Severe Thunderstorm Risk Today

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3:30 PM Update:

Tornado Watch!

1

A tornado watch was issued, and is in effect until 9 PM.  Let’s track this area of thunderstorms that formed early.  Will there be more development later?

Previous Entry Below:

Good morning bloggers,

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms today. We always have to pay close attention to these risks. Tornadoes kill, and it is something that should never be taken lightly. At the same time, tornadoes are small and I am not sure what the percentage of people that live near KC has ever even seen one tornado, but it may be much lower than you would think. I am going to guess that it is around 10 to 25 percent at the most. Jeff Penner has never seen one and he is 47 years old, born and raised in KC. I have only seen one, and that was in Sitka, KS on a wild tornado chase in 1999.  At the same time 75 tornadoes happen annually in Kansas and around 45 in Missouri, so they will happen, but they just are so small that if you are not near one, you may never see one.  Again, they are deadly, and very scary for so many, unless you are a storm chasing.

The Set-Up:

Screen Shot 2018-04-13 at 6.54.59 AM

These two maps are the same one. I just circled the area to monitor for development. Usually thunderstorms will break through the cap and then we have a few supercells and it could be very bad with all types of severe weather possible. Sometimes, nothing forms at all in these set ups in this region I have circled. The short range models have not been able to break the cap and it is something to monitor. Well, of course we will be very closely.

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Now to 4 PM: Periods of clouds with a chance of a few weak showers or thunderstorms this morning.  The chance of measurable rain is 40% mostly along and southeast of I-35.  High:  78°
  • 4 PM to 10 PM:  There is a 30% chance of a severe thunderstorm at any one location. The risk would last for around 30 minutes if thunderstorms form.
  • Friday Night: Partly cloudy with the wind shifting to the west and northwest.  Turning colder and windy conditions continuing.  Low:  45°
  • Saturday:Periods of clouds and colder with a 20% chance of showers. High:  51°
  • Saturday night and Sunday:Cloudy with a few snowflakes or raindrops possible in the morning. The chance of measurable precipitation is just 20%. High:  45°]

Severe Weather Risk:

3

This is a rather strong upper level storm as you can see above. For it to snow in KC, we would need that upper low to track south  or just east of KC. If it tracks north or northeast of KC we will not see more than a few rain drops of snowflakes on the back side Saturday night and Sunday.

There is a lot to monitor today.  Forecasting the weather in KC is once again quite challenging.  Let’s see how it comes together later today.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the blog on Weather2020.com to join in the conversation as we track this together.

Have a great day!

Gary

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GeorgeRogerRichardSpringless in KCKurt Recent comment authors
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George
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George

Getting sleet right now here in OP 87th & Antioch

Richard
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Richard

Sound familiar ?
4/14/2014 ( 4 yrs ago today) it snowed here. And 2 days before that we hit 80.

Springless in KC
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Springless in KC

What the heck happened to the 7 day forecast between 6:30 PM yesterday and this morning? Last evening showed a crappy weekend, cool Monday, then a nice week with sunshine and low 70s. This morning, it changed significantly, with windy and cool conditions after Tuesday. Next Friday’s forecast went from 68 to low 50s. What changed so much in 12 hours? The weather in this town might be interesting and fascinating for the meteorologists, but it sure does suck for doing anything outdoors. If it isn’t cool and cloudy, it’s warm and blustery. It’s impossible to warm up around here… Read more »

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

At 10pm, Gary said on the air that a inch of snow is possible for KC Sat night.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

BAH! That line of storms that was making a beeline toward me suddenly went POOF just as it got close. 🙁 My plants could use some rain.

Kurt
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Kurt

Big surprise just a brief shower less than 1/10 of an inch, extremely dry weather continues

Roger
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Roger

It sucks. But not unexpected.

Kurt
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Kurt

What aggravates me is the hype about how stormy it is, when I really think the reality of a drought is being ignored or severally underplayed. I’m more concerned about agricultural interests, crops, livestock and hay. But for me, I am not at all encouraged to attempt a garden or plant annuals this year and I don’t think people realize how potentially bad this could be. Yes I’ll be plastered as doom and gloom, but only 2 inches of total QPF 3 1/2 months into the year, yikes is this going to be one of the driest years on record… Read more »

f00dl3
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f00dl3

(CAP v1.2) Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement issued April 13 at 9:28PM CDT by NWS North Platte NE At 928 PM CDT radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 miles northwest of Rose to near Brewster. Movement was west at 10 mph. Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with these storms. Locations impacted include… Raven Hawley Flats Willow Lake State Wildlif… It’s 22 degrees there right now. WTF??! (CAP v1.2) Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement issued April 13 at 9:21PM CDT by NWS North Platte NE At… Read more »

f00dl3
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f00dl3

At 809 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorms near Taylor, moving west at 25 mph. Despite temperatures only in the upper 20s to lower 30s, dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms. The precipitation may turn from rain or freezing rain to snow as well, reducing visibilities to near zero at times through the evening.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Have picked up .94 in of rain today and currently sit at 35 with heavy rain and sleet mix. Winds gusting to 25. 1/4 in of ice with 8 to 12 in of snow expected. Very impressive storm all across the country!

Tdogg
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Tdogg

Big snow Sat night!! Biggest since last week!!!

Jayhawkfinalfour
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Jayhawkfinalfour

Anybody have any info on possible snow tomorrow night?

Ryan
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Ryan

comment image

Brittany
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Brittany

Are those line of storms by Paola on the cold front, or ahead?

Dave in LS
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Dave in LS

I am guessing it is the dry line, but being taken over by the cold front.

Dave in LS
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Dave in LS

Just want one of those cells south of Ottawa to intensify and give LS, independence, and blue springs just a little drink. Don’t think it will happen though. Maybe a few sprinkles.

Weatherby Tom
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Weatherby Tom

Just poured out .50 in my rain gauge. Have been under 2 severe t-storm warnings, with one more on the way. Big storm just to my west on radar.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Got .51 in a short period of time between Liberty and Kearney. May get more in a little while.

Dave in LS
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Dave in LS

Feel your pain three7s I’m in Lee’s summit.

JoeK
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JoeK

Contrary to what was stated above of which, I am still baffled, Gary did say the majority of us in the Metro might not see any rain or storms. Amazing thing is if you compare today to all winter, we should have expected it with all our spotty dustings and such. My personal opinion is that unless we get a “twist” we will continue to experience the same until the new LRC sets up. With that said, we should have one or two storms come through with that seasonal twist…Should?:D. On a positive note, no major severe weather with catastrophic… Read more »

Three7s
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Three7s

Looks like the next storm coming in will miss me north too. Kind of a training effect going on.

Emaw
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Emaw

.25″ in north Olathe from the thundershower earlier and I had few pea sized hail stones. Gary said on news earlier 1″ of snow tomorrow night! . . . But he didn’t say where.

Dave in LS
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Dave in LS

Cold front is still out west but I don’t think we have enough instability for it to get that active later

Three7s
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Three7s

My location in Independence got missed by a mile at the most. Hilarious.

Jill
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Jill

So any chance of storms forming to the west of Kansas City yet today/tonight, or is this game over for us?

JoeK
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JoeK

Snowflake,

This system was predicted over a month ago by the LRC and fits the 47 day cycle PERFECTLY and Gary had a handle on what it would do better than anybody else. This is the LRC at work! Based on your statement above, looks as if Gary is going to be right and TWC SigTor wrong, correct?

Jackson in Gladstone
Guest
Jackson in Gladstone

I can’t speak for Snowflake, but I disagree with this being a “PERFECT” LRC win for Gary. If you read back, Gary never tagged Kansas for severe weather for today; but the SPC and TWC did.

Gary repeatedly said he saw a severe threat primarily EAST and south of KC for today…but the primary action has all been to the west. If you read the last few days’ entries, he repeatedly downplayed the likelihood of even seeing a severe thunderstorm, yet today most of the metro was blanketed by severe thunderstorm warnings at least for a time.

Jackson in Gladstone
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Jackson in Gladstone

Case in point: yet another SVR warning — this one covering the entire metro:

https://twitter.com/NWSKansasCity/status/984928180208324613

JoeK
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JoeK

Ok , the majority of the severe weather has in fact been South and East. If you read his forecast over the past several days, He has stated that we would have small areas that would experience severe weather for a short amount of time ( 30 minutes or so) This has been SPOT ON. There may be a warning issued however, the entire metro is NOT experiencing severe weather. Finally, we barely experienced any severe weather, these were more like strong storms that impacted a small portion of the metro

JoeK
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JoeK

Jackson, This was taken from yesterdays blog post

“As I said, many of the ingredients are coming together to produce the conditions for the Storm Predictio Centers risk areas, but something is still off in our area. I am not going to say there is no chance of severe weather. If anything does develop, if a cumulonimbus cloud can break through the cap, then we may have one big supercell to track west and northwest of KC ” This is exactly what has happened.

Dave in LS
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Dave in LS

Yea I don’t really see how his forecast and the LRC was/is unsuccessful. I don’t know how his forecast could be anymore accurate other than predicting the exact time, which is impossible LOL.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Jackson,

One more thing, look at the radar for the entire region and there have been tornados South and East as well as the storm has blown up down there as compared to our very little area on the west side of KC. The point I was making is that Gary called this system 47 days ago to the day. Yes, the NWS issued tornado watches and storm warnings as they should, but this storm has behaved EXACTLY as the previous versions did and Gary forecasted it that way

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

If I heard Gerard correctly hail was falling at 135th and 69 highway. I’m at 135th and Nall and it hasn’t rained a drop.

Matt
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Matt

We just had some Hail 101st street and Lamar Ave but now rain stopped.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

We got all worked up over a typical thundershower………..im not complaining . I did get a nice hard downpour in east Shawnee, KS, maybe 1/3″

Lary Gezak
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Lary Gezak

Exactly. Loud t-storm here but that’s about it

Jayhawkfinalfour
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Jayhawkfinalfour

Looks like those returns down 35 are having a hard time getting going.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Looks like another win for the LRC. These are the same results we have been experiencing all season. The bulk of the storms are South and East. Look no further than the road map the LRC has given us. Unless we get a seasonal “twist” with one of these storms, it will continue to be the same. I do believe when this system cycles back through the end of May, it will be more potent and impact a greater geography.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Gary said a few days ago in his blog that when this system comes back at the end of May, he thinks the greatest threat will be more to the east of us.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Brittany,

Kind of, it should follow the same line as the storms did today however, I think ( and I believe Gary does as well) when it does cycle back through, it has the potential to be more impactful as a whole. Yes, areas South and East will have the greatest impacts , but I believe KC viewing area will experience a greater impact as well.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Oh, okay. Well, I’m sure that makes sense. I guess we will see for ourselves around May 30th or so. Thanks for the explanation.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

That being said looking directly at it there is no real lowering at all.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

don’t like the hook on that bottom cell when looking at higher res radar it’s clear…

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=EAX-N0Q-1-24

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

That bottom cell completely swallowed up the top cell. Wow.

WeathermanKumke
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WeathermanKumke

The JoCo express along I-35 wins again

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

St. Joe …..looks like another miss. They can’t get lucky up there

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

The storms traveled all the way up from Wichita are not giving up.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I’m hoping they hang out long enough to give my yard a good drink.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

That said, looking at the radar I’m not sure I’m in the right spot. 🙁

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Lol! I’m in Independence off 39th and idk how much I’ll get either.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Johnson County Warning extended.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

This storm near DeSoto is becoming a right-mover.

Tim
Guest
Tim

looks like that line is splitting up into two lines?

Mattinleavenworth
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Mattinleavenworth

Darkness is coming in from the southwest then there is this gap of blue and when I look to the northwest there is a huge cauliflower shaped cloud stretching up into the sky

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

PDS issued parts off Arkansas, far eastern Tx

Matt
Guest
Matt

A STW near Metro.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Just noticed a cell that tried to fire between Osawatomee and Paola on radar and it died as it moved NE. I wonder if the atmosphere is too stable.

Tim
Guest
Tim

hmm.. looks like that line closest to us is stretching thin and weakening the past few minutes..

Kstater
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Kstater

Hopefully another round forms behind this which some of the models are showing. Here in NW Lawrence we just had some absolutely insane winds I was outside and was completely caught off guard.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Almost looks like the dryline is retreating.

Tim
Guest
Tim

So looks like at this point the northern end of that line near Ottawa is what will be affecting the metro soon? Is there any expectation for this to spin up any individual cells going forward the news few hours?

Tim
Guest
Tim

and just as a typed that a tiny one popped up on 69 south of metro

WeathermanKumke
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WeathermanKumke

Sun is out at K-7 and Santa Fe. Waiting for the cells to enter JoCo

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

100

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Thanks btw!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Forgive me if I have a bad interpretation but the cap won’t really weaken storms that have already formed – more or less they prevent storms from forming in the first place. Once storms get churning the anvil creates it’s own atmosphere.

NoSnowflake
Guest
NoSnowflake

Correct.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Ahhh, okay. Gotcha. I didn’t know that!

NoSnowflake
Guest
NoSnowflake

Think of it like a lid on a pot…once removed, the steam billows forth…and there’s no getting it back down.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

The other point I’m getting at is this:

The rate the anvil spreads out from storms can trigger new storms if there was a cap in place as well. A cap is a elevated layer of warm air. Clouds prevent the sun from heating that air up – no more elevated warm air. Boom… storms pop through the parent cell anvil.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

At the expense of increased stability due to lesser heating – but – if it’s unstable enough or humid enough (especially during summer months) – this can actually cause MCS systems to explode.

Also why thunder storms don’t get cranking until sunset in Summer. Loss of daylight = degradation of elevated warm air layer. Pop in a good low level Jet…

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

I dunno, the line looks like it’s kinda-sorta beginning to weaken. Perhaps the cap is still in place?

Tim
Guest
Tim

That line is trucking our way– looks like its trying to expand northward the last few frames.