I will get to KC’s chance of thunderstorms in a minute, but let’s start with the developments in the tropics. A tropical system is forming along the coastal region of the south Yucatan Peninsula today. This will likely become the first Tropical Depression of the season, and then Tropical Storm Alberto will likely form Friday or Saturday as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. This system was forecast by Weather2020 to develop near the end of May back in January when I spoke at the big AMS conference in Austin, TX. Using the LRC, this prediction was made and it is verifying, like the majority of the predictions made this year. So, where will this system track? Is the water warm enough to support significant intensification? The answer to the first question was answered months ago. It will track to between New Orleans and the west coast of Florida.
This 5-day forecast from the NHC was forecast by Weather2020 in January. And, the thunderstorms are really growing this morning. This system will likely form into a named storm by the weekend.
Look closely at this satellite picture, and you can see some disturbances over Kansas and Missouri. There will be a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening near KC, with the better chance arriving on Friday. The trend on the models is for Fridays chance of thunderstorms to be below 50%. Let’s see how the models come in today. The rest of the weekend looks great with low chances of rain Saturday through Memorial Day.
Have a great day, and go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.