Good morning bloggers,
As Jeff showed yesterday, it is very dry across the plains. This could change fast, but the pressure is on this next month. The wettest 30-day stretch on average in Kansas City is from around mid-May to mid-June. The models continue to show high rainfall amounts in the 3 to 6 inch range during the next 15 days near Kansas City. A day like today is important for these higher totals. Today appears to have the best chance of thunderstorms during the work week, and we will look into this set up in just a second. Here are the weather pattern events that are on the LRC potential radar:
- One of the biggest severe weather outbreaks of the season happened on April 3, 2018. This part of the pattern cycles through in the next week. Will it produce again? It has started to show up on some of the models, and it is due back sometime later this week into the weekend.
- The tropical system in the Gulf forming now is right on schedule, and the one that has been showing up around the 24th to 30th is one of the signature storms we have been monitoring for and it will likely form. It is May, so a tropical depression or a tropical storm is possible, but it is still early. A hurricane this early is almost unheard of, so not expected, but let’s see how it develops. Our forecast of a system forming before the end of the month was issued months ago. This part of the pattern will cycle back through in mid-July, and then in the late August to early September time frame. Florida and the northeast Gulf of Mexico is the target
- This end of the month period is also a period of time we have forecasted the return of the April 12 – April 17 severe weather set-ups. Expect this part of the pattern to also return about the time that tropical system is developing
Storm chasers are describing this tornado as the tornado of the year thus far. I do not believe there has been a larger or stronger tornado in 2018, which is amazing. This was an EF-3 that grew to a half mile wide at one point. It missed major structures, which is great news. KSHB-TV Meteorologist Gerard Jebaily was in 41 Action News Storm Tracker and I was on the phone with him as we watched this large tornado develop. There is around one month left in tornado season. Severe weather is still possible during the summer months, but traditional tornado season usually ends around mid-June as the jet stream retreats north and summer arrives. This has been a very inactive year for tornadoes and severe weather. Take a look at these stats from the SPC:
The number of confirmed tornadoes is quite low, but that number will likely grow a bit. Overall, it has been quiet. There is one month left in traditional tornado season. Let’s see how these set-ups present themselves, beginning with today.
The tornado risk today, shown above, is quite low for a mid-May severe weather outlook like we see below:
The Storm Prediction Center is not expecting or forecasting tornado risks today, but there is a chance that one or two areas will experience some organized severe thunderstorms in clusters with strong winds and large hail being the main risk types. The models are all over the place with the placement of where the thunderstorms are being modeled to develop. The latest HRRR model runs have had Kansas City getting missed this evening. My lawn needs some water, and I am sure many of you are in the same boat. Hey farmers out there, let us know how the dry early season has been for your crops. I know it is early, and we would appreciate any insight and information you can provide. Are you concerned?
Kansas City Weather Timeline:
- Today: As of 7:45 AM radar showed a thin band of thunderstorms over central Kansas. This is showing a slow moving disturbance moving east and it should be over eastern Kansas by this evening. This is when the best chance of thunderstorms will arrive. High: 88°
- Tonight: A 60% chance of thunderstorms during the evening hours. The chance goes down later.
Have a great start to your day. Go over to the Weather2020.com blog and join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.