Hurricane Season Will Be Active With Multiple United States Landfalls

/Hurricane Season Will Be Active With Multiple United States Landfalls

Hurricane Season Will Be Active With Multiple United States Landfalls

Good morning bloggers,

Weather2020 has completed a 17-year analysis of hurricane seasons and this provides the confidence to make accurate weather forecasts for the prediction of tropical storms and hurricanes.  This is going to be a very active year around the United States and we already know the likely tracks of many potential tropical storms of which a few will strengthen into hurricanes.  There is a hot spot as I will show below. Here is the press release going out. Go to Facebook or Twitter and share it with your friends to help spread this important information:  Press Release

The hot spot for this season, issued in December, is targeting this area:

Hot spot

In January, I spoke at the AMS conference in Austin, TX showing the likely track of one of the signature tropical systems that is likely going to form in each LRC cycle, but the strongest will be likely in late August or early September. There are many others that we have identified as well, and we are forecasting at least seven named storms to affect the United States with four hurricanes and potentially two major hurricanes making landfall most likely in this hot spot.  The tropical waters are still a bit too cool to support the development of any significant tropical activity,  but this will change dramatically in the next two to three weeks as water temperatures rise.  Water temperatures really need to be 80 degrees or higher and they are just getting to that level right now.  There is a tropical system right in the middle of the hot spot right now, and when this part of the pattern cycles back through in 47 and 94 days, then it will produce a good chance of a tropical storm or hurricane.  We have been targeting the end of May for a different system to track near or west of Florida. And, this is the one I presented to my peers in May to be a major storm in late August.

This Week’s Weather

The northeast just got hit by a major severe weather outbreak in the past two days, one of the biggest of the season. And, this is directly related to an outbreak that happened on March 28th, or 47 days earlier.  One of the biggest outbreaks of the year occurred on April 3rd, and this lines up with this weekend.  Let’s take a look:

1

The setup for Saturday in the upper levels is quite similar to what has happened in each LRC Cycle this year, so four other previous times. We are in the fifth cycle of this year’s pattern. Let’s see how this sets up for Saturday evening.  Kansas City may have a few rain showers later today, but the drought continues to build overhead and there is one month left of what would be considered our wettest 30-day stretch on average.  There are chances showing up, but as we all just experienced; we just got missed again, like we did all winter long.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Sunny this morning with cumulus clouds growing and building later this morning through the afternoon. A weak upper level storm will move overhead tonight and this will likely help produce a few showers and possibly even a thunderstorm. The chance at any one location is up to 30 percent, but many areas will likely stay dry again today. High:  80°
  • Thursday:  Mostly sunny with late morning through afternoon clouds. High: 81°

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the cycling pattern.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

2018-05-18T11:23:11+00:00May 16th, 2018|General|70 Comments

70 Comments

  1. Three7s May 16, 2018 at 7:32 am - Reply

    Yawn

  2. Blue Flash May 16, 2018 at 7:44 am - Reply

    I’ll be in Ft. Lauderdale next week and Sarasota the following week. Will keep you posted on my observations should a tropical system affect us down there. For now, just looks like a washout for at least the next week or so.

  3. jsquibble May 16, 2018 at 8:07 am - Reply

    this is a pretty bold post to make about the tropics since i never really heard about you making predictions about that part of the world but i do have a big question about your forecast

    the peak of hurricane season is the middle of september and normally during that time going into October the LRC goes into a transition phase. wouldnt this transition phase affect your prediction for if and where storms will hit?

    • Gary May 16, 2018 at 9:10 am - Reply

      The system works until around early October. So, most of hurricane season.

      Gary

  4. Michael Casteel May 16, 2018 at 8:15 am - Reply

    Gary
    I enjoyed watching your golf video with Tom Watson! Better stick to WEATHER! LOL!!! Have a great day Bloggers!
    Michael

  5. Nate May 16, 2018 at 8:26 am - Reply

    Guess I’ll have to hit NWS for a pertinent weather discussion

  6. Brittany May 16, 2018 at 9:03 am - Reply

    Gary, I’m confused about something. I always thought that most severe weather was along a cold front during a storm system, but in the model above, you have it circled over the warm front. Why is that?

    • Gary May 16, 2018 at 9:12 am - Reply

      Brittany,

      The biggest severe weather target is most often near and northeast of the surface low, along the warm front, where I have that circle. The area along the cold front needs to be monitored too, but the capping layer of warmer air aloft is usually farther south along that boundary. We will see how it sets up and discuss a bit more tomorrow.

      • Brittany May 16, 2018 at 9:18 am - Reply

        Ahhh, gotcha. Thanks!

  7. Brittany May 16, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

    Also, do you have any idea how it’ll be looking for Florida/Orlando in early July? My mom and I are going to Disney World for a week and I’m curious.

  8. Fredd32 May 16, 2018 at 9:28 am - Reply

    I will be in Sanibel Island, Florida in early July as well. Would love to know where the lord falls during that time!

    • REAL HUMEDUDE May 16, 2018 at 1:21 pm - Reply

      Storm systems don’t make it that far south in Summer, theybare up in Canada predominantly so LRC won t help Floridian forecasts as much as areas further north. Safe to say you can expect hot days, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms almost anywhere in Florida during summer. Love Sanibel Island!

  9. Fredd32 May 16, 2018 at 9:28 am - Reply

    “Lrc” not lord…lol

  10. f00dl3 May 16, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

    HRRR shows numerous scattered thunderstorms around after 6 PM tonight.
    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2018051613/CGP/HRRRCGP_prec_radar_013.png
    I call Bull.

  11. Tim May 16, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

    Hmm..a map that’s covers 80% of east coast that already regularly sees tropical systems every year? This is like saying Kansas city will see 0 to 4inches of precipitation next week, or the royals will end with 60 to 100 wins….

    • Craig May 16, 2018 at 10:42 am - Reply

      That’s bullshit and you’re just being a simple troll.
      Hurricane Hermine made landfall in Florida in 2016 and that was the first in Florida since 2005. So to say that “80% of the east coast already sees tropical systems every year” betrays either your ignorance or your simple desire to be a worthless troll on this board.

      • Mason - Basehor May 16, 2018 at 2:20 pm - Reply

        Craig:

        Notice Gary’s forecast isn’t for a HURRICANE; it includes tropical storms. There have been a slew of tropical storms in that red zone in the last ten years. In fact, there’s been multiple in that zone EVERY Year.

        See 2017 for instance:
        https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2017.png

        So yeah, the forecast is far from bold.

        Also, early September is the peak of the tropical season; again, not bold.

        • JoeK May 16, 2018 at 2:53 pm - Reply

          mason,

          You didn’t read his discussion thoroughly. First, A major storm system has been predicted for the end of May/Beginning of June for months. 47 days from that, another will form in the same general area and again 47 days after that. Take the system the GFS is picking up on now, it will return around mid July and again end of August- First of September. These are the specific forecasts for tropical storms and a hurricane to form.

    • JoeK May 16, 2018 at 12:44 pm - Reply

      Tim,

      Regularly? where do you get your statistics from? If predicting hurricanes and tropical systems were so easy or had any type of regularity, there would hardly ever be any life loss. truth is the area Gary identified is a small portion of the US coastal areas that experience tropical systems. Further more, when there is a hurricane that makes land fall between 8/29 and 9/3 in the Gulf, you will have witnessed the LRC in action. Show me another source that can predict with that type of accuracy

      • Tim May 16, 2018 at 2:10 pm - Reply

        Regularity? 80% of the entire area that ever sees a landfall tropical system– invest, depression, tropical storm, or hirricane in the past 100 years is in that map!!! Can be further backed up by statistics of historical frequency (in years) by the NHC of a landfalling hurricane in https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/return_hurr.jpg. with exception of outerbanks of NC.. Garys map isn’t much different.

        • JoeK May 16, 2018 at 2:55 pm - Reply

          Tim,

          Regularity does not define a 3 year absence of any major tropical systems and that is exactly what happened from 13-16 and last year the hotspot was down around Texas so to say this forecast isn’t bold, is a matter of perception I guess

  12. Brian May 16, 2018 at 9:56 am - Reply

    Are you going to revise your weather outlook regarding above average rainfall amounts for KC this spring? What about the cooler than normal temperatures? What about the above average snowfall prediction?

    If you continue to make predictions that don’t come to fruition, using this years LRC, how can anyone trust you to predict the possibility of tropical storm systems affecting such a large portion of the continental United States?

    Further, having tracked hurricanes for a number of years, it isn’t a stretch to predict hurricanes within the area you highlighted. Colorado State University has predicted a slight above average season, too…using 60 years of data research. So your prediction isn’t much different than theirs….

    Finally, what’s the weather going to be on Memorial Day weekend, using the LRC?

    • JoeK May 16, 2018 at 12:48 pm - Reply

      Brian,

      If it isn’t a stretch to predict hurricanes in the highlighted area, tell me how many hurricanes have made landfall in that area in the past 10 years? also, tell me the recent 3 year period with ZERO hurricanes anywhere in the Gulf. Moreover, Colorado State university is making a very broad and generic forecast for the season, the LRC is much more specific and with specific dates. Predicting a hurricane with any type of accuracy is ground breaking, it hasn’t been done by any other source, only by the LRC. If I am wrong, please provide specifics as well as sources.

      • Mason - Basehor May 16, 2018 at 2:27 pm - Reply

        JoeK:

        You tout the rarity of hurricanes, but notice Gary’s hot spot claim isn’t for hurricanes alone; it includes tropical storms.

        Any review of historical data shows multiple tropical depressions, storms, hurricanes in that red zone every year.

        See the link I posted above for source data.

        Placing a tropical system in that red zone at some point in the season (no dates specified in today’s forecast) is an easy win — of course that will happen.

        If that’s our yard stick, then I’ll be bold too: Sometime in June there will be severe thunderstorms in the plains!

        • JoeK May 16, 2018 at 2:57 pm - Reply

          Mason,

          See above. Based on history, it is conceivable these areas do not experience any major tropical systems as has been dictated by historical data. Moreover, if you take the time to read the forecast and apply the 47 day cycle, it is much more specific that you perceive it to be

  13. REAL HUMEDUDE May 16, 2018 at 10:55 am - Reply

    I think HRR is onto something. There is a small vort lobe coming down the NW flow, we are fairly uncapped, and its pretty warm and muggy outside. I think this is a classic case of calling a chance 20-30%, only to have it be a lot more coverage than was expected ( sort of like last week, Gary poo-pooed every chance but yet there were storms around several times.) I would go 40%, the vort looks to be tracking perfectly to come in at peak heating right through metro.

  14. Heat Miser May 16, 2018 at 11:26 am - Reply

    LoL…I think that hot spot area is “huge” and covers most of the spots that get hurricanes. ha ha…not at daring forecast.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE May 16, 2018 at 12:02 pm - Reply

      Those places go years, sometimes decades without a hurricane landfall. Its actually the kind of daring forecast ive been wanting out of 2020 team.

      • JoeK May 16, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

        Real,

        Exactly…………….Heat, I am shocked by your position, and to think I am a normal defender of you 😀

        • Heat Miser May 16, 2018 at 3:10 pm - Reply

          It’s daring if hes saying the u.s. will get hit by a number of tropical systems. Not so daring to say any tropical systems will most likely hit from Louisiana to North Carolina…that’s where the vast majority of Hurricanes hit anyway. Not sure what is shocking about saying that…it’s seems pretty obvious observation to me.

    • Tim May 16, 2018 at 2:13 pm - Reply

      Thank you heat. 30 years of tracking hurricanes. I used to live in the southeast… so there’s more to it than just hurricanes.

  15. Anonymous May 16, 2018 at 12:59 pm - Reply

    So….you can’t make an accurate forecast for KC using the LRC, but you think you can with tropical systems? LOL!

    Try getting our local forecast right, first.

    • Brittany May 16, 2018 at 1:55 pm - Reply

      I’d like to see you do any better. Lay off.

      • TDogg May 16, 2018 at 2:08 pm - Reply

        Relax Brittany and go take a Midol…He has a valid question.

  16. Mason - Basehor May 16, 2018 at 2:30 pm - Reply

    What I would love to see more than a generic tropical systems forecast is a bold and specific forecast for the KC region for Memorial Day weekend and another for Independence Day weekend — posted at least 14 days out (beyond model range).

    But I assume I’ll eventually be censored and have my requests and critiques deleted from this blog since that seems to be the M.O. to quash critical thinking here lately.

    • JoeK May 16, 2018 at 3:01 pm - Reply

      Mason,

      First, weather2020 is global, not just a KC weather blog. Second, your request for a memorial Day and July 4th is a fair request. Using the LRC, memorial day weekend looks to be okay for our area with a strong storm system arriving between the 28th and June 2. Ill try and look into July 4th later . Finally, questioning the LRC or anything for that matter in a scientific manner is perfectly acceptable. Gary only censors the assholes who come here to mock and troll 😀

      • Tdogg May 16, 2018 at 3:09 pm - Reply

        How are you related to Gary?

        • JoeK May 16, 2018 at 5:57 pm - Reply

          I am not related to Gary, just a weather enthusiast who takes the time to study and learn rather than act like a juvenile and come to a weather blog to get some twisted enjoyment out of trolling, making fun and throwing shade at people. Still will never understand how trolling any blog under perceived anonymity is remotely rewarding.

  17. Snow Miser May 16, 2018 at 3:47 pm - Reply

    There’s this one weather station just southeast of Maryville that already has an inch-and-a-half of rain! One little storm just hanging out over the area:
    https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMOMARYV2

    • Gary May 16, 2018 at 3:52 pm - Reply

      We are tracking these slow moving thunderstorms. It is a small disturbance.

      Gary

      • Lary Gezak May 16, 2018 at 4:14 pm - Reply

        Any chance of storms tonight?

  18. JasonAtt May 16, 2018 at 4:22 pm - Reply

    Just curious if the hurricane forecast would have been bold enough if he said that Wyoming would be hit by a hurricane? This argument is ridiculous. Just about any long range forecast is going to be close to norms. Just because it is a different method to forecast it doesn’t mean that the weather is all of a sudden going to change.

  19. Angie May 16, 2018 at 4:40 pm - Reply

    Gary, there will be a lot of graduations this Saturday. Any idea how the weather will be early in the day?

    • Gary May 16, 2018 at 7:40 pm - Reply

      I will try to time it out in tomorrows blog and tonights newscast!

  20. Matt May 16, 2018 at 5:41 pm - Reply

    What type of Severe Weather do you think for Saturday Evening because no Risk type yet?

  21. MattinLeavenworth May 16, 2018 at 6:05 pm - Reply

    Man, I walk outside here in LV look to the north and some big clouds were right there raised into the air. I look down on my phone to check the radar and they are all the way up in atchison. Its amazing how massive the clouds are to enable you to see them well from such distances.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE May 16, 2018 at 6:32 pm - Reply

      They are 2X taller than Mt.Everest in some situations. That’s Alot of water floating around in the sky, amazing

      • MattinLeavenworth May 16, 2018 at 7:22 pm - Reply

        That is nuts

  22. MattinLeavenworth May 16, 2018 at 6:11 pm - Reply

    Correction to previous post. I was actually looking straight north from the river to St Joe. 30 miles out. Will these storms hold?

  23. Richard May 16, 2018 at 6:37 pm - Reply

    Gary

    (Gary May 16, 2018 at 9:10 am – Reply
    The system works until around early October. So, most of hurricane season.)

    I think you said this years LRC first cycle began Oct 10. Correct ?
    And the couple of weeks before that were transition days. Right ?

  24. Mr. Pete May 16, 2018 at 6:44 pm - Reply

    What’s the story on those storms to the north of KC?

    • Mark May 16, 2018 at 7:36 pm - Reply

      They are creeping this way.

      Hopefully that St. Joe guy got some rain.

      • Kurt May 16, 2018 at 9:41 pm - Reply

        Hit or miss up here around St Joseph, I never got any heavy rain like Monday night. Just steady light rain of about 4/10 of an inch. Don’t think the official reporting station got over 1/4 of an inch; they’re still below 4 inches total year to date and some parts of St Joseph and the region are approaching 7 inches below normal year to date.

        I sympathize with those of you with dry yards but I’ve lived that all last summer and the winter and had to water nonstop to try to keep yard and plants alive when the KC area was flooded several times.

        If you want green yards have to water unfortunately

  25. WeathermanKumke May 16, 2018 at 6:51 pm - Reply

    Looks like the HRRR did good

  26. L.B May 16, 2018 at 6:59 pm - Reply

    small minds large expectations…Gary if I send you the GPS coordinates to my house will you tell me how much rain I will get in the next ten hours. This planet is big people, try to think beyond your county…sheeeeeesh

  27. Tdogg May 16, 2018 at 7:55 pm - Reply

    Any chance this changes to snow tonight?…asking for a friend 😉

    • Mr. Pete May 16, 2018 at 8:04 pm - Reply

      What part of Canada do you live in?

  28. Snow Miser May 16, 2018 at 8:06 pm - Reply

    These are the cool kind of thunderstorms you can see building up in the distance.

  29. REAL HUMEDUDE May 16, 2018 at 8:10 pm - Reply

    Nice little storm popped upright over my house in eastern Shawnee. Dumping huge bird sized rain drops right now

  30. REAL HUMEDUDE May 16, 2018 at 8:11 pm - Reply

    Ps……told ya the HRRR was onto something with that little vort lobe!

  31. Michael Garner May 16, 2018 at 8:48 pm - Reply

    Amazing to see such a temperature forecast difference between Gary and another station. Next Wednesday current forecast from Gary 77, another station 90. That’s a big difference. I’ll take 77, so Gary you better be right… it doesn’t matter, I’ll still put your forecast ahead of the other guys.

  32. Snow Miser May 16, 2018 at 8:49 pm - Reply

    It’s already starting to fizzle out. Barely making it over the state line south of the river.

    • Snow Miser May 16, 2018 at 9:20 pm - Reply

      This is ridiculous. I’ve been waiting 2 hours for what seems to be an imminent arrival of the storm here southeast of the stadiums, but it’s barely making it east of I-435.

      At least some folks are getting a decent dousing. Wish it was me.

  33. Blue Flash May 16, 2018 at 8:52 pm - Reply

    Second time this month KCI hits the jackpot with well over an inch of rain….while I, and most of the metro remain bone dry. So our drought won’t be supported by the climatological data….

  34. Trevor May 16, 2018 at 8:58 pm - Reply

    Gary this is great information. I work in the insurance industry and when catastrophes strike, we have to help adjusters get licensed so people can get their money. I will take this info and see about what states we should target to make sure they are ready of something happens. Is Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands in any paths? Those two are high on our list and quite frankly are scared of the prospects of a repeat of last year! They are still trying to recover!

  35. Mr. Pete May 16, 2018 at 9:50 pm - Reply

    Measured about 100 drops in Prairie Village.

  36. Ross May 16, 2018 at 9:58 pm - Reply

    Amazing deluge of rain/hail coming home to N. OP from Shawnee on Johnson Drive. Looked like many at Shawnee Mission North Stadium were still there for graduation ceremonies. Saw many drenched people!

  37. Matt May 17, 2018 at 6:28 am - Reply

    Saturday day Marginal Risk at moment.

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