Thunderstorm Forecast Update

Good Monday night bloggers,

This has been another day with thunderstorms in the forecast that has been tough to figure out. It now looks like we have a decent idea on how this will evolve through the night into Tuesday.

The models are terrible in forecasting precipitation, and especially thunderstorms. Now, the models, especially 6-24 hours out are much better at picking up disturbances moving through the flow. So, it is time to use real meteorology and not just look at precipitation output. Precipitation, and in this case, showers and thunderstorms, form along and ahead of upper level disturbances, waves. Sometimes, the models get confused with precipitation forecasts.

We had a well defined wave that moved to KC around noon and thunderstorms exploded in Jackson county before becoming a severe cluster in central Missouri during the afternoon. This is wave #1. The new 18z data is now picking up on a second wave, now in the Rockies.

Here are the two waves as of 430 PM. The first one is moving towards the Mississippi river, while the second one is over Colorado. The second one is timed to arrive between midnight and 7 AM. So, we are expecting new thunderstorms after midnight and these have the chance to be widespread with a low severe threat.

1

The thunderstorms in between the two waves are being caused by various boundaries left over from thunderstorms Sunday night and a cold front drifting south. These scattered thunderstorms may be severe at times this evening with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

2

Let’s take a look at the latest short range data that seems to have a decent handle on the situation.

MONDAY 8 PM: Wave #1 is in Illinois as wave #2 is moving into western Kansas. You can see the scattered showers and thunderstorms in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Again, some thunderstorms may be severe with large hail and brief damaging wind gusts.

3

MIDNIGHT: The second wave is quite well defined west of Wichita. Eastern Kansas and western Missouri are still having a few lingering showers and thunderstorms at this time with the severe threat quite low as daytime heating is gone. This second wave will likely move east-northeast and affect our area with much needed rain between midnight and 7 AM. Let’s hope it holds together so we can receive beneficial rain.

4

TUESDAY 3 AM: This would be great news as widespread rain and thunderstorms overspread the area. The chance of severe weather will be quite low at this time, but wind gusts to 40-50 mph are possible if this is right.

5

WEATHER TIMELINE:

NOW TO MIDNIGHT: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few may be severe with temperatures dropping into the 70s

MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM: A good chance of rain and thunderstorms with some wind gusts to 40-50 mph. Total rainfall would be .25″ to 1″ with some locations seeing 2″+. Lows in the 60s.

7 AM TO NOON TUESDAY: Any rain exits quickly leading to a nice day with highs around 80.

If we miss the rain tonight, then chances stay low until the weekend. Now, Wednesday through Friday may see daily scattered showers and thunderstorms, but nothing organized as it stands now.

Have a great night,

Jeff

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f00dl3
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f00dl3

I thought this week was supposed to be wet? Latest GFS gives us a whopping 0.16″ of rain through 6Z Saturday. I’m beginning to think the “rain is always 10 days away” much like the snow was always 10 days away this winter.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

HRRR has really fell off it’s rocker. It STILL has us getting rain today in the 435 loop. OMG – it ain’t gonna happen!

Kurt
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Kurt

Actually finally started pouring here about 20 minutes ago, really good rain with no wind. Lots of thunder and lightning in the distance

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Is it only plainly obvious to me these storms will never make it to KC?
The energy out west won t make here either I’m afraid, not now or 4am. I’m thouroghly bummed out weather dudes and dudettes

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Turning on the sprinklers.

Emaw
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Emaw

Weather.

Nate
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Nate

You really want rain? Leave your car out in the driveway with all the windows down..old trick I learned years ago but you can’t go running out there at the first drop

Kurt
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Kurt

Same here, got the mowing finished tonight and have sprinklers running in the yard and flowers. Can’t get anything to move over here, but just circles around. Would love an explanation on why some areas keep getting missed

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Still can’t get squat at the farm, there’s a block and it can’t get past state line. Just dumping to the West of here, but can’t make it east. Yet way east of here big storms, WHAT GIVES?

Kstater
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Kstater

Unless something else forms looks like another miss in Lawrence. They need to share the rain down south! Looks like they may get widespread 3-5 inches.

MattinLeavenworth
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MattinLeavenworth

There is red everywhere

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Looks like it’s gonna do the tongie split.

Bobbie
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Bobbie

Storms are moving in almost every direction and I don’t see any real organization at this moment. I sure hope we get a widespread soaker

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Looks like everything is splitting around JOCO KS.

MattinLeavenworth
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MattinLeavenworth

wow…the radar is alive

Matt
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Matt

Thundering in OP by Lamar Ave and 101st.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

HRRR is really not getting this event at all. HRRR was showing everything passing to our south just on the last run and now it’s flaring up west of Topeka like your model shows it doing at Midnight – but now!

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Particularly for systems like this, I think even the HRRR just identifies a general area where storms should occur, and then create a bunch of random blobs in that area. Often it doesn’t even have storms cells that already exist correctly.

Nick
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Nick

right now there is a little cell that popped up in Doniphan county as if Mother Nature is just throwing some salt into the wound, just dangling that thing right there, still have a little hope for the evening but wow, its like pulling teeth, and the gfs keeps teasing us with forecasting future big rains near by just days away, good news is, no matter what happens, this LRC is already over half over. 😛

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

My goodness it’s just managing to miss the farm one way or another this afternoon, hitting a wall around my area and deflecting to the south every time. My farm has a lid on it, I need a big rain folks! Everybody does practically, good luck guys I hope you get yours

Richard
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Richard

Just saw nice mammatus clouds.
Is that the right word for those cotton ball clouds ?

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I sense a big POOF event in progress. Everything seems to be going south of the city.

DanT
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DanT

Thanks for the update, was thinking Olathe and other areas got missed big time.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

That area in SE KS is just getting tons of rain.

Matt
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Matt

Tornado Warning in Southeast KS,

Mattinleavenworth
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Mattinleavenworth

It was jeff who wrote the blog and it was good.

Richard
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Richard

Sorry I commented to that before I saw yours

Bobbie
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Bobbie

Awesome update Gary thank you

Richard
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Richard

Jeff, not Gary