Good morning bloggers,

The pattern looks like it should be wet, but instead it continues to be rather dry.  The chance of thunderstorms will increase a little bit after the weekend is over. Between now and then the chances are slight. Take a look at the KC sky this morning:

DSCN4926

These bands of higher and middle clouds, high level altostratus, around 14,000 feet above us this morning, indicate that it will be another dry day.  St. Joseph, MO has had 3.62″ of rain this year which is 38% of the average of 9.41″ by todays date.  The surface set up is rather incredible, when you realize the chance of thunderstorms is around 20% at best:

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This European Model above shows the dry fronts. Oh, there are areas of precipitation mostly over the higher terrain out west and across the northern plains and upper midwest. The region near the fronts, closer to KC, has very warm air aloft building in around 10,000 feet up and this will likely prevent thunderstorms from forming near the fronts.  By Sunday night and Monday the chances of thunderstorms may go up a bit.

Rainfall Forecast from the Euro Model: Next Ten Days

Screen Shot 2018-05-10 at 6.58.56 AM

Let’s see how this pattern evolves.  Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

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NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

Nice MCS up north this morning

Dave in LS
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Dave in LS

To believe or not to believe if that MCS makes it to us lol. I’m a believer that we get something in the morning. Maybe .25 inch.

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

What do you think we’re looking at for this summer? I’m hoping to continue the 4th-longest time period without reaching 100F. Currently at 1705 days and counting!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I’m working in Pittsburg this week. Awoke at 3AM to thunder and storms. Rained quite a bit here last night.

Richard
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Richard

These above normal temps started Mon 5/7/18.
So if we go back 188 days ( 47 days per occurance/cycle) we get Oct 31, Halloween.
Where did this heat come from ?
If I remember right, Halloween 2017 was the coldest Halloween on record here.
Just trying to understand how we go from extreme cold in the first cycle to this today.
Normal first 90 degree day here is late May.

Emaw
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Emaw

Richard,
I’ve asked questions along these same lines before and the answer is usually “seasonal differrences”, which is reasonable because we all know it’s generally warmer in spring/summer, fine. Here’s the rub, we had an abnormally warm last half of November which never repeated all winter as we were below average temp wise Jan, Feb and April and now we’re running well above average temp wise in May. So in a nutshell great question

Emaw
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Emaw

I believe March was below as well and December was right about average.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

NWS threw in 50% of storms last night outta nowhere, barley missed the farm but it leads to believe we don’t know what the back is going on right now lol
Hrrr does show what I believe is outflow driven activity drifting into the area in morning, let’s see if it hangs on to that in next few runs

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Do we believe the HRRR that it’s going to rain tomorrow morning?

I’m wondering if I should water some plants this afternoon.

Craig
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Craig

Hi, Gary.
It looks like the models and the SPC expect a massive MCS across Nebraska tonight.
What are the chances that thing sends out enough of an outflow boundary that tomorrow’s severe weather risk is shoved south into the metro?

JoeK
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JoeK

Gary,
Looks as though your original concerns of being dry are materializing. Jeff should have listened to you and even I thought these systems would produce during the spring.

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

JoeK: I am right there with you (and to Roger above) !! It is looking more and more like I will have some egg on my face. I have thought we would not be as wet as last year (i.e I doubt my pond gets filled until the next LRC) but we would still be overall okay and have enough to keep us from a 2012 or 1980 (or even 1988) type summer. I also thought that some of these fronts would be strong enough to blow through here in the summer and provide some relief. Of course this could… Read more »

JoeK
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JoeK

Thanks Bill! I really felt these systems would be more organized with available Gulf moisture late spring and while there is still a chance, I am beginning to question whether they will be significant. My comment earlier is that back in February, Gary began expressing concerns ( based on the LRC) that we could toy with dry/drought conditions and looks as though his assessment was correct

Richard
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Richard

Gary
Still thinking drought ?

On another note, the USGS is now thinking that Kilauea might be getting ready to BLOW in the next few weeks.
Spewing massive boulders. Exploding. That is not typical of Hawaiian volcanoes.
I wonder if that would eventually affect our atmosphere here on the mainland.
I think Mt St Helens affected our winter when it blew.
Do volcanoes affect atmosphere and weather even thousands of miles from the volcano ?

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

KS looks better and better I tell ya!
No mudslides, wildfires, hurricanes or tsnumai!
Ok, we get grass fires but nothing that consumes communities like out west

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Richard, here’s the answer to your question. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/do-volcanoes-affect-weather?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products Do volcanoes affect weather? Yes, volcanoes can affect weather and the Earth’s climate. Following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, cooler than normal temperatures were recorded worldwide and brilliant sunsets and sunrises were attributed to this eruption that sent fine ash and gases high into the stratosphere, forming a large volcanic cloud that drifted around the world. The sulfur dioxide (SO2) in this cloud — about 22 million tons — combined with water to form droplets of sulfuric acid, blocking some of the sunlight from reaching the Earth and… Read more »

Richard
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Richard

KS Jones
Thanks
My next question would be, when these eruptions occur, do they alter/influence the LRC….Gary ?

Roger
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Roger

We still have a long way to go to drought relief. Current condition of wheat. According to USDA.
Poor to very poor:
Oklahoma: 68%
Texas: 60%
Kansas: 50%

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

It rained in KS last night Roger, id say things are looking a lot better than Couple weeks ago out there, at least systems are impacting KS to some degree. You are just like my Grandad, he was always saying the word Drought whenever he could fit it in a sentence. No offense intended, some people tend to think drier than others do lol

Kurt
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Kurt

I don’t know that it rained where Roger is located, it appeared the bulk of the rains were in the southern counties and southeast Kansas. Not sure why we aren’t at the point of calling this a drought when that’s what this is. It’s not just a dry spell or abnormally dry, it’s on track as a record breaking dry year in some areas. A few weeks of these above normal temps will really take a toll and you’ll see the reds and oranges expand on the drought monitor, or I would think you should.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

I’m not even close to a drought though, you Def are im not arguing that. Just saying there are plenty increasing for optimism. You just got 2″ of rain Kurt, that’s a good sign. Next week also looks super active, as Gary alluded to the second half of the month has opportunity for big rainfall as looking like a big Low will sit out west and throw chunks of energy at the region for a week straight.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Where did Spring go?

Roger
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Roger

The summertime ridge (both Desert SW and Bermuda), which has been there since October in some form, will continue to get stronger. Notice how this Saturday’s cold front, which was advertised for several days (almost a week) to bring cooler air, is now nonexistent. This will mark the 3rd straight cold front this week that was progged to bring cooler air to be neutral.

Bill
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Bill

Exactly…where did Spring go? I was eaten alive by mosquitoes at loose park last night. I’m not ready for summer.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Now there’s only 229 days until Christmas.

I’m ready for snow!