We Are Entering The Wettest Time Of The Year On Average

/We Are Entering The Wettest Time Of The Year On Average

We Are Entering The Wettest Time Of The Year On Average

Good morning bloggers,

As Jeff showed yesterday, it is very dry across the plains.  This could change fast, but the pressure is on this next month.  The wettest 30-day stretch on average in Kansas City is from around mid-May to mid-June.  The models continue to show high rainfall amounts in the 3 to 6 inch range during the next 15 days near Kansas City.  A day like today is important for these higher totals.  Today appears to have the best chance of thunderstorms during the work week, and we will look into this set up in just a second. Here are the weather pattern events that are on the LRC potential radar:

  • One of the biggest severe weather outbreaks of the season happened on April 3, 2018.  This part of the pattern cycles through in the next week.  Will it produce again? It has started to show up on some of the models, and it is due back sometime later this week into the weekend.
  • The tropical system in the Gulf forming now is right on schedule, and the one that has been showing up around the 24th to 30th is one of the signature storms we have been monitoring for and it will likely form. It is May, so a tropical depression or a tropical storm is possible, but it is still early. A hurricane this early is almost unheard of, so not expected, but let’s see how it develops. Our forecast of a system forming before the end of the month was issued months ago.  This part of the pattern will cycle back through in mid-July, and then in the late August to early September time frame.  Florida and the northeast Gulf of Mexico is the target
  • This end of the month period is also a period of time we have forecasted the return of the April 12 – April 17 severe weather set-ups.  Expect this part of the pattern to also return about the time that tropical system is developing

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Storm chasers are describing this tornado as the tornado of the year thus far. I do not believe there has been a larger or stronger tornado in 2018, which is amazing. This was an EF-3 that grew to a half mile wide at one point.  It missed major structures, which is great news.  KSHB-TV Meteorologist Gerard Jebaily was in 41 Action News Storm Tracker and I was on the phone with him as we watched this large tornado develop.  There is around one month left in tornado season. Severe weather is still possible during the summer months, but traditional tornado season usually ends around mid-June as the jet stream retreats north and summer arrives.  This has been a very inactive year for tornadoes and severe weather. Take a look at these stats from the SPC:
Screen Shot 2018-05-14 at 7.14.30 AM

The number of confirmed tornadoes is quite low, but that number will likely grow a bit. Overall, it has been quiet. There is one month left in traditional tornado season.  Let’s see how these set-ups present themselves, beginning with today.

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The tornado risk today, shown above, is quite low for a mid-May severe weather outlook like we see below:

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The Storm Prediction Center is not expecting or forecasting tornado risks today, but there is a chance that one or two areas will experience some organized severe thunderstorms in clusters with strong winds and large hail being the main risk types.  The models are all over the place with the placement of where the thunderstorms are being modeled to develop. The latest HRRR model runs have had Kansas City getting missed this evening.  My lawn needs some water, and I am sure many of you are in the same boat. Hey farmers out there, let us know how the dry early season has been for your crops. I know it is early, and we would appreciate any insight and information you can provide. Are you concerned?

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  As of 7:45 AM radar showed a thin band of thunderstorms over central Kansas. This is showing a slow moving disturbance moving east and it should be over eastern Kansas by this evening. This is when the best chance of thunderstorms will arrive.  High: 88°
  • Tonight:  A 60% chance of thunderstorms during the evening hours. The chance goes down later.

Have a great start to your day. Go over to the Weather2020.com blog and join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

2018-05-14T17:08:50+00:00 May 14th, 2018|General|47 Comments

47 Comments

  1. Vernon T. Taggert May 14, 2018 at 8:23 am - Reply

    Gary, I am not a farmer, but I am in construction, if it rains tonight, that is OK and won’t hurt us too much, should dry quickly, however “others” are saying there is a chance of rain by noon, don’t need that. What do you think?

    • Gary May 14, 2018 at 8:56 am - Reply

      This is why we all get a bad wrap on weather forecasting. There are so many other horrible sources of inaccurate weather information, and I can’t do anything about it, and this includes all automated apps. There is ZERO percent chance before noon. The chance is like what I have on the timeline in this blog, so around late evening, late afternoon at the earliest.

      • Snow Miser May 14, 2018 at 9:14 am - Reply

        “There is ZERO percent chance before noon.”

        I predict we’ll get a small shower at 11:59. :-\

      • Fred Nolan May 14, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

        NWS saying we could have storms by 1PM if they hold together…

      • Vernon T. Taggert May 14, 2018 at 1:56 pm - Reply

        Gary, agreed, I go by your thoughts, we are placing concrete.

  2. Troy Newman May 14, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

    We don’t grow any wheat and not much around here but I went a county to my SW this weekend and the wheat in Mitchell county looked really bad. It was heading out and only 6-8″ tall and yellow on the bottom third of the plant. Planting is going great with the dry weather and a lot of guys are finishing up. Pasture and ponds are another problem. A lot of ponds are really low or dry completely as we haven’t had a runoff event since last May. Grass for cattle is there now but won’t last long if rains don’t materialize soon. I was at a graduation party yesterday and most of the neighbors are pretty concerned as crop prices are still poor and we don’t need to add a year of poor production to it.

  3. Matt May 14, 2018 at 8:45 am - Reply

    SPC has Enhanced Risk by East Coast.

  4. Farmgirl May 14, 2018 at 9:26 am - Reply

    Due to the cold April, grass growth was slowed dramatically, now without much moisture in the southern half of the viewing area, the grass is about 1/3 shorter than it normally is for this time in May. I am expecting lower hay yields too and if we don’t get the needed rains within the next 10 -14 days the window to produce good growth is lost. Hay prices will sky rocket if it appears a drought situation will occur which does have an impact on all our wallets.

  5. REAL HUMEDUDE May 14, 2018 at 10:05 am - Reply

    It’s drying out fast down south, but not in panic mode yet. Grass is behind schedule for sure, thanks to super cold April and now dry May. I’m thinking of a season couple years ago when we we were very dry going into June, suddenly we got 10″ in first 10 days of June and boom, grass took off and we were just doing the hay season several weeks later than usual but we still made a decent hay crop. As long as the rains eventually come this month we should be ok area wide, but if we end up in June and no relief in sight concerns will grow exponentially

  6. Anonymous by choice May 14, 2018 at 10:28 am - Reply

    Mower Mike #WETDROUGHT.

  7. Richard May 14, 2018 at 11:35 am - Reply

    Gary
    6:05 gametime for Royals
    Do you think they will get the game in ?
    Guess it doesn’t matter at this point. They are in a big hurt.

    • Gary May 14, 2018 at 2:19 pm - Reply

      The best chance of thunderstorms for the city is this evening This cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms formed around a weak upper level wave. It is a shame that they formed east of KC. We missed another opportunity, but there is another evening wave that may produce, and the Royals game, that could have a delay, will depend on where these evening thunderstorms develop.

      Gary

  8. Jack May 14, 2018 at 12:14 pm - Reply

    Latest convective outlook talks about a possible upgrade to enhanced risk in the 3 o’clock update.

  9. f00dl3 May 14, 2018 at 12:36 pm - Reply

    Cells popping up now. One near Independence.

  10. Mason - Basehor May 14, 2018 at 12:41 pm - Reply

    Nice looking storm on the east side right now.

    “Late afternoon at the earliest …” ?

    😉

    • f00dl3 May 14, 2018 at 12:42 pm - Reply

      There is ZERO percent chance before noon. The chance is like what I have on the timeline in this blog, so around late evening, late afternoon at the earliest.

      :S

      I know. The LRC can’t predict storm initiation times.

      • Fred Nolan May 14, 2018 at 12:59 pm - Reply

        Well, technically speaking noon has come and gone with no rain. Anything after 12:00:00 PM is not part of the “zero” chance.

        • Mason - Basehor May 14, 2018 at 1:04 pm - Reply

          True on the noon line, but to rip other forecasts that are calling for midday storms and to then say “late afternoon at the earliest” . . . is not the best look when Independence is getting rocked at 12:30pm.

          And it’s backbuilding to the west even before 1pm.

          • Fred Nolan May 14, 2018 at 1:21 pm - Reply

            Especially when “other forecasts” were accurate…

      • Gary May 14, 2018 at 2:21 pm - Reply

        There was a zero percent chance before noon. There was nothing before noon. Late evening is still the best chance for the rest of us.

    • Snow Miser May 14, 2018 at 12:51 pm - Reply

      Big thunder just happened in downtown Independence!

  11. Matt May 14, 2018 at 1:08 pm - Reply

    MO or KS?
    Looking at ST Watch per SPC.

  12. Mr. Pete May 14, 2018 at 1:15 pm - Reply

    Seems like the rain always forms east of me these days…

  13. Matt May 14, 2018 at 1:20 pm - Reply

    ST Watch intill 10pm.

  14. Mason - Basehor May 14, 2018 at 1:21 pm - Reply

    Thunderstorm Watch box just issued for the entire metro. 1:21pm.

  15. Jayhawkfinalfour May 14, 2018 at 1:35 pm - Reply

    Any storms towards Leavenworth county later? All seem to be south and east

  16. Kurt May 14, 2018 at 1:40 pm - Reply

    Whatever, winds gusting out of the Northwest in St.Joseph. There goes our chance of rain. Not sure why the National Weather Service doesn’t just start making specific forecasts for St. Joseph that just say dry and isolated sprinkles or spotty showers. Again those that need to rain the most aren’t getting anything. I should have focused on watering yesterday versus mowing, now I will need to water the flower beds, pots and yard. This is the most frustrating weather pattern and I bet the hay crop from my pasture is going to be less than 25% of what is was last year. Most of the grasses are seeding out now and only 6 inches to just over a foot. A typical year and the grasses would be chest high and very thick; not the case this year.

    Just waiting for the drought monitor to upgrade the St. Joseph area into a severe drought and soon after an extreme drought. It’s going to be bad and I just don’t see how it changes.

    • Snow Miser May 14, 2018 at 1:56 pm - Reply

      We feel for you Kurt!

      Maybe it’s time to start a cactus crop up there. :-\

  17. Anonymous May 14, 2018 at 1:41 pm - Reply

    Sever t storm watch issued till 10. Hope it means rain

  18. Kurt May 14, 2018 at 2:00 pm - Reply

    The succulents are doing very well this year. Was hoping we’d break out of this bad weather pattern after being stiffed last year but doesn’t appear to be the case yet again. Hopefully this is only a 2 year blip and not a long term 4 or 5 year drought.

  19. Mr. Pete May 14, 2018 at 2:20 pm - Reply

    Like the others have said, my yard looks like crap this spring. Even with proper watering and fertilizer it’s still not 100%.

  20. Fred Nolan May 14, 2018 at 2:24 pm - Reply

    That storm down in Burlington is looking impressive.

  21. Bobbie May 14, 2018 at 2:31 pm - Reply

    So far this is a BUST!

  22. Fredd32 May 14, 2018 at 2:55 pm - Reply

    Looks like its going to get interesting here pretty shortly!

    • Matt May 14, 2018 at 3:03 pm - Reply

      Where?

      • TDogg May 14, 2018 at 3:40 pm - Reply

        Your moms house.

  23. Nick May 14, 2018 at 3:27 pm - Reply

    looking at the lastest HRRR, and radar and the fact that the strong NW breeze is gone here in St. Joe, I think the breeze was just an outflow and not the real fropa, and the latests HRRR has STJ getting some action this evening, we will see, but its still pretty warm here so I am cautiously optomistic 😀 😀 😉

  24. Fred Nolan May 14, 2018 at 3:42 pm - Reply

    That storm down in Burlington hasnt moved much.

    • Snow Miser May 14, 2018 at 3:43 pm - Reply

      I was just noticing, these storms aren’t moving very fast. One weather station near Burlington already has about an inch of rain. Hope the storms don’t peter out before they get to KC.

      • Fred Nolan May 14, 2018 at 3:46 pm - Reply

        A good soaking is really needed right now.

      • Matt May 14, 2018 at 3:49 pm - Reply

        Looks like more Storms tonight and all types other then maybe Tornado’s.

  25. Anonymous May 14, 2018 at 4:07 pm - Reply

    How many days ago was the crazy heavy rain from Pleasant Hill, Missouri to Moberly, Missouri that caused all of the flooding? It just happened again on almost the same line plus or minus 20 miles either way.

    • Gary May 14, 2018 at 4:34 pm - Reply

      49 days ago! Hmmmmmmmmm

      Jeff is writing up a new blog entry right now. We are on the backside of the central, MO wave. This small area of thunderstorms west of Lawrence is tracking east, and we have identified another main wave due in between 10 PM and 4 AM tonight. We need the rain, and the pressure is on for this next wave to produce. The front is still northwest of KC, but weakening. Just like during the winter, Mother Nature is trying to find a way to leave us dry. We will see what happens in these next few critical hours. The new blog will be up soon.

      Gary

  26. REAL HUMEDUDE May 14, 2018 at 4:27 pm - Reply

    Storm to the West of me around Burlington hasn’t moved on bit towards the east, it will do whatever neccessary to.miss the farm I’m quite sure. The other storms in MO had no problem moving rapidly to the east, but not the storm I need!
    This thing has poof written all over it…..

  27. Mr. Pete May 14, 2018 at 4:30 pm - Reply

    Yards will remain thirsty in metro it appears.

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