Severe Thunderstorm Risk Today

/Severe Thunderstorm Risk Today

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Today

3:30 PM Update:

Tornado Watch!

1

A tornado watch was issued, and is in effect until 9 PM.  Let’s track this area of thunderstorms that formed early.  Will there be more development later?

Previous Entry Below:

Good morning bloggers,

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms today. We always have to pay close attention to these risks. Tornadoes kill, and it is something that should never be taken lightly. At the same time, tornadoes are small and I am not sure what the percentage of people that live near KC has ever even seen one tornado, but it may be much lower than you would think. I am going to guess that it is around 10 to 25 percent at the most. Jeff Penner has never seen one and he is 47 years old, born and raised in KC. I have only seen one, and that was in Sitka, KS on a wild tornado chase in 1999.  At the same time 75 tornadoes happen annually in Kansas and around 45 in Missouri, so they will happen, but they just are so small that if you are not near one, you may never see one.  Again, they are deadly, and very scary for so many, unless you are a storm chasing.

The Set-Up:

Screen Shot 2018-04-13 at 6.54.59 AM

These two maps are the same one. I just circled the area to monitor for development. Usually thunderstorms will break through the cap and then we have a few supercells and it could be very bad with all types of severe weather possible. Sometimes, nothing forms at all in these set ups in this region I have circled. The short range models have not been able to break the cap and it is something to monitor. Well, of course we will be very closely.

2

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Now to 4 PM: Periods of clouds with a chance of a few weak showers or thunderstorms this morning.  The chance of measurable rain is 40% mostly along and southeast of I-35.  High:  78°
  • 4 PM to 10 PM:  There is a 30% chance of a severe thunderstorm at any one location. The risk would last for around 30 minutes if thunderstorms form.
  • Friday Night: Partly cloudy with the wind shifting to the west and northwest.  Turning colder and windy conditions continuing.  Low:  45°
  • Saturday:Periods of clouds and colder with a 20% chance of showers. High:  51°
  • Saturday night and Sunday:Cloudy with a few snowflakes or raindrops possible in the morning. The chance of measurable precipitation is just 20%. High:  45°]

Severe Weather Risk:

3

This is a rather strong upper level storm as you can see above. For it to snow in KC, we would need that upper low to track south  or just east of KC. If it tracks north or northeast of KC we will not see more than a few rain drops of snowflakes on the back side Saturday night and Sunday.

There is a lot to monitor today.  Forecasting the weather in KC is once again quite challenging.  Let’s see how it comes together later today.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the blog on Weather2020.com to join in the conversation as we track this together.

Have a great day!

Gary

2018-04-30T08:11:45+00:00April 13th, 2018|General|165 Comments

165 Comments

  1. Snow Miser April 13, 2018 at 7:48 am - Reply

    And it’s Friday the 13th, too! Head for the hills!

  2. Jason April 13, 2018 at 8:04 am - Reply

    Thanks Gary!

  3. Mr. Pete April 13, 2018 at 8:24 am - Reply

    Third crappy Sunday in a row….

  4. Stl78(winon,mn) April 13, 2018 at 8:36 am - Reply

    Which of u snow freaks wants to change locations wit me this wind? I’ll take your severe WX and u can have the 1/4 to 1/2 in of ice and the 6 to 12 in of snow! Say when, I’m over this! Have a nice wknd and stay safe.

    • Classy Cat April 13, 2018 at 9:20 am - Reply

      You wouldn’t take it if the severe weather was tornadic. Probably won’t be here, but just saying. We know how much snow and ice is headed your way.

      • Stl78(winon,mn) April 13, 2018 at 11:08 am - Reply

        I would take it classy. I enjoy the tornadic activity as long as all remain safe

    • RainsJ April 13, 2018 at 10:04 am - Reply

      The Ice is going to be the worst part!! Underneath the 6-12 inches(maybe more) of snow, is all of the ice that comes from Friday night.. not sure about Winona, but Mankato was forecasted for .1 inches of ice and 6-8+ snow.. Yeah it’s April 13th.. gotta love that MNWX

      • Stl78(winon,mn) April 13, 2018 at 11:11 am - Reply

        They r forecasting a 1/4 to 1/2 in ice here but the forecast continues to change and evolve as we get closer

        • RainsJ April 13, 2018 at 12:32 pm - Reply

          Yeah, originally was 3-5 in Mankato, but has changed a lot since earlier this week.. Record breaking storm possibly for the Twin Cities.

  5. Lary Gezak April 13, 2018 at 8:48 am - Reply

    Are these t-storms moving through now affecting our severe risk later?

  6. Kade April 13, 2018 at 8:48 am - Reply

    Lots of thunder currently in Miami, Co. Ks

  7. Craig April 13, 2018 at 8:51 am - Reply

    One question Gary…Does the development of these morning thundershowers signal anything about the relative strength of “the cap” or will it strengthen later today?

  8. Snow Miser April 13, 2018 at 9:05 am - Reply

    Methinks it might rain around here sooner than people were expecting.

  9. DanT April 13, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

    I don’t think this will impact the event for later today. Thinking these morning storms are (maybe) forming along the eastern edge of the cap? Or along a developing moisture axis as dew points are higher to our SW.

  10. REAL HUMEDUDE April 13, 2018 at 9:09 am - Reply

    HRRR develops the supercells well to west of KC, and then they move north out of viewing area or die before they make it here. There is a possibility that this morning is the only rain/storms we will get in metro. Also a decent chance HRRR starts trending to more supercells locally as more data runs come in. So to summarize, I have no clue what its gonna do later. Just keep an eye on it folks, could be some rapid changes coming.

  11. matt April 13, 2018 at 9:10 am - Reply

    In Arkansas Moderate Risk today. Maybe start near K-10\K-7. Sun was trying to come out at 95th street and Nall Ave. Hopefully no Tornado’s but it’s not at 0 percent chance.

  12. NoBeachHere April 13, 2018 at 9:16 am - Reply

    Nice thunderstorm just ese of my current location. Just wsw of Kearney.
    Wind is crazy lol

  13. f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 9:17 am - Reply

    NAM High res starting to slow this thing down – having the storms fire further west, slowly moving into the city between 8 and 9 PM.

  14. Three7s April 13, 2018 at 9:18 am - Reply

    I’m sure this rain will stabilize the atmosphere as usual. RIP severe weather.

  15. Lary Gezak April 13, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

    Be patient people… just yesterday the SPC had a whole two paragraphs dedicated to our area in the discussion because of the potential for damaging supercells. We have to wait and see how this is evolving. The 3km NAM has a few single cells, and then a line of t-storms after that. Just keep monitoring.

  16. Jack April 13, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

    I still don’t understand why we are not the target today since we are very close to the triple point? Gary, can you help me out with this? I am very frustrated.

    Jack

    • Lary Gezak April 13, 2018 at 9:50 am - Reply

      This is what I’m wondering as well

    • Gary April 13, 2018 at 10:29 am - Reply

      Jack,

      It is all in jet dynamics today. eastern Kansas is not in favorable jet streak dynamics, sort of in the middle or even right front quadrant. The severe weather risk is almost always highest in the left front quadrant and right rear quadrant. Our area is closer to the middle or right front quadrant of a jet streak coming our way. This usually means sinking air and not rising air. But, if it gets hot enough out near the front, something could still break through.

      • Jack April 13, 2018 at 11:06 am - Reply

        Could you explain this quadrant language? A bit confused.
        http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=bs0500&rh=2018041312&fh=9&r=conus&dpdt=

        Here is the wind shear map for us.

        • Gary April 13, 2018 at 11:13 am - Reply

          I will have to show it in a blog soon. When this storm develops and intensifies above Kansas, western Kansas is where the upper low is forming now, a jet streak will intensify and shoot out over the plains today. This makes forecasting these events quite difficult. As this jet streak spreads out, there is a core of strongest winds aloft, and by this evening it is moving out over eastern Kansas. The left front quadrant, near southwest Iowa, and the right rear quadrant, down near southern Missouri, are in favorable positions for the strongest influence from this energy. Kansas City is closer to the right front or middle of the jet which is not as favorable. Look at this link: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=uv250&runtime=2018041312&fh=6 This shows the jet streak pretty well. I just need to go over this in the blog some day.

  17. kstater April 13, 2018 at 9:39 am - Reply

    This reminds me of the march 6th setup from last year. The conditions are fairly similar, and here in Lawrence we were supposed to be on the western edge. Things ended up slowing down and storms formed farther west, but like today the storms were moving really fast. Things seem to be trending towards that to me looking at NAM hi res.

  18. Richard April 13, 2018 at 9:56 am - Reply

    Thanks for the forecast Gary

  19. f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

    http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=local-Kansas-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

    Thoughts about thunderstorms exploding here in the next 2-3 hours?

  20. f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 10:20 am - Reply

    Really nice CU field firing up right now St. Joe to Topeka. Storms fired this morning so unless cap really rapidly strengthens one can presume the cap is still weak enough to support new storms around the Noon hour here in KC?

    • Lary Gezak April 13, 2018 at 10:28 am - Reply

      Sun starting to pop out… get the ingredients cooking!

      • Gary April 13, 2018 at 10:49 am - Reply

        Speaking of cooking, or the opposite of cooking, the latest NAM and GFS place us clearly in the comma head with a dusting of snow or a bit more on Sunday morning. This is one crazy week.

  21. f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 10:51 am - Reply

    I don’t remember a storm this dynamic in a long time.

    • WeathermanKumke April 13, 2018 at 11:26 am - Reply

      It’s been awhile for sure. Especially one that actually impacts the KC Region.

  22. WeathermanKumke April 13, 2018 at 11:25 am - Reply

    You can smell it in the air!

  23. REAL HUMEDUDE April 13, 2018 at 11:26 am - Reply

    Severe Tstorm warnings in S. Dakota , with snow only like 40 miles away. Dynamic indeed! I would say we usually have a few of these about every year, powerful but not really rare.

  24. Weatherby Tom April 13, 2018 at 11:30 am - Reply

    I’ve got brilliant sunshine here, will that aid in the development of storms later? or no effect?

    • Jack April 13, 2018 at 11:34 am - Reply

      The more the sun stays out, the more unstable the atmosphere gets, making it better for t-storm development.

  25. Jack April 13, 2018 at 11:37 am - Reply

    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Satellite/Visible.aspx?location=USKS0126

    You can see right where the dry line is. There a cumulus field developing you can see it right on the dry line.

    • DanT April 13, 2018 at 11:50 am - Reply

      Fits well with the Dew Point spread and wind direction change- Hutchinson DP 47 with a West wind and Wichita DP 64 with a South wind.

  26. matt April 13, 2018 at 11:40 am - Reply

    95th Street and Nall Ave update Sun is really shining mean bad will happen maybe. Tornado Watch yes and EF3 or higher some where.

  27. Troy Newman April 13, 2018 at 11:48 am - Reply

    I did not realize there were so few tornadoes near KC.
    I also cannot remember such ridiculous wind forecasts. Goodland NWS is calling for 5 to 9 inches possible with 50-60 mph winds with gusts to 80 mph!! Here in RP county our gusts could reach 60 mph and I am only 15 miles away from a Blizzard warning in Nuckolls County NE.

  28. Jack April 13, 2018 at 12:01 pm - Reply

    There are clouds all over Arkansas… wonder if it will be a bust. Time will tell.

  29. matt April 13, 2018 at 12:09 pm - Reply

    Not here sunny out. Watching for a watch down their.

  30. Lary Gezak April 13, 2018 at 12:20 pm - Reply

    I’m in Clay County in N KC, the sun is shining & about 83. Looking like whatever cap we had is breaking, even some very small cumulus clouds which implies instability.

  31. jsquibble April 13, 2018 at 12:29 pm - Reply

    looks like storms are starting to form pretty soon just east of wichita looking at satellite radar

    • Snow Miser April 13, 2018 at 1:00 pm - Reply

      Those have really started to explode in the last couple frames.

  32. Roger April 13, 2018 at 12:31 pm - Reply

    Man are the fires bad in Oklahoma. 450 people evacuated in Woodward.
    https://weather.com/news/news/2018-04-12-oklahoma-wildfire-evacuation-firefighter-blaze

  33. Weatherby Tom April 13, 2018 at 12:40 pm - Reply

    Wonder if we will be under a Severe T-Storm watch or Tornado watch later? maybe sooner than later

  34. f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 12:53 pm - Reply

    http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=local-Kansas-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

    Looks like the stream of high clouds moving in is precipitating at the high levels helping to cool temps and bust the cap

    • Lary Gezak April 13, 2018 at 12:54 pm - Reply

      That and surface heating are both occurring. Definitely a good sign

      • Brittany April 13, 2018 at 1:03 pm - Reply

        You mean definitely NOT a good sign. Don’t want any severe weather! I don’t think hail damage is covered by my insurance LOL.

        • Lary Gezak April 13, 2018 at 1:07 pm - Reply

          I do not wish severe weather on anyone, but it is definitely fascinating to track and experience!

          • Brittany April 13, 2018 at 1:14 pm - Reply

            Agreed! I hate tornadoes (if they’re over me LOL) but I’d love to go chasing some day. I think they’re beautiful when they’re not destroying stuff haha. Don’t mind good old fashioned thunderstorms either.

  35. DanT April 13, 2018 at 1:28 pm - Reply

    Tornado Watch issued in SE Ks with storms going up on the dry line east of Wichita.
    The thinking was the storms would fire near the triple point first not where they are now.

    • Lary Gezak April 13, 2018 at 1:31 pm - Reply

      What does this mean for KC?

      • DanT April 13, 2018 at 1:42 pm - Reply

        The storms are moving this way- so if they hold together they will be in the KC later today.

  36. f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 1:30 pm - Reply
  37. Heat Miser April 13, 2018 at 1:39 pm - Reply

    I just read that a PDS Tornado Watch might get issued somewhere.

    • DanT April 13, 2018 at 1:45 pm - Reply

      Looks like the Ark-La-Tex region. Reed Timmer is doing a live report from that region at this time.

  38. matt April 13, 2018 at 1:40 pm - Reply

    In watch area EF2 Tornado’s Moderate. We be under a Tornado Watch soon.

  39. Brittany April 13, 2018 at 1:49 pm - Reply

    A lot of heavy/severe looking storms are firing in central OK and now there’s a tornado watch for southern OK/northern TX. Both of which were only in the marginal/slight risks. Interesting.

  40. Jack April 13, 2018 at 1:53 pm - Reply

    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Satellite/Visible.aspx?location=USKS0126

    We need to watch for between Salina and Topeka and just southeast of Beatrice.

  41. Lary Gezak April 13, 2018 at 2:12 pm - Reply

    Watch insurance for our area likely within the next couple hours, per the SPC

    • DanT April 13, 2018 at 2:16 pm - Reply

      Severe Warned Storm west of Topeka.

    • Jayhawkfinalfour April 13, 2018 at 2:18 pm - Reply

      Wind in hail initially with tornado conditions later on! Seems to be evolving a little different than the models showed or the cap was weaker than anticipated.

  42. Miss Jess April 13, 2018 at 2:18 pm - Reply

    In tornado watch now as of 2:20

  43. Lary Gezak April 13, 2018 at 2:19 pm - Reply

    Here we go tornado watch issued for most of the viewing area

  44. Terry April 13, 2018 at 2:22 pm - Reply

    Tornado watch issued for the metro area Until 9:00 p.m.

  45. Brittany April 13, 2018 at 2:24 pm - Reply

    Greeeeat.

  46. weatherjaded April 13, 2018 at 2:28 pm - Reply

    Don’t the radar returns look a lot like what Gary was mentioning about KC being in the wrong quadrant? He mentioned storms develop to our southwest and then stream north and west of KC into to Iowa without making it to us.

  47. Jack April 13, 2018 at 2:29 pm - Reply

    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Satellite/Visible.aspx?location=USKS0126

    The cap has still not broke to the north of emporia.. there are no clouds forming. Let’s not get too excited yet, but NOAA obviously believes it is going to break.

  48. Rockdoc April 13, 2018 at 2:34 pm - Reply

    Not liking the SigTor readings between 7 in our area.

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=stp&rh=2018041317&fh=7&r=conus&dpdt=

    Just hope there are no issues flying into KC around 5:30 to 6:00 tonight. What’s your latest take on the “storm” outlook then Gary?

    • Remembercody April 13, 2018 at 2:47 pm - Reply

      Am I reading it correctly, darker the color (yellow/oranges) the more higher the tornado threat? So why is the threat higher in nw mo and ne ks if the parameters for tornados there aren’t even high? Excuse my layman’s interpretation of this. Thanks. 🙂

  49. f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 2:47 pm - Reply

    So who will be right? SigTor readings/TWC or Gary? Will this line of storms die or will it be all heck around 4:30-6 PM?

    • NoSnowflake April 13, 2018 at 3:04 pm - Reply

      Time will tell…gonna be interesting.

  50. f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 2:53 pm - Reply

    Judging by the dynamics of this storm I would be shocked if the metro got by tonight without a solid line of storms progressing through. This is a powerhouse storm.

    • Lary Gezak April 13, 2018 at 2:54 pm - Reply

      Exactly. Tornado watches aren’t issued lightly

      • Heat Miser April 13, 2018 at 3:37 pm - Reply

        Mabye, but on the other hand I’ve seen a lot of Tornado Watches issued for us that ended up no producing much for the watch area at all in terms of tornados

    • Brittany April 13, 2018 at 2:59 pm - Reply

      I’d be fine with more linear storms. The line near Emporia looks like it’s trying to bow out a little bit on radar. Is it just me?

    • f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 3:08 pm - Reply

      Nothing to do with the fact a tornado watch was issued. I have come to take those with a grain of salt. More to do with the setup. Dryline progressing. Slow movement of storms. Linear nature of storms. Dynamics of the storm. Dewpoint 63. Winds backing. 3080 J/Kg CAPE. 994 pressure. 1:53 PM readings Olathe / JoCo.

  51. Brittany April 13, 2018 at 3:05 pm - Reply

    The cell near Topeka looks like it might have a hook on it.

  52. deleted April 13, 2018 at 3:08 pm - Reply

    a good ole spring storm.. just like clock work.. just like kansas hoops in trouble every year.

    thanks Gary.. You the man!

  53. f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 3:09 pm - Reply

    Looks like lone cells trying to fire closer to home near JoCo/Douglas county line

    • Three7s April 13, 2018 at 3:20 pm - Reply

      I see a storm trying to fire near the Jackson/Clay/Ray county line too. Saw a rising cumulonimbus structure outside and something is trying to pop on radar. Looks like that cap is quite weak.

  54. Lary Gezak April 13, 2018 at 3:34 pm - Reply

    What is the timing for all this to start?

  55. Stl78(winon,mn) April 13, 2018 at 3:47 pm - Reply

    I think nws is running out of colors to use on their map!

  56. Fred Nolan April 13, 2018 at 3:49 pm - Reply

    Sure looks like this line is going to continue right up 35

  57. Tim April 13, 2018 at 3:50 pm - Reply

    That line is trucking our way– looks like its trying to expand northward the last few frames.

  58. Brittany April 13, 2018 at 3:59 pm - Reply

    I dunno, the line looks like it’s kinda-sorta beginning to weaken. Perhaps the cap is still in place?

  59. f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 4:03 pm - Reply

    Forgive me if I have a bad interpretation but the cap won’t really weaken storms that have already formed – more or less they prevent storms from forming in the first place. Once storms get churning the anvil creates it’s own atmosphere.

    • NoSnowflake April 13, 2018 at 4:07 pm - Reply

      Correct.

    • Brittany April 13, 2018 at 4:10 pm - Reply

      Ahhh, okay. Gotcha. I didn’t know that!

      • NoSnowflake April 13, 2018 at 4:16 pm - Reply

        Think of it like a lid on a pot…once removed, the steam billows forth…and there’s no getting it back down.

    • f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 4:26 pm - Reply

      The other point I’m getting at is this:

      The rate the anvil spreads out from storms can trigger new storms if there was a cap in place as well. A cap is a elevated layer of warm air. Clouds prevent the sun from heating that air up – no more elevated warm air. Boom… storms pop through the parent cell anvil.

      • f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 4:29 pm - Reply

        At the expense of increased stability due to lesser heating – but – if it’s unstable enough or humid enough (especially during summer months) – this can actually cause MCS systems to explode.

        Also why thunder storms don’t get cranking until sunset in Summer. Loss of daylight = degradation of elevated warm air layer. Pop in a good low level Jet…

  60. Brittany April 13, 2018 at 4:11 pm - Reply

    Thanks btw!

  61. Stl78(winon,mn) April 13, 2018 at 4:31 pm - Reply

    100

  62. WeathermanKumke April 13, 2018 at 4:31 pm - Reply

    Sun is out at K-7 and Santa Fe. Waiting for the cells to enter JoCo

  63. Tim April 13, 2018 at 4:35 pm - Reply

    So looks like at this point the northern end of that line near Ottawa is what will be affecting the metro soon? Is there any expectation for this to spin up any individual cells going forward the news few hours?

    • Tim April 13, 2018 at 4:36 pm - Reply

      and just as a typed that a tiny one popped up on 69 south of metro

  64. f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 4:39 pm - Reply

    Almost looks like the dryline is retreating.

  65. Kstater April 13, 2018 at 4:41 pm - Reply

    Hopefully another round forms behind this which some of the models are showing. Here in NW Lawrence we just had some absolutely insane winds I was outside and was completely caught off guard.

  66. Tim April 13, 2018 at 4:42 pm - Reply

    hmm.. looks like that line closest to us is stretching thin and weakening the past few minutes..

  67. Brittany April 13, 2018 at 4:47 pm - Reply

    Just noticed a cell that tried to fire between Osawatomee and Paola on radar and it died as it moved NE. I wonder if the atmosphere is too stable.

  68. Matt April 13, 2018 at 4:48 pm - Reply

    A STW near Metro.

  69. Heat Miser April 13, 2018 at 4:49 pm - Reply

    PDS issued parts off Arkansas, far eastern Tx

  70. Mattinleavenworth April 13, 2018 at 4:52 pm - Reply

    Darkness is coming in from the southwest then there is this gap of blue and when I look to the northwest there is a huge cauliflower shaped cloud stretching up into the sky

  71. Tim April 13, 2018 at 4:58 pm - Reply

    looks like that line is splitting up into two lines?

  72. f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 5:07 pm - Reply

    This storm near DeSoto is becoming a right-mover.

  73. Matt April 13, 2018 at 5:19 pm - Reply

    Johnson County Warning extended.

  74. Brittany April 13, 2018 at 5:22 pm - Reply

    The storms traveled all the way up from Wichita are not giving up.

    • Snow Miser April 13, 2018 at 5:27 pm - Reply

      I’m hoping they hang out long enough to give my yard a good drink.

    • Snow Miser April 13, 2018 at 5:28 pm - Reply

      That said, looking at the radar I’m not sure I’m in the right spot. 🙁

      • Brittany April 13, 2018 at 5:38 pm - Reply

        Lol! I’m in Independence off 39th and idk how much I’ll get either.

  75. REAL HUMEDUDE April 13, 2018 at 5:46 pm - Reply

    St. Joe …..looks like another miss. They can’t get lucky up there

  76. WeathermanKumke April 13, 2018 at 5:47 pm - Reply

    The JoCo express along I-35 wins again

  77. Brittany April 13, 2018 at 5:47 pm - Reply

    That bottom cell completely swallowed up the top cell. Wow.

  78. f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 5:54 pm - Reply

    don’t like the hook on that bottom cell when looking at higher res radar it’s clear…

    http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=EAX-N0Q-1-24

  79. f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 5:59 pm - Reply

    That being said looking directly at it there is no real lowering at all.

  80. JoeK April 13, 2018 at 5:59 pm - Reply

    Looks like another win for the LRC. These are the same results we have been experiencing all season. The bulk of the storms are South and East. Look no further than the road map the LRC has given us. Unless we get a seasonal “twist” with one of these storms, it will continue to be the same. I do believe when this system cycles back through the end of May, it will be more potent and impact a greater geography.

    • Brittany April 13, 2018 at 6:05 pm - Reply

      Gary said a few days ago in his blog that when this system comes back at the end of May, he thinks the greatest threat will be more to the east of us.

      • JoeK April 13, 2018 at 6:11 pm - Reply

        Brittany,

        Kind of, it should follow the same line as the storms did today however, I think ( and I believe Gary does as well) when it does cycle back through, it has the potential to be more impactful as a whole. Yes, areas South and East will have the greatest impacts , but I believe KC viewing area will experience a greater impact as well.

        • Brittany April 13, 2018 at 6:45 pm - Reply

          Oh, okay. Well, I’m sure that makes sense. I guess we will see for ourselves around May 30th or so. Thanks for the explanation.

  81. Jayhawkfinalfour April 13, 2018 at 6:05 pm - Reply

    Looks like those returns down 35 are having a hard time getting going.

  82. REAL HUMEDUDE April 13, 2018 at 6:07 pm - Reply

    We got all worked up over a typical thundershower………..im not complaining . I did get a nice hard downpour in east Shawnee, KS, maybe 1/3″

    • Lary Gezak April 13, 2018 at 6:29 pm - Reply

      Exactly. Loud t-storm here but that’s about it

  83. Matt April 13, 2018 at 6:10 pm - Reply

    We just had some Hail 101st street and Lamar Ave but now rain stopped.

  84. Ryan April 13, 2018 at 6:15 pm - Reply

    If I heard Gerard correctly hail was falling at 135th and 69 highway. I’m at 135th and Nall and it hasn’t rained a drop.

  85. JoeK April 13, 2018 at 6:16 pm - Reply

    Snowflake,

    This system was predicted over a month ago by the LRC and fits the 47 day cycle PERFECTLY and Gary had a handle on what it would do better than anybody else. This is the LRC at work! Based on your statement above, looks as if Gary is going to be right and TWC SigTor wrong, correct?

    • Jackson in Gladstone April 13, 2018 at 6:48 pm - Reply

      I can’t speak for Snowflake, but I disagree with this being a “PERFECT” LRC win for Gary. If you read back, Gary never tagged Kansas for severe weather for today; but the SPC and TWC did.

      Gary repeatedly said he saw a severe threat primarily EAST and south of KC for today…but the primary action has all been to the west. If you read the last few days’ entries, he repeatedly downplayed the likelihood of even seeing a severe thunderstorm, yet today most of the metro was blanketed by severe thunderstorm warnings at least for a time.

      • Jackson in Gladstone April 13, 2018 at 6:51 pm - Reply

        Case in point: yet another SVR warning — this one covering the entire metro:

        https://twitter.com/NWSKansasCity/status/984928180208324613

        • JoeK April 13, 2018 at 6:59 pm - Reply

          Ok , the majority of the severe weather has in fact been South and East. If you read his forecast over the past several days, He has stated that we would have small areas that would experience severe weather for a short amount of time ( 30 minutes or so) This has been SPOT ON. There may be a warning issued however, the entire metro is NOT experiencing severe weather. Finally, we barely experienced any severe weather, these were more like strong storms that impacted a small portion of the metro

        • JoeK April 13, 2018 at 7:03 pm - Reply

          Jackson, This was taken from yesterdays blog post

          “As I said, many of the ingredients are coming together to produce the conditions for the Storm Predictio Centers risk areas, but something is still off in our area. I am not going to say there is no chance of severe weather. If anything does develop, if a cumulonimbus cloud can break through the cap, then we may have one big supercell to track west and northwest of KC ” This is exactly what has happened.

          • Dave in LS April 13, 2018 at 7:12 pm - Reply

            Yea I don’t really see how his forecast and the LRC was/is unsuccessful. I don’t know how his forecast could be anymore accurate other than predicting the exact time, which is impossible LOL.

        • JoeK April 13, 2018 at 7:10 pm - Reply

          Jackson,

          One more thing, look at the radar for the entire region and there have been tornados South and East as well as the storm has blown up down there as compared to our very little area on the west side of KC. The point I was making is that Gary called this system 47 days ago to the day. Yes, the NWS issued tornado watches and storm warnings as they should, but this storm has behaved EXACTLY as the previous versions did and Gary forecasted it that way

  86. Jill April 13, 2018 at 6:32 pm - Reply

    So any chance of storms forming to the west of Kansas City yet today/tonight, or is this game over for us?

  87. Three7s April 13, 2018 at 6:34 pm - Reply

    My location in Independence got missed by a mile at the most. Hilarious.

  88. Dave in LS April 13, 2018 at 6:38 pm - Reply

    Cold front is still out west but I don’t think we have enough instability for it to get that active later

  89. Emaw April 13, 2018 at 7:14 pm - Reply

    .25″ in north Olathe from the thundershower earlier and I had few pea sized hail stones. Gary said on news earlier 1″ of snow tomorrow night! . . . But he didn’t say where.

  90. Three7s April 13, 2018 at 7:18 pm - Reply

    Looks like the next storm coming in will miss me north too. Kind of a training effect going on.

  91. Dave in LS April 13, 2018 at 7:19 pm - Reply

    Feel your pain three7s I’m in Lee’s summit.

    • JoeK April 13, 2018 at 7:28 pm - Reply

      Contrary to what was stated above of which, I am still baffled, Gary did say the majority of us in the Metro might not see any rain or storms. Amazing thing is if you compare today to all winter, we should have expected it with all our spotty dustings and such. My personal opinion is that unless we get a “twist” we will continue to experience the same until the new LRC sets up. With that said, we should have one or two storms come through with that seasonal twist…Should?:D. On a positive note, no major severe weather with catastrophic damage or life loss today ( in our area), just wish we could have received some more moisture

  92. Hockeynut69 April 13, 2018 at 7:28 pm - Reply

    Got .51 in a short period of time between Liberty and Kearney. May get more in a little while.

  93. Weatherby Tom April 13, 2018 at 7:59 pm - Reply

    Just poured out .50 in my rain gauge. Have been under 2 severe t-storm warnings, with one more on the way. Big storm just to my west on radar.

  94. Dave in LS April 13, 2018 at 8:09 pm - Reply

    Just want one of those cells south of Ottawa to intensify and give LS, independence, and blue springs just a little drink. Don’t think it will happen though. Maybe a few sprinkles.

  95. Brittany April 13, 2018 at 8:25 pm - Reply

    Are those line of storms by Paola on the cold front, or ahead?

    • Dave in LS April 13, 2018 at 8:34 pm - Reply

      I am guessing it is the dry line, but being taken over by the cold front.

  96. Tdogg April 13, 2018 at 8:36 pm - Reply

    Big snow Sat night!! Biggest since last week!!!

  97. Stl78(winon,mn) April 13, 2018 at 8:41 pm - Reply

    Have picked up .94 in of rain today and currently sit at 35 with heavy rain and sleet mix. Winds gusting to 25. 1/4 in of ice with 8 to 12 in of snow expected. Very impressive storm all across the country!

  98. f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 9:03 pm - Reply

    At 809 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorms near Taylor, moving west at 25 mph. Despite temperatures only in the upper 20s to lower 30s, dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms. The precipitation may turn from rain or freezing rain to snow as well, reducing visibilities to near zero at times through the evening.

  99. f00dl3 April 13, 2018 at 9:37 pm - Reply

    (CAP v1.2) Special Weather Statement
    Special Weather Statement issued April 13 at 9:28PM CDT by NWS North Platte NE

    At 928 PM CDT radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 miles northwest of Rose to near Brewster. Movement was west at 10 mph. Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with these storms. Locations impacted include… Raven Hawley Flats Willow Lake State Wildlif…

    It’s 22 degrees there right now. WTF??!

    (CAP v1.2) Special Weather Statement
    Special Weather Statement issued April 13 at 9:21PM CDT by NWS North Platte NE

    At 917 PM CDT a dangerous snow squall was located from near Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area to North Platte. Movement was southwest at 10 mph. Locations impacted include… North Platte Burwell Taylor Hershey Arnold Sargent Merna Maxwell Anselmo Gandy Dickens Lake Maloney State Recreation Area Vic….

  100. Kurt April 13, 2018 at 9:37 pm - Reply

    Big surprise just a brief shower less than 1/10 of an inch, extremely dry weather continues

    • Roger April 14, 2018 at 2:50 am - Reply

      It sucks. But not unexpected.

      • Kurt April 14, 2018 at 3:26 am - Reply

        What aggravates me is the hype about how stormy it is, when I really think the reality of a drought is being ignored or severally underplayed. I’m more concerned about agricultural interests, crops, livestock and hay. But for me, I am not at all encouraged to attempt a garden or plant annuals this year and I don’t think people realize how potentially bad this could be.

        Yes I’ll be plastered as doom and gloom, but only 2 inches of total QPF 3 1/2 months into the year, yikes is this going to be one of the driest years on record up here? It’s just not changing and I don’t feel that anyone can guarantee it will turn wet

  101. Snow Miser April 13, 2018 at 10:00 pm - Reply

    BAH! That line of storms that was making a beeline toward me suddenly went POOF just as it got close. 🙁 My plants could use some rain.

  102. Mr. Pete April 14, 2018 at 12:27 am - Reply

    At 10pm, Gary said on the air that a inch of snow is possible for KC Sat night.

  103. Springless in KC April 14, 2018 at 8:51 am - Reply

    What the heck happened to the 7 day forecast between 6:30 PM yesterday and this morning? Last evening showed a crappy weekend, cool Monday, then a nice week with sunshine and low 70s. This morning, it changed significantly, with windy and cool conditions after Tuesday. Next Friday’s forecast went from 68 to low 50s. What changed so much in 12 hours?

    The weather in this town might be interesting and fascinating for the meteorologists, but it sure does suck for doing anything outdoors. If it isn’t cool and cloudy, it’s warm and blustery. It’s impossible to warm up around here without a wind howling in your face. Rare are the warm, sunny, and calm days that many other parts of the country enjoy. It always seems that KC gets the table scraps from other places’ nice weather.

  104. Richard April 14, 2018 at 8:52 am - Reply

    Sound familiar ?
    4/14/2014 ( 4 yrs ago today) it snowed here. And 2 days before that we hit 80.

  105. George April 14, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

    Getting sleet right now here in OP 87th & Antioch

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