The Tropics May Be Acting Up Early

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is now fairly calm across the United States.  For storm chasers this has been about as quiet of a year that I can remember, but it isn’t over yet. The pattern continues to cycle as described by the LRC and we are expecting two more active stretches of days before summer settles in. These are due in late this month into the first few days of June, and then around mid-June. The jet stream will continue to weaken and eventually summer will take over ending traditional tornado season.

While the weather pattern has calmed down, it is beginning to show signs of developing a tropical storm before the beginning of traditional hurricane season on June 1.  One part of the cycling pattern that we are forecasting to develop tropical activity is arriving in this next week, and right on schedule there is a system to monitor closely.

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Thunderstorms were beginning to get a bit more organized over the Caribbean Sea.  This has been a target area for development and a track towards the north since October by applying the LRC.  The most likely track will be north making landfall between New Orleans and Tampa Florida.  Let’s see how this develops.  The Weather2020 forecast from 50 to 200 days before, by using the LRC, is better than the ones issued five days out from NHC or the SPC.  This is yet another example.  Hurricane season is likely about to emerge this week.

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For Kansas City, we have another beautiful late spring day. We are now just four weeks from the first day of summer.  It has been a warm month of May, after a cold April.  These above average temperatures are continuing for a while. There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday into Saturday, with the best chance expected around Friday morning.  There may be a complex of thunderstorms moving our way from the northwest Thursday night. Let’s see how this sets up tomorrow.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing with us on the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation and we can discuss the latest model trends on this potential early tropical storm. It would be named Alberto.

Gary

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Kurt
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Kurt

It already is, unless you buy into MowerMike’s assessment. I find him losing credibility when he tries to access the situation in and around St Joseph. It’s getting bad up here and not sure how the farmers will fare with corn and beans. At least my pasture and the one next door looks good.

Just can’t see this not getting worse, we’re only at 4.06 year to date and average to date is now almost 11.5 inches. Not sure what the drought monitor sees, but I think it’s underplaying the severity of the drought up here

JoeK
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JoeK

Kurt,

With respect, Mike’s assessment is factually accurate so not sure how his credibility can be in question. It is a simple matter of perception and one that you and he look at through different perspectives. At any rate, although you will remain dry, I still don’t see a situation where you experience a catastrophic drought situation or a long term event. Of course, I could be interpreting the LRC wrong as I am still learning

Lary Gezak
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Lary Gezak

The window of exciting weather is closing quickly. Soon it’ll be too hot and the jet stream will be too weak for anything to get going. We’re entering the time where pop-up thunderstorms or cumulus clouds happen almost daily.

Brittany
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Brittany

They were everywhere yesterday. Cumulus clouds, I mean.

Three7s
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Three7s

They won’t be happening under this quasi-ridge. It’s gonna be hot, it’s gonna be dry, and it’s gonna last all summer long.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

I just checked Weather Underground’s ten day forecast and the high temperatures for last eight days of that ten are in the 90s with an average of 94.5°, with only 0.36″ of rain in that same ten days. That’s abnormally hot & dry. Our normal high over those ten days is only 78°. This area is already experiencing a moderate hydrologic drought, and the wet weather streams that are normally flowing at this time of year are dry. Fortunately our three dependable springs (that have never gone dry) are filling a series of pools along a 3/4 mile stretch of… Read more »

Nick
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Nick

I think one thing that would add to the experience is if it would be possible to one day add a photo upload feature so people could upload pics of current weather conditions and things that are of weather interest from day to day. but as it stands now, this is still a great place and I apreciate getting so many blogs so often by Gary and others. 🙂 Today hit 92F here in St. Joe “Muly” continues

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

While we’re at it, can we get a down arrow on here? Just got home from STL. Hooped it up at Busch Stadium the last two days. It was really warm today.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I’ve seen other blogs like this, and NONE of them have down arrows, only up arrows. I think it might be a built-in feature of the software (made by the software company) that site administrators can do nothing about.

Tdogg
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Tdogg

Jesus Richard get a life

rred95
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rred95

Jesus talk about the pot calling the kettle black. lol

Richard
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Richard

Ok embarrassing why they don’t work here ?!?
will crawl back to my hole now. My fishing hole ! Sorry bloggers

Richard
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Richard
Richard
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Richard

Working now !

Episode 2:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmYaXG

Richard
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Richard

Well, looks like my efforts were for nothing ! Sorry !
Links are not working ! What a waste of blog space. Sorry everyone

Richard
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Richard

Trying again with one link at a time
Joplin tornado chronicle series of 5 videos put out by a Joplin resident who had recently moved there from Seattle.
First one is taken from his home, which sustained little to no damage. Little did he know what he would find when he got in his car.
The other 4 are his drive following the path of destruction.

Episode 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX3Dlu

Richard
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Richard
Richard
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Richard
Richard
Guest
Richard
Richard
Guest
Richard
Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Any further news on updating and improving the blog?

Richard
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Richard

Gary, or Bob
Comment in moderation
I see now why Rockdoc gave up on posting comments with links.
Frustrating

Richard
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Richard

I just now went back and found the 5 youtube videos from the guy who had just moved there from Seattle. Here is his comment, and links to his 5. Be prepared. Takes time to watch all 5, but this guy and a friend documented a lot. “2 weeks ago I moved from Seattle, WA to Joplin, MO. I was one of the many blessed people to survive the tornado that struck Joplin on 5/22/11. As soon as I saw hail dropping, I grabbed my camera. I had no idea that I was about to capture the next 24 hours… Read more »

Richard
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Richard

I just now went back and found the 5 youtube videos from the guy who had just moved there from Seattle. Here is his comment, and links to his 5. Be prepared. Takes time to watch all 5, but this guy and a friend documented a lot. “2 weeks ago I moved from Seattle, WA to Joplin, MO. I was one of the many blessed people to survive the tornado that struck Joplin on 5/22/11. As soon as I saw hail dropping, I grabbed my camera. I had no idea that I was about to capture the next 24 hours… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

I watched the Joplin tornado footage Richard posted yesterday , what a brutal tornado that was. They need a new category for that type of tornado, something that gets public’s attention when conditions are favorable for such killer storms. People caught out in didn’t have a chance, truly amazing footage and needs to be replayed every anniversary as a reminder why we watch severe storms so closely.

Richard
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Richard

I got caught up in it. Stayed up until 11 pm watching video after video of the Joplin monster. On that youtube link, off to the right, there is a ton of live footage of the Joplin tornado. Terrifying. I could newer be a storm chaser. But most of those videos are every day folks who posted. In particular there is about 5 from a couple of guys, who had just moved to the area, their first footage was from their house, just on the edge of the path, which did not sustain damage, but debris was in yard, so… Read more »

Richard
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Richard

Thanks Gary
I have family going to Houston this weekend into next week.
Hope the tropical storm will not affect that area