A Dry Storm For KC

/A Dry Storm For KC

A Dry Storm For KC

Good morning,

This wild April continues! I hope everyone is having a great start to this Tuesday.  As we go about our busy days, we have this storm to track. It is a dry storm for Kansas City, but anything but dry for areas just around a half state to the north.  Take a look at this surface forecast map valid at 3 PM this afternoon:

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A rather strong surface cyclone will be developing as an upper level storm intensifies over the Rocky Mountains and tracks over the western plains tonight. As this system tracks east, heavy snow will be developing over the states just north of KC. This would normally be a major severe weather producer, and this storm does not lack low level moisture.

day1otlk_1300From the Storm Prediction Center:  NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST:  Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated through early Wednesday.  Thunderstorm potential will be minimal across the United States today. A couple of late afternoon thunderstorms might form in the central high plains/Black Hills vicinity where scant buoyancy could develop near an eastward-ejecting shortwave trough.  Greater likelihood will exist for isolated thunderstorms across the Mid-Missouri Valley tonight into early Wednesday. Here, strong forcing for ascent via low-level warm air advection and mid-level divergence should overcome robust convective inhibition and yield a few thunderstorms along the northern periphery of the Great Plains cap.  Small hail might accompany the strongest updrafts as CAPE will probably remain weak where parcels can freely convect.

So, a thunderstorm is not out of the question, and a few may form. What is fascinating, and this has happened several times in this years LRC, is that the heavier rain and possible thunderstorms that do form this evening just to our northwest, will then track into the colder air and turn into heavy snow. This actually happened in Green Bay a couple of days ago and this is how they had their second biggest snowstorm in their recorded history at just under 24″.

On that surface map, the red line is the warm front, and the yellow line is the dry line.  The warm front is a big factor for KC’s weather today.  South of the front it will reach into the 80s with dew points in the 60s. North of the front bands of clouds will likely form and it will stay in the 50s near KC. The warm front may pass through this evening and we would then have a temperature jump and humidity increase for a few hours before the cold front moves through by early Wednesday. This is just a fascinating storm to track today, but it is a dry storm for KC.  Could we see a rain shower? Sure we may, but that would be it, a five minute rain shower and that is a big maybe, so I have kept the chance under 10%.

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NWS

The NWS tweeted out this graphic above. Three of the coldest April high temperatures ever have happened in 2018. April 1 and 2 came in at 33 and 34 degrees respectively, and the fifth coldest high temperature in April Kansas City recorded history happened on Sunday with a high of 31°. That record really stands out as it may have come in fifth, but it was the latest date by 6 days, and it broke the record by TEN degrees. I am not sure how many times a record gets broken by 10, but it has to be a very rare event.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  This is an interesting and quite difficult forecast. The models that form no clouds (RUC) have highs near 70 degrees in KC this afternoon. There is a strong warm front forming and approaching, but it will stay south of KC all day. So, I am expecting the cloudless models to be wrong and I am forecasting a high near 60°.  Expect east winds at 5-15 mph increasing.
  • Tonight:  The warm front may briefly move through with temperatures near 60 if that happens. The wind will shift to the west and northwest and become gusty by morning. Low:  43°
  • Wednesday:  Partly cloudy, windy, and colder. High:  53°
  • Looking ahead:  A weekend storm will be approaching, but this system has been trending farther and farther south. Kansas City appears to be on the north side of what may be a rather wet storm.  Some models have no rain at all. This has been the trend. If it were a snowstorm, we would have already discussed possible high accumulations, only to be left disappointed once again.

Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather 2020 blog by clicking here and join in the conversation:  Weather2020 Blog

Have a great day!

Gary

2018-04-18T07:41:03+00:00 April 17th, 2018|General|27 Comments

27 Comments

  1. Mr. Pete April 17, 2018 at 8:38 am - Reply

    Today looks like the warmest day until next week.

    • Three7s April 17, 2018 at 8:39 am - Reply

      And if the models are pointing us in the right direction, next week should be the end of these winter temps.

  2. Craig April 17, 2018 at 8:38 am - Reply

    Can you even imagine the mania and hysteria if KC had broken the record HIGH by 10 degrees…that the high on Sunday had been 102 versus the record of 92.
    The sky would be falling and The End would be near.

    • Gary April 17, 2018 at 10:24 am - Reply

      Craig,

      If the record high is 92 degrees, and it would reach 102, that would also be incredible. For example, the hottest April temperature ever recorded was 95 degrees on April 29, 1910. So, if it would get up to 105 degrees on an April day, then it would be just about as incredible of what we just experienced. It isn’t a ho hum record.

      Gary

      • Craig April 17, 2018 at 1:28 pm - Reply

        I agree, Gary. Smashing a record by 10 degrees is a very rare event.
        My point is that breaking it by 10 degrees to the downside no more indicates a new ice age any more than breaking it 10 degrees to the upside indicates global warming.
        Perhaps wild temperature anomalies are evidence of a wider climatological change. Perhaps not. However, I think we can all agree that the politicians, celebrities and the media would be running wild if the story was about a record-breaking heat wave versus a record-breaking cold snap.

        • Craig April 17, 2018 at 1:29 pm - Reply

          And my apologies for making what would appear to be “political” comments on this blog.
          Will stick to the weather going forward.

  3. Kurt April 17, 2018 at 8:58 am - Reply

    One storm misses St. Joseph to the north and the next misses St. Joseph to the south. If not for the cooler temps we would really be in bad shape up here, if we start getting highs in the 70s and 80s and staying so dry I don’t see how this won’t impact the growing season up here. It’s very frustrating to see these storms miss our area that really needs the rain.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 17, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

      Yeah Kurt, this weekends storm was one I had big hopes for your area to get a big drink. Looking like a miss for you, but western and central KS should get a pretty nice rain out of this. So some of the dry places should get a break, and once we finally get thunderstorms to form around here when we get warm and humid at some point, you should start rapidly improving up north. Been such a slow start to thunderstorm season around here, this storm today SHOULD be producing something, why isn’t the warm front developing storms? Seems like something is off more often than not…… but there is a bright side. Models are depicting a active SW flow setting up later next week with multiple disturbances rotating through every 6-12 hours. Might finally break the ice on that event, similar to late February when I got about 4″ in that last week.

      • Three7s April 17, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

        I really believe that when the warmer temps set in, we’ll have storms. That’s the only reason the system coming in now isn’t a big producer. Just gotta be patient.

      • Snow Miser April 17, 2018 at 11:30 am - Reply

        Discouraging looking at the latest model runs, dry for the next week+. I missed out on the rains Friday and my yard needs a drink!

  4. Kurt April 17, 2018 at 12:25 pm - Reply

    I hope these last few runs of the GFS aren’t correct on where the heaviest QPF is falling, we really need these rains up in NE KS and NW Missouri, we are now 3 inches behind year-to-date with just over 2 inches in 4 months (that’s incredible if we stay on this course of roughly 35% of average we’d only be talking about 13 inches of precip this year). And that’s on top of the 10 inch plus deficit in 2017. Really frustrating and the only drink that our yards will get is going to be water from sprinklers.

    • Roger April 17, 2018 at 1:03 pm - Reply

      I couldn’t agree more Kurt. 10-14 inch deficits in central Kansas too in the last 12 months.

      • REAL HUMEDUDE April 17, 2018 at 1:43 pm - Reply

        Your about to get rain this weekend though, and if this SW flow sets up with better moisture supply and more of anconvective element, all of your deficits will be quickly erased. It takes thunderstorms to get out of droughts, and we have been lacking them so far this year. It’s a VERY SLOW start to thunderstorm season.

  5. Anonymous by choice April 17, 2018 at 1:53 pm - Reply

    Mower Mike says there is no drought. All others are wrong. #WETDROUGHT

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 17, 2018 at 3:19 pm - Reply

      There certainly isn’t a drought around immediate metro, MMIKE is spot on there. Weekend storm even looks to give Amarillo a good rain, so the droughts might be in jeopardy out that way. Especially if the second half of GFS is even remotely correct, entire region will be soaking wet by May if so.

    • JoeK April 17, 2018 at 4:49 pm - Reply

      You must work for the media as you have cherry picked Mike’s statement. That is not what he has stated and definitely has not denied areas to the North and West are experiencing a drought.A very small percentage of Missouri is considered abnormally dry and even smaller portion is in a moderate drought. Very little of KC metro is dry. Obviously, Kansas is hard hit and the NW corner of Missouri is dry. Mike was specifically addressing KC area in response to the drought talk that happens every year. #facttwisting

  6. Stl78(winon,mn) April 17, 2018 at 2:05 pm - Reply

    What’s your obsession with Mike? Let it go my friend!

  7. Stl78(winon,mn) April 17, 2018 at 5:12 pm - Reply

    Thankfully up here they have downgraded us from the winter storm watch to a winter weather advisory for 3 to 6 instead of 5 to 8 🙂

  8. Emaw April 17, 2018 at 5:14 pm - Reply

    We’re starting to get a little dry at the surface again and some more rain would be nice. But I dug and transplanted some ornamental grasses today and the soil moisture wasn’t bad. Here’s a good link.
    https://www.agweb.com/mobile/weather/soil-moisture/

  9. Stl78(winon,mn) April 17, 2018 at 5:30 pm - Reply

    Good link, what kind of grass?

  10. Stl78(winon,mn) April 17, 2018 at 6:05 pm - Reply

    Mr. Pete, if u r around, recent models have brought some snow into the Des Moines area.

    • Mr. Pete April 17, 2018 at 8:50 pm - Reply

      I’m around, I have to drive up there in the AM. Probably arrive in the noon time frame. What are they saying as far as possible accumulations?

      • Stl78(winon,mn) April 17, 2018 at 8:59 pm - Reply

        Doesn’t look to b an issue but maybe an inch or so accumulation. Most likely on grass IMHO. Temps look to b in the mid 30s but rain and or snow look likely around your arrival timeline

        • Stl78(winon,mn) April 17, 2018 at 9:04 pm - Reply

          Fwiw Pete..models have been trending south so it is worth watching.

          • Mr. Pete April 17, 2018 at 10:26 pm - Reply

            Thanks STL!

  11. Emaw April 17, 2018 at 6:24 pm - Reply

    Stl, switchgrass, not sure what variety because I didn’t plant it. Hope warmer days find you guys soon up there, this is getting stupid.

  12. Stl78(winon,mn) April 17, 2018 at 9:01 pm - Reply

    Thx emaw! I’m not too familiar with switch grass.

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