Thunderstorm Forecast Update

/Thunderstorm Forecast Update

Thunderstorm Forecast Update

Good Monday night bloggers,

This has been another day with thunderstorms in the forecast that has been tough to figure out. It now looks like we have a decent idea on how this will evolve through the night into Tuesday.

The models are terrible in forecasting precipitation, and especially thunderstorms. Now, the models, especially 6-24 hours out are much better at picking up disturbances moving through the flow. So, it is time to use real meteorology and not just look at precipitation output. Precipitation, and in this case, showers and thunderstorms, form along and ahead of upper level disturbances, waves. Sometimes, the models get confused with precipitation forecasts.

We had a well defined wave that moved to KC around noon and thunderstorms exploded in Jackson county before becoming a severe cluster in central Missouri during the afternoon. This is wave #1. The new 18z data is now picking up on a second wave, now in the Rockies.

Here are the two waves as of 430 PM. The first one is moving towards the Mississippi river, while the second one is over Colorado. The second one is timed to arrive between midnight and 7 AM. So, we are expecting new thunderstorms after midnight and these have the chance to be widespread with a low severe threat.

1

The thunderstorms in between the two waves are being caused by various boundaries left over from thunderstorms Sunday night and a cold front drifting south. These scattered thunderstorms may be severe at times this evening with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

2

Let’s take a look at the latest short range data that seems to have a decent handle on the situation.

MONDAY 8 PM: Wave #1 is in Illinois as wave #2 is moving into western Kansas. You can see the scattered showers and thunderstorms in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Again, some thunderstorms may be severe with large hail and brief damaging wind gusts.

3

MIDNIGHT: The second wave is quite well defined west of Wichita. Eastern Kansas and western Missouri are still having a few lingering showers and thunderstorms at this time with the severe threat quite low as daytime heating is gone. This second wave will likely move east-northeast and affect our area with much needed rain between midnight and 7 AM. Let’s hope it holds together so we can receive beneficial rain.

4

TUESDAY 3 AM: This would be great news as widespread rain and thunderstorms overspread the area. The chance of severe weather will be quite low at this time, but wind gusts to 40-50 mph are possible if this is right.

5

WEATHER TIMELINE:

NOW TO MIDNIGHT: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few may be severe with temperatures dropping into the 70s

MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM: A good chance of rain and thunderstorms with some wind gusts to 40-50 mph. Total rainfall would be .25″ to 1″ with some locations seeing 2″+. Lows in the 60s.

7 AM TO NOON TUESDAY: Any rain exits quickly leading to a nice day with highs around 80.

If we miss the rain tonight, then chances stay low until the weekend. Now, Wednesday through Friday may see daily scattered showers and thunderstorms, but nothing organized as it stands now.

Have a great night,

Jeff

2018-05-15T07:02:02+00:00May 14th, 2018|General|31 Comments

31 Comments

  1. Bobbie May 14, 2018 at 5:51 pm - Reply

    Awesome update Gary thank you

    • Richard May 14, 2018 at 7:13 pm - Reply

      Jeff, not Gary

  2. Mattinleavenworth May 14, 2018 at 6:11 pm - Reply

    It was jeff who wrote the blog and it was good.

    • Richard May 14, 2018 at 7:14 pm - Reply

      Sorry I commented to that before I saw yours

  3. Matt May 14, 2018 at 6:20 pm - Reply

    Tornado Warning in Southeast KS,

  4. Snow Miser May 14, 2018 at 6:25 pm - Reply

    That area in SE KS is just getting tons of rain.

  5. DanT May 14, 2018 at 6:56 pm - Reply

    Thanks for the update, was thinking Olathe and other areas got missed big time.

  6. Snow Miser May 14, 2018 at 7:03 pm - Reply

    I sense a big POOF event in progress. Everything seems to be going south of the city.

  7. Richard May 14, 2018 at 7:16 pm - Reply

    Just saw nice mammatus clouds.
    Is that the right word for those cotton ball clouds ?

  8. REAL HUMEDUDE May 14, 2018 at 7:19 pm - Reply

    My goodness it’s just managing to miss the farm one way or another this afternoon, hitting a wall around my area and deflecting to the south every time. My farm has a lid on it, I need a big rain folks! Everybody does practically, good luck guys I hope you get yours

  9. Nick May 14, 2018 at 7:26 pm - Reply

    right now there is a little cell that popped up in Doniphan county as if Mother Nature is just throwing some salt into the wound, just dangling that thing right there, still have a little hope for the evening but wow, its like pulling teeth, and the gfs keeps teasing us with forecasting future big rains near by just days away, good news is, no matter what happens, this LRC is already over half over. 😛

  10. f00dl3 May 14, 2018 at 7:44 pm - Reply

    HRRR is really not getting this event at all. HRRR was showing everything passing to our south just on the last run and now it’s flaring up west of Topeka like your model shows it doing at Midnight – but now!

    • Snow Miser May 14, 2018 at 8:12 pm - Reply

      Particularly for systems like this, I think even the HRRR just identifies a general area where storms should occur, and then create a bunch of random blobs in that area. Often it doesn’t even have storms cells that already exist correctly.

  11. Matt May 14, 2018 at 8:20 pm - Reply

    Thundering in OP by Lamar Ave and 101st.

  12. MattinLeavenworth May 14, 2018 at 8:21 pm - Reply

    wow…the radar is alive

  13. Mr. Pete May 14, 2018 at 8:30 pm - Reply

    Looks like everything is splitting around JOCO KS.

  14. Bobbie May 14, 2018 at 8:31 pm - Reply

    Storms are moving in almost every direction and I don’t see any real organization at this moment. I sure hope we get a widespread soaker

  15. f00dl3 May 14, 2018 at 8:36 pm - Reply

    Looks like it’s gonna do the tongie split.

  16. MattinLeavenworth May 14, 2018 at 8:41 pm - Reply

    There is red everywhere

  17. Kstater May 14, 2018 at 8:41 pm - Reply

    Unless something else forms looks like another miss in Lawrence. They need to share the rain down south! Looks like they may get widespread 3-5 inches.

  18. REAL HUMEDUDE May 14, 2018 at 8:45 pm - Reply

    Still can’t get squat at the farm, there’s a block and it can’t get past state line. Just dumping to the West of here, but can’t make it east. Yet way east of here big storms, WHAT GIVES?

  19. Kurt May 14, 2018 at 8:57 pm - Reply

    Same here, got the mowing finished tonight and have sprinklers running in the yard and flowers. Can’t get anything to move over here, but just circles around. Would love an explanation on why some areas keep getting missed

  20. Nate May 14, 2018 at 9:09 pm - Reply

    You really want rain? Leave your car out in the driveway with all the windows down..old trick I learned years ago but you can’t go running out there at the first drop

  21. Emaw May 14, 2018 at 9:16 pm - Reply

    Weather.

  22. Mr. Pete May 14, 2018 at 9:23 pm - Reply

    Turning on the sprinklers.

  23. REAL HUMEDUDE May 14, 2018 at 9:23 pm - Reply

    Is it only plainly obvious to me these storms will never make it to KC?
    The energy out west won t make here either I’m afraid, not now or 4am. I’m thouroghly bummed out weather dudes and dudettes

    • Gary May 14, 2018 at 9:40 pm - Reply

      It is ridiculous!

  24. Kurt May 14, 2018 at 9:42 pm - Reply

    Actually finally started pouring here about 20 minutes ago, really good rain with no wind. Lots of thunder and lightning in the distance

  25. f00dl3 May 15, 2018 at 6:51 am - Reply

    HRRR has really fell off it’s rocker. It STILL has us getting rain today in the 435 loop. OMG – it ain’t gonna happen!

  26. f00dl3 May 15, 2018 at 6:54 am - Reply

    I thought this week was supposed to be wet? Latest GFS gives us a whopping 0.16″ of rain through 6Z Saturday. I’m beginning to think the “rain is always 10 days away” much like the snow was always 10 days away this winter.

Leave A Comment