Morning Thunderstorms Quickly Moving By

/Morning Thunderstorms Quickly Moving By

Morning Thunderstorms Quickly Moving By

Good morning bloggers,

We have morning thunderstorms. They are elevated, but with a few heavy downpours.   The GFS and the HRRR did the best with this mornings thunderstorm activity, so these will be the models of choice in the next few days.  Here is a picture of Sunny the Weather Dog as the thunderstorms were forming. The bases were pretty high up,  around 10,000 feet. These high based thunderstorms were forming on the edge of the capping layer at around that level.

DSCN4946 (1)

After these morning thunderstorms move by, the potential for redevelopment is rather slim. The GFS model does have a few forming this evening. Again, this model is the only model that picked out this mornings activity the past few days, so we will see about the potential this evening near the front, but the HRRR has this:

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The SPC has minimal risks nationwide despite the interesting surface set up. The reason is the fact that the main storm is way out over the western states and it has thrown a ridge over the plains.

Have a great day. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

2018-05-13T15:45:01+00:00 May 11th, 2018|General|22 Comments

22 Comments

  1. Three7s May 11, 2018 at 8:42 am - Reply

    Good to see some rain, but the lightning was a bit more impressive…….

  2. Mr. Pete May 11, 2018 at 8:57 am - Reply

    Was there any rain in Johnson County?

    • Three7s May 11, 2018 at 8:59 am - Reply

      Kansas or Missouri?

      • Mr. Pete May 11, 2018 at 10:28 am - Reply

        KS

    • Three7s May 11, 2018 at 9:03 am - Reply

      It rained on both sides, but I think the Kansas side had a bit more.

  3. George May 11, 2018 at 9:02 am - Reply

    Had a nice gentle rain when I left my house this morning around 8 am. OP 87th & Antioch

  4. REAL HUMEDUDE May 11, 2018 at 10:23 am - Reply

    Picked up a quick downpour at the farm, about 1/3″ of an inch fell in 8 minutes. TWC had zero percent chance for rain until it was actually raining, like I said yesterday, we really don’t know what’s going to happen in the next 24 hours around here in the current weather pattern.

  5. Stl78(winon,mn) May 11, 2018 at 10:38 am - Reply

    It’s miserable up here today. It’s more like fall than spring. Temps in the low 40s with wind and rain….blah! Happy early mother’s day to all mothers whether here on Earth or heaven above!

  6. Kurt May 11, 2018 at 10:51 am - Reply

    It’s miserable here too, but the extreme warmth this time of year, pollen and dust. Picked up 15 or 20 drops this morning with lots of thunder in the distance. We’ll be over 6 inches behind normal year-to-date since and almost that much since March 1st tomorrow so watering will continue for me this weekend.

  7. Gary H May 11, 2018 at 1:18 pm - Reply

    Been very warm here in Auburn, AL in recent days with highs near 90 already and more to come this weekend. Humidity is starting to creep back into these warm days. Next week looks much more active from KC down to the Southeast. As a matter of fact, the last few GFS runs look interesting in regard to a tropical system forming over the Gulf around May 24th and moving north near or into Florida, Georgia. It’s still a ways out there (300+ hours) so much more variation in model run output to be expected, but very interesting nonetheless. Good prediction, Gary and W2020 team, for having this in my 36879 forecast several weeks ago!

    • Three7s May 11, 2018 at 1:26 pm - Reply

      I’m hoping that Hurricane tracks towards us and gives us the remnants. We might be depending on tropical systems a bit this year.

      • JoeK May 11, 2018 at 8:38 pm - Reply

        I am very skeptical of it being hurricane strength once it makes landfall.

  8. Snow Miser May 11, 2018 at 1:23 pm - Reply

    It almost seems like it might rain again this afternoon.

  9. Kurt May 11, 2018 at 1:48 pm - Reply

    The 12Z GFS is really optimistic, 6 to 7 inches of rain for St. Joseph between now and the 27th? The interesting thing is that none is heavy, it’s all just showers. While I’d love that to be reality, very skeptical that it will rain that much.

    • JoeK May 11, 2018 at 3:14 pm - Reply

      Kurt,

      You may remember my post to you on March 26th? I picked out the dates of May 10th-14th and may 16th-20th for your best chances of rain using the LRC. Now it is a waiting game to see if they materialize. Hope you get the moisture

      • Kurt May 11, 2018 at 3:29 pm - Reply

        JoeK, I sure hope so otherwise our proverbial “goose” is cooked without some really decent rain.

  10. Nick May 11, 2018 at 3:36 pm - Reply

    at least it was cloudy for most of the day here in St. Joe so we are a bit cooler, and we officially got .01 inch of rain this morning, lol 😛 I will say that even if we get some rain, to have a front like this in the middle of May practically right on top of us, with 50’s in Southern Iowa and 80’s here( as of the 3 pm metars). to have the rain be limited like it is, is a BIG warning sign( also we are still in Cycle 5 I think so this should be the time where we make hay before we hit cycle 6).

  11. REAL HUMEDUDE May 11, 2018 at 7:40 pm - Reply

    Kurt, GFS isn’t neccessarily modeling showers just because it’s not indicating the yellow and orange hues in the color chart. Any smattering of greens should be interpreted as at least partially convective / thunderstorm type activity. I’m drying out fast down here too, the shower this morning got all absorbed and it was dusty by this afternoon with sunshine and wind

  12. Alex Pickman May 12, 2018 at 12:59 am - Reply

    Hey Gary!!

    Did you see the supercell thunderstorm in the Texas Panhandle today? I had some chaser friends that were on that particular storm, and watching it develop on radar, and seeing their pictures, and live streams was truly fascinating to say the least. I thought it would make an interesting blog entry.

    There is an intense and ongoing wildfire just northwest of Clarendon, Texas…near the town of Goodnight, in the Texas Panhandle. They documented the large smoke plume develop into a pyrocumulus cloud, which then evolved into a pyrocumulonimbis cloud. That stage of development had lightning, but no rain, so I guess you could say it was a “dry Thunderstorm.” That part was fascinating to watch on their live stream, but the real good stuff came after that as that dry thunderstorm, rapidly exploded into a full blown, and dramatically sculpted supercell thunderstorm. It drifted off to the east and northeast and fell apart as it began to move into the far eastern Panhandle, and into western Oklahoma.

    Im sure I could come up with some archived radar loops where you can see the reflectivity explode off of the smoke plume on radar. Would be neat to hear your opinion and possibly the science behind it. I think it would make for a very intriguing blog entry or maybe a video segment in the blog, esp for weather enthusiasts and fellow chasers like myself.

    Stuff like this is why I absolutely love weather/forecasting.

  13. Skylar May 12, 2018 at 7:25 am - Reply

    Got a few tiny hailstones with the thunderstorm this morning. It didn’t last long enough to give us a lot of rain though.

  14. Mr. Pete May 12, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

    Was there any rain in Johnson County KANSAS this AM?

    • Lisa Lu May 12, 2018 at 10:39 am - Reply

      Mr. Pete, there was some brief rain this morning between 7-8am. I’m in OP near 123rd Antioch

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