Some Big Changes Are Showing Up

Good morning bloggers,

The sun is shining on this Friday morning.  A storm system is approaching. And, the jet stream is showing a major shift to the north in the next few days. This northward shift would finally get winter to move out! It has been a long and cold April so far for many of us, and I have been hearing about it. “Why is it so cold?” is what I keep hearing.  Well, we are about to balance it out just a bit.  This next storm is caught in the change, and KC has been on the edge of the model output precipitation, if you have been paying close attention. Just a slight shift north and then suddenly we would be in the rain shield for Saturday. When you are on the edge of the storm, then it is the hardest area to predict the weather, and KC is likely on the edge of more storm systems than most areas of the world.  It is just a geographical fact of where KC is located, and this storm fits the mold.

1

This map above shows the latest GFS model from the overnight run. You can see the northern edge near KC. Some of the drought areas to our southwest will likely get a good drink of water, but they will need more. Here is the upper level flow forecast:

2

The track of this storm shifted a bit north.  This should bring the rain into KC, and create the conditions for our fourth straight bad weather weekend in Kansas City.  So, enjoy today, as it will be a gorgeous Friday.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny! A gorgeous day with light winds and a high of 64°
  • Tonight:  Increasing clouds with a good chance of rain along and south of I-70 by morning.   Low:  43°
  • Saturday:  Cloudy with a 90% chance of rain south of I-70, and a nearly 0% chance up near the Iowa border. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s where its raining.
  • Sunday:  The rain may wrap in from the southeast around the exiting storm and then it will end. High: upper 50s to lower 60s.

I had a flood last night. Yep, I left the bathtub running while I was watching the new Netflix series, episode 1, of Lost In Space. And, disaster. So, I had a flood last night, but I can’t do anything about it now.  It’s time to call the insurance company. Have a great day!

Gary

Share this post with your friends

37
Leave a Reply

avatar
27 Comment threads
10 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
20 Comment authors
RichardHeat MiserKcteachKurtEmaw Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

A whole buttload of rain heading in to KC

Richard
Guest
Richard

Not

Kcteach
Guest
Kcteach

We really enjoyed you coming out to our elementary school today. The kids really enjoyed the story and your sound effect of lightning. Your dog was so sweet. She was very good and performed her tricks even though she was a little nervous. I had a few kids say they want to be meteorologists.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I was out doing some weeding, weeds thrive no matter how dry and the top two to three inches of soil is like powder, never seen anything like it, and you dig and dig and nothing but dry

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Do I smell Jack Squat in the air?

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

HRRR is now going POOF!

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

We need zonal flow baby!

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Kurt, I have to correct you on the NW flow, it definitely allows cold and wind to come thru everywhere without fail! Haha hope we all get a soaker tomorrow at least it’s not going to snow.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

How true cold and windy

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Most forecast only give St Joseph s few hundredths at best and GFS has been consistent last 4 runs that we aren’t turning wet into the first week of May. I really think the drought is going to worsen if we can’t get a pattern shift with gulf moisture.

This northwest flow doesn’t seem to allow anything to come through at least here.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Amarillo is getting heavy thunderstorms! They need it!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

comment image

Richard
Guest
Richard

Looks impressive. But….
there’s always a but for St. Joe.
Hope it happens for Kurt

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I’m noticing the radar looks nothing like what even the HRRR says the radar *should* look like right now. There’s 2 bands of rain over the Texas panhandle even though the HRRR says those aren’t supposed to be showing up for, like, another 4-5 hours.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Oh but the HRRR is always the most accurate. Don’t knock on the HRRR!

Seriously though I totally agree – it overdoes convection and convective elements – was bad at this this winter.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

HRRR shows the whole metro, even St. Joe & MO/IA border getting a good soaking from thunderstorms. Hope it’s right!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

More like cold rain showers IMO, but Amarillo looks like it gets blasted by nice line of storms in a couple of hours. I’m pulling for that entire region, they need a break in a bad way.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Tower collapse yesterday This from Fox5 Springfield MO facebook page “With the collapse of the KOZK tower in Fordland, National Weather Service Weather radio in Springfield and surrounding areas will be off-air until further notice. There are several other transmitters across the Ozarks that you may be able to pick up. It may take trial and error with your radio to find a usable channel. However, if you live in Greene, Webster, or Wright counties, no alerts will be received even if you can get another signal. You will still receive wireless emergency alerts on newer smartphones in the event… Read more »

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

Where’d the severe storm setup go for next weekend?

Roger
Guest
Roger

Oklahoma and Kansas both have not reported a tornado yet this year. Only 4 times in Kansas history has a tornado not occurred by April 30. Oklahoma’s latest date for a tornado is April 26. This is incredible and earth shattering!

Roger
Guest
Roger

I should say records began in 1950 for these statistics.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

12Z run looks pretty sad for total precip in my area through May 5th, approaching a 4 inch year to date deficit and it will really start growing as we are no into the wetter months. Looks pretty grim unless a front stalls or one of these systems is a direct target on any given area.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

I’m sure he makes a healthy salary so it won’t be a big deal.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Saw your facebook and then heard you scold Nate for telling it on radio.
Gary, you already told the world on facebook !
So 30 min of water running in upstairs bathtub, overflows downstairs ?
Mess. Big mess

Richard
Guest
Richard

Oh, and your house is up for sale. Hope damage is not too bad.

Hope we do get some rain tomorrow.
Looks like you still have concerns about drought though, as you saud on the video yesterday.
I did not see the special last night.

Alex Pickman
Guest
Alex Pickman

I’m sure everything is fine with his house. Probably called in clean up pros and got it taken care of quick and easy. Temporary mess

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

I would not wish water or fire damage on anyone. It is a pain to deal with and depending on extent of damage, it can be costly as well. Best of luck getting it taken care of. Time to install a tv in bathroom so you can chill in bath and watch tv, but not too close to the water, electrocution is bad thing. I am hoping for a dry weekend due to six soccer games. During the week would be better please.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Gary – just pull up your carpets from the tack strip, get some fans and it will dry out. If it was clean water it wont do hardly anything if it gets dried up quickly. If it leaked onto the sheetrock ceiling floor below and leaves a little stain , still no big deal, just killz it and your done. As long as it was wet for really long time it wont mold or anything. I’ve done something similar in my house and its not big deal to cleanup long as its done quickly and water isn’t allowed to sit… Read more »

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Gary, I was unable to watch the special on spring weather and what your spring forecast is. I see that the Storm Special is loaded up on the web site, however, it is on mute so I cannot listen to it. Clicking on the “speaker” button does nothing. Perhaps someone at the station can take it off mute? I do hope the mini flood is not as bad as it sounds. This almost sounds like one of those insurance commercials on Tv with the water cascading down the stairs into the hallway or living room….hope this was not the case…..:(… Read more »

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Gary, I’ll Drive down from MN to repair your damage if u make this snow disappear by day’s end! Deal?

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

What the heck is a “rain shield?” Yep, Gary my kids have “flooded” our home doing the same damn thing. I feel your pain….

Pete

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

A rain shield is just a blob of rain really. Like an MCS.

Kathy
Guest
Kathy

Oh Gary, I can only imagine the yelling match that would occur between my DH if I did something like that, so I hope yours was more understanding and forgiving. Obviously, that episode of Lost in Space must have really been an attention-grabber to make you forget something like that. I am north of I-70 by about 15 miles, so it will be interesting to see if I get nothing, a little, or something measurable this weekend. Could really use something in my rain gauge.

NoSnowflake
Guest
NoSnowflake

Well, at least one part of Johnson County got some much-needed moisture.

I digress…

Any chance I can view the spring forecast online anywhere?

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Gary,
Sorry to hear about your flood! That sucks! Hope it cleans up OK. Have a great weekend bloggers!
Michael

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Since the 6z GFS run yesterday showing the severe weather outbreak next Friday, every model since has had nothing. Will be interesting to see how much it fluctuates in the next week.

DanT
Guest
DanT

Wow Gary! How much damage was caused by your flood?