Good morning bloggers,
A rather fascinating and unique spring pattern continues to affect the United States. The pattern features a developing split flow aloft with the Polar jet stream tracking across southeastern Canada, and a southern branch jet stream carving out a trough over the southwestern United States. Here is a forecast map valid Friday night:
This would usually be a big severe weather set up producer, but we are in the part of the cycling pattern that has featured a storm in each cycle that fell apart and never came out with any strength. The same thing will happen in this cycle. That storm over northern Nevada will likely either spin out west and barely move, or drift farther west and south. This will place a ridging aloft over the plains states and likely limit the severe weather risk. This pattern will also likely throw up a capping layer of warmer air aloft that will also limit the chance of thunderstorms over the dry areas from the Texas Panhandle northeast to KC. This next map shows the surface forecast valid Friday evening:
This is quite an interesting and unique set up for this time of the year. I know I have not quite ever seen anything like it with a front this strong and risks this low in mid-May, but it is what we have this year. The SPC has placed this severe weather risk area near that front on Friday evening.
We will continue to analyze this developing pattern as this sets up in the next few days. What happens after this weekend is what has my attention. The LRC sets up in October and then continues through September. We are in the same pattern that produced only 7.7″ of snow in KC all winter long. The pattern will continue, but the winter version that kicked into gear in late October will be loosening its grip on our dry weather pattern, finally. Last year it got very wet in March and April after a dry winter. This year, it has yet to do so, but we see an opening, a chance that once the flow aloft weakens a bit more, this pattern may actually begin producing more wide spread heavy rainfall in our area before summer gets here. If you remember, KC had 5″ of rain in the first few weeks of this pattern, in the first 30 days after summer ended and fall began. I am expecting the last four to five weeks of spring before summer begins to get wet. The models are still fairly dry over the next seven days, but then something may let loose. Confidence is still shaky here, so let’s see how it all sets up. Either this will happen, or the drought will expand. These next ten days will say a lot. The first half of these next ten days will continue to struggle in the rainfall production, despite so much going on all around us.
Rainfall Forecast Next Ten Days From The GFS Model:
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