The Tropics May Be Acting Up Early

/The Tropics May Be Acting Up Early

The Tropics May Be Acting Up Early

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is now fairly calm across the United States.  For storm chasers this has been about as quiet of a year that I can remember, but it isn’t over yet. The pattern continues to cycle as described by the LRC and we are expecting two more active stretches of days before summer settles in. These are due in late this month into the first few days of June, and then around mid-June. The jet stream will continue to weaken and eventually summer will take over ending traditional tornado season.

While the weather pattern has calmed down, it is beginning to show signs of developing a tropical storm before the beginning of traditional hurricane season on June 1.  One part of the cycling pattern that we are forecasting to develop tropical activity is arriving in this next week, and right on schedule there is a system to monitor closely.

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Thunderstorms were beginning to get a bit more organized over the Caribbean Sea.  This has been a target area for development and a track towards the north since October by applying the LRC.  The most likely track will be north making landfall between New Orleans and Tampa Florida.  Let’s see how this develops.  The Weather2020 forecast from 50 to 200 days before, by using the LRC, is better than the ones issued five days out from NHC or the SPC.  This is yet another example.  Hurricane season is likely about to emerge this week.

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For Kansas City, we have another beautiful late spring day. We are now just four weeks from the first day of summer.  It has been a warm month of May, after a cold April.  These above average temperatures are continuing for a while. There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday into Saturday, with the best chance expected around Friday morning.  There may be a complex of thunderstorms moving our way from the northwest Thursday night. Let’s see how this sets up tomorrow.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing with us on the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation and we can discuss the latest model trends on this potential early tropical storm. It would be named Alberto.

Gary

2018-05-24T21:02:27+00:00 May 23rd, 2018|General|30 Comments

30 Comments

  1. Richard May 23, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

    Thanks Gary
    I have family going to Houston this weekend into next week.
    Hope the tropical storm will not affect that area

  2. REAL HUMEDUDE May 23, 2018 at 9:47 am - Reply

    I watched the Joplin tornado footage Richard posted yesterday , what a brutal tornado that was. They need a new category for that type of tornado, something that gets public’s attention when conditions are favorable for such killer storms. People caught out in didn’t have a chance, truly amazing footage and needs to be replayed every anniversary as a reminder why we watch severe storms so closely.

    • Richard May 23, 2018 at 10:11 am - Reply

      I got caught up in it. Stayed up until 11 pm watching video after video of the Joplin monster.
      On that youtube link, off to the right, there is a ton of live footage of the Joplin tornado.
      Terrifying. I could newer be a storm chaser.
      But most of those videos are every day folks who posted.
      In particular there is about 5 from a couple of guys, who had just moved to the area, their first footage was from their house, just on the edge of the path, which did not sustain damage, but debris was in yard, so they immediately set out to drive, following the path into town. They had no idea that they had barely missed being blown away in their part of town. And the closer they got, the more damage they saw until they got into the heart, thick, of it. Total destruction. People wandering around at the Walmart parking lot, dazed people wandering around in totally destroyed neighborhoods. The guys stopped several times to ask if anyone needed a ride or help.
      And there are a lot of other videos from every day people.

    • Gary May 23, 2018 at 10:12 am - Reply

      Humedude, Richard,

      Here is the link again: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfdK6H9d6J0&index=4&list=PLm8cfElEZ1ic8YWEE8_zfjg0aeTdIe8l-&app=desktop
      Jeff is a friend of mine, and I have known him for 30 years. I just watched that video for the first time, and my goodness. I have lead a sheltered life and not experienced such tragedy. This was a very bad day 7 years ago. Jeff got awfully close to that tornado, and then his experiencing the fatalities had to have been just horrific.

      Gary

      • Richard May 23, 2018 at 10:24 am - Reply

        Gary
        I have in moderation. Can you please approve it….hate to keep trying

        • Richard May 23, 2018 at 10:29 am - Reply

          Gary, or moderator can you unflag my comment. It has links to tornado chronicle series that a Joplin resident put on youtube. Maybe the 5 links are holding me up ?

  3. Richard May 23, 2018 at 10:23 am - Reply

    I just now went back and found the 5 youtube videos from the guy who had just moved there from Seattle.
    Here is his comment, and links to his 5. Be prepared. Takes time to watch all 5, but this guy and a friend documented a lot.

    “2 weeks ago I moved from Seattle, WA to Joplin, MO. I was one of the many blessed people to survive the tornado that struck Joplin on 5/22/11.
    As soon as I saw hail dropping, I grabbed my camera. I had no idea that I was about to capture the next 24 hours of the United States’s deadliest tornado in over 60 years.”

    The Joplin Tornado Chronicles is composed of 5 individual episodes detailing my experience before, during and the 2 hours that followed after the tornado touched down. I am sharing it so that Jopln and it’s people will always be remembered for overcoming this horrific disaster.

    The Joplin Tornado Chronicles Series:

    Episode 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX3Dlu
    Episode 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmYaXG
    Episode 3 (walmart): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNluEF
    Episode 4: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2wryQ
    Episode 5: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnMVgy

  4. Richard May 23, 2018 at 10:36 am - Reply

    I just now went back and found the 5 youtube videos from the guy who had just moved there from Seattle.
    Here is his comment, and links to his 5. Be prepared. Takes time to watch all 5, but this guy and a friend documented a lot.

    “2 weeks ago I moved from Seattle, WA to Joplin, MO. I was one of the many blessed people to survive the tornado that struck Joplin on 5/22/11.
    As soon as I saw hail dropping, I grabbed my camera. I had no idea that I was about to capture the next 24 hours of the United States’s deadliest tornado in over 60 years.”

    The Joplin Tornado Chronicles is composed of 5 individual episodes detailing my experience before, during and the 2 hours that followed after the tornado touched down. I am sharing it so that Jopln and it’s people will always be remembered for overcoming this horrific disaster.

    The Joplin Tornado Chronicles Series:
    Episode 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX3Dlu
    Episode 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmYaXG
    Episode 3 (walmart): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNluEF
    Episode 4: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2wryQ
    Episode 5: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnMVgy

  5. Richard May 23, 2018 at 10:37 am - Reply

    Gary, or Bob
    Comment in moderation
    I see now why Rockdoc gave up on posting comments with links.
    Frustrating

  6. Stl78(winon,mn) May 23, 2018 at 12:33 pm - Reply

    Any further news on updating and improving the blog?

  7. Richard May 23, 2018 at 1:44 pm - Reply

    Trying again with one link at a time
    Joplin tornado chronicle series of 5 videos put out by a Joplin resident who had recently moved there from Seattle.
    First one is taken from his home, which sustained little to no damage. Little did he know what he would find when he got in his car.
    The other 4 are his drive following the path of destruction.

    Episode 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX3Dlu

  8. Richard May 23, 2018 at 1:48 pm - Reply

    Well, looks like my efforts were for nothing ! Sorry !
    Links are not working ! What a waste of blog space. Sorry everyone

  9. Richard May 23, 2018 at 1:52 pm - Reply
  10. Richard May 23, 2018 at 1:59 pm - Reply

    Ok embarrassing why they don’t work here ?!?
    will crawl back to my hole now. My fishing hole ! Sorry bloggers

  11. Tdogg May 23, 2018 at 5:00 pm - Reply

    Jesus Richard get a life

    • rred95 May 23, 2018 at 5:21 pm - Reply

      Jesus talk about the pot calling the kettle black. lol

  12. Mr. Pete May 23, 2018 at 7:00 pm - Reply

    While we’re at it, can we get a down arrow on here? Just got home from STL. Hooped it up at Busch Stadium the last two days. It was really warm today.

    • Snow Miser May 23, 2018 at 8:51 pm - Reply

      I’ve seen other blogs like this, and NONE of them have down arrows, only up arrows. I think it might be a built-in feature of the software (made by the software company) that site administrators can do nothing about.

  13. Nick May 23, 2018 at 9:51 pm - Reply

    I think one thing that would add to the experience is if it would be possible to one day add a photo upload feature so people could upload pics of current weather conditions and things that are of weather interest from day to day. but as it stands now, this is still a great place and I apreciate getting so many blogs so often by Gary and others. 🙂 Today hit 92F here in St. Joe “Muly” continues

  14. KS Jones May 23, 2018 at 10:08 pm - Reply

    I just checked Weather Underground’s ten day forecast and the high temperatures for last eight days of that ten are in the 90s with an average of 94.5°, with only 0.36″ of rain in that same ten days. That’s abnormally hot & dry. Our normal high over those ten days is only 78°. This area is already experiencing a moderate hydrologic drought, and the wet weather streams that are normally flowing at this time of year are dry. Fortunately our three dependable springs (that have never gone dry) are filling a series of pools along a 3/4 mile stretch of stream, which originates and ends in our pasture where it soaks away in deep soil at a lower elevation.

  15. Lary Gezak May 24, 2018 at 8:56 am - Reply

    The window of exciting weather is closing quickly. Soon it’ll be too hot and the jet stream will be too weak for anything to get going. We’re entering the time where pop-up thunderstorms or cumulus clouds happen almost daily.

    • Brittany May 24, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

      They were everywhere yesterday. Cumulus clouds, I mean.

    • Three7s May 24, 2018 at 9:11 am - Reply

      They won’t be happening under this quasi-ridge. It’s gonna be hot, it’s gonna be dry, and it’s gonna last all summer long.

  16. Kurt May 24, 2018 at 9:20 am - Reply

    It already is, unless you buy into MowerMike’s assessment. I find him losing credibility when he tries to access the situation in and around St Joseph. It’s getting bad up here and not sure how the farmers will fare with corn and beans. At least my pasture and the one next door looks good.

    Just can’t see this not getting worse, we’re only at 4.06 year to date and average to date is now almost 11.5 inches. Not sure what the drought monitor sees, but I think it’s underplaying the severity of the drought up here

    • JoeK May 24, 2018 at 9:42 am - Reply

      Kurt,

      With respect, Mike’s assessment is factually accurate so not sure how his credibility can be in question. It is a simple matter of perception and one that you and he look at through different perspectives. At any rate, although you will remain dry, I still don’t see a situation where you experience a catastrophic drought situation or a long term event. Of course, I could be interpreting the LRC wrong as I am still learning

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