It Is Supposed To Rain 1.30″ Per Week In May

/It Is Supposed To Rain 1.30″ Per Week In May

It Is Supposed To Rain 1.30″ Per Week In May

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City averages 5.23″ in May and 5.23″ in June.  The wettest 30 days of the year, on average, is from mid-May to mid-June.  We are entering this period of time now. This means that Kansas City should get around 1.30″ every week at this time of the year.  To get to that 1.30″ of rain in this second week of May, we will need a thunderstorm this evening. The chances of any significant thunderstorm activity over the next few days after today seems rather low at the moment.  Oh, there are chances, but this next storm will become positively tilted and stretch out, getting stuck back to the west until it weakens.  As a result we get this rainfall total forecast over the next seven days:

1

Most of Kansas is in the under 1″ range.  One of the chances does arrive this evening:

2

This chance of thunderstorms is between around 6 PM and 10 PM tonight, and then the chance shifts east. A storm approaching now goes from a positive tilt to a negative tilt as it passes by, and then the next storm drops into the west and gets stuck out there for a few days.  This is not good for our rain chances, or for the storm chasers out there.

Todays Video: In this video we look at this current system and the next one dropping into the west

Dates For Severe Weather:

  • April 13-17: Verified
  • April 29-May 4:  Verified
  • Calmer Period May 4 – May 15
  • May 19-20: Forecast related to the April 3rd outbreak
  • End of May-early June: Forecasted

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Have a great day and check out the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

2018-05-10T07:17:05+00:00 May 8th, 2018|General|25 Comments

25 Comments

  1. toothdoc May 8, 2018 at 7:48 am - Reply

    As one who has “complained” in the past about the lack of clear, prospective, forecasting using the LRC on this blog I want to thank you for the Severe Weather dates that you listed today. As a weather lover but not a weather scientist I don’t need anything super specific just the general idea of when I should be aware of the active part of the pattern cycling through. That section is great! In all sincerity, thank you for that simple paragraph in the blog – if you could do that monthly even it would be greatly appreciated! Have a great day.

  2. VERNON T. TAGGERT May 8, 2018 at 7:49 am - Reply

    Thanks Gary, starting to make sense.

  3. Mr. Pete May 8, 2018 at 8:30 am - Reply

    May 19 – of course it will storm. That’s my birthday.

  4. REAL HUMEDUDE May 8, 2018 at 8:51 am - Reply

    it would be cool if Gary could make this type of forecast like D. Heady does. Its the same theory, but for whatever reason Gary chooses not to make this type of detailed forecast ( he does the 12 week zip code forecast but I think that’s casting too wide of a net). I implore him to try this next year, as well as identifying and LABELING each and every storm in the cycle. Cycle #1, first storm in is 1-A, the next storm is 1-B, the third storm is 1-C and so on. Cycle #2, it becomes 2-A, 2-B , 2-C and so on. This will help either prove or disprove the durability and reliability of the LRC in a quantifiable metric we actually grade. Just my 2 Cents, have a good one folks.

    LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

    Next Week: A warm start to the week and fairly warm through the week. Chances for scattered showers on Sunday, then thunderstorms on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. A little cooler heading into the weekend. Severe weather index: This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1 on Tuesday, 2 on Wednesday and Thursday.

    May 13th-19th: A warm week with chances for thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. A little cooler through the middle of the week with warm temperatures returning late in the week with scattered storms on Friday. Severe weather index: This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. A 1 for Mothers Day, 6 on Monday, 7 on Tuesday, 2 on Friday.

    May 20th-26th: Warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Monday. A little cooler for the middle of the week with hot temperatures working in for Memorial weekend. Severe weather index: This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 4 on Monday, 2 on Friday and Saturday.

    May 27th-June 2nd: Showers and thunderstorms with two system from Sunday through Thursday. These will most likely be severe. Warm most of the week. Severe weather index: This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 4 on Sunday, 7 Monday, 2 Tuesday, 6 Wednesday and a 3 on Thursday.

    June 3rd-9th: A hot start to the week with a few scattered storms on Monday and Tuesday. Staying warm to hot with additional thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. Severe weather index: This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 2 on Monday, 3 on Friday and a 5 on Saturday.

    June 10th-16th: A mild start to the week with a quick warm up for the middle of the week. Hot temperatures for the middle of the week and returning to mild by the weekend. Thunderstorms chances on Sunday and Thursday, besides that the week will be mainly dry. Severe weather index: This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 2 on Sunday, 2 on Thursday.

    June 17th-23rd: Mainly a warm week with hot temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. Thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday, then another system on Friday and Saturday. Severe weather index: This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 2 on Tuesday, 4 on Wednesday, then a 2 on Friday.

    • Nate May 8, 2018 at 9:09 am - Reply

      Thanks for that

    • Gary May 8, 2018 at 10:11 am - Reply

      Real, but we do have this out, and it isn’t in a blog like Dougs. It goes out to millions of people every day on the 1Weather app.

      These are still forecasts we make 12 weeks in advance. Doug does make his forecasts, and he is working with Weather2020. But, it still may vary from my thoughts a bit. We are mostly on the same page, however, as we discuss the pattern in weekly conversations.

      Gary

  5. Mason - Basehor May 8, 2018 at 10:26 am - Reply

    What’s the LRC forecast for Memorial Day weekend in KC?

    • REAL HUMEDUDE May 8, 2018 at 11:16 am - Reply

      Not 100% sure what location you are looking at, Heady says that Monday is one of the higher Severe potentials for entire Spring. A 7/10 on the severe scale, be interesting to see how close he gets to that verifying

    • Michael Garner May 8, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply

      Based upon a 47 day cycle, I would guess Memoral Day weeekend (Friday-Monday) will be mainly below average and end above average. Why? April 9, 10, 11 below average (mainly because of lows, but April 10 was way below for the high and low) and then April 11 was way above average. That’s my Holiday Inn guess

      • Michael Garner May 8, 2018 at 11:23 am - Reply

        I meant April 9 was way below for high and low

  6. Bsmike May 8, 2018 at 11:23 am - Reply

    Gary or anyone who knows….. Wife and I are going to Cancun May 10-15 the long range has 80% chance of rain pretty much everyday. I know it’s tropical like Florida weather but I’m hoping this will not be a washout type scenario. I looked at the models but I’m no pro at looking at them. HELP PLEAESE AND TY.

    BSM

  7. Mason - Basehor May 8, 2018 at 11:32 am - Reply

    Gary —

    What do you say to an LRC challenge of sorts?

    I think it’d be really cool to see a specific, KC metro forecast for Memorial Day weekend and a second one for Independenxe Day weekend — posted this month — as a way to really see it in action. Way before the models show stuff.

    I know the app has general forecasts but those aren’t really very helpful because they’re so broad.

  8. Michael Garner May 8, 2018 at 11:38 am - Reply

    Gary, I know you just did the spring forecast not too long ago and so this may be to early to ask, but I will ask just in case. When do you anticipate doing a summer forecast? Wandering if you have an opinion on how many 90 degree days we will have, compared to KC average? Or even how many heat waves you think will happen, and how long those heat waves may last, if there is any? Not gonna hold your feet to the fire, just curious as to what you think based upon this year’s 47 day cycle. I’m hoping for some frequent cold fronts, as it did seem like in the fall and winter we did have some good cold fronts even if we didn’t get the moisture. Without saying who, there is one local guy who puts out his forecast and claims to be right 83% of the time. I don’t think he is but you can make numbers true depending upon how you spin them. Anyways he is predicting June 18-30 being a stretch that would be 95 or higher (so a heat wave) with 9 of the 13 days being 100+. So I have marked the calendar to see if he sticks to the forecast or if major changes are made the day or two before. Thank you sir!

  9. Bsmike May 8, 2018 at 12:28 pm - Reply

    Gary or anyone who knows….. Wife and I are going to Cancun May 10-15 the long range has 80% chance of rain pretty much everyday. I know it’s tropical like Florida weather but I’m hoping this will not be a washout type scenario. I looked at the models but I’m no pro at looking at them. HELP PLEAESE AND TY.

    BSM

    • REAL HUMEDUDE May 8, 2018 at 1:28 pm - Reply

      Go to Pivotal weather…..go to GFS map
      To the right there is a region button you can play with, you Can actually select central America there and check out exactly what’s going on anywhere in Mexico. It’s too early to have tropical systems, so not thinking you will see co executive washout days but rather afternoon scattered storms like typical tropics get

  10. Rockdoc May 8, 2018 at 1:36 pm - Reply

    BS Mike. This time of year is the “rainy season” in the Yucatan. That being said, it does not rain all day long. You will have pop up showers that can last anywhere from 5 minutes to a half hour. Sometimes it is light rain, and other times it will be a brief down pour. But then the sun comes back out. If I remember right, it tends to rain overnight and perhaps a brief shower in the morning or maybe in the afternoon. It shouldn’t be a total wash….just be prepared. If you’re going to be out and about, like down in Playa Del Carmen or in Cancun town, take a couple of those small umbrellas with you. It will be hot and pretty humid too. Don’t forget to pack bug spray! You most likely will need to check a bag for the bug spray since it is bigger than 3 oz size. There are Walmarts there too, so if you don’t want to do checked bags, you can always go there. Have fun, and have a margarita for me too 🙂

  11. Bsmike May 8, 2018 at 2:04 pm - Reply

    Thanks Rock and Real ….. I was thinking the same just afternoon build ups. If it does we will party inside at the bars 🌴🎉🌦🍹🍻🍸🍷

  12. REAL HUMEDUDE May 8, 2018 at 3:10 pm - Reply

    Don’t venture too far out from the resort……youre not in Kansas anymore if you know what I mean.

  13. Craig May 8, 2018 at 3:13 pm - Reply

    brand new update from the SPC:

    …20Z Update…

    …Lower/Middle MO Valley…
    Visible satellite imagery reveals a subtle embedded circulation
    across central KS. This circulation is on the leading edge of an
    approaching shortwave trough and both of these features are expected
    to provide the forcing needed to overcome the convection inhibition
    downstream. Current motion of this circulation will bring it into
    the Kansas City area around 01Z and thunderstorm initiation looks
    unlikely before that time frame. Once initiation does occur, a few
    isolated storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are
    possible.

  14. REAL HUMEDUDE May 8, 2018 at 5:26 pm - Reply

    You can forget about any rain tonight anywhere near Kansas City if the hrrr model is anywhere near correct we’re not going to see anything remotely near us. I am concerned about this non storm of clouds this is the type of storm we saw often in 2012 came right over us but it was nothing but clouds every time and Virga

  15. f00dl3 May 8, 2018 at 5:28 pm - Reply

    3 hours ago the HRRR had thunderstorms at 01 UTC. What happened?

  16. NoBeachHere May 8, 2018 at 9:02 pm - Reply

    Nice T-Storm in Liberty

  17. Dave in LS May 8, 2018 at 9:23 pm - Reply

    Man I hate when these storms go negative tilt right on top of us. So darn close lol

  18. Kathy May 8, 2018 at 9:53 pm - Reply

    Here in NE Clay County we have been blessed with some heavy rain and thunder tonight. Just kind of came out of nowhere.

  19. Hockeynut69 May 9, 2018 at 6:33 am - Reply

    Received about .4” of rain just North of Liberty last night.

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