Hard to Explain

/Hard to Explain

Hard to Explain

Good Saturday bloggers,

Well, this morning, once again, we tracked a functional and large MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) from South Dakota to Nebraska before it went poof in eastern Kansas. This is not the first time this has happened this season and it will likely not be the last. We are in the same pattern from the winter, remember the snow?

An outflow boundary and gravity wave emanated from the dissipating complex of thunderstorms early in the morning. These features often induce new thunderstorms to form and this happened on an isolated basis. Sometimes you get much more rain from the outflow boundary, but not this year.

This was the sky looking east around 7 AM. Really? It looked like this during the early morning in June and there was no rain? A few downpours did end up forming,  but my goodness.

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The thunderstorms were really rolling at 10:45 PM Friday and they had direct aim on KC. Also, note the thunderstorms in northeast Missouri. There was localized flooding from those, but certainly no drought busters.

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When I got up at 3 AM to get ready for work, I looked at the radar and I thought, oh my, here come the thunderstorms. The short range data did not even have the thunderstorms this far south. So, I got excited for a few minutes.  But….

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One and a half hours later when I got to 41 Action News this is what I saw. The same old thing, thunderstorms rapidly falling apart as the saw Kansas City.

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This is what was left of the thunderstorms by 935 AM Saturday, not much.  What a joke. Now, there is a small system located over northwest Iowa that is going to generate some great rain for eastern Iowa, Illinois and perhaps eastern Missouri. This system was supposed to be farther south, based on data from a few days ago. It s hard to believe we have all these clouds and so little rain.

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So, what is next? We do have one somewhat decent chance of at least scattered thunderstorms the next three days.

SATURDAY: The clouds will thin allowing us to rise into the 90s with 100s to the west. The thunderstorms are going to be found on the edge of the heat. The low in northwest Iowa will be generating thunderstorms in eastern Iowa today.

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SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY: The low shown above is going to generate a big complex of T-Storms in Illinois, eastern Iowa, moving into eastern Missouri. This is far from KC, but it is bringing great rain to prime corn belt real estate.

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SUNDAY: The heat remains in the same places with scattered ares of showers and thunderstorms on the edge of the heat. A few thunderstorms may sneak into northern Missouri during the morning.

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MONDAY: It will be another hot day with highs in the 90s. But, this time a cold front will be moving in from the west and this should generate a broken line of thunderstorms during the evening. This line will track across eastern Kansas and western Missouri during the night. Once again, not all locations will see rain, but the coverage will be higher than what we have been dealing with the last several days.

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So, the “Sprinkler Warning” is back on as the only rain chance the next few days is Monday evening.  If this falls through there is a chance Wednesday, but that does not look great either.

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Have a great weekend,

Jeff

2018-06-11T08:06:35+00:00 June 9th, 2018|General|22 Comments

22 Comments

  1. MikeL June 9, 2018 at 10:23 am - Reply

    Here in SW Topeka I picked up .05″ in a brief thundershower this morning while radar showed heavier rain passed just to my southwest. Better than nothing I guess…

  2. Snow Miser June 9, 2018 at 10:29 am - Reply

    How much money says the Monday night event goes POOF as well?

  3. Mr. Pete June 9, 2018 at 10:55 am - Reply

    Did Gary or Jeff write today’s blog? Has both names.

    • Tdogg June 9, 2018 at 11:31 am - Reply

      JoeK did

    • Richard June 9, 2018 at 3:00 pm - Reply

      Jeff did. It is the name at the end of the blog where he says have a great weekend.

      At the top it always says by Gary. Always.
      But at the end before comments you can always see who wrote it.
      And there is a distinct difference in style. Jeff rarely delves into LRC specifics.

      • Mr. Pete June 9, 2018 at 8:11 pm - Reply

        Why does the top always say by Gary?

        • Richard June 9, 2018 at 8:38 pm - Reply

          Don’t know. Ask Gary

  4. f00dl3 June 9, 2018 at 2:47 pm - Reply

    High res NAM has KC hitting 97 Sunday. Think we will make a run on 100?

  5. Jackson in Gladstone June 9, 2018 at 4:12 pm - Reply

    The LRC and the National Hurricane Center are about to go head-to-head in an interesting show-down.

    Two days ago, Gary called for a tropical storm to develop in the Gulf of Mexico — particularly along the west cost of Florida – between June 10th and 15th.
    He talked about it in the video he posted on the June 7th Blog.

    The NHC just put out this tweet:
    https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1005522111769776128
    2:45 PM EDT Saturday: The Atlantic basin remains quiet and tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Thursday. Remember to check http://hurricanes.gov for official information on Atlantic tropical systems. (Click tweet for map).

  6. MikeL_SWTopeka June 9, 2018 at 4:23 pm - Reply

    Test post…

  7. mark June 9, 2018 at 5:24 pm - Reply

    These seasonal forecasts or forecasts more than a few days off seem to be getting worse over time not better. Sometimes a storm will get hit on the head, but its few and far betweeek

  8. Snow Miser June 9, 2018 at 6:04 pm - Reply

    Latest GFS has the remnants of a tropical system going over KC on the 23rd. Not that it can be believed that far out.

  9. KS Jones June 9, 2018 at 7:04 pm - Reply

    Storm in southeastern Nebraska heading toward St. Joe.
    https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=oax&product=N0R&loop=yes

    • Richard June 9, 2018 at 7:23 pm - Reply

      Sweet ! Hope St Joe gets a good drink !

  10. Emaw June 9, 2018 at 8:21 pm - Reply

    Kurt, I hope it’s pouring on you up in St. Joe right now.

  11. Kstater June 9, 2018 at 8:42 pm - Reply

    After tonight’s event st joe will have received more rain on the year than we have here in Lawrence.

  12. NoBeachHere June 9, 2018 at 8:49 pm - Reply

    Over / Under that storm holds and gets the ne side of the metro.

    • Three7s June 9, 2018 at 9:43 pm - Reply

      Pretty obvious how that turned out. Poof.

  13. Nick June 10, 2018 at 1:26 am - Reply

    We got the isolated storm this time in St. Joe, looked pretty cool too, with the sun trying to shine through the storm which made the underside of the shelf cloud and the rain behind it look orange with flickering lightning, ended up having gusty winds and then very heavy rain with pea sized hail in the northwest part of St. Joe.

  14. f00dl3 June 10, 2018 at 7:52 am - Reply

    Weather pattern alot like 2001 but just add on 5 to 10 degrees. Expect a 15 day stretch of temps 95 to 105 in August. Tropical Storm may hit Houston next weekend.

  15. Matt June 10, 2018 at 8:13 am - Reply

    SPC still has area under a Slight Risk Monday.

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