Sprinkler Warning Update

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good Monday bloggers,

We should be talking about a large area of rain and thunderstorms today tracking across Kansas. Why? Well, it is early June, which is on average the wettest time of year and there is a nice disturbance heading across the state. However, since we lost the higher dew points, we are talking about thick mid to high level clouds, sprinkles and light showers. So, today we will not see more than a trace to perhaps .02″.

Today at 8 AM there are lots of clouds, but very little rain. There were some nice thunderstorms that tracked from west Texas to Dallas.

1

Let’s update the prospects for rain the next 5-7 days as there are chances, but my goodness, getting widespread rain around here is like pulling teeth. The first ingredient needed for thunderstorms is increased heat and humidity and that is just around the corner.

TUESDAY: It will become sunny with highs near 90° and dew points will be climbing back to the mid 60s.

2

WEDNESDAY: We will see some high clouds, but highs return to the low 90s with dew points nearing 70°. So, the air mass will be ready for thunderstorms, now we need a trigger.

3

The trigger is sitting from Colorado to Nebraska in the form of a stationary front. In the upper levels there will be disturbances tracking out of the Rockies. These features will combine to bring thunderstorms to Nebraska and the western Plains.

8

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING: Look at the widespread thunderstorms from Iowa to Wyoming, south to western Kansas. These are in prime position to track southeast and affect eastern Kansas and western Missouri. It is quite hard to explain as the models bring all of this south and completely dissipate them before reaching our area, despite the upper level wave moving by. So, Thursday morning there is a chance of some thunderstorms as the models may be wrong or we see these thunderstorms in a weakened state.

4

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING: The same set up exists from what was there on Wednesday afternoon. The data has the thunderstorms getting into the area before falling apart. The law of averages says we should at least get one decent round of rain Thursday-Saturday. Yes, the set up is there Friday night into Saturday as well.

5

The rainfall forecast for the next 7 days has most of the rain from Iowa/Minnesota to Ohio which is great news for the main part of the corn belt.  Kansas and Missouri are south of the heavier rain zone, but that still does not mean the heavier zone doesn’t shift south and/or 1-2 thunderstorm complexes track farther south bringing more than .25″ to 2″ of rain in our area.

6

All that said, the “Sprinkler Warning” continues until we see hard evidence that a decent rain is on the way. And, any decent rain is still four days away, so keep the sprinklers on if you want the yard to stay unstressed and green.

7

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

25
Leave a Reply

avatar
9 Comment threads
16 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
13 Comment authors
JoeKGarySnow MiserREAL HUMEDUDEMr. Pete Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Brian
Guest
Brian

I don’t remember the last seasonal forecast that was close. He does hit a couple things from time to time to keep you wondering if there’s something however.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

For the winter he did say it was going to be colder and dryer than normal, both of which were right. What he got wrong was that he thought the cold would result in more snow in spite of the dry. So, 2 out of 3 ain’t bad.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Snow.,

Nice observation, the winter forecast was a very good seasonal forecast.

Larry
Guest
Larry

Hi Gary, we are really dry in Lawrence and could use some rain. I’ve only recorded 8.41″ year to date at my house which puts us at 9.94″ below average going back to Nov 1, 2017. (I’ve been running monthly precipitation deficits since 11/01/2017). I noticed on the 1Weather app the forecast for the week of 06/10 in Lawrence is calling for 2-3 days of thunderstorms and some storms may be severe with very heavy rain. The forecast says Eastern K, NE, IA and MO have the best chance for the heavy rain. Do you see this long-range forecast verifying… Read more »

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

That is true about his forecast last yr but there was record breaking heat near by. St. Louis was a scorcher for example with many days in triple digits. It doesn’t make his forecast verify but he was close if that counts for anything in your eyes

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

It is currently 66° out here (north of Manhattan). Had light sprinkles of rain from 9 to 11:45 AM, but it is clearing now, and patches of blue sky are showing out west.
P.S. It hit 100° on July 10th here last year, and it hit 100° three more days before July 17th.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

But that being said he did hit the hottest days on the head – was 98 though, not 102-104.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

My memory of Gary’s forecasting last summer was his numerous graphics showing the LRC temperature forecasts with multiple days over 100 approaching 105F here in KC. That never happened.

https://weather2020.com/2017/04/27/cool-end-of-april-hot-july/

Richard
Guest
Richard

Where’s Gary
When will you do a summer forecast.
Summer is only 2 weeks away.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Last summer’s was a fail so he might be inclined not to do one.

Richard
Guest
Richard

I don’t recall it being a fail. But my memory…..

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

I believe he said hot and dry, drought, and multiple 100F deg days. I remember it rained a lot and temps were avg to a little below avg and everything stayed pretty green at least where I’m at and yes, I know some got way less rain than others, in some cases not that far away.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Sprinkler warning?!? Oh brother, definitely a slow wx day.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Sprinkler warning # 2.
# 1 was yesterday

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I’m calling for a Sprinkler Warning Poof Alert.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

At least it’s nice and cool today!!