Another Warm Spring Day: Any Thunderstorms?

/Another Warm Spring Day: Any Thunderstorms?

Another Warm Spring Day: Any Thunderstorms?

Good morning,

I will get to KC’s chance of thunderstorms in a minute, but let’s start with the developments in the tropics.  A tropical system is forming along the coastal region of the south Yucatan Peninsula today. This will likely become the first Tropical Depression of the season, and then Tropical Storm Alberto will likely form Friday or Saturday as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.  This system was forecast by Weather2020 to develop near the end of May back in January when I spoke at the big AMS conference in Austin, TX.  Using the LRC, this prediction was made and it is verifying, like the majority of the predictions made this year.  So, where will this system track? Is the water warm enough to support significant intensification? The answer to the first question was answered months ago. It will track to between New Orleans and the west coast of Florida.

NHC Day 5 Day Potential Alberto

This 5-day forecast from the NHC was forecast by Weather2020 in January. And, the thunderstorms are really growing this morning.  This system will likely form into a named storm by the weekend.

Alberto_Prestorm_Sat May 24

Look closely at this satellite picture, and you can see some disturbances over Kansas and Missouri.  There will be a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening near KC, with the better chance arriving on Friday.  The trend on the models is for Fridays chance of thunderstorms to be below 50%.  Let’s see how the models come in today.  The rest of the weekend looks great with low chances of rain Saturday through Memorial Day.

Have a great day, and go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

2018-05-25T07:55:45+00:00May 24th, 2018|General|28 Comments

28 Comments

  1. Snow Miser May 24, 2018 at 10:06 am - Reply

    In my fantasy, that tropical storm would veer toward the western part of the cone on the map, and the remnants of it would give KC some rain.

    • Brittany May 24, 2018 at 12:26 pm - Reply

      And maybe some relief from the heat? Ha! I don’t know how I’m gonna survive the summer LOL.

  2. Michael Garner May 24, 2018 at 10:34 am - Reply

    So I’m assuming when this warm part of May comes back around in the middle of June to beginning of July we can expect a heat wave? Jet stream by then will be way up north, like it is now? What kind of summer do you think we will have Gary? Heat waves total, meaning 2 or 3 different heat waves? Or will we have a total of 5 plus days at 100 plus? Maybe just maybe if we finally have a hot summer, cause I don’t really think the last 2 have been as hot as what it can be here, but anyways maybe a hot summer breaks the ice for a snowy winter!!

  3. LYITC41 May 24, 2018 at 11:01 am - Reply

    An incredible claim was made here yesterday, a claim that stated, “the weather 2020 forecast from 50 to 200 days, by using the “LRC”
    is better than the ones issued 5 days out from NHC or SPC”. After I stopped laughing I realized this couldn’t go unchallenged. NOBODY’S forecast from 50 to 200 days out is going to be more accurate than ANYBODY’S 5 day forecast. It’s just simply not so. I hope he was trying to convey something else and just got a little mixed up. I know there’s a lot of absolute believers in this theory and I too believe the theory has promise with a lot of work and more research but that statement simply just is not true and if you know anything about meteorology (as most of you do) you know that too.

  4. Bill May 24, 2018 at 11:07 am - Reply

    I really want to be a believer, but I’m a lawyer so I question everything. I read this blog every morning and understand it’s for the lay people but I wish you could screenshot or paste comments from the past.

    I have no recollection of you ever saying we were in for an early tropical season until a few days ago.

    • JoeK May 24, 2018 at 11:17 am - Reply

      Bill,

      Go to the home page of this blog, to the left of the screen is the archives tab, click on January 2018 and go to January 10th. Read and let me know your thoughts. Very AMAZING stuff as it was in fact forecasted

      • LYITC41 May 24, 2018 at 11:29 am - Reply

        JoeK,
        Went back and read that Jan. 10th blog, maybe I’m missing something, but the earliest he was looking for anything tropical was 7-16. I’ve said it before: I’ll be impressed if he gets a hurricane in the GOM sometime in early Sept.

        • JoeK May 24, 2018 at 11:37 am - Reply

          LYITC41

          Yes, but in his forecast he states a system will form the end of May then mid July and again around September 1. Now, the system is forming the end of May. It should be a weak tropical system and mid July, it will be much stronger. if you are not impressed by that, you are a difficult person to impress :D.

          • Bill May 24, 2018 at 11:54 am - Reply

            I did go back and that is not what the blog says. The blog says these are the lengths of the cycles. No where does it say a tropical system would form in May. He said the earliest is July and then September.

            I give him credit where credit is due, but I just can’t give him credit prior to this week for this forecast.

            • JoeK May 24, 2018 at 12:02 pm - Reply

              Bill,

              In your above post you stated you didn’t recall where Gary had talked about an early start to the tropical season and in the Jan 10th post, he talks about that very thing…..Does this not refute your original post? if not, then I object counselor 😀 And for the record, he does in fact talk about a system forming at the end of May, tropical or not, it is there and when it impacts the area the LRC identified, will that impress?

      • Brian May 24, 2018 at 11:35 am - Reply

        How’d the winter forecast using the LRC work out? How about above average rainfall and below average temps for May work out?

        You are great supporter of the LRC and I appreciate the fact that you have spent time researching it and understanding it….but how do you defend it when it misses? Don’t give me the standard line of variations in the pattern or its there when it isn’t.

        Also, have you seen a forecast for Memorial Day? I mean, not one made today, but maybe last week or last month? I didn’t see one, because there wasn’t one. You gave one, but not Gary. What about 4th of July or Royals opening day or any major sporting event? There wasn’t any prediction made regarding those, either.

        Again, I appreciate your insight, but I also believe there is a time for critical analysis too. I will give him credit for the tropical storm system too…but I will also give the GFS and NHC credit too…because they has been on this possible system ten days ago…and they never wavered. Maybe on track and maybe on intensity, but never on the fact it was consistently showing up on the weather models and needed to be watched.

        • JoeK May 24, 2018 at 11:57 am - Reply

          Brian,

          Good points and I will attempt to address each one. Yes, I am now a believer in the LRC and was not at first, but I spent time studying and using it and eventually came to realize the genius behind it. As for what you refer to as missed forecasts, have they all been 100% accurate? No, but Gary has never claimed them to be. Interpreting the LRC and what it is trying to tell us is the complicated piece of the puzzle and as Gary has stated many times, he continues to learn and adjust. We all do this in every aspect of our lives as well as our careers, no matter how long we have done something, we still learn

          Now, the winter forecast, well, it was accurate from my prospective. Of the three components of his forecast, 2 of the 3 were spot on. Below average temps, dry and below normal precip. and of course, he was off on total snow. For the record ( and I told Gary this) predicting an amount of snow is silly as it is extremely difficult due to the dynamics of winter weather and is only done to please the viewers. Think about it. A half inch of rain can produce 5 inches of snow or 15 inches of snow. So in close, how was the inter forecast off? Gary predicted colder than average temps which verified and he forecasted dry or below average precipitation which verified. The only component of the forecast that was off was total snowfall. 2 out of 3 is pretty darn good

          Now, I am critical when there are misses, but I do it by e-mailing Gary rather than choosing to publicly bash him as there is always a reason and I want to understand and learn from it. Hopefully, that makes sense.

          And regarding the seasonal differences, Brian, it is the weather and not every aspect of it can be predicted with absolute precision, not even Gary will claim that. Seasonal difference can and do happen. I cannot explain the mechanisms behind them as I am not a meteorologist, but maybe Gary can do a blog that defines seasonal differences and how he incorporates them into his logic.

          Yes, the GFS started showing this 10+ days ago however, the LRC had it in its cross hairs months ago, beginning back in the first cycle and has been indicated in the archives, with far more accuracy than the models have had at 10+ days out.

          I also appreciate the respectful questions and opportunity to debate. it is refreshing to answer a post from a blogger such as yourself rather than the trolls that are her to simply mock and make fun. I will challenge you to look more closely as I did and reach out to Gary privately if necessary for help understanding and seeing the LRC .

  5. Troy Newman May 24, 2018 at 11:30 am - Reply

    You can see the LRC but using it to forecast day to day weather is still a challenge it seems. Just like right now: is this drought going to intensify and create big problems this summer or will it start raining? Can anyone confidently tell me that.

    Its hard for me to look at the LRC and really find much hope as many areas have not seen any significant rain since last summer. I have not had a single day where I totaled 1 inch of rain this entire LRC. KC downtown airport is 7″ below normal this year so far this year just like it is here. There are many spots from KS through Western IL that are experiencing really dry soil conditions. It looks to me like you have to forecast heat and drought if you are going to use the LRC this summer. Some will get lucky and probably hit a few storms but many others may not.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE May 24, 2018 at 12:08 pm - Reply

      I’m still trying to come to terms with how I got 7 inches of rain in October when this other clrc was born yet not one time is that been recreated in any other cycle granted the winter months are dry but now that we’ve had a moisture Supply return the storm simply are not functional like they were and October. different pattern within the pattern

      • Troy Newman May 24, 2018 at 12:39 pm - Reply

        For whatever reason the systems came on across that time of year. Now every storm that comes into the West runs into that invisible ridge that stops them and they deflect North or just fizzle out. This May pattern looks more like Nov and early Dec.

  6. Dustin TheWind May 24, 2018 at 11:30 am - Reply

    April 15, 2018 saw a high of 31 degrees in Kansas City. According to the LRC, we should be seeing another unseasonably chilly day ~47 days later around June 2nd. Can we expect some relief next weekend?

    • Brittany May 24, 2018 at 12:28 pm - Reply

      Dustin, that would be amazing! If it’s gonna be like this all summer, ugh! I’m not ready for it.

    • Anonymous May 24, 2018 at 12:34 pm - Reply

      I may be way off but this is what I see. When we were in winter and arctic air was available this pattern pulled it down on several occasions. When there isn’t much cold air available this pattern comes off as hot. We had that heat in Oct, Nov, and the first 3 weeks of Dec. It appears that the seasonal lack of arctic air has us back to the hot weather like we saw in November and early Dec. If you look at some of the upper air patterns in Nov and then again in mid winter you don’t see much difference but you do see a huge difference in temperature. I don’t know if that is correct but that is how it looks to me.

      • Dustin TheWind May 24, 2018 at 12:51 pm - Reply

        So probably it is just High Pressure?

  7. Tdogg May 24, 2018 at 11:59 am - Reply

    I am a believer in a late May snowstorm 😉

  8. Tim May 24, 2018 at 12:52 pm - Reply

    While I believe in many aspects of the LRC– although towards the tropics–I still believe in almost every case where it “lines up” with the LRC is sheer coincidence. Gary and I had an exchange about this last year. The simple fact that tropical storms form along the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), originating as far as a storm system coming off the Sahara Desert in Africa (cape verde season)– is literally comparing apple to oranges. In May IF a storm forms– the only semi-climatological spots are near the GOM and just off the SE US coast. Aside from being “named” there are always systems (invests) tracking through climatological areas at any given point during the tropical season. The storms are either there– or they are not. If they are not, just like anything else that doesnt line up with the LRC– it’ll just get ignored on this blog.

    • Tim May 24, 2018 at 1:03 pm - Reply

      Fyi..assuming this gets a name.. this would be 4th season in a row of 1st named tropical system before June…

  9. Weatherby Tom May 24, 2018 at 2:30 pm - Reply

    any chance those storms reach the KC metro later? looks like Lawrence just might get some of it soon

  10. Anonymous May 24, 2018 at 2:34 pm - Reply

    It does look like a little disturbance is coming our way out of the southwest…..I am thinking our chance of rain at this point looks pretty good for later this evening

  11. Jason May 24, 2018 at 3:12 pm - Reply

    Absolutely POURING righ now in Lawrence

  12. KCMatt May 24, 2018 at 3:51 pm - Reply

    Very heavy rain in Tonganoxie… puddling in the garden !!!

  13. Mattinleavenworth May 24, 2018 at 4:05 pm - Reply

    Oh wow there are some serious storm clouds getting close to us up here. Looks like it’s going to get busy soon

  14. Rockdoc May 24, 2018 at 4:06 pm - Reply

    12Z GFS indicates that the tropical storm will make landfall Monday morning. Current projected path is initially towards Mobile Bay before hooking to the west and into Mississippi, most likely near Gulfport. Highest winds are ~51 kt which is ~58 mph, on the SE quadrant. Unfortunately, the low pressure zone falls apart in Louisiana and rain associated with the system does not make it up into Missouri. Here’s a look at it as it begins to “hook” slightly west. Next update from Hurricane Center is at 8 pm EDT. The second link is to the NOAA Hurricane Center.

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2018052412&fh=90&r=us_se&dpdt=

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

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