Finally: A Big Warm Up

/Finally: A Big Warm Up

Finally: A Big Warm Up

Good morning bloggers,

The first 100 days of 2018 featured two 70°+ days.  In Kansas City, there were 98 days below 70° which must be a record to start the year.  It was 71° on February 27th, and then 76° on March 15th. Those were the only two 70 degree days, until today, the 101st day of 2018. We are forecasting a high of 78° this afternoon, but it will come with a sacrifice. There will be a lot of wind.

Screen Shot 2018-04-11 at 7.37.37 AM

The models have varying solutions for what will happen Friday and over the weekend.  The GFS model, left, and the NAM model, right, as you can see above, has no convection near the front in eastern Kansas on the GFS, and heavy convection, thunderstorms, on the NAM as shown.  A developing blizzard is shown over the western and northern plains. This storm is then forecast to go through a transition and by Sunday, some of that cold air blasts south, and there is a decent chance Kansas City will have snow for the third straight Sunday.

Screen Shot 2018-04-11 at 7.39.53 AM

This map, above, shows the European Model solution valid at 7 AM Sunday.  This storm will be another interesting one to track. Let’s discuss much more in the comments section over on the Weather2020 blog.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook:

Here is the day 3 outlook for severe thunderstorms. This is a storm system that we have been targeting to produce severe weather risks for weeks now.  It is right on schedule. The risk near KC is still somewhat in question, but the risks southeast of our area are more significant and will shift east on Saturday and Sunday.

day3otlk_0730

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the blog on Weather2020.com and join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.  Have a great day.

Gary

2018-04-13T07:39:35+00:00 April 11th, 2018|General|68 Comments

68 Comments

  1. Jim April 11, 2018 at 8:10 am - Reply

    Models, models, models…

    Anyone notice what is missing?

    • Three7s April 11, 2018 at 8:27 am - Reply

      Not really. He knew this system would come per the LRC because it has hit in each and every cycle. Will it produce severe weather? I’m sure that’s what you’re referring to as “missing”, but that’s not what the LRC does, which has been mentioned about 100 times in the last week. It will tell you when a storm will hit, it wont tell you EXACTLY where it will hit or what it will do.

      It’s been like this since the LRC has been discovered. Oh, and it’s not just “models models models”, the models are used as a guide to further pin-point what will happen. If you don’t like meteorologists showing off models, then I wouldn’t be following weather because every single one of them will use them until the end of time.

      • Jim April 11, 2018 at 8:36 am - Reply

        I would love to know where you saw a “pin-point what will happen.” I saw models with more questions than answers. If the LRC, 2-4 days out can’t tell me if it isn’t going to storm or snow in a 100 mile radius, it serves no purpose. Knowing it is going to snow (maybe) somewhere in an 8 state area ahead of time doesn’t do anyone any good.

        • Three7s April 11, 2018 at 11:39 am - Reply

          Of course they don’t give the exact answer, they’re used as a guide along with the LRC.

  2. Jon Behle April 11, 2018 at 8:39 am - Reply

    Jim.. Maybe but I would think someone in the energy or agriculture business would like to know the large scale weather pattern change well ahead of time.. Sorry if your exact neighborhood isn not easy to forecast for using the LRC knowing if it will rain 0.26″ 23 days out. I don’t think using any forecasting method will work well for that just yet..

    • Jim April 11, 2018 at 8:43 am - Reply

      That is the argument I keep hearing, Jon. I have continually said that is not what I am asking for. Is it going to snow if Kansas City in 4 days? That is a pretty broad question that has still not been answered. I am not asking for specifics totals at my house. You can keep moving the goal posts for him though.

      Again, if the only purpose the LRC serves is to energy and agriculture businesses, then it useless to most of us.

      • KS Jones April 11, 2018 at 9:15 am - Reply

        jim,
        If you’re wanting a specific forecast for rain or snow, don’t depend on the NWS. They can’t seem to get it right even 8 hours in advance, so you might as well do without all weather forecasts.

  3. Brian April 11, 2018 at 9:00 am - Reply

    Jim,

    I appreciate your comments and your questions. I think that it is important to continually question the validity of the LRC, as it only helps to improve the theory.

    However, you may never get the answers to the questions you have, because those are the same questions that have been asked multiple times and multiple ways over the years. The supporters of the LRC will bristle at you asking questions, you will get tired of the same argument, and ultimately, you will leave the blog.

    Until the time you decide to leave, keep asking questions…but be prepared for sometimes snarky answers and name-calling. Be prepared for some to get their feelings hurt, and for you to become frustrated because your questions may never be answered. Oh, and be ready for the myriad of excuses of why the theory didn’t correctly predict a storm (due to a seasonal twist), total snow fall over the last few winters (wrong predictions) or anything else. And… be ready to be treated like you don’t understand the weather and be told just to study the LRC and models and all will become clear in the future.

    The weather is interesting, and the arguments that ensue about the weather and LRC are also interesting and entertaining. I am sure I am not the only one who feels this way…

    • LYITC41 April 11, 2018 at 9:10 am - Reply

      No sir, you are not and I could not have stated that any better. It’s the excuses about why something did or didn’t pan out with the theory that turn people off.

    • Jim April 11, 2018 at 9:16 am - Reply

      Brain,

      Thanks for the positive response. I come here because I want to learn more about weather, and I think Gary is the best. I really want the LRC to be what it has been hyped to be. I hope by asking these questions, and questions by others, will be frustrating enough that holes and lapses in the theory will have to be explained. Unfortunately, I get excuses, or moving of the goal posts. This blog was/is called weathering the future. The more I come here and read the blog, the more I feel like I am watching an infomercial. It sounds great on the surface, but it lacks the substance to live up to the hype.

      • JoeK April 11, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

        Jim,

        Personally, I do not see any “hype” in the LRC. Go back 47 days from this coming weekends storm to Feb 26/27/28, tell me what you see. From my prospective, it is remarkable. The storms line up perfectly and right on schedule. This is the LRC and what it can tell us. Prior to the LRC, we would have to wait until 10 days or so prior to any storm to even see a remote possibility of it happening. Now, we know months ahead of time what we can expect. Now, although we know a storm system will be in the area and we have a general idea of what to expect, we have to also use the models to fine tune the forecasts.For an example, write down the system this weekend on your calendar and watch for it to return with a good chance of severe weather to return between May 29 and June 1. Again, this is the LRC at work. It seems as if you are expecting the LRC to pin down a very specific forecast months ahead of time of which, there are limitations, but if you really are here to learn and want to be objective, allow yourself to think in dimensional terms rather than simply looking for a precise forecast for a specific area. I appreciate your questions as I originally had them too, but over the years have used the LRC with success.

        • Jim April 11, 2018 at 9:52 am - Reply

          “It seems as if you are expecting the LRC to pin down a very specific forecast months ahead of time…”

          Here’s where your off and why it feels like an informercial. Gary set this expectation with his Super Bowl forecast when it was in New York. He did that to himself. Right or wrong?

          I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. How many times do I have to say that I am not looking for a precise forecast in a specific area? Is it going to snow in the 4-state area this weekend. That is not precise or very specific in terms of forecasting.

          • JoeK April 11, 2018 at 10:19 am - Reply

            Jim,

            I’m lost on the infomercial comment? As for will it snow in the 4-state area? Yes, the LRC tells us ( from my prospective) it will snow.Also, Since you say you are not looking for specifics, if the LRC predicts this system will return the last week of May and it does, do you view this favorably? I am trying to understand what you are looking for, but being honest, I am a little lost. As to snow amounts, I can’t tell you that. Moreover, using the LRC, I believe we will have some unseasonably cooler air the last half of May accompanied with a major severe weather outbreak that will impact Multiple states from kansas/Missouri South and East between June 3rd and 7th

          • Gary April 11, 2018 at 2:26 pm - Reply

            Jim,

            We can and do get precise all the time. More than ever before. You may not have noticed, but the forecasts for the major northeastern storms have been predicted months in advance all season. And, so many others.

            Gary

            • Jim April 11, 2018 at 3:22 pm - Reply

              Is it going to snow this weekend in KC? Thanks.

              • Gary April 11, 2018 at 4:35 pm

                It appears to me that the trend is for this storm to track too far north for us to see significant snow. It still needs to be monitored, but the upper low must track south of KC or develop just southeast of KC for any significant snow. Now, will there be a few snowflakes Sunday morning? That is the most likely scenario at the moment.

  4. KS Jones April 11, 2018 at 9:06 am - Reply

    At this time of year our average high temperature is roughly 66° and our low is 42°.
    If the NWS forecast is correct, the warm-up out here will be short-lived. Our high this coming weekend will be our average low.
    Here’s the NWS forecast for this area north of Manhattan.
    Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. 
    Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 47. 
    Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 83. 
    Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. 
    Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. 
    Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.
    Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. 
    Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. 
    Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 43.
    Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 25.
    Monday: Sunny, with a high near 55.
    Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38.
    Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

  5. NoSnowflake April 11, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

    Why does this blog no longer feature any actual forecasts?

    I thought the mantra has always been “don’t just look at models — ANALYZE in context and then make a forecast…”

    It seems this blog only posts model images these days and never actually sets forth a forecast.

    This post doesn’t help people make decisions about the weekend. I get that a storm may be in the area, but that’s really no different than any other mid-April weekend in Kansas.

    • JasonAtt April 11, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

      That’s not true. The forecast for today never had a storm in it and today is mid-April.

      When analyzing a data set don’t you first have to define the data set? Wouldn’t sharing the models help to define what is to be analyzed?

      How does this post not help plan your weekend? It is going to be wet and colder. Dress warm or don’t go outside. Don’t wear cotton outer layers.

    • Gary April 11, 2018 at 2:32 pm - Reply

      I do often put in the weather timeline. The forecast is quite obviously in other places, but I will attempt to add it in each day.

      Gary

  6. DanT April 11, 2018 at 9:09 am - Reply

    Jim, On a large scale level the LRC is good at showing when we can expect storms to move through based on previous cycles. On a surface level you still have to wait until the surface features setup as the system approaches. There are still so many variables to take into account. You asked if it will snow in KC this weekend? 4 days out and with the current data available it looks like there is a 30% chance of snow this weekend. As we get closer and really see what the system is going to do that could increase or decrease.

    • NoSnowflake April 11, 2018 at 9:17 am - Reply

      DanT –

      With all due respect, some of the questions come because Gary himself has repeatedly claimed, over the years, that his theory can indeed help him poinpoint even mesoscale (small scale) features weeks and months ahead of time. He points to that forecast for the Superbowl out east years ago as an example — when it warmed way up that day and then snow crashed in the next day (or later that night?). He used that level of precision and detail as a demonstration of what the LRC is capable of.

      Now, all people are asking is for at least SOME detail — not even that superbowl level, but at least something about the weekend. Gary has repeatedly, this week, refused to make an actual meaningful forecast for the weekend, rather he posts model progs and then says “the storm fits the LRC perfectly” but doesn’t say what the storm will actually look like.

      If the most his theory can say is “well, we may see snow! Or the system may dig deeper to our south … or the snow may lift north to the Dakotas…or the whole thing may sheer out a bit and get lost in the flow…” well then that is essentially usesless, as it provides no guidance to anyone. And if you review this week’s posts, that is essentially the approach gary has taken.

      People have repeatedly asked a fairly straightforward and simple question all week: without needing to know an actual amount for a particular city block: Will it snow in the KC region this weekend? That question has never been answered by Gary.

      Likewise, when someone asked what his theory portends for a late hard freeze this spring, Gary droned on about climatology, but then never really committed to a forecast one way or the other.

      I get that a missed forecast stings, but the fact that he misses sometimes appears to have made him gun-shy for ever issuing any meaningful forecast lately. Pretty weak sauce.

      • DanT April 11, 2018 at 9:38 am - Reply

        The track record of the LRC (as we know) has its strengths and weaknesses- However in his blog today he stated “This storm is then forecast to go through a transition and by Sunday, some of that cold air blasts south, and there is a decent chance Kansas City will have snow for the third straight Sunday.”
        So with that it appears he answered the question about snow? If I’m reading this correctly?

      • VERNON T. TAGGERT April 11, 2018 at 9:55 am - Reply

        Lile

      • VERNON T. TAGGERT April 11, 2018 at 9:56 am - Reply

        I meant LIKE!

      • Gary April 11, 2018 at 2:31 pm - Reply

        We are doing the finer details NoSnowflake. We lay it out there much more often than you are recognizing. We have a lot going on!!

        Gary

  7. Richard April 11, 2018 at 9:33 am - Reply

    I just want to know what Garys thoughts are for the weekend.
    Analysis.
    Shortened blog writeups with models and how many days above 70 ?
    We are all aware it has been cold Gary.
    I know you do not have to do a blog every day. But whats your thoughts on Sunday ?

  8. Anonymous April 11, 2018 at 9:45 am - Reply

    We will know whats going to happen on Sunday, about 10 AM on Sunday

  9. Craig April 11, 2018 at 9:51 am - Reply

    Wow.
    I’ve been a part of this blog since the beginning. I was even one of those who attended the original “blogger meeting” held at KSHB about 10 years ago.
    I’ll always be a member because I find Gary’s daily insights to be helpful. However, it’s sad to see that Gary/LRC-hating trolls have taken over the daily threads. It was a lot more fun when we were all simply weather enthusiasts who gathered here to discuss what was happening or coming. Sadly, this site has turned into some sort of daily dissertation review by folks whose apparent claim to fame is that they can type with two fingers.
    I, for one, hope that Gary is able to patiently deal with all of his critics and continues to provide a forum where we can simply discuss the weather.

    • Brian April 11, 2018 at 10:19 am - Reply

      Craig.

      I remember that meeting.

      But, one cannot deny that many people have left the blog due to the unending search for answers regarding the LRC. I don’t discount the questions of many people, common discourse and discussion is what is needed to continue to prove the basis of the LRC theory. There will always be people who ask questions, and those people should be encouraged to do so.

      I am not a fan of being a lemming. I, like you, value the forecasts…but I also value gaining insights into how the LRC may actually work. Having conversations about topics helps everyone to learn, including those support the LRC and those that don’t.

      Finally, Gary is weather forecaster and an adult. He’s in a tough business and has thick skin. I don’t speak for him, but I am sure discussions about the validity of his theory are welcomed…since this is an open forum blog and he has control of the comments through moderation.

    • Gary April 11, 2018 at 2:28 pm - Reply

      Exactly Craig, there is very immature bashing. This will not be allowed in the blog. Let’s have true scientific discussion. Anyone with questions should read the peer reviewed paper, as the answers are written and published. There is more we will learn in the next few decades. Yes, decades, and there will be a day when the rest of my peers will come on board.

      Gary

  10. Scott April 11, 2018 at 10:06 am - Reply

    The solution is simple, but may need to be repeated many times. Please answer the questions of bloggers.

  11. C.C April 11, 2018 at 10:08 am - Reply

    If I do remember correctly Gary did say he saw this weekend as a potential severe weather setup months ago! Also for another at the end of April.

    • JoeK April 11, 2018 at 10:27 am - Reply

      CC
      Yes, Gary/LRC predicted a severe weather outbreak the last week of April for Missouri/Arkansas/Oklahoma and Tennessee. It lines up with the system that came through 47 days prior in March

      • Anonymous by choice April 11, 2018 at 11:04 am - Reply

        Huh? This isn’t the last weekend in April.

        • JoeK April 11, 2018 at 12:16 pm - Reply

          What is your question anonymous? Reread the conversation, I was confirming that Gary / LRC did in fact predict s severe weather set-up the last week of April.

    • Gary April 11, 2018 at 2:23 pm - Reply

      Yes, you are 100% accurate. We did forecast April 13 – 17 and the end of the month. Spot On, well, it hasn’t happened yet.

      Hey bloggers. Our moderator is going through and cleaning up the blog. This is not a bash the LRC blog. If you would entertain a scientific discussion, then let’s do that professionally.

      Gary

      • Jim April 11, 2018 at 2:43 pm - Reply

        Completely serious here. Not being condescending, but where is the line between questioning and “bashing?” I felt like my comments (for the most part) have questioned the LRC.

        • Gary April 11, 2018 at 4:40 pm - Reply

          Jim,

          It isn’t really a fine line. Let’s just have an open discussion, and when it is a topic brought up. Again, now that we do have a peer reviewed paper, the person should read through that work and see if the answers are in there. We have actually made some significant advances in our understanding of the cycling pattern in the past few years. If you have any specific questions, please let me know. I am all about helping you understand more about the LRC. So many just come in here and have fun bashing. That is not what this blog is about. We are here to learn, and share a positive experience in tracking the weather. So, let’s share. I could just keep this secret, right? For 15 years, in this blog, we have been sharing this with you opening myself and my team up to tremendous criticism. We will continue to share, and we will continue to be successful at an increasing clip, by successful it means multiple aspects; accuracy continues to improve, and acceptance from my peers in meteorology grows. Hey bloggers, did you see that JD Rudd used the LRC to accurately predict opening day in Cleveland, their home opener against the Royals? Yes, he called his 60 day forecast was accurate because he used “the 2017-2018 pattern”. Well, we know what he used.

          Gary

        • Heat Miser April 11, 2018 at 8:40 pm - Reply

          It has a lot to do with tone…be nice and propose your disagreements if you have any. Coming on and just saying the LRC sucks, or Gary is full of it would be bashing.

  12. REAL HUMEDUDE April 11, 2018 at 10:20 am - Reply

    Gary is a weather man guys, maybe the most targeted profession in the world. Weatherman always has to take jabs for a missed forecast, its part of the job and I am sure he can deal with us. He is likely his own biggest critic, what we dish him is nothing although it would be nice to give him some credit when credit is due. He does this because he’s passionate about weather, we come because we share that passion and cant get it anywhere else. I also want more specific forecasts, much like his super bowl forecast, I also have asked where are the forecasts now? This is touted as a long range forecasting tool yet no season forecasts other than snowfall total? We do Winter but not Spring? Why arbitrarily ignore one season and focus on another? Especially at this stage of this years LRC, we’ve had 4 complete cycles, this should be nailed down and all figured out. He had perfect opportunity to tell us that Spring would be cold, and feature a few late season snowfalls but that was either completely missed by LRC, or he did see the signs but wasn’t confident enough to go out on the limb.
    Gary , Go OUT ON MORE LIMBS! You rock man, most accurate station again this year, have the confidence to make that bold forecast! We do appreciate what you put into this for us, don’t be afraid to trust your LRC gut.

    • Brian April 11, 2018 at 10:28 am - Reply

      Good comment. And I wholeheartedly agree with you assessment.

      The CPC just issued their long range forecast for the second half of April. They are seeing an extended period of cooler than average temperatures.

      This would be the same type of forecast I would like Gary to make regarding spring, summer, fall, and winter. Tell us, using the LRC, what is going to happen with temperature, possible weather systems, rainfall amounts, etc.

      Don’t tell us, after the fact, that the LRC predicted the snowfall or the cold temperatures. Because, like you, I don’t care if it already happened…I want to know before.

      On a personal note, I have yet to be able to fish this spring. Can’t get the crappie to bite. My farm pond is right around 47 degrees and they are sluggish and slow. I need some warm temperatures, not just for three or four days, but for the rest of spring!

  13. Lary Gezak April 11, 2018 at 10:36 am - Reply

    This is absurd. 36 comments on the bashing of the LRC… and not one about our first severe weather threat Friday. That should be our main concern: the weather. Whether you believe in the LRC or not, complaining about it won’t help anything. This is a weather blog for us to talk about weather. We should also be grateful Gary gives everyone the chance to communicate and interact with each other about a passion we all share.

    I am not a “troll” I am trying to get back to using this blog for what it is. The weather is going to get exciting this weekend, yet all you people care about is whether the LRC predicted it or not.

    • Brian April 11, 2018 at 10:42 am - Reply

      This comment is disappointing, simply because the weather and the LRC go hand in hand. It is a weather blog, but it is also an LRC-centric blog, because Gary has put his energy and effort in developing the LRC as a formidable weather tool.

      Questioning the theory is not complaining about theory and again, it is an open source forum that allows us to discuss all things related to weather.

      Finally, when we arrive at Friday, we will have a better chance to know what the weather is going to do regarding storms, because the weather models will hopefully be accurate in their forecast.

      But, for me, in the meantime, I will enjoy the warmer temperatures this afternoon and evening.

      • REAL HUMEDUDE April 11, 2018 at 11:08 am - Reply

        3K NAM really showcasing some supercell structures for Friday, all modes of severe weather are possible in this setup. No reason to get too worked up until we get more data…… if any Morning convection materializes its all going to be way different and throw these models out the window. Really have to wait until Friday am to really get a handle on this…….

        Brian – I can practically guarantee you the fish will be waking up and the bite will be hot and heavy starting tomorrow into Friday. Spinnerbait would be my weapon of choice in this wind, go get some slabs!

    • Heat Miser April 11, 2018 at 8:41 pm - Reply

      I think Gary said he expects most severe weather Friday to be considerably south and south east of KC

      • Gary April 11, 2018 at 8:57 pm - Reply

        If you were to show me the set up at the surface on Friday in any other year, I would say thunderstorms are likely with torrential rain and some severe weather Friday evening. But, it is this years pattern, and we had a similar set up a couple of weeks ago. Granted, it was colder and there wasn’t a warm and humid air mass in place, but the thunderstorms formed way down to the south and east. So, this is why I lean in that direction again, with this situation. Let me see if I lean into the other direction by tomorrow.

        Gary

  14. Chris S. April 11, 2018 at 11:19 am - Reply

    Here is my forecast based on Gary’s words.
    There is a decent chance Kansas City will have snow for the third straight Sunday. So to answer the question if it will snow on Sunday…..YES! As far as the severe weather chances this weekend….the risk near KC is still somewhat in question, but the risks southeast of our area are more significant and will shift east on Saturday and Sunday. So, south and east of KC looks to be in the crosshairs for something severe. There you have it. Gary’s forecast.

    • Richard April 11, 2018 at 11:49 am - Reply

      ” the risks will shit east on Saturday and Sunday.”
      Thats the way it goes with storms. West to east.

      I think Gary has a lot of irons in the fire to be answering questions here. It is what it is.
      In the past he had more time. Not so much anymore.

      • LYITC41 April 11, 2018 at 1:10 pm - Reply

        I know that was just a typo but still funny.

        • Richard April 11, 2018 at 4:03 pm - Reply

          typo ?
          Oh, s**t !
          yeah typo !
          meant to be shift !

  15. WeathermanKumke April 11, 2018 at 3:08 pm - Reply

    That dryline bulge on the 3km NAM 😍😍

    • DanT April 11, 2018 at 5:01 pm - Reply

      Look at the possible Dew Point range across Oklahoma on the 3km NAM at 20z. There are some factors coming together. There will also be plenty of wind shear to work with later in the day. I wonder if there will be a moderate risk issued tomorrow or Friday?

      • WeathermanKumke April 11, 2018 at 5:03 pm - Reply

        Wouldn’t be surprised if they go Moderate tomorrow during the afternoon update and then stick with that

  16. Lary Gezak April 11, 2018 at 3:40 pm - Reply

    New NAM does not look promising for Friday

    • WeathermanKumke April 11, 2018 at 4:11 pm - Reply

      Actually it does. STP around 5. Dryline bulge around emporia as convection developes. Broken Line/Multi cell convection to start before it hits stateline into linear mode.

      • Lary Gezak April 11, 2018 at 5:09 pm - Reply

        I like what I’m hearing…

  17. Richard April 11, 2018 at 4:01 pm - Reply

    On Facebook Gary says the wx team finished the Spring special today which will be aired next Thurs, 4/19.
    Better late than never.

  18. VERNON T. TAGGERT April 11, 2018 at 4:27 pm - Reply

    I am in construction management and scheduling and I appreciate Gary and you people, helps me decide when and not when. Keep it up!

  19. JoeK April 11, 2018 at 6:21 pm - Reply

    Kumke,

    In attempting to get a handle on this weekends storm, I still believe the majority of the action will be far south and east of us. The LRC has given us the road map. I originally felt the seasonal differences would impact the dynamics enough to produce more results in the heart of KC, but now I am wondering if this years LRC will continue to leave us with the same results without so much as a twist here and there? The models have been all over the place ( yet again) with that said, if this does in fact hit far southern Missouri and points East, it may be safe to assume that beyond the few larger storms during that first cycle, we will continue to see the same. just some random thoughts and I hope you get a chance to do some productive chasing

    • WeathermanKumke April 11, 2018 at 11:27 pm - Reply

      Yes agreed with you that Arkansas and Southern Missouri get the most of the severe weather. Probably 90-95% of it. I still believe we see some severe weather around KC. A couple cells firing along the dryline in Kansas with storm motions more NNE as that dryline/cold front moves through. JoCo typically gets hit with these setups where a storm developes across franklin/Douglas county and moves towards the 435 loop. Given the timing and the dynamics, fully believe that’s possible. We probably won’t see tornadoes or the widespread wind threat that places like Little Rock and Springfield down to Cape Girardeau Missouri by early Saturday morning with the Tennessee valley getting slammed on Saturday. But a nice thunderstorm with some quarter sized hail and some 65-70mph is possible in our area.

      Glad you are seeing a lot of the same stuff I am.

  20. Lary Gezak April 11, 2018 at 9:54 pm - Reply

    3KM looking good… 65+ dew points, around 70 degrees temp, single cells, possibly with supercells, developing

  21. Three7s April 12, 2018 at 7:26 am - Reply

    Looks like all the storms will be extremely scattered with nothing organized. Not impressed.

  22. Lary Gezak April 12, 2018 at 7:28 am - Reply

    Read the NWS Forecast Discussion… says the ingredients are there for super-cellular development. However, things will be scattered and not a widespread “line” still excited to see how this plays out. Wonder what the SPC does today?

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