Will It Turn Wet Or Not?

/Will It Turn Wet Or Not?

Will It Turn Wet Or Not?

Good morning bloggers,

Screen Shot 2018-06-07 at 7.40.53 AM

The only alerts that are numerous this morning are the smog alerts, the ozone alerts in gray.  It is a fairly quiet morning across the United States when it comes to watches, warnings, and advisories.  There are complexes of thunderstorms, however:

Screen Shot 2018-06-07 at 7.18.23 AM

There is a disturbance coming our way, and yet we are not sure if it will rain or not.  Looking at the models is almost no help in the KC metro area.  But, there is a lot of rain forecast by some of the models during the next ten days. Here is todays video:

Have a  great day!

Gary

2018-06-09T09:41:15+00:00June 7th, 2018|General|38 Comments

38 Comments

  1. Three7s June 7, 2018 at 7:54 am - Reply

    No chance this rain on radar makes it. The most intense area of thunderstorms is going southeast, well away from the area. The area to the north is going to die long before it makes it.

  2. jsquibble June 7, 2018 at 8:12 am - Reply

    we need to rename the kc area Wakanda as anything that tries to come in just falls apart and dies lol

  3. C.C June 7, 2018 at 8:54 am - Reply

    Gary off track a little bit here,
    Going to ask for a hurricane forecast, if you think there will be one around the first week of July

    • Gary June 7, 2018 at 1:20 pm - Reply

      We have a seasonal analysis done, and there are two possible big systems that will either near the beginning to the middle of July, or in the second half of August into September. The northeast Gulf of Mexico is the biggest target.

      Gary

      • Brittany June 7, 2018 at 2:36 pm - Reply

        Gary, going down to Disney for the 4th of July, so I guess what I’m asking is, when you say maybe the beginning of July, do you have kind of a time frame?

  4. Michel Casteel June 7, 2018 at 10:06 am - Reply

    I recorded .23” inches of rain up here in Maryville Missouri have a great day bloggers Michael

  5. Snow Miser June 7, 2018 at 10:55 am - Reply

    If nothing else, all these clouds are keeping things cool.

  6. REAL HUMEDUDE June 7, 2018 at 11:01 am - Reply

    I’d think there has to be a significant outflow boundary left by these storms in KS.
    As formal title of the blog, that’s why we come here, to find out! I’m not seeing a clear indication to the answer, are we basically nowcasting until the next LRC? How can the models be this unreliable? It’s 2018, seems like weather was more accurate 20 years ago than it is today. Maybe that’s right maybe not, super frustrating we have no reliable forecasting tools.

  7. Roger June 7, 2018 at 11:16 am - Reply

    Only 0.10 – 0.25 inches have been recorded across the majority of central and southcentral Kansas. The big winners were from Medicine Lodge, KS, southeast to Enid, Stillwater, and OKC.

  8. Mason - Basehor June 7, 2018 at 11:17 am - Reply

    I, for one, can’t wait for the huge cool-down the next two weeks that W2020 is forecasting for the KC metro:


    June 10
    Many Weather Changes
    72°F / 53°F
    The week will start very warm and humid with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms as weak disturbances drift across the Plains. Then a stronger system and cold front will track west to east across the region, bringing a good chance of rain and thunderstorms for two to three days. Some thunderstorms may be severe with very heavy rain. Eastern sections of Kansas and Nebraska and all of Iowa and Missouri have the best chance for the heavy rain. After the system and front it will be much cooler with little chance of rain. Showers may linger in Iowa and Missouri. Go to Weather2020.com to join the LRC Forecast Experience Blog and learn more about this breakthrough technology.

    June 17
    Active Weather Pattern
    78°F / 59°F
    A series of disturbances from the northwest and two main cold fronts could create thunderstorms. Each part of the region will have a good chance of thunderstorms for three to four days this week. Temperatures will run below to much below average. Go to Weather2020.com to join the LRC Forecast Experience Blog and learn more about this breakthrough technology.

    • Richard June 7, 2018 at 11:29 am - Reply

      I hope thats right

    • Michael Garner June 7, 2018 at 11:31 am - Reply

      I asked about this yesterday, I don’t believe it happen, but I’m not the expert

    • f00dl3 June 7, 2018 at 1:25 pm - Reply

      Keep on dreamin. We need rain first!

    • REAL HUMEDUDE June 7, 2018 at 1:51 pm - Reply

      Mason – that W2020 forecast is so obviously bad it hurts my eyes to read it. Its clear there is little threat of a cold front, let alone a powerful cold front that will render temps below to MUCH below average. I don’t see a single high next week under 88F, that’s still almost 5F above average. Most days will be in the 90s unless there is a debris cloud field to content with like we have today that’s messing with temps. Sure, we might get a storm complex or two in the NW flow he describes, but a strong cold front almost sounds like a joke right now. We haven’t had a strong cold front since April, somehow went the entire month of May and couldn’t generate even one decent cold front yet its now going to happen in June 2X in a week? That forecast needs to be revised to mostly upper 80’s to lower 90’s and slight chances for thunderstorms. We can almost forget about cold fronts now, this LRC is devoid of them in the warmer months according to what has already evolved. This is a messiest LRC I’ve ever seen, absolutely unpredictable, yet predictable all at same time.

      • Gary June 7, 2018 at 4:40 pm - Reply

        Jeff wrote that forecast 12 weeks ago, and I agree with you. This should be updated as we get closer, and experience what we have been experiencing. Remember, these are made for the region,so when the cold front gets into Nebraska and Iowa, and stalls, it is likely still going to be there. If that makes sense. We can do much better, and will. Now, quite often, a long range forecast will be criticized, and then it ended up more accurate than that perception was before it verified. But, as I said, we will do much better, just need more time to pour into it.

        Gary

        • REAL HUMEDUDE June 7, 2018 at 4:46 pm - Reply

          After the April we had, I would have forecasted same thing! It’s just a insane,loco LRC this year. It’s not as stable as most patterns have been over the years, not as reliable

          • Gary June 7, 2018 at 4:57 pm - Reply

            Not sure I agree with you here. And, there is a rather strong cold front showing up before the 20th, which is right on schedule. The hardest part is in the forecasting aggressively for rain. Your area at the farm got hit pretty good, and Cameron, MO is now water rationing as of this afternoon. Very difficult to forecast this variety in our local area.

            Gary

  9. Richard June 7, 2018 at 11:35 am - Reply

    Gary
    So I guess you won’t be giving a summer forecast ? You have not mentioned it.

    But I would like to know if you think we will have any extensive heat waves,
    Like how many 100 + days, and how long. Rather length of heat waves.
    I think a heat wave is 3 straight days of 95 plus, right ?

    Guess thats too much to ask ?

    • Craig June 7, 2018 at 11:49 am - Reply

      You can be such a pain in the ass, Richard, that I’m not sure I would reply to you, either.

      • Michael Garner June 7, 2018 at 12:07 pm - Reply

        I guess I must be too as I asked several times to the point that I gave up asking. Appreciate your positive input towards this conversation

    • Tdogg June 7, 2018 at 12:06 pm - Reply

      Instead of Richard, can I call you Dick?

      • TDogg June 7, 2018 at 12:41 pm - Reply

        Sure. Dumbass.

    • Gary June 7, 2018 at 1:23 pm - Reply

      The next two weeks will be important for our potential of having 100 degree days. If it stays dry, then the chance is much increased. The latest GFS continues to show 3 to 8 inches of rain in our area during this next two week period, so it is a big test, then we can discuss the summer heat. Last summer was locally very wet, while surrounding areas were dry, and this lead to 100 degree temperatures all around KC, but just not our local region. This is why I am paying close attention. The past five years have not had one 100 degree day recorded at KCI, and this is through five different LRC’s.

      Gary

      • Richard June 7, 2018 at 6:48 pm - Reply

        Thanks Gary

  10. Mason - Basehor June 7, 2018 at 12:04 pm - Reply

    My money is on Richard getting blocked soon, much like Snowflake did, for asking the tough questions.

  11. Snow Miser June 7, 2018 at 12:30 pm - Reply

    HRRR is now showing small storms in the area around 5-6 pm
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018060716/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_7.png

    • REAL HUMEDUDE June 7, 2018 at 1:42 pm - Reply

      HRRR has been drinking hard liquor lately though, it had the storms making it into KC last night – Miss
      Earlier it had my area getting big storms redeveloping off an outflow – miss
      atmosphere is a jumbled mess right now, the HRRR nor any model has a clue what is evolving today, tomorrow, or the next day. All very small scale features, not big storm system or true front to be had. Simply have to watch radar and see what’s coming down the pike, or if there is an obvious outflow boundary in you area – then you can maybe try to forecast something but using a model is pretty much worthless right now.

    • jsquibble June 7, 2018 at 1:45 pm - Reply

      not sure if the HRRR is going to be correct as it doesnt show the big complex of storms heading towards dallas currently

      • REAL HUMEDUDE June 7, 2018 at 1:54 pm - Reply

        Its gone bonkers, its output is trash right now. It was great just a few days ago, when things are more settled its more accurate. When its trying to pinpoint outflows good luck, its a terrible at doing that. What I cant understand is how when it updates on the hour it still doesn’t see the large MCS systems that have been alive for many hours, its really, really, BAD right now.

  12. Anonymous June 7, 2018 at 1:28 pm - Reply

    VERY cool news coming from NASA today about Mars. The rover drilled down in the ancient lake bed and found organics. The rover also confirmed seasonal fluctuations of methane in the atmosphere – the spikes are coming during the summer months.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE June 7, 2018 at 4:50 pm - Reply

      They better Keep the “Organics” safely away from Earth. Who knows what kind of bug might in that sediment, ancient Virus or god knows what. Keep the Martians on Mars, but I agree very cool and basically proves aliens are real even though who even really doubts that there’s life elsewhere when space is nearly infinite?

      • Richard June 7, 2018 at 6:47 pm - Reply

        Sounds like the conspiracy theorist Clyde Lewis on Ground Zero.
        He thinks the ISS might be endangering earth with their experiments.
        He’s paranoid as hell.

    • Heat Miser June 7, 2018 at 8:09 pm - Reply

      which doesn’t mean life …not really that exciting…just a potential building block..have heard that before. When can show life existed, get back to me

  13. Emaw June 7, 2018 at 8:56 pm - Reply

    Radar is bone dry from here to Colorado.

  14. Nick June 7, 2018 at 9:04 pm - Reply

    This past week has been a long one, had a family medical emergency so the past week has felt like a month, Did have two(three) storm events in St. Joe since last Saturday Morning, one coming home from the hospital in high winds and then hitting the heavy rain, then last night we had a high wind event when storms collapsed on us, we lost 3 5 foot or so long branches, and there was a split tree that crashed into another tree and was blocking the sidewalk on my walk to work today, watching the clouds of dust whip up on the football field close to the house was insane looking, and saw 5 power flashes. then later last night we had a nice thunderstorm with heavy rain and some loud positive lightning strikes afterward.

  15. Nate June 7, 2018 at 9:47 pm - Reply

    Just noticed NWS dropped their percentage chances way down for the next 4 days, then again they don’t even make the cut as far as accuracy. 5th grade science class could do a better job

  16. Mr. Pete June 7, 2018 at 11:10 pm - Reply

    Sprinklers back on.

  17. f00dl3 June 8, 2018 at 7:19 am - Reply

    Next week is drying up too….
    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/2018060806/CGP/GFSCGP_prec_precacc_384.png

    For 15 days at this time of year, barely over an inch.

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