Slight Risk Of Severe Weather Tonight

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4 PM Update:

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A Tornado Watch was issued for northwestern Missouri later this afternoon. We will be monitoring this are closely. The main severe weather risk type is damaging winds later this evening.

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The risk is definitely there, but there are still many questions on how this will evolve. We will go over the details on 41 Action News. The timing is still about the same as issued in the previous blog below.

Previous Blog Entry:

 

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Sunny and hot with no chance of thunderstorms. There will be a few afternoon clouds with a southeast breeze around 10 mph.  High: 95°
  • This evening from 6 PM – 8 PM:  Dry near KC. Thunderstorms will be forming north and west of KC.  Temperatures near 92°
  • 8 PM to Midnight:  Thunderstorms track southeast with a few possibly becoming severe. Damaging winds and some hail are the main risk types near KC. The chance of a thunderstorm in your backyard is 40%.
  • Tuesday:  Mostly sunny. High:  88°
  • Wednesday: A 30% chance of early morning thunderstorms. High: 87°

It reached 95 degrees yesterday at KCI Airport.  As the heat grows stronger, concerns for drought increase.  Let me begin with the HRRR rainfall forecast ending at 1 AM tonight:

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If this model is exactly right, then thunderstorms would form and track south-southeast just west of the state line around and after sunset tonight.  There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, in fact, the SPC upgraded the risk to an Enhanced Slight Risk:

day1otlk_1300

From the SPC:

"...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SOUTHEASTERN NE TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes, very
   large hail, and damaging gusts are expected late this afternoon into
   early tonight from southeastern Nebraska to northwestern Oklahoma. 
   More isolated severe storms will be possible farther north across
   Iowa and southern Minnesota, as well as along the corridor from
   northeastern Missouri to North Carolina.

   ...Southeastern NE to northwestern OK this afternoon into tonight...

   A surface cold front is moving southeastward across eastern SD/NE
   and northwestern KS early this morning, in association with a
   midlevel shortwave trough crossing the northern Plains.  The front
   will continue eastward into western MN/IA and southeastern NE to
   central KS by this evening, though motion of the front will slow in
   KS this afternoon.  Meanwhile, the warm sector is demarcated by a
   convectively-reinforced baroclinic zone from central IL to western
   IA and southwestern MN, with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints in the
   corridor between the boundaries from eastern KS into eastern NE. 
   This moisture, combined with strong surface heating and steep
   midlevel lapse rates, will support strong buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess
   of 3000 J/kg) this afternoon along and immediately ahead of the cold
   front, which will serve as the primary focus for severe thunderstorm
   development this afternoon/evening.

   As the surface front slows across KS by this afternoon, strong
   surface heating and deep mixing will result in large buoyancy and
   steep low-midlevel lapse rates.  These profiles will favor strong
   low-level stretching of vertical vorticity along the boundary by new
   updrafts, prior to the generation of widespread convective outflow. 
   Moreover, deep-layer vertical shear will be marginally favorable for
   supercells, and aligned such that supercell motion should largely
   parallel the boundary toward the south-southwest.  The net result
   will be the potential for supercells to move along the boundary and
   produce isolated very large hail and a few tornadoes with hybrid
   characteristics, mainly in the 21-01z time frame.  Thereafter,
   thunderstorm outflow should become more pervasive, and damaging
   winds will be the main threat this evening into early tonight.  The
   coverage of storms will likely become more isolated with
   southwestward extent across OK, though any persistent/back-building
   storms will have some large hail and damaging wind potential into
   late evening.

   ...Mid MS Valley and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
   Convection is ongoing in a couple of clusters from western IA to
   central IL, in association with low-level warm advection and MCVs. 
   This convection will help reinforce the stalled front along the same
   corridor, which should focus additional storm development this
   afternoon as the boundary layer to the south destabilizes.  One or
   more clusters may cross the area from northeastern MO across
   southern IL to KY this afternoon into early tonight, with an
   attendant threat for damaging winds and isolated large hail.  "

The risk was increased this morning due to the fact that there is no cloud cover at all, and the instability levels will be quite high.  The most likely development area is north and west of the KC viewing area as you can see on these next couple of maps.

HRRR 3 PM Surface Forecast:

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This forecast map, above, shows the 3 PM forecast.  Thunderstorms are modeled to begin forming around 3 PM north and west of Omaha, Nebraska.  Once they form, conditions are favorable for them to intensify and drop south-southeast.  The potential is there for large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is possible way up to the north and west of KC in the Enhanced Slight Risk Area.

6 PM Surface Forecast from the HRRR Model:
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By 6 PM, the thunderstorms are forecast to be organizing over southeastern Nebraska. Hopefully they form a bit farther east and not a bit farther west. If they form just one or two counties west of this area, then KC would be missed by this system entirely. If they form a bit farther east, then KC would be a target for heavy thunderstorms around 10 or 11 PM tonight.

10 PM Surface Forecast From The HRRR Model:

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This 10 PM surface map shows the thunderstorms tracking just west of KC.  After this system goes by, there is another chance on Tuesday night-Wednesday morning.  The GFS model tracks that chance southwest of KC as well, with no rain at all here. The NAM, and other models have a pretty good chance of a complex of thunderstorms early Wednesday morning near KC. Just like during the winter, the spring versions of these chances usually end up with the model that shows not much at all.  So, I have more concerns about missing Wednesdays chance as well. Let's begin with this first chance.  During the winter, we would present three chances showing up, and then it would be strike 1, 2, 3, and your out.  We take our first swing tonight.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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Jason
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Jason

.70″ just South of Lawrence last night. I’ll take it.

Melanie
Guest
Melanie

Only 1/8″ in Eastern Shawnee. Very dissapointing.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

0.29″ in Lenexa. Indian Creek still at it’s banks. pfft.

Nate
Guest
Nate

Whatever. Living in Tucson isn’t bad I guess

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

At least they expect it to be hot and dry there in early June. It’s actually a pretty nice town.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Just a few drops here. Not even measurable. But even if it had rained some it would bake off quickly by next few days.

TDogg
Guest
TDogg

Just over an inch k7 & k10.

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Says .71 in my digital rain gauge as the rain ends off 119th and K-7. Spot on forecast

Jonathan Stauch
Guest
Jonathan Stauch

shut up and enjoy the weather dry or wet 😂

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Radar would suggest that PV is getting heavy rain but not getting a drop. Sprinklers back on tomorrow!!!

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

Giving this storm a warning so far has not planned out at all. The rain is crazy but I don’t think the winds have even gusted over 20 mph.

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Some pea sized hail near 119th and K-7

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

How much in your NW Lawrence gauge, Skylar?
I had to break out the sprinklers over the weekend and did not even think to empty my gauge…

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

It’s like it’s dying at the Johnson County KS line.

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Except nothing on radar justifies that statement that it’s “dying” at the line. These storms will be slow to build behind the outflow so it should be another 30-45 before Overland Park gets hit.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Maybe just maybe 1/4 inch of rain tops. Will all bake off tomorrow…

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Kinda your fault for thinking the average location would receive 2-3 inches of rain from this.

Pretty sure everyone had this as a 1/2-3/4 inch scenario for the city if we got the severe weather portion since PWATs around 1.8-1.9.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Yeah just another glorified wind storm.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LAWRENCE is a bout to get severe weather

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

https://imgur.com/a/I33Od2P Yup seems like three7s and Mike can’t read radar

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

I’m in northern Wyandotte, and it looks like they’re correct from where I am. We haven’t (and probably won’t) get a drop.

Mike
Guest
Mike

Poof
Poof

TDogg
Guest
TDogg

Your an idiot

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Wrong. The storm out west looked good, but the further east you went, the weaker it got. I’m not even sure I got .10 of an inch, just another lousy windstorm. I said it once, I’ll say it again. Poof.

Mike
Guest
Mike

Poof!!!
Poof!!!

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Yep, falling apart right on top of us. Classic LRC.

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

No it’s not. It’s still pretty healthy. Heck, even the space between the two warnings had filled in with reds and pinks near Leavenworth and Lansing over the last 10-15 minutes. RadarScope shows this very well on the precipitation depectation (trust this more than super res reflectivity)

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

We are so dry in northern Wyandotte, and it looks like we’re getting the split. This pattern is so frustrating!

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

May have spoken too soon. I thought that outflow boundary was going to completely kill it.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Looks like Kurt is getting a good dousing right now.

Nate
Guest
Nate

Won’t do much of anything for our drought

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

we aren’t in much of a drought yet anyway…we ll take it

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Really need this ☔️ rain!

DaveC
Guest
DaveC

I don’t know.. just not feeling it again. I feel we’ve been burned way too many times in the pass. Line will weaken and break apart by the KC area..

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Just saw an outflow pop up on radar. I am no expert but I would say that is probably bad news for our rain chance this evening

Kstater
Guest
Kstater

These better start diving south faster. They may pass to the east of Lawrence if not.

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

The storms are moving SSE at 35mph

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

the line is growing and extending more south westward

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

No update? I know Gary has to be watching the radar…..

Fredd32
Guest
Fredd32

Finally looking like we will get some rain in Lee’s Summit. We have been lucky compared to some of you guys for sure but it has begun to get a little dry as the last few storms collapsed before they got this far Southeast. My fence was blown over 2 weeks ago and barely got a drop of rain to show for it.

Trevor
Guest
Trevor

How far southwest are the storms supposed to make it. Ottawa area?

Farmer Steve
Guest
Farmer Steve

I sure hope so Mr. Anderson.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

This does look much healthier on radar than the last several. I think we’ll get some good rain outta this finally.

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

I’m getting scared

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

MCS right now looks relatively healthy. Should make it through the immediate metro and should start to rapidly fall apart soon after. D-Cape looks rather good with the mid air intrusion and the inverted V Skew is reletively classic for a typical damaging wind MCS. Probably some 75+ mph reports in the area before it’s done.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Alrighty then! I’m sure everyone here knows what all that means. Makes you look smart though.

Larry
Guest
Larry

Lawrence has hit 100 degrees both Sunday and today. I can’t wait to see what the rest of June, July and August look like.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

On the satellite that storm over Omaha is basically as big as a small hurricane by now.

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

Bring on RAIN!

Matt
Guest
Matt

Severe Thunderstorm Watch to 3am.

terry
Guest
terry

Severe thunderstorm watch out for the city metro Until 1:00 a.m. Tuesday

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Really digging the latest HRRR run
Its a trifecta, blasts St.Joe, KC,and my farm!
Hoping everyone gets some rain because there isn’t a sole that couldn’t use it

Matt
Guest
Matt

Tornado Warning just south of Omaha.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Thunderstorm warning, not tornado warning

Richard
Guest
Richard

Matt
Tornado watch for Lincoln. Not sure where you see a tornado warning ?
Link or app ?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

There is,in fact ,tornado warning
South of Omaha.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Confirmed Tornado on the ground south Omaha, near Murray ,NE

Matt
Guest
Matt

Theirs one near MO boarder.

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

Gary do you think this will hold true for next? Or will it be updated like this week was, big change from what it was predicting for this week to what it now says.
Next week reads;
June 17
Active Weather Pattern 79°F / 59°F
A series of disturbances from the northwest and two main cold fronts could create thunderstorms. Each part of the region will have a good chance of thunderstorms for three to four days this week. Temperatures will run below to much below average. Go to Weather2020.com to join the LRC Forecast Experience Blog and learn more about this breakthrough technology.

Jackson in Gladstone
Guest
Jackson in Gladstone

PLEASE let this be true! I (and my lawn) could use it!

Matt
Guest
Matt

Storms are starting in Nebraska. Also some in KS and maybe Centralwest MO but that could ground cover.

Craig
Guest
Craig

Hey, Gary, just wondering if you’ve begun to consider the impact of Pacific Hurricane Bud. By early next week, the moisture from Bud should be flowing into the Southwest…possibly helping to relieve the drought if a disturbance or two could be timed to coincide with its arrival.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/203444.shtml?cone#contents

marlina10
Guest
marlina10

Why has it been so hot so early this year?

Matt
Guest
Matt

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0707.html and also 70% for Thunderstroms tonight.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Both the NAM *and* the HRRR are starting to look pooflacious.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Bahahahah! “Poofalicious”.

Craig
Guest
Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Yeah, latest one looks better. Crossing fingers. Just wish these things wouldn’t arrive in the middle of the night!

Craig
Guest
Craig
Matt
Guest
Matt

Were in between the Clouds at the moment. Also latest updated has extended Enhanced Risk into Iowa/Nebraska and gives us stil Wind.

Lisa Lu
Guest
Lisa Lu

I’ve been following Gary and the LRC for around 10 years now. This year I can really see the pattern and even the same but different experience. My least favorite pattern of all time. I live near 123rd/Antioch in OP and can’t pay for a rain drop! Couldn’t pay for a snowflake either. I’ve had a total of 2 rains that actually produced water in the gutters and these storms were months back. All the rest couldnt even get the deck wet. Was just watching JP’s noon video – right in the dry slot again. I do not like this… Read more »

FDRLincoln
Guest
FDRLincoln

HRRR now showing that Topeka/Lawrence/KS do get storms.

Models really struggle with this summer-like MCS pattern.

If I had to guess, I’d say that we do get a nice line come through before midnight but that it is mostly lightning and wind with disappointing rainfall totals, like what happened with the last robust MCS system. Better than nothing, but not enough to break the dryness completely.

Matt
Guest
Matt

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0706.html Going to start forming north of here. We wil a some point be also put under a Tornado Watch to because in between Warm and Cold fronts,

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

I doubt we’ll be put under a tornado watch. Maybe the area up north will though. However; we may be out under a severe thunderstorm watch.

Matt
Guest
Matt

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0172.html Tornado Watch Northern MO. EF2 Moderate.

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

If it were only 70 degrees cooler we’d have a doozy blizzard….bummer 😉

Matt
Guest
Matt
LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

For the moment, on visible satellite, there’s not a single cloud in the states of KS, CO, UT, NV, NM, AZ and the vast majority of CA, OK, and TX. That is so damned depressing. I hate this time of year.

Matt
Guest
Matt
yraG
Guest
yraG

POOF POOF POOF

Matt
Guest
Matt
TDogg
Guest
TDogg

Look at the 00Z-04Z.

Matt
Guest
Matt
TDogg
Guest
TDogg

No its not.

Alex Pickman
Guest
Alex Pickman

Day 1 Tor Risk is 5% not 30%

Matt
Guest
Matt

30% for Wind at moment.

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

Enhanced risk in KC. Wonder how this will play out tonight

Matt
Guest
Matt

…Lower/Mid-MO Valley to Ozark Plateau… A surface cyclone is centered over southeast SD with a cold front extending southwest into the southern High Plains. This boundary should gradually progress east with the surface low tracking southeast where the front occludes and intersects a warm front near the MO/IA border. Upper 60s to lower 70s boundary-layer dew points are prevalent within the warm sector south towards central/eastern OK. This moisture combined with nearly cloud-free insolation along with rather steep mid-level lapse rates, will support a large plume of very large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg. Initial storm development is anticipated… Read more »

Matt
Guest
Matt
Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

They just moved the enhanced area east to include right over KC.

Matt
Guest
Matt
Craig
Guest
Craig

Sweet! Please, dear Lord, send us water from the sky!!

Mason - Basehor
Guest
Mason - Basehor

I saw a post this weekend about the LRC and the hurricane center going head to head in a forecast for this week and I’m curious about Gary’s thoughts. I went to check the blog and the forecasts to compare. Last week in the June 7 blog video Gary called for a tropical storm June 10-15 off the west coast of Florida – and in the w2020 app forecast for Florida he says “A tropical storm, Beryl, will likely form in the southwest Carribean early in the week. The track of the system would take it to the north Gulf… Read more »

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

There is an interesting looking system off the coast of Nicaragua, I wouldn’t completely discount it. My money would still be with NHC but he may be on to something. I thought the next long range prediction for a tropical system was mid July.