Last Nights Thunderstorm Complex Was Hit & Miss Again

/Last Nights Thunderstorm Complex Was Hit & Miss Again

Last Nights Thunderstorm Complex Was Hit & Miss Again

Good morning bloggers,

Well, I just checked my rain gauge.  And, I was lucky to get the 0.42″ of rain.  As, it came at the last minute, just around 1 AM as thunderstorms grew over the south part of the KC metro area. There are spots that likely had a lot less.  KCI Airport only had 0.41″, and Johnson County Executive Airport in Olathe, KS had 0.42″ as well. There were other spots that likely had 1 to 2 inches of rain. The frustrations continue however.  Here was the nearly 1 AM radar image:

Screen Shot 2018-06-12 at 6.58.20 AM

I just checked, and I am not surprised, but Lee’s Summit, MO had a whopping 0.23″ of rain. Very sad. But, there are other chances showing up.  The pattern is cycling almost perfectly in the 46 to 49 day range, and it has been since it set up last October and November.  Do you know what is next? We are moving into the part of the pattern that formed a big vortex over Canada around late October into early November.  This will be cycling back through in the next two weeks.  This should provide more chances for rain and thunderstorms.  Will it continue to be mostly miss, and not even hit and miss?  That is something we will discuss in these next two weeks. Seriously, this vortex should cycle back through just as summer is arriving.

1

We will discuss the big LRC picture later in the week. But, for now, let’s look at todays weather pattern, as shown above.  A big upper high has formed over central Canada. We are moving into the part of the cycling pattern that did produce some wet conditions in eastern Kansas during the last ten days of October.  An upper high is also developing over the typical southwestern United States location.  This is causing the beginning of the summer monsoon, which is a seasonal wind that brings moisture to the southwestern United States which often leads to thunderstorms.  Hurricane Bud is also developing and a disturbance is also in the Caribbean Sea that is being monitored.  The disturbance in the Caribbean is one Weather2020 forecasted for potential development this week, but conditions are barely marginally favorable for development right now.

2

3

There is another potential set up for thunderstorms later tonight, but now KC is on the northern edge of this chance:

4

This is the GFS model solution.  And, I have low confidence in this verifying at the moment. If it was 100% accurate, then the south side of the KC metro would be in developing thunderstorms later tonight into Wednesday morning. It is something we will be monitoring closely in the next few hours.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Cloudy this morning with sunshine breaking out later. High:  87°
  • Tonight:  Increasing clouds with a chance of thunderstorms late. The chance of rain is highest to the south. Low:  68°
  • Wednesday:  There may be some showers or thunderstorms, most likely south, early in the day. Then, it will become sunny with a light northeast breeze.  High:  86°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Let us know if you have any questions. And, let us know how much rain you received.

Gary

2018-06-13T16:57:34+00:00June 12th, 2018|General|44 Comments

44 Comments

  1. Three7s June 12, 2018 at 7:44 am - Reply

    Got next to nothing in Independence, thus why I said Poof. If you were west of the state line, it looks like it was a bit more for most, but it was far weaker once you got over to the Missouri side.

  2. LYITC41 June 12, 2018 at 7:51 am - Reply

    .30″ here in S. OP about 123rd & Antioch, unbelievable considering what appeared to be coming at us from the north all evening. It’s not like it was a complex struggling to get here all the way from western KS. This started way closer and I thought for sure we’d get decent rains out of it, and some did. Reminiscent of 2012, watching storms fall apart right over us or just to our west and north. Happy for all who got good rain though.

  3. Snow Miser June 12, 2018 at 7:55 am - Reply

    Eastern Jackson County seems to have gotten only small amounts.

  4. Ben June 12, 2018 at 7:56 am - Reply

    Very welcome rain around Chillicothe. Had 0.5-1.5 in most spots. We have been missed most of the time. The crops look great this morning. Gary are you expecting a break in the heat for the 2nd half of June?

    • Gary June 12, 2018 at 8:07 am - Reply

      Ben,

      There will likely be a cooler stretch. I just am not sure how strong the summer push of cooler air will be. The cold pushes stopped getting this far south in May, so what will this late June version bring us? We will discuss more in the next few days after I have done some more analysis.

  5. Michael Casteel June 12, 2018 at 8:03 am - Reply

    I recorded .55″ up here in Maryville with 60 MPH winds and no hail. Clouds were dark and scary! Have a great day Bloggers,
    Michael

  6. Mr. Pete June 12, 2018 at 8:13 am - Reply

    How is it that the radar showed heavy rain echoes right over my house last night but it didn’t rain? Just wind….

    • Gary June 12, 2018 at 10:16 am - Reply

      Pete,

      NEXRAD Topeka had them right over your head, but due to the north wind blowing out of the initial gust front, the rain was pushed just south of you. It could easily be seen on NEXRAD Pleasant Hill, as the echoes closer to the ground were farther south just a bit. You missed it by a few blocks.

      Maybe you will get the northern edge of a complex tonight.

  7. Baseball Mike June 12, 2018 at 8:13 am - Reply

    Good morning Gary

    We finally had a good old fashioned Kansas thunderstorm as that large storm headed south into Topeka/Tecumseh/Berryton/
    Richland

    I recorded 1.65 which gives me over 14 inches for the year as a Colorado State precip observer.
    Had some wind just a brief shot of quarter size hail didn’t even last a minute. Take care,

    Michael/Berryton/Topeka

  8. Bill in Lawrence June 12, 2018 at 8:23 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Good beautiful morning to you sir!!

    Maximized the event last night with 1.3 inches….that is the best rain we have had in Washington Creek Valley in the past 5 weeks….the next best was .3 10 days ago. We were with moisture like the KU football team with wins….Futility!!! LOL I feel very lucky indeed and the corn, beans and grass are already responding this morning.

    Will be interesting to see how cycles 5 and 6 play all the way out. In my very humble opinion there are enough players to keep us from a 2012 type situation (honestly 2012 for the Lawrence area really doesn’t even break the top 10 in drought situations but it is the current poster child so I’ll go with that. I can’t imagine what we would do with a drought like 1854-1861….Lawrence experienced 7 year drought conditions that culminated between 1859-into late 1860 where they recorded one measurable rain and no snow….that is a drought) It won’t be fun this summer; it will get very dry and miserable and there will probably be 10-14 days in between decent rains so patience will be the key word. At the end of it all however, I would respectfully argue that this LRC will just have enough players to keep us from a true drought. One other silver lining is that we have now had 2 fronts come all the way through in the past 8 days….2 fronts in 8 days…that is not too bad..not wonderful but not bad.

    We will know in early September but I am not ready to write off this LRC…..I will come back and eat my crow but as of now I will stick to the idea that we will have just enough rain to keep the mowers running every 6-8 days….

    Have a great Tuesday everyone..

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  9. George June 12, 2018 at 8:35 am - Reply

    .10″ here at my place in OP 87th & Antioch.

  10. C.C June 12, 2018 at 8:58 am - Reply

    Had an inch in pleasant valley

  11. Anonymous June 12, 2018 at 9:16 am - Reply

    I had 1.8 inches near Rock Port.

  12. MikeL June 12, 2018 at 9:18 am - Reply

    0.95″ here in SW Topeka last night.

  13. Steve June 12, 2018 at 9:29 am - Reply

    1.62″ SW of Hiawatha.

  14. Anonymous June 12, 2018 at 9:57 am - Reply

    I had 1.8 inches in Rock Port, best rain event in a while.

  15. bench.warmer4 June 12, 2018 at 9:58 am - Reply

    I had 1.8 inches near Rock Port, best in a while.

  16. Kstater June 12, 2018 at 9:59 am - Reply

    1.75 in NW Lawrence maybe the best rain of the year so far. Hopefully this is the turning point and we can begin to get rain again.

    • j-ox June 12, 2018 at 4:08 pm - Reply

      Right on! Found 1.65 in my NW Lawrence rain gauge this AM!!

  17. Dan M. June 12, 2018 at 10:14 am - Reply

    2.10″ NE of Topeka. Most rain in one day since last year.

  18. Dan M. June 12, 2018 at 10:14 am - Reply

    Where’s Kurt? St. Joe looked like they finally had a lot of rain last night.

    • Kurt June 12, 2018 at 10:29 am - Reply

      8/10 last night, an inch from Saturday night. Saturday was very spotty thought and focused on a very narrow area. I was fortunate to get both Saturday’s and last nights. Helps the corn and beans and the hay.

  19. LYITC41 June 12, 2018 at 10:19 am - Reply

    Looking at some of these nice rain totals and some of the lesser amts. around me it’s obvious me and my surrounding area (S. OP) were in some kind of donut hole. Just to my south there were some nice 1″+ totals, incredible. That’s the way the raindrops fall sometimes. Now I know how the folks up in St Joe have felt for awhile, it’s a crappy feeling but again happy for the ones who got the rain they needed, some of you needed it way more than me.

  20. Steve June 12, 2018 at 10:19 am - Reply

    0 in Salina.

    • C.C June 12, 2018 at 11:06 am - Reply

      Dan Kurt’s gone hush since he is getting the rain now, nothing to complain about right now

  21. REAL HUMEDUDE June 12, 2018 at 10:48 am - Reply

    Got a full 1/2″ at the farm, most of the big cells split around the farm but we got some nice soaking blow-off showers. I am sure hoping we can score some more tonight, latest NAM is more disorganized and further north, who knows what it will do until HRRR catches up to the event we will be in the dark.

  22. Nate June 12, 2018 at 11:12 am - Reply

    Back in the day, we had these things called “Rainy days”

  23. DesertQueen June 12, 2018 at 11:40 am - Reply

    .07 six miles north of Weston. So disappointing. Bean crop is going to be bad and there will likely not be a second cut of hay in most fields in this area.
    Not even enough rain to speckle the gravel dust on the vehicles.

    • Kurt June 12, 2018 at 12:57 pm - Reply

      That’s close to where I live, the southwestern part of Buchanan county and northwestern Platte was really missed the last couple of times. Very much a hit or miss pattern.

      The official St. Joseph location is now at 7.73 inches year to date which is 6.99 below normal. Still a dry pattern overall and spotty on the rains.

      • DesertQueen June 12, 2018 at 3:05 pm - Reply

        We are in NW Platte, so you’re absolutely right. I’m not sure what the yearly total is at this point. I just know that hay is going to be in short supply this winter.

  24. Doug June 12, 2018 at 1:00 pm - Reply

    .80″ near 143rd and Switzer. Hoped for more but I cannot complain…

    • ClassyCat June 12, 2018 at 6:12 pm - Reply

      Ok. I guess I’m not crazy. I’m just west of 143rd and Switzer at 143rd and Bluejacket. My rain gauge said right at an inch even, but looking at folks who did report on here that were remotely close to me, I thought maybe my gauge was just improperly set or some other reason why it would say that….like maybe the sprinkler got some in it before it rained, but it was right at an inch.

  25. Nick June 12, 2018 at 1:18 pm - Reply

    Got a decent storm last night in northwest St. Joe. nice very heavy rain and frequent lightning, at least, ( even though the storms are still struggling a bit, it does feel that we are no longer the “center of nothing” and are actually getting some of the heavier events). So at least mentally it seems better than last summer so far. and right now it’s cloudy giving us a break from the heat which is nice as well.

  26. Jordan June 12, 2018 at 2:55 pm - Reply

    .24″ in Northern Wyandotte County. That stupid outflow boundary weakened them right when they were about to hit us, and then they restrengthened south of us.

  27. Heat Miser June 12, 2018 at 4:54 pm - Reply

    yeah, it rained hard and for a while in Lawrence last night.

  28. Matt June 12, 2018 at 5:30 pm - Reply

    Any updated thoughts on rain chances overnight and into the morning? I actually need it to hold off until tomorrow evening.

  29. Getmbuck June 12, 2018 at 6:07 pm - Reply

    0.85 at 131st and Blackbob in Olathe and 0.63 at my farm in Coffey County KS with 53 MPH wind gust recorded as well

    • Matt June 12, 2018 at 6:12 pm - Reply

      How many acres do you have in Coffee County?

  30. KirksvilleDave June 12, 2018 at 6:12 pm - Reply

    .54” in Kirksville.

  31. Trevor June 12, 2018 at 7:21 pm - Reply

    Anyone have an update on tonight’s storm chance

    • REAL HUMEDUDE June 12, 2018 at 9:31 pm - Reply

      Storm chances appear to be poofing….

      • Snow Miser June 12, 2018 at 9:50 pm - Reply

        NAM is hinting at storms Thursday morning, however.

        • REAL HUMEDUDE June 13, 2018 at 6:14 am - Reply

          That’s just the next poof. Same model had me getting blasted with huge MCS only a day ago, models are so terrible this year. They all need upgraded

  32. Jim June 13, 2018 at 5:47 am - Reply

    Chillicothe had .5-1.0 inches, we farm 9 miles east and had .5 -.8 inches. So we just keep barely holding on. Hope better news ahead.

Leave A Comment