Good Monday bloggers,
We should be talking about a large area of rain and thunderstorms today tracking across Kansas. Why? Well, it is early June, which is on average the wettest time of year and there is a nice disturbance heading across the state. However, since we lost the higher dew points, we are talking about thick mid to high level clouds, sprinkles and light showers. So, today we will not see more than a trace to perhaps .02″.
Today at 8 AM there are lots of clouds, but very little rain. There were some nice thunderstorms that tracked from west Texas to Dallas.
Let’s update the prospects for rain the next 5-7 days as there are chances, but my goodness, getting widespread rain around here is like pulling teeth. The first ingredient needed for thunderstorms is increased heat and humidity and that is just around the corner.
TUESDAY: It will become sunny with highs near 90° and dew points will be climbing back to the mid 60s.
WEDNESDAY: We will see some high clouds, but highs return to the low 90s with dew points nearing 70°. So, the air mass will be ready for thunderstorms, now we need a trigger.
The trigger is sitting from Colorado to Nebraska in the form of a stationary front. In the upper levels there will be disturbances tracking out of the Rockies. These features will combine to bring thunderstorms to Nebraska and the western Plains.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING: Look at the widespread thunderstorms from Iowa to Wyoming, south to western Kansas. These are in prime position to track southeast and affect eastern Kansas and western Missouri. It is quite hard to explain as the models bring all of this south and completely dissipate them before reaching our area, despite the upper level wave moving by. So, Thursday morning there is a chance of some thunderstorms as the models may be wrong or we see these thunderstorms in a weakened state.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING: The same set up exists from what was there on Wednesday afternoon. The data has the thunderstorms getting into the area before falling apart. The law of averages says we should at least get one decent round of rain Thursday-Saturday. Yes, the set up is there Friday night into Saturday as well.
The rainfall forecast for the next 7 days has most of the rain from Iowa/Minnesota to Ohio which is great news for the main part of the corn belt. Kansas and Missouri are south of the heavier rain zone, but that still does not mean the heavier zone doesn’t shift south and/or 1-2 thunderstorm complexes track farther south bringing more than .25″ to 2″ of rain in our area.
All that said, the “Sprinkler Warning” continues until we see hard evidence that a decent rain is on the way. And, any decent rain is still four days away, so keep the sprinklers on if you want the yard to stay unstressed and green.
Have a great week.