It Is Supposed To Rain 1.30″ Per Week In May

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City averages 5.23″ in May and 5.23″ in June.  The wettest 30 days of the year, on average, is from mid-May to mid-June.  We are entering this period of time now. This means that Kansas City should get around 1.30″ every week at this time of the year.  To get to that 1.30″ of rain in this second week of May, we will need a thunderstorm this evening. The chances of any significant thunderstorm activity over the next few days after today seems rather low at the moment.  Oh, there are chances, but this next storm will become positively tilted and stretch out, getting stuck back to the west until it weakens.  As a result we get this rainfall total forecast over the next seven days:

1

Most of Kansas is in the under 1″ range.  One of the chances does arrive this evening:

2

This chance of thunderstorms is between around 6 PM and 10 PM tonight, and then the chance shifts east. A storm approaching now goes from a positive tilt to a negative tilt as it passes by, and then the next storm drops into the west and gets stuck out there for a few days.  This is not good for our rain chances, or for the storm chasers out there.

Todays Video: In this video we look at this current system and the next one dropping into the west

Dates For Severe Weather:

  • April 13-17: Verified
  • April 29-May 4:  Verified
  • Calmer Period May 4 – May 15
  • May 19-20: Forecast related to the April 3rd outbreak
  • End of May-early June: Forecasted

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Have a great day and check out the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Received about .4” of rain just North of Liberty last night.

Kathy
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Kathy

Here in NE Clay County we have been blessed with some heavy rain and thunder tonight. Just kind of came out of nowhere.

Dave in LS
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Dave in LS

Man I hate when these storms go negative tilt right on top of us. So darn close lol

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

Nice T-Storm in Liberty

f00dl3
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f00dl3

3 hours ago the HRRR had thunderstorms at 01 UTC. What happened?

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

You can forget about any rain tonight anywhere near Kansas City if the hrrr model is anywhere near correct we’re not going to see anything remotely near us. I am concerned about this non storm of clouds this is the type of storm we saw often in 2012 came right over us but it was nothing but clouds every time and Virga

Craig
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Craig

brand new update from the SPC: …20Z Update… …Lower/Middle MO Valley… Visible satellite imagery reveals a subtle embedded circulation across central KS. This circulation is on the leading edge of an approaching shortwave trough and both of these features are expected to provide the forcing needed to overcome the convection inhibition downstream. Current motion of this circulation will bring it into the Kansas City area around 01Z and thunderstorm initiation looks unlikely before that time frame. Once initiation does occur, a few isolated storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Don’t venture too far out from the resort……youre not in Kansas anymore if you know what I mean.

Bsmike
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Bsmike

Thanks Rock and Real ….. I was thinking the same just afternoon build ups. If it does we will party inside at the bars 🌴🎉🌦🍹🍻🍸🍷

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

BS Mike. This time of year is the “rainy season” in the Yucatan. That being said, it does not rain all day long. You will have pop up showers that can last anywhere from 5 minutes to a half hour. Sometimes it is light rain, and other times it will be a brief down pour. But then the sun comes back out. If I remember right, it tends to rain overnight and perhaps a brief shower in the morning or maybe in the afternoon. It shouldn’t be a total wash….just be prepared. If you’re going to be out and about,… Read more »

Bsmike
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Bsmike

Gary or anyone who knows….. Wife and I are going to Cancun May 10-15 the long range has 80% chance of rain pretty much everyday. I know it’s tropical like Florida weather but I’m hoping this will not be a washout type scenario. I looked at the models but I’m no pro at looking at them. HELP PLEAESE AND TY.

BSM

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Go to Pivotal weather…..go to GFS map
To the right there is a region button you can play with, you Can actually select central America there and check out exactly what’s going on anywhere in Mexico. It’s too early to have tropical systems, so not thinking you will see co executive washout days but rather afternoon scattered storms like typical tropics get

Michael Garner
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Michael Garner

Gary, I know you just did the spring forecast not too long ago and so this may be to early to ask, but I will ask just in case. When do you anticipate doing a summer forecast? Wandering if you have an opinion on how many 90 degree days we will have, compared to KC average? Or even how many heat waves you think will happen, and how long those heat waves may last, if there is any? Not gonna hold your feet to the fire, just curious as to what you think based upon this year’s 47 day cycle.… Read more »

Mason - Basehor
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Mason - Basehor

Gary —

What do you say to an LRC challenge of sorts?

I think it’d be really cool to see a specific, KC metro forecast for Memorial Day weekend and a second one for Independenxe Day weekend — posted this month — as a way to really see it in action. Way before the models show stuff.

I know the app has general forecasts but those aren’t really very helpful because they’re so broad.

Bsmike
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Bsmike

Gary or anyone who knows….. Wife and I are going to Cancun May 10-15 the long range has 80% chance of rain pretty much everyday. I know it’s tropical like Florida weather but I’m hoping this will not be a washout type scenario. I looked at the models but I’m no pro at looking at them. HELP PLEAESE AND TY.

BSM

Mason - Basehor
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Mason - Basehor

What’s the LRC forecast for Memorial Day weekend in KC?

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Not 100% sure what location you are looking at, Heady says that Monday is one of the higher Severe potentials for entire Spring. A 7/10 on the severe scale, be interesting to see how close he gets to that verifying

Michael Garner
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Michael Garner

Based upon a 47 day cycle, I would guess Memoral Day weeekend (Friday-Monday) will be mainly below average and end above average. Why? April 9, 10, 11 below average (mainly because of lows, but April 10 was way below for the high and low) and then April 11 was way above average. That’s my Holiday Inn guess

Michael Garner
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Michael Garner

I meant April 9 was way below for high and low

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

it would be cool if Gary could make this type of forecast like D. Heady does. Its the same theory, but for whatever reason Gary chooses not to make this type of detailed forecast ( he does the 12 week zip code forecast but I think that’s casting too wide of a net). I implore him to try this next year, as well as identifying and LABELING each and every storm in the cycle. Cycle #1, first storm in is 1-A, the next storm is 1-B, the third storm is 1-C and so on. Cycle #2, it becomes 2-A, 2-B… Read more »

Nate
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Nate

Thanks for that

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

May 19 – of course it will storm. That’s my birthday.

VERNON T. TAGGERT
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VERNON T. TAGGERT

Thanks Gary, starting to make sense.

toothdoc
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toothdoc

As one who has “complained” in the past about the lack of clear, prospective, forecasting using the LRC on this blog I want to thank you for the Severe Weather dates that you listed today. As a weather lover but not a weather scientist I don’t need anything super specific just the general idea of when I should be aware of the active part of the pattern cycling through. That section is great! In all sincerity, thank you for that simple paragraph in the blog – if you could do that monthly even it would be greatly appreciated! Have a… Read more »