Dry Fronts

/Dry Fronts

Dry Fronts

Good morning bloggers,

The pattern looks like it should be wet, but instead it continues to be rather dry.  The chance of thunderstorms will increase a little bit after the weekend is over. Between now and then the chances are slight. Take a look at the KC sky this morning:

DSCN4926

These bands of higher and middle clouds, high level altostratus, around 14,000 feet above us this morning, indicate that it will be another dry day.  St. Joseph, MO has had 3.62″ of rain this year which is 38% of the average of 9.41″ by todays date.  The surface set up is rather incredible, when you realize the chance of thunderstorms is around 20% at best:

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This European Model above shows the dry fronts. Oh, there are areas of precipitation mostly over the higher terrain out west and across the northern plains and upper midwest. The region near the fronts, closer to KC, has very warm air aloft building in around 10,000 feet up and this will likely prevent thunderstorms from forming near the fronts.  By Sunday night and Monday the chances of thunderstorms may go up a bit.

Rainfall Forecast from the Euro Model: Next Ten Days

Screen Shot 2018-05-10 at 6.58.56 AM

Let’s see how this pattern evolves.  Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

2018-05-11T07:37:27+00:00 May 10th, 2018|General|26 Comments

26 Comments

  1. Snow Miser May 10, 2018 at 8:11 am - Reply

    Now there’s only 229 days until Christmas.

    I’m ready for snow!

  2. Mr. Pete May 10, 2018 at 8:17 am - Reply

    Where did Spring go?

    • Roger May 10, 2018 at 9:01 am - Reply

      The summertime ridge (both Desert SW and Bermuda), which has been there since October in some form, will continue to get stronger. Notice how this Saturday’s cold front, which was advertised for several days (almost a week) to bring cooler air, is now nonexistent. This will mark the 3rd straight cold front this week that was progged to bring cooler air to be neutral.

    • Bill May 10, 2018 at 9:54 am - Reply

      Exactly…where did Spring go? I was eaten alive by mosquitoes at loose park last night. I’m not ready for summer.

  3. Roger May 10, 2018 at 8:52 am - Reply

    We still have a long way to go to drought relief. Current condition of wheat. According to USDA.
    Poor to very poor:
    Oklahoma: 68%
    Texas: 60%
    Kansas: 50%

    • REAL HUMEDUDE May 10, 2018 at 11:07 am - Reply

      It rained in KS last night Roger, id say things are looking a lot better than Couple weeks ago out there, at least systems are impacting KS to some degree. You are just like my Grandad, he was always saying the word Drought whenever he could fit it in a sentence. No offense intended, some people tend to think drier than others do lol

      • Kurt May 10, 2018 at 2:03 pm - Reply

        I don’t know that it rained where Roger is located, it appeared the bulk of the rains were in the southern counties and southeast Kansas. Not sure why we aren’t at the point of calling this a drought when that’s what this is. It’s not just a dry spell or abnormally dry, it’s on track as a record breaking dry year in some areas. A few weeks of these above normal temps will really take a toll and you’ll see the reds and oranges expand on the drought monitor, or I would think you should.

        • REAL HUMEDUDE May 10, 2018 at 4:04 pm - Reply

          I’m not even close to a drought though, you Def are im not arguing that. Just saying there are plenty increasing for optimism. You just got 2″ of rain Kurt, that’s a good sign. Next week also looks super active, as Gary alluded to the second half of the month has opportunity for big rainfall as looking like a big Low will sit out west and throw chunks of energy at the region for a week straight.

  4. Richard May 10, 2018 at 10:30 am - Reply

    Gary
    Still thinking drought ?

    On another note, the USGS is now thinking that Kilauea might be getting ready to BLOW in the next few weeks.
    Spewing massive boulders. Exploding. That is not typical of Hawaiian volcanoes.
    I wonder if that would eventually affect our atmosphere here on the mainland.
    I think Mt St Helens affected our winter when it blew.
    Do volcanoes affect atmosphere and weather even thousands of miles from the volcano ?

    • REAL HUMEDUDE May 10, 2018 at 10:54 am - Reply

      KS looks better and better I tell ya!
      No mudslides, wildfires, hurricanes or tsnumai!
      Ok, we get grass fires but nothing that consumes communities like out west

    • KS Jones May 10, 2018 at 11:42 am - Reply

      Richard, here’s the answer to your question.
      https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/do-volcanoes-affect-weather?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products
      Do volcanoes affect weather?
      Yes, volcanoes can affect weather and the Earth’s climate. Following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, cooler than normal temperatures were recorded worldwide and brilliant sunsets and sunrises were attributed to this eruption that sent fine ash and gases high into the stratosphere, forming a large volcanic cloud that drifted around the world. The sulfur dioxide (SO2) in this cloud — about 22 million tons — combined with water to form droplets of sulfuric acid, blocking some of the sunlight from reaching the Earth and thereby cooling temperatures in some regions by as much as 0.5 degrees Celsius. An eruption the size of Mount Pinatubo could affect the weather for several years. 
      A similar phenomenon occurred in 1815 with the cataclysmic eruption of Tambora Volcano in Indonesia, the most powerful eruption in recorded history.Tambora’s volcanic cloud lowered global temperatures by as much as 3 degrees Celsius. Even a year after the eruption, most of the northern hemisphere experienced sharply cooler temperatures during the summer months. In parts of Europe and in North America, 1816 was known as “the year without a summer.”
      …….
      The Euro model’s ten-day rainfall prediction appears to a bit over an inch for this location (midway between Marysville & Manhattan), and WeatherUnderground predicts we’ll get 1.55″ in the next ten days. If we do get 1.55″ that would put us slightly above our entire month of May average (and above our YTD average as well), and we’d have another 11 days to go. That said, I don’t have a high degree of confidence in either of those predictions.

      • Richard May 10, 2018 at 3:27 pm - Reply

        KS Jones
        Thanks
        My next question would be, when these eruptions occur, do they alter/influence the LRC….Gary ?

  5. JoeK May 10, 2018 at 11:38 am - Reply

    Gary,
    Looks as though your original concerns of being dry are materializing. Jeff should have listened to you and even I thought these systems would produce during the spring.

    • Bill in Lawrence May 10, 2018 at 2:28 pm - Reply

      JoeK:

      I am right there with you (and to Roger above) !! It is looking more and more like I will have some egg on my face. I have thought we would not be as wet as last year (i.e I doubt my pond gets filled until the next LRC) but we would still be overall okay and have enough to keep us from a 2012 or 1980 (or even 1988) type summer. I also thought that some of these fronts would be strong enough to blow through here in the summer and provide some relief. Of course this could all still work out (see the difference with early to mid cycle 2 with the end of cycle 2 and 3 especially regarding temps. ) but there is no doubt that these past two weeks cannot be just ignored.

      There are so many features in every LRC that must be accounted for that are always there right on time but in one cycle or in different seasons, these features could play havoc with a forecast or with what occurred in a previous cycle. As Roger mentioned, the hints of these ridges have been there in every cycle but the fronts in winter were strong enough……the summer cycles these ridges could very well exert their dominance.

      By the way, very much enjoy your posts!!!!

      Back to research papers…honestly, I’m so lost in the LRC sequence right now that I probably should not be commenting at all LOL!!!

      Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

      • JoeK May 10, 2018 at 5:23 pm - Reply

        Thanks Bill! I really felt these systems would be more organized with available Gulf moisture late spring and while there is still a chance, I am beginning to question whether they will be significant. My comment earlier is that back in February, Gary began expressing concerns ( based on the LRC) that we could toy with dry/drought conditions and looks as though his assessment was correct

        • Gary May 10, 2018 at 10:23 pm - Reply

          One thing for certain, we are “toying” with dry/drought conditions. Now, these next five weeks will tell the tale.

          Gary

  6. Craig May 10, 2018 at 3:00 pm - Reply

    Hi, Gary.
    It looks like the models and the SPC expect a massive MCS across Nebraska tonight.
    What are the chances that thing sends out enough of an outflow boundary that tomorrow’s severe weather risk is shoved south into the metro?

  7. Snow Miser May 10, 2018 at 3:39 pm - Reply

    Do we believe the HRRR that it’s going to rain tomorrow morning?

    I’m wondering if I should water some plants this afternoon.

  8. REAL HUMEDUDE May 10, 2018 at 4:08 pm - Reply

    NWS threw in 50% of storms last night outta nowhere, barley missed the farm but it leads to believe we don’t know what the back is going on right now lol
    Hrrr does show what I believe is outflow driven activity drifting into the area in morning, let’s see if it hangs on to that in next few runs

  9. Richard May 10, 2018 at 6:45 pm - Reply

    These above normal temps started Mon 5/7/18.
    So if we go back 188 days ( 47 days per occurance/cycle) we get Oct 31, Halloween.
    Where did this heat come from ?
    If I remember right, Halloween 2017 was the coldest Halloween on record here.
    Just trying to understand how we go from extreme cold in the first cycle to this today.
    Normal first 90 degree day here is late May.

    • Emaw May 10, 2018 at 8:10 pm - Reply

      Richard,
      I’ve asked questions along these same lines before and the answer is usually “seasonal differrences”, which is reasonable because we all know it’s generally warmer in spring/summer, fine. Here’s the rub, we had an abnormally warm last half of November which never repeated all winter as we were below average temp wise Jan, Feb and April and now we’re running well above average temp wise in May. So in a nutshell great question

      • Emaw May 10, 2018 at 8:12 pm - Reply

        I believe March was below as well and December was right about average.

  10. Mr. Pete May 10, 2018 at 7:40 pm - Reply

    I’m working in Pittsburg this week. Awoke at 3AM to thunder and storms. Rained quite a bit here last night.

  11. snowflakeparkville May 10, 2018 at 9:12 pm - Reply

    What do you think we’re looking at for this summer? I’m hoping to continue the 4th-longest time period without reaching 100F. Currently at 1705 days and counting!

  12. Dave in LS May 10, 2018 at 11:52 pm - Reply

    To believe or not to believe if that MCS makes it to us lol. I’m a believer that we get something in the morning. Maybe .25 inch.

  13. NoBeachHere May 11, 2018 at 6:14 am - Reply

    Nice MCS up north this morning

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