rolling….

Richard
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Richard

Antartica’s ice sheet is melting 3 times faster than before

https://apnews.com/547d9ca2c5524b558356d5b2a75449cc

Tim
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Tim

On June 11 Gary said: Moisture from Pacific Hurricanes only have a chance of impacting our area when it gets to September. The flow aloft is not strong enough to bring anything more than a few clouds this far. Our impacts come from tropical systems that can come into the Texas coast, and these are very rare for us. –Not being a troll, but of course Gary would say it would have little impact on our weather– because it in no way fits the LRC. Lets be serious now — what is “rare”? 44 times Missouri has been hit by… Read more »

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Gary said PACIFIC storms. Most of the ones you listed are probably GULF storms.

Tim
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Tim

I know he said Pacific. Thats my point. 44 Atlantic storm remnants have ever effected missouri– and was deemed “rare”. Pacific is so much less that I cant find adequate data other than a couple storms in August and September. There are probably more that simply enhanced the moisture in the area like Monsoonish. These normally dont get over the mexican terrain– but GFS and NHC says otherwise– so we can only hope.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Gary – not to discredit your feeling but our flow is so weak this year I think we have a rather high chance of Bud impacting our weather. That being said, the flow is so weak that GFS has the system tracking up to the Canadian border almost!

Larry
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Larry

Lawrence already hit 100 degrees Sunday and Monday. I received 1.91″ in Monday night’s storms in NW Lawrence (officially 0.62″ at the airport). My fellow CoCoRaHS observers west and south of the airport were generally from 1.75″ to 2.50″. However, as of this morning, Lawrence is officially 9.98″ below normal dating back to Oct. 1, 2017. The Climate Prediction Center for yesterday showed “heavy rain” for most of Kansas and western Missouri for June 19th. However, the 7-day precipitation graphic for the same period showed less than 0.50″. The text from the CPC is forecasting the heavy rain on the… Read more »

WeathermanKumke
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WeathermanKumke

Atleast it means more of you can come out to TopGolf and have some food and fun

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Long as I remember, the rain ain’t falling down
Clouds of dusty blowing confusion on the ground
Good men through the ages, trying to find the rain
And I wonder, still I wonder, where is the rain?

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Actually I ended two lines with rain in a row, should be more like this ….

Long as I remember, the rain ain’t falling down
Clouds of dusty blowing confusion on the ground
Good men through the ages, trying to soak in vain
And I wonder, still I wonder, where is the rain?

f00dl3
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f00dl3

GUYS, GUYS – don’t panic. Per the GFS, we will have significant rains – 8″ plus in spots. Next week.

Wait…. it’s only 10 days away!

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Where’s the rain? Well, most of it fell out west of Hays, with estimates of 4″. Sadly, it is fizzling out as it comes east.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=uex&product=NTP&loop=no

LYITC41
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LYITC41

Of course it is, glad they got it out there.

Michael Garner
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Michael Garner

Wow, just walked outside, and compared to what it was like at 6am, the breeze and dew point of 63 feeels amazing! How many more weeks till we can start looking for one of those first Autumn cold fronts? 12-14 weeks???? Summer my number 4 favorite season, at least it made it in the top 5, haha.

LYITC41
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LYITC41

I’m with you, don’t like this time of year at all. I don’t mind a nice warm day but it seems like we’re always getting the extremes of both heat and cold with very little spring and fall anymore. Just straight from one extreme to the next.

Richard
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Richard

Like I said on here the other day. I like 4 seasons, but somewhere along the way Mother Nature decided KC only needs 2..winter and summer !
But she really kicked us in the gut by deciding we could have frigid winters without snow !

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Good write-up about Bud and potential tropical development in the Gulf on wunderground:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Big-Moisture-Heading-Southwest-US-Thanks-Bud-and-Caribbean-Surge

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

Following the LRC, we pretty much knew with the set ups that chances of cold to really cold were there. Somewhat questionable as we have seen a cold December then mild January till spring16’-17’, 11’-12’. Moisture, however was never really showing up. I agreed with Jeff P. , thinking the setup was there for us to turn wet. Well Mr Quasi P Ridge showed his ugly form and has messed that up. I also was tracking the cold up in Hudson Bay and opposite the globe in Russia. It was below freezing till 3 weeks ago. People have asked and… Read more »

Michael Garner
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Michael Garner

KCI/MCI, I know we all don’t live there but here are the stats. Oct ‘17; Temp. +1.3/Precipitation 154% of normal Nov ‘17; Temp. +1.2/Precipitation 13% of normal Dec ‘17; Temp. +0.6/Precipitation 12% of normal Jan ‘18; Temp. -0.4Precipitation 106% of normal Feb ‘18; Temp. -1.3/Precipitation 90% of normal Mar ‘18; Temp. +-0.6/Precipitation 70% of normal Apr ‘18; Temp. -7.5/Precipitation 28% of normal May ‘18; Temp. +8.9/Precipitation 105% of normal. What does this mean for the summer? I have no clue. Haven’t had a heat wave in forever so my uneducated guess based upon the same pattern with different results. Several… Read more »

Michael Garner
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Michael Garner

Heat wave = 95 or higher for at least 3 days in a row. Near heat wave = 95 or higher for back to back days but the third day drops with a “major cold front” and we only hit 92.
Using KCI/MCI as the record keeper as I can’t go to everyone’s back yard to take temps daily.

Richard
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Richard

Michael
Thanks for those stats.
And I hope tou are wrong about the heat waves, but I guess we are due.
Seeing that Spring only lasts for another week, and no summer forecast from wx2020, your prediction seems pretty plausible.

Richard
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Richard

Amazing how April was so much below average.
Then boom on May 1 here comes the heat.
In the last 47 days we’ve had 1 day with temperatures below average, and that was only by 1 degree.

LYITC41
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LYITC41

This isn’t very scientific nor is it anything new but the weather in these parts is going to go back and forth between wet periods and dry periods, as it has done for millennia, even the worst droughts end as do the flooding times. Were in a temperate part of the world so were going to get all of what that throws at us. It’s fascinating to live in a place where you can have arctic conditions and just 6 mos. later have tropical or desert conditions. The wx here sucks sometimes, but it’s certainly not boring.

Richard
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Richard

San Juan National forest in CO is closed ! No hiking, no camping, no anything.
To keep people safe, but mainly to prevent human causing fires, carelessness.
Durango fire was already going, and one more erupted yesterday.
Park will be closed until they get sufficient moisture. When will that happen ?

Baseball Mike
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Baseball Mike

Good morning Gary What actually is causing these abnormal temps from the cold April to the past 7 weeks of above temps? We can use the general term of the LRC or say well it is the pattern. But did you see these abnormally high temps for May and June? Is it the dryness or combination of other factors on the east coast, west coast, or Gulf of Mexico as far as pressures being in the wrong place? It seems as though we had no spring at all and the actual drought period from 2011-2014 did have the heat domes… Read more »

Richard
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Richard

He didn’t see it. Didn’t predict it either.
Predicted dry, but not May and June being much above normal.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Not to nit-pick, but I’m gonna nit-pick. The symbol for Kansas City International airport is actually MCI, not KCI. 😉

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Not to nit-pick, but I’m going to nit-pick. LOL