Sprinkler Warning Update

/Sprinkler Warning Update

Sprinkler Warning Update

Good Monday bloggers,

We should be talking about a large area of rain and thunderstorms today tracking across Kansas. Why? Well, it is early June, which is on average the wettest time of year and there is a nice disturbance heading across the state. However, since we lost the higher dew points, we are talking about thick mid to high level clouds, sprinkles and light showers. So, today we will not see more than a trace to perhaps .02″.

Today at 8 AM there are lots of clouds, but very little rain. There were some nice thunderstorms that tracked from west Texas to Dallas.

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Let’s update the prospects for rain the next 5-7 days as there are chances, but my goodness, getting widespread rain around here is like pulling teeth. The first ingredient needed for thunderstorms is increased heat and humidity and that is just around the corner.

TUESDAY: It will become sunny with highs near 90° and dew points will be climbing back to the mid 60s.

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WEDNESDAY: We will see some high clouds, but highs return to the low 90s with dew points nearing 70°. So, the air mass will be ready for thunderstorms, now we need a trigger.

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The trigger is sitting from Colorado to Nebraska in the form of a stationary front. In the upper levels there will be disturbances tracking out of the Rockies. These features will combine to bring thunderstorms to Nebraska and the western Plains.

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WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING: Look at the widespread thunderstorms from Iowa to Wyoming, south to western Kansas. These are in prime position to track southeast and affect eastern Kansas and western Missouri. It is quite hard to explain as the models bring all of this south and completely dissipate them before reaching our area, despite the upper level wave moving by. So, Thursday morning there is a chance of some thunderstorms as the models may be wrong or we see these thunderstorms in a weakened state.

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THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING: The same set up exists from what was there on Wednesday afternoon. The data has the thunderstorms getting into the area before falling apart. The law of averages says we should at least get one decent round of rain Thursday-Saturday. Yes, the set up is there Friday night into Saturday as well.

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The rainfall forecast for the next 7 days has most of the rain from Iowa/Minnesota to Ohio which is great news for the main part of the corn belt.  Kansas and Missouri are south of the heavier rain zone, but that still does not mean the heavier zone doesn’t shift south and/or 1-2 thunderstorm complexes track farther south bringing more than .25″ to 2″ of rain in our area.

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All that said, the “Sprinkler Warning” continues until we see hard evidence that a decent rain is on the way. And, any decent rain is still four days away, so keep the sprinklers on if you want the yard to stay unstressed and green.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

2018-06-20T07:04:45+00:00 June 4th, 2018|General|25 Comments

25 Comments

  1. Snow Miser June 4, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

    At least it’s nice and cool today!!

  2. LYITC41 June 4, 2018 at 9:48 am - Reply

    Sprinkler warning?!? Oh brother, definitely a slow wx day.

    • Richard June 4, 2018 at 10:09 am - Reply

      Sprinkler warning # 2.
      # 1 was yesterday

      • Heat Miser June 4, 2018 at 12:48 pm - Reply

        I’m calling for a Sprinkler Warning Poof Alert.

  3. Richard June 4, 2018 at 10:12 am - Reply

    Where’s Gary
    When will you do a summer forecast.
    Summer is only 2 weeks away.

    • LYITC41 June 4, 2018 at 11:06 am - Reply

      Last summer’s was a fail so he might be inclined not to do one.

      • Richard June 4, 2018 at 11:14 am - Reply

        I don’t recall it being a fail. But my memory…..

        • LYITC41 June 4, 2018 at 11:21 am - Reply

          I believe he said hot and dry, drought, and multiple 100F deg days. I remember it rained a lot and temps were avg to a little below avg and everything stayed pretty green at least where I’m at and yes, I know some got way less rain than others, in some cases not that far away.

  4. f00dl3 June 4, 2018 at 11:57 am - Reply

    My memory of Gary’s forecasting last summer was his numerous graphics showing the LRC temperature forecasts with multiple days over 100 approaching 105F here in KC. That never happened.

    http://weather2020.com/2017/04/27/cool-end-of-april-hot-july/

    • Gary June 4, 2018 at 5:08 pm - Reply

      The very heavy rain events affected that forecast. I do think this is the summer to finally end this, almost, five year stretch below an official high of 100 degrees at KCI Airport. I will forecast a few this summer. We aren’t getting any very heavy rain events, and the drier vegetation will have an impact.

      Gary

  5. f00dl3 June 4, 2018 at 12:01 pm - Reply

    But that being said he did hit the hottest days on the head – was 98 though, not 102-104.

  6. KS Jones June 4, 2018 at 12:34 pm - Reply

    It is currently 66° out here (north of Manhattan). Had light sprinkles of rain from 9 to 11:45 AM, but it is clearing now, and patches of blue sky are showing out west.
    P.S. It hit 100° on July 10th here last year, and it hit 100° three more days before July 17th.

  7. Stl78(winon,mn) June 4, 2018 at 4:01 pm - Reply

    That is true about his forecast last yr but there was record breaking heat near by. St. Louis was a scorcher for example with many days in triple digits. It doesn’t make his forecast verify but he was close if that counts for anything in your eyes

  8. Larry June 4, 2018 at 4:38 pm - Reply

    Hi Gary, we are really dry in Lawrence and could use some rain. I’ve only recorded 8.41″ year to date at my house which puts us at 9.94″ below average going back to Nov 1, 2017. (I’ve been running monthly precipitation deficits since 11/01/2017).

    I noticed on the 1Weather app the forecast for the week of 06/10 in Lawrence is calling for 2-3 days of thunderstorms and some storms may be severe with very heavy rain. The forecast says Eastern K, NE, IA and MO have the best chance for the heavy rain. Do you see this long-range forecast verifying for next week?

    Thanks, Larry

    • Gary June 4, 2018 at 5:05 pm - Reply

      Larry,

      Yes, as we approach next week, there should be better chances for rain. It is getting drier in many areas, and now as temperatures warm up we need even more rain. This weeks chance is lining up on Friday morning, but not much before then. We are in a dry pattern, and have been in one since November. There is some hope that the next ten days will finally produce heavier rains in our area.

      Gary

      • Richard June 4, 2018 at 6:51 pm - Reply

        Gary
        You thought the second half of May was going to be wet

        Always 10 days away.

        • REAL HUMEDUDE June 4, 2018 at 8:19 pm - Reply

          I got nearly 9″ of rain, and plenty other places got floods too. Not a total miss for Gary’s forecast

          • Mr. Pete June 4, 2018 at 10:24 pm - Reply

            Just curious – where around here has it flooded this year? All the local lakes are still well below normal pool.

            • KS Jones June 4, 2018 at 11:20 pm - Reply
              • Mr. Pete June 5, 2018 at 1:38 am

                Perry hasn’t been at pool all year. Where are the lakes at flood?

              • REAL HUMEDUDE June 5, 2018 at 6:57 am

                Perry is right in the dry spot. 50 miles south west of town and most areas have had a couple 3-4″ rains. SE KS has had some huge rains this year

        • Gary June 5, 2018 at 8:32 am - Reply

          Richard,

          Kansas City had over 3″ in the second half of May with seven days of rain in those 15 days. So, it was wetter in the second half of the month. I don’t like it when we get called out for being wrong when in fact we are right.

          Gary

  9. Brian June 4, 2018 at 9:10 pm - Reply

    I don’t remember the last seasonal forecast that was close. He does hit a couple things from time to time to keep you wondering if there’s something however.

    • Snow Miser June 5, 2018 at 8:10 am - Reply

      For the winter he did say it was going to be colder and dryer than normal, both of which were right. What he got wrong was that he thought the cold would result in more snow in spite of the dry. So, 2 out of 3 ain’t bad.

      • JoeK June 5, 2018 at 9:12 am - Reply

        Snow.,

        Nice observation, the winter forecast was a very good seasonal forecast.

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