Drought Extends Out Into Northern Missouri: A Look At The LRC Cycles

Good morning bloggers,

IMG_3693

I will begin todays blog entry with Sunny The Weather Dog showing the tops of old thunderstorms.  These thick anvil cirrus clouds were what was leftover after Kansas thunderstorms fell apart long before they made it into eastern Kansas.  At this time of the year this is a very difficult thing to happen, to have thunderstorms not make it east to KC.  Alberto made landfall on the Florida Panhandle on Memorial Day and Kansas City was on the western fringe of the circulation.  A few isolated thunderstorms formed and tracked west over our area due to this influence on Monday.

The LRC In Kansas City & Amarillo:

The Northern Hemisphere is in the sixth cycle of this years pattern. The LRC sets up in October and we have identified October 6th as the beginning of this years pattern.  Today is day 1 of LRC Cycle 6. Let’s look at how the cycles have produced in KC and AMA.

  • LRC Cycle 1, October 6 – November 22:  KCI (5.07″ & No Snow), AMA (0.22″ & No Snow)
  • LRC Cycle 2, November 23 – January 7:  KCI (0.37″ & 2.2″), AMA (Trace & Trace)
  • LRC Cycle 3, January 8 – February 23:  KCI (2.19″ & 3.6″), AMA (0.01″ & Trace)
  • LRC Cycle 4, February 24 – April 11:  KCI (2.27″ & 1.9″), AMA (0.24″ & Trace)
  • LRC Cycle 5, April 12 – May 28:  KCI (5.69″ & T), AMA (0.78″ & Trace)
  • LRC Cycle 6: May 29 – July 14
  • LRC Cycle 7:  July 15- August 30
  • LRC Cycle 8:  August 31 – this LRC ends, and new LRC begins in early October 2018

The drought has continued over northern Missouri. St. Joseph, MO has had less than 5″ of rain so far this year, which is incredible, and the lowest total ever recorded through May. Here is the drought monitor:

Screen Shot 2018-05-29 at 6.37.15 AM

The “exceptional drought”, as described by the Climate Prediction Center, was located from parts of Arizona east to Amarillo, TX.  The northeastern extension of the drought extends through the St. Joseph, MO region.  We are experiencing now symptoms of why we didn’t have much snow during the winter. This pattern continues to frustrate many of us.

There are Flash Flood Watches today.  Here are the advisories:

Screen Shot 2018-05-29 at 6.29.08 AM

Look at the rainfall forecast for the next ten days from last nights European Model:

Screen Shot 2018-05-29 at 6.36.04 AM

There is a risk of severe weather today:

day1otlk_1200

We are in the forecasted active period from months ago to arrive between May 28th – June 3rd, but Kansas City will continue to struggle to have any good chances of thunderstorms. One of these chances will arrive later tonight, so let’s monitor these thunderstorms closely. But, again, we are experiencing symptoms of why we got missed all winter long when it came to functional producing storm systems for snow.

Kansas City Forecast:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny.  Light east to southeast winds around 5-15 mph. High:  91°
  • Tonight:  Increasing clouds with thunderstorms approaching and weakening. They may make it into the KC area. The chance of thunderstorms is 40% later tonight.  Low:  67°
  • Wednesday:  There is a chance of early morning thunderstorms.  High:  88°

The tropical season got an early start.  It is not unheard of to have an early named storm, but it rarely does happen.  Weather2020 made a forecast for a very active hurricane season predicting Florida as being in the center of the targeted region for the season.  This is just the beginning of what will likely end up being quite wild.  Again, Alberto was predicted by Weather2020 137 days before it happened.  Here is what I presented as a target for this part of the cycling pattern, that will return two more times this season.

Tropical Storm Verification & Forecast

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Let us know if you have any questions and go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

 

Gary

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Richard
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Richard

No screenshot
Go look at KS Jones link to the Jan 10 blog graphic.
screenshot is one part of the url n the link.

Bobbie
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Bobbie

Gary did you falsify information? That screenshot from KS Jones shows that you indeed changed dates. wtf?

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

What screenshot???

Richard
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Richard

Mr Pete
Oops
My comment about screenshot was supposed to be a reply to you

Bluetooth
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Bluetooth

Very dry and getting dryer by the day…..

C.C
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C.C

Kurt can get two inches of rain and still say they had nothing, we get it, it’s dry everywhere

Kurt
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Kurt

I got no rain this evening and I’m under 5 inches of rain year to date, I say that I had nothing and neither did the reporting station in st Joseph

Weatherby Tom
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Weatherby Tom

Just got a nice quarter of an inch. Lawn says thanks for the drink! Temp dropped 20 degrees in about 10 minutes!

Kathy
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Kathy

We have been blessed this evening with abundant rain and storms in Excelsior Springs. We have been in a donut hole for weeks, but tonight we got lucky. Dunno what is going on in the atmosphere above us, but I am ecstatic to see such wonderfull rain.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

It’s hitting the subsidence area in the periphery of the Alberto influence. Like Gary said above, Absolutly amazing will never see this again as we got a flow from East by Alberto interacting with a system from the west producing severe thunderstorms out there, and we got sandwiched inbetween them with zilch in some places like Kurt,Gary, and myself can attest. Kurt, how can they keep avoiding you? I saw the other day a huge cell dumped just to your west, and a few times now just to the east. They won’t come over the city, at least some farmers… Read more »

Mary
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Mary

Strangest thing…clouds building to the east and approaching over my house, thunder, dark skies over my house in Shawnee, temperatures drop with nice breeze…then it’s like it hits a wall and retreats back…temperatures climb back up and nothing…

Carl
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Carl

I’m really struggling here….been following the blog for two years now and I’m getting more and more frustrated. All winter long according to the LRC we didn’t receive any moisture because of ridges and the jetstream. Now, the jetstream is further north and we supposedly have some moisture but still nothing and the answer is “it’s exactly the same, yet different”. C’mon man. I know the thought will be that it’s just some old farmer that doesn’t understand, but I believe that seeing is believing and it doesn’t take waves on a computer modle to tell me that it’s going… Read more »

Jackson in Gladstone
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Jackson in Gladstone

1Weather still has posted for this week below-average temps with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s. Is that coming later this week?

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

State line area, from just south of KC to up north is about to get sandwiches smacked, hopefully, by two totally different kinds of storms. Might get kind of chippy tonight. Uhm, whatever that means.

Gary, is there a way we can get a review of last year to this years in terms of what the difference is. We know about the quasi ridge this year but what else was the difference.

weatherjaded
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weatherjaded

Yay! Rain for St Joe. Maybe Rainman can cut back on apocalyptic daily updates.

Kurt
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Kurt

It’s just east of me, bone dry west of I-29, so drought continues

Kurt
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Kurt

Nope no rain here in this part of St Joseph been 2 weeks from today without rain

Kurt
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Kurt

Nope I’ll continue to drive home the drought conditions until it improves nothing else of significance to talk about

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Kurt I think Saint Joe is about to get a drink too.

Kurt
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Kurt

Only parts of the city, mainly the east side, still dry mainly west of the interstate where I am.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I’m getting the miracle rain in Prairie Village. Dumping down so hard I can’t see.

Tdogg
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Tdogg

No way the LRC makes Gary a dime

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

Who cares if it does?

Rod
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Rod

Gary based on the cycling weather pattern when do you expect during September to be the most active time period for tropical development in Florida? We have a week beach vacation booked in St Augustine from Sept 15-22nd. We always go in August or Sept because it’s cheaper & take out Hurricane insurance just in case. Thanks

Brittany
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Brittany

Gary, do you see any relief of this heat anytime soon?

Craig
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Craig

The latest HRRR holds the weakening storms together for a 2:00 am arrival. Fingers crossed for some rain!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=ncus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018052918&fh=17

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Craig, it’s literally collapsing as it reaches Stateline, if it hangs on little longer we can only hope. Maybe metro can score a few tenths if does hold on. It does want to keep storms alive up by St.Joe a little longer, god knows they need a big rain. It appears our best chances will be tomorrow night with secondary MCS, but might be too far south for St.Joe or even the metro to get anything. Let’s hope we get lucky

Craig
Guest
Craig

Two runs in a row, though, and hoping for it to be right.
The state line is not my concern at this point. I need it to rain in western Johnson County.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=ncus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018052919&fh=0

Mason - Basehor
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Mason - Basehor

Nice to see Gary here chatting.

Gary — can you answer for me this one: how does the weather seemingly flip from one cycle to the next?

6-7 weeks ago (one of your cycles), Minneapolis saw a historic 14” snowstorm; then this past weekend they saw 100 degrees.

Here too, we saw a remarkably cold stretch ~45 days ago….but are on our 4th day in the 90s today.

It seems your 1wearher app forecast called for below-average temps for us for this week — logical based on early April, but how are we getting this record warmth?

Richard
Guest
Richard

He probably won’t answer because he can’t explain why. This heat was totally unexpected.

And not answering why the timeframes for the tropical storm graphic are different from the Jan 10 and todays blog.

I understand why. He’s a busy man.
Comments and questions are more for us than him.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Wow, criticize the LRC and get blasted on here……

LYITC41
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LYITC41

Yeah and there’s one that’s worse than anyone else on here about that. You know.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

And if you do criticize something, your post gets deleted. As mine just did.

Richard
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Richard

Deleted ? Or just waiting moderation.
Some words get flagged.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Nope, it did not go into moderation at first. It just got deleted shortly after I first posted it.

Bluetooth
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Bluetooth

Richard, yes, some words are flagged, such as January 10th blog…..

Jackson in Gladstone
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Jackson in Gladstone

How about a conversation about severe weather?!? One cycle ago – mid-April – we had the biggest severe weather outbreak that Kansas has seen this season. The day that Jerard snagged that majestic EF-3 tornado in central Kansas. That day, Gary said when this part of the cycle returns at the end of May, it could really light up this area. See the blog from April 12: “Now, when this pattern returns in 47 days, this is when it should light up over our area due to the late May and early June seasonal difference to the pattern.” This was… Read more »

Tdogg
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Tdogg

How wet is it gonna get tonight? Any chance of a late May twist?

Bluetooth
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Bluetooth

Very little…

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Interesting write-up on Cliff Mass’ blog about rainfall in May in various parts of the country:
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/05/believe-it-or-not-may-is-wettest-month.html

Alex
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Alex

Should we expect tropical storms or hurricanes to hit the Florida panhandle area July 11-14 (cycle 7) and perhaps a large one Aug 23-26 (cycle 8)?

Jon Behle
Guest

Alberto actually influenced the fact that much of Western Missouri did get warm and missed out on the rains that much of Central and Western Kansas had. I think its very important to discuss both and remember that something similar will setup a few times more as we go deeper into the summer months. I think it is amazing that weather2020 did predict an area of tropical interest to look at in late May in that area and it did verify too. Most the naysayers will say in September that there can always be a tropical system around in a… Read more »

LYITC41
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LYITC41

Thing is he didn’t, there was no call made back in Jan. for a tropical system anywhere in late May as claimed today. The cycle, yes, the storm specifically, no.

Richard
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Richard

LYITC41
Go look at yesterdays blog you will see the same graphic !
Gary said it is what he presented to the AMA conference in Austin on Jan 9
So yes a possible tropical storm was predicted fir this time frame to the AMA conference, not here on the blog.

LYITC41
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LYITC41

See my reply above to this exact same post

Richard
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Richard

Ok I just looked at it.
You are correct. The date was changed.
Who knows why the dates are different. Maybe Gary will come here and clarify.

JoeK
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JoeK

The dates were NOT changed, there were multiple graphics shared at the conference, they only look the same because this is the target area for all three storms, this one, mid July and again in September. Make sense?

Richard
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Richard

Joek
Were you at the conference ??
Did Gary tell you personslly that he used multiple graphics ?
I think you have insider information. Lol

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The dates were changed.
comment image

Jackson in Gladstone
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Jackson in Gladstone

whoa

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

To clarify, i think it’s great their forecast verified. Put out a blog and pat yourself on the back, nice work. But blog after blog after blog I get tired of hearing about same froecast, esp when we now have a storm knocking on the doorstep. Some Mets poo pooed the chances last week too, only for my area to get Flooded out with nearly 7″ for the week. So a little more attention to the storm at hand would be nice

Kurt
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Kurt

Yes, of more concern is the very dry weather, sorry drought in our case up in the Northwest Missouri into northern Missouri. I think that Alberto’s circulation is creating too much sinking air and weakening the storm that was parked out to our west. It will lift out Wednesday and the complex of storms will basically fall apart before any significant impact in NE KS and NW Missouri. I just think it’s the pattern we’re in and believe that crop losses, water shortages and deteriorating pastures with drying ponds will be ongoing up here, especially if the models verify with… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Can we move on from the Tropical forecast already? I think this is the 3rd or 4th blog in a row where we talk about this very weak, barely tropical system Alberto. There are people here desperate for a rain, how about discussing that a little more since we have a case now where might get MCS from KS or we might not…… that’s the big story now. How about the fact areas of western and central KS got 4-6″ or rain over the weekend, basically crushing the drought in many areas. Our immediate storm we should be talking about… Read more »

Dan M.
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Dan M.

Great points Hume. I’m not sure why Gary is only focusing on Alberto and the drought in NE Kansas and NW Missouri, when the amount of rain that has fallen in Central & Western KS is amazing. Even Central/West Central Nebraska has had large amounts of rain. These areas were in a severe drought and it is so good to see those areas finally get their rain. More discussion on what is going on out there and how that will impact our weather locally would be beneficial. For some reason that is not being discussed. Glad they got the forecast… Read more »

Richard
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Richard

Que Heat Miser to come here and say you complain too much. Of course he won’t because he sets his sights on MY comments. Nobody elses So, Heat, I agree with Hume. Heard enough about Alberto from Gary. Why hasn’t he talked about WHERE THIS HEAT came from ! The whole month being above normal, the Memorial weekend being our hottest on record. Things like that. Our weather, Will Gary make a July 4th forecast ? Will he even make a summer forecast ? I think he focusses a lot on what has happened here, or elsewhere (Amarillo keeps getting… Read more »

JoeK
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JoeK

This is a global weather blog

Dan M.
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Dan M.

Yes – but rarely is world weather discussed. However, the KC area is always discussed. I would like to see more weather discussion on areas around the world and how it plays into our weather locally. Just something I would like to understand better.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Therefore we need to go look at other blogs for local ?
Or just wait for on air kshb forecast.

I get it. Gary is presenting, promoting, the lrc globally. Its the golden egg for his retirement.
And no doubt he is well on his way with it.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Here’s a startling image showing total rainfall through June 14th. It clearly shows the pattern of where storms/precipitation has targeted in the LRC. Look at the two low QPF zones in our area: southwest Kansas and the Kansas City donut hole.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc&rh=2018052906&fh=384&r=conus&dpdt=

Nate
Guest
Nate

Guess we’ll have to watch the weather guys, the bravest of the brave, (in their minds) standing out in a hurricane quite a bit this summer…it’s so predictable and annoying.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Gary, I think I answered my own question. In looking at the temperatures for January 2018, and January 8th equal to today as start of LRC, it would appear we can enjoy slightly cooler temps for about 10 days before it warms back up. If anyone is interested in looking up temp/precip for Kansas City on a calendar here is a good site.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMKC/2018/1/24/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Funny how that tropical storm graphic you posted on Jan.10 gives a date of on or around Sept. 1 and todays graphic (the exact same one apparently) says “137 day forecast to verify May 26-30, Tropical Storm possible”. You did mention that this same pattern would cycle through in late May, mid July, and late Aug-early Sept. Ok fine, but no mention was made at all in January of a TROPICAL SYSTEM anywhere in late May. Your first mention of anything tropical is in mid July. Claiming you forecast a tropical storm for late May back in January is, well,… Read more »

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

It verified because it was the spot he was expecting tropical activity. Did it surprise him that it happened this early? Maybe, but just because it happened super early doesn’t take away from the LRC’s validity. It confirms it, if anything.l

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

We’ll agree to disagree, he specifically said ALBERTO was forecast 137 days ago, back in Jan. He may have forecast the cycle, but not the storm, no mention of a tropical system in late May at all. Don’t say you did when you didn’t, that’s all I’m saying.

Richard
Guest
Richard

LYITC41
Go look at yesterdays blog you will see the same graphic !
Gary said it is what he presented to the AMA conference in Austin on Jan 9
So yes a possible tropical storm was predicted fir this time frame to the AMA conference, not here on the blog.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Sorry Richard, the original graphic (same as today and yesterday) presented at the AMA conf. said “within a few days of September 1, 2018”, not late May 2018. He changed the date and used the same graphic. Go back to the Jan. 10 blog.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

LYITC41,

He didn’t change the date and use the same graphic. Send Gary a private message asking for an explanation rather than throwing out unsupported garbage on the blog. The above graphic was issued at the conference with 100’s of witnesses as well as numerous other forecasts. Think about what weather2020 is and apply logic. Just because every single forecast isn’t shared on a “free blog” does not mean it wasn’t forecasted.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Whatever you say JoeK. You, of course, are always right but I wondered where you were at. Took you longer to get here than I would have expected, but glad you’ve ridden in and saved the day.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Sarcasm aside, ask yourself this logical question, why would Gary lie or change a graphic that he presented to a major conference of his peers and industry individuals who could easily call him out on it????? Makes no sense. It would take an absolute fool to set himself up for humiliation like that. A little common sense folks.

Richard
Guest
Richard

JoeK I went to the Jan 10 blog. (There are 2 for that date) The tropical storm dates on the graphic are different than what is on there yesterday and today. That blog title even says “A 200 + day forecast for a hurricane in the gulf ” Which, from Jan 10, would take it to July 29 and beyond Maybe Gary can clarify on here why the graphic yesterday/today depict a different timeframe from the graphic he put out on Jan 10. But we don’t want to talk about Alberto anymore, or the fact that it was or was… Read more »

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

So was this not predicted then? Hmm

TDogg
Guest
TDogg

Somebody’s got some splainin to do…I see some shadiness going on.

Gary H
Guest
Gary H

Gary, again, I have to pay big compliments to you and your team for projecting Subtropical Storm Alberto 137 days in advance. I now live in the Auburn, AL area and can appreciate your advanced warning. The storm, for Auburn, was not bad at all – a little wind and some rain. I measured about 0.8″ yesterday after the first arm of the storm passed through. I will make a final measurement after today’s rain passes, but I anticipate only about 1.5″ overall. Further west near Montgomery, they will record quite a bit more QPF. It will certainly drive away… Read more »

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Good Morning Gary. Wow, those quick hitting cells yesterday evening were interesting to watch. They moved east to west. We had a preety good downpour here in south PV under one of the cells. It fell apart as it went over downtown Overland Park – only light sprinkles. We usually have storms/rain come from the west, but winds were from the east this time. Quick question, its supposed to cool down next weekend. Given the LRC, how long can we expect to have these more seasonal temps before it warms back up? This stretch of really hot weather seems to… Read more »

jsquibble
Guest
jsquibble

what is AMA?

jsquibble
Guest
jsquibble

nevermind i figured it out

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I don’t understand the numbers you’re listing. What is the first number, and what is the second number?

KCI (2.19″ & 3.6″)

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Oh wait, are they ALL snow? Nevermind.