It Will Likely Get Wet In The Next Few Weeks

/It Will Likely Get Wet In The Next Few Weeks

It Will Likely Get Wet In The Next Few Weeks

Good morning bloggers,

A rather fascinating and unique spring pattern continues to affect the United States.  The pattern features a developing split flow aloft with the Polar jet stream tracking across southeastern Canada, and a southern branch jet stream carving out a trough over the southwestern United States.  Here is a forecast map valid Friday night:

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This would usually be a big severe weather set up producer, but we are in the part of the cycling pattern that has featured a storm in each cycle that fell apart and never came out with any strength. The same thing will happen in this cycle. That storm over northern Nevada will likely either spin out west and barely move, or drift farther west and south. This will place a ridging aloft over the plains states and likely limit the severe weather risk.  This pattern will also likely throw up a capping layer of warmer air aloft that will also limit the chance of thunderstorms over the dry areas from the Texas Panhandle northeast to KC.  This next map shows the surface forecast valid Friday evening:

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This is quite an interesting and unique set up for this time of the year. I know I have not quite ever seen anything like it with a front this strong and risks this low in mid-May, but it is what we have this year.  The SPC has placed this severe weather risk area near that front on Friday evening.

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We will continue to analyze this developing pattern as this sets up in the next few days.  What happens after this weekend is what has my attention.  The LRC sets up in October and then continues through September. We are in the same pattern that produced only 7.7″ of snow in KC all winter long.  The pattern will continue, but the winter version that kicked into gear in late October will be loosening its grip on our dry weather pattern, finally. Last year it got very wet in March and April after a dry winter. This year, it has yet to do so, but we see an opening, a chance that once the flow aloft weakens a bit more, this  pattern may actually begin producing more wide spread heavy rainfall in our area before summer gets here. If you remember, KC had 5″ of rain in the first few weeks of this pattern, in the first 30 days after summer ended and fall began.  I am expecting the last four to five weeks of spring before summer begins to get wet. The models are still fairly dry over the next seven days, but then something may let loose. Confidence is still shaky here, so let’s see how it all sets up. Either this will happen, or the drought will expand.  These next ten days will say a lot. The first half of these next ten days will continue to struggle in the rainfall production, despite so much going on all around us.

Rainfall Forecast Next Ten Days From The GFS Model:

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Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Let us know if you have any questions by going over to the blog at Weather2020.com.

Gary

2018-05-10T07:17:28+00:00May 9th, 2018|General|15 Comments

15 Comments

  1. Snow Miser May 9, 2018 at 7:44 am - Reply

    Thanks for all your work Gary!

    Some people last night got a good drink, around me it rained sorta hard for about 3 minutes then it stopped.

  2. NoBeachHere May 9, 2018 at 9:10 am - Reply

    Thank you Gary for the write up.

    Those pop up storms last night got us in Liberty a good drink. Looks like Gladstone and points NE of did well also.

    Gary, the pop up storms last night looked as those they were aided in development from the KC heat island effect?
    Any thoughts?

  3. Kurt May 9, 2018 at 10:08 am - Reply

    A shift to wetter weather can’t come soon enough up here in St. Joseph, the pollen is really impacting so many people this year and we need some rains to settle the pollen for a few days. We continue to break records for dryness up here and find ways to avoid any rain:

    Since Jan 1: 3.62 inches and normal is 9.01 inches, a 5.39 inch deficit and 40.2 percent of normal
    Since Mar 1: 2.16 inches and normal is 7.52 inches, a 5.36 inch deficit and 28.7 percent of normal (really started to feel the impact starting with the spring months starting in March). Most places up here saw over half of the year-to-date total from the 2 rain events last week.

    Not sure when farmers will feel time impacts, although grasses appear to be slower to grow this year and not sure if that’s a combination of cooler temps earlier or the lack of rain. At least the rain last week germinated corn that was planted. I do know area ponds are getting lower as well as lakes.

  4. Anonymous by choice May 9, 2018 at 10:19 am - Reply

    That’s funny. One would think that a low spinning out west (and even retrograding) would be a major feature of the LRC. However, it has never been talked about. Probably, because it hasn’t happened the last 6 months. Not sure how this is, “the same, but different”. Appears to this weather enthusiast to be indefensible.

    #WETDROUGHT

  5. Kathy May 9, 2018 at 10:30 am - Reply

    Like some of the others up north, we had a very nice round of thunderstorms and ended up with .6″ in our rain gauge. That puts us at almost three inches in the last two weeks, so I’m not complaining. I do hope we go into a more widespread wetter pattern and that the drought down south contracts even more.

  6. Blue Flash May 9, 2018 at 10:33 am - Reply

    I’m going to be in Ft. Lauderdale in two weeks. The GFS has a 966 mb hurricane making landfall on the Florida east coast on the 23rd! If that isn’t the most far-fetched long range model yet, I don’t know what could be. It will be fun to watch the models, but I expect it to disappear and reappear several times between now and then.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE May 9, 2018 at 11:21 am - Reply

      I saw that too, a dad gum Hurricane in May? Gotta be a glitch in the matrix……

      • Brittany May 9, 2018 at 1:53 pm - Reply

        I mean, doesn’t Hurricane season start in June? It’d be late May if it develops. It probably won’t though!

        • REAL HUMEDUDE May 9, 2018 at 3:03 pm - Reply

          It does start in June, but very rarely does a storm even develop in June, or July for that matter. So May is ridiculously early for tropical development in my opinion. Last run keeps the hurricane but models it on the gulf side vs. Atlantic side. Pretty strong hurricane at that, like a Cat 2. Like you said, prolly will go POOF any run now

  7. Snow Miser May 9, 2018 at 10:52 am - Reply

    There’s only 230 days until Christmas.

    • Brittany May 9, 2018 at 1:54 pm - Reply

      Lol! My friend at work picks on me because I’m counting down until Christmas. We’re almost to June so almost halfway there!!

  8. Richard May 9, 2018 at 4:32 pm - Reply

    Were these above norm temps expected ? I can’t remember.
    Because all winter seems we were below norm.

    • Tdogg May 9, 2018 at 4:51 pm - Reply

      It fits….somehow

      • Richard May 9, 2018 at 6:34 pm - Reply

        Can’t resist can you.
        Do you have any other hobbies or is this the only one.

  9. Nick May 9, 2018 at 10:13 pm - Reply

    When you have a pattern where you are not right under a long term long wave ridge or trough, but rather are in between( like this pattern for our area) it makes it easier for different seasons to “flip” anomolies. the waves in the jet stream repeat, but the jet stream shifts north and weakens as you head towards summer, this year there seems to be a ridge( over all) over the southwest( Drought in Amarillo) and a bigger long term trough to our north and east, during the winter with this pattern and spring the cold air came slamming down and the ridge was suppressed, but now as we are heading near summer it may be that the ridge is able to hold the cold air masses off a bit better and often when there are large cool air masses, IF they don’t quite get to you then you end up being very warm. I am still not sure if we have completely “flipped” but it wouldn’t suprise me if summer is toasty here if that southwest ridge becomes more dominating.

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