A Look Into The Warm-Up & The Next Storm

/A Look Into The Warm-Up & The Next Storm

A Look Into The Warm-Up & The Next Storm

Good morning bloggers,

Finally! A warm-up. I have not done my adequate analysis on the number of 70°+ days in 2018, but I believe Kansas City has had two of them. TWO 70°+ days so far on day 100 of the year. Yes, today, is the 100th day of 2018, if I did my math right.  And, two of them have been 70 degrees or higher. Last year we had around two weeks worth of 70 degree days or higher by this date.  I will work on showing this graphically on the air tonight.

A ridge aloft is moving out into the plains, but the warm up will get cut short by the weekend, and clouds may influence the warmer days Thursday and Friday.  Guess which storm this is? We are moving into day one of the fifth LRC Cycle and this storm is right on schedule.

1

The map above shows a fairly flat ridge centered over the Rocky Mountains, and look at this map below, which shows the major storm developing and tracking into Missouri.

2

Could it snow again? Some of the models have snow for the third straight Sunday. Take a look at this European Model forecast that came out while you were sleeping last night.

Screen Shot 2018-04-10 at 7.48.47 AM

Gary

2018-04-11T07:53:15+00:00 April 10th, 2018|General|46 Comments

46 Comments

  1. VERNON T. TAGGERT April 10, 2018 at 8:13 am - Reply

    NO WAY!

  2. Mr. Pete April 10, 2018 at 8:13 am - Reply

    Spring outdoor soccer has been miserable this season.

  3. Lary Gezak April 10, 2018 at 8:32 am - Reply

    I and probably many others want to know when we’re getting storms/severe weather…

    • Brittany April 10, 2018 at 8:53 am - Reply

      I’m fine with storms, but would prefer to have a very minimal severe weather season. I’d rather have snow than golf ball size hail/wind damage/tornadoes any day.

    • Gary April 10, 2018 at 8:53 am - Reply

      It will be close in the date range of April 24 to 30. This system we have now will return at the end of May with a rather good chance that the risk shifts west, due to seasonal differences. We have some other target date ranges as well.

      Gary

      • Lary Gezak April 10, 2018 at 9:01 am - Reply

        What about this Friday? Seems as if we will be fighting a cap all day

      • NoSnowflake April 10, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

        What are those target date ranges?

  4. REAL HUMEDUDE April 10, 2018 at 8:52 am - Reply

    Cycle #5 will be a big time producer around here, I expect a lot more punch from these systems this cycle. Cycle #2 was almost a complete bust, made sense that Cycle #4 would also have some storms struggling to produce. We had a mixed bag in #4, much better than #2 but still lacking for some areas. #5 will be the severe weather cycle, May will have some big storms but not until we finally start to see 70-80s around here.

  5. NoSnowflake April 10, 2018 at 9:06 am - Reply

    Why no actual forecast in this post?

    • JasonAtt April 10, 2018 at 10:23 am - Reply

      unfollow

    • LYITC41 April 10, 2018 at 10:26 am - Reply

      If he’s wrong it kinda makes the theory look bad.

      • f00dl3 April 10, 2018 at 10:55 am - Reply

        He predicted 21″ of snow this winter using the LRC.

  6. Richard April 10, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply

    Blog writeup seemed to end abruptly.
    What are you thoughts on the weekend Gary

  7. Heat Miser April 10, 2018 at 11:22 am - Reply

    Snow on Sunday!!!! :-O

    • VERNON T. TAGGERT April 10, 2018 at 1:19 pm - Reply

      Really, I kinda think that is what I’m seeing

  8. Brian April 10, 2018 at 11:25 am - Reply

    Models, Models, Models.

  9. Roger April 10, 2018 at 11:52 am - Reply

    We’ll see how severe weather season turns out. It will be fascinating to see the dryline setups. Maybe single digit dewpoints to the west and 70 degrees to the east?

    • LYITC41 April 10, 2018 at 12:43 pm - Reply

      If everything else was there (no cap, shear, etc.) you would probably have explosive development w/ a DP range like that.

  10. KCHog April 10, 2018 at 12:06 pm - Reply

    When do you predict the last freeze? If this past weeks cold cycles back in May we could have an incredibly late freeze this year. It seems to keep shattering record low records each cycle.

    • Gary April 10, 2018 at 2:56 pm - Reply

      KCHog,

      As the days get longer and longer, and the nights get shorter and shorter, the potential for a freeze will eventually end. The potential for a hard freeze ends even earlier. The average last freeze date closer to KC is within the next ten days. The latest freeze ever in KC recorded history is 32 degrees on May 6, 1944. There was a record low of 33 degrees on May 12, 2013. And, it was as low as 35 degrees as late as May 29, 1947. These late cold mornings were only one to three degrees above freezing. So, to say it is impossible, would be too strong of a statement. A freeze as late as nearly the end of May is likely a very remote possibility. But, if you look at our history, with the last officially recorded freeze being May 6th, it is highly unlikely that there will be a freeze after this date, since it has never happened before. So, temperatures down into the 30s are somewhat likely, given this years LRC, but it most likely will fall short of an historic freeze.

      Gary

      • KCHog April 10, 2018 at 3:18 pm - Reply

        Thanks Gary!!

      • KS Jones April 10, 2018 at 7:21 pm - Reply

        I’ve heard people in Marshall County Ksnsas tell about how they awoke on Memorial Day 1947 to find their lush gardens had been killed.
        https://books.google.com/books?id=EGCEvF_eumkC&pg=RA1-PA73&lpg=RA1-PA73#v=onepage&q&f=true
        Climatological data. Nebraska
        National Climatic Data Center (March 4, 1948)
        While mean temperature and average precipitation for the year 1947 were very near normal, this was a year of great contrasts and freakish weather. On the 4th of January a severe cold wave settled down over the southeastern portion of the State, where two stations recorded temperature 28° below zero, within 1° of the lowest of record. The lowest temperature in the entire State for the year thus occurred in the extreme southeastern corner, which is usually the warmest. On May 29 the latest killing frost or freezing temperatures of record occurred over most of the State, . .  June was the wettest month of record, and severe flooding occurred at many localities. . . The 3-month period beginning with July 26 was unseasonably warm; August had the highest average temperature of record over the eastern portion of the State, and October was the warmest of record over the State as a whole. September 3 was extremely hot along the eastern portion of the Kansas border, when a temperature of 112° occurred at 2 stations. This was the highest temperature in the State during the entire year, and higher than ever recorded before in September in the eastern portion of the State. After the unprecedentedly wet June, the remainder of the summer and early autumn were very dry over the southcentral and southeastern portions of the State. Following the extemely warm October, November was unseasonably cold, particularly in the extreme western portion of the State, where at many stations the month was colder than December.

  11. Phillip April 10, 2018 at 12:43 pm - Reply

    Such a detailed blog today 🤔😂😂 in other words… I have absolutely no idea if we’ll be getting rain or snow this weekend, but here’s ONE modeling showing snow 🙄

  12. REAL HUMEDUDE April 10, 2018 at 1:14 pm - Reply

    12Z NAM looking a lot better for strong storms along Stateline Late Friday night into Saturday AM. Still very suspect, GFS blows it through before any big storms pop. Snow a non-factor for the weekend per current models unless you are well to north of metro

    • Kurt April 10, 2018 at 2:41 pm - Reply

      Hope the 12Z GFS was having an off run, takes the wet system around the 21st over the southern part of the US, still not getting anything going up here on this run, totally opposite of the 06Z GFS. These models can’t seem to grab ahold of any particular track or what the impacts will be. If we get into May without anything meaningful, the dryness is going to be a big problem up here.

      • Gary April 10, 2018 at 2:57 pm - Reply

        The 12z developed some blocking over Canada and it pushed that storm way to the south.

        Gary

        • Lary Gezak April 10, 2018 at 3:12 pm - Reply

          Does that 12z NAM give us a formidable severe threat Friday evening?

          • Gary April 10, 2018 at 4:06 pm - Reply

            No, it does have some thunderstorms, no doubt, but the better conditions are way to the southeast. But…..let’s keep monitoring it.

            Gary

        • Kurt April 10, 2018 at 4:34 pm - Reply

          Thanks, wondered what the culprit was. When we want blocking we don’t get it and when we don’t want blocking we get it. Never a happy medium. Becoming impatient waiting for the spring rains, going to miss my mushroom hunting 2 years in a row….argh!

      • REAL HUMEDUDE April 10, 2018 at 3:23 pm - Reply

        Kurt, not neccessarily. As cold as it’s been you aren’t behind any curve to speak of, vegetation is still somewhat dormant. I’ve seen it very, very dry into mid-May with severley stunted grass and suddenly get wet in time to grow a great hay crop. But rather than cutting hay in early June like usual we were cutting in July, it just set us back 4 or 5 weeks but we still made it just fine. I just can’t see a scenario where you stay dry up there, last year was an anomaly

  13. Richard April 10, 2018 at 2:03 pm - Reply

    Don’t care about the models this far out.
    Would like to know what Gary thinks.

    He must have been in a rush this morning.

  14. Lary Gezak April 10, 2018 at 2:27 pm - Reply

    Look at that NAM for Friday night… severe threat here if that holds true

  15. Mr. Pete April 10, 2018 at 2:51 pm - Reply

    It just rained on me all the way home from the office. Where the heck did the sun go??

    Pete

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 10, 2018 at 3:25 pm - Reply

      It was a paper thin band of mostly sprinkles….. you hit it just right I guess. Next cycle that could be a random afternoon thunderstorm!

  16. Jim April 10, 2018 at 3:00 pm - Reply

    Models before events, victory dances for the LRC afterwards. Starting to figure out how this works.

    • Mr. Pete April 10, 2018 at 4:45 pm - Reply

      That’s funny!

    • Anonymous by choice April 10, 2018 at 6:59 pm - Reply

      You nailed it!! That’s exactly how it works.

  17. Stl78(winon,mn) April 10, 2018 at 4:42 pm - Reply

    I sure hope today’s 12z Euro is wrong!!!

  18. DanT April 10, 2018 at 4:58 pm - Reply

    So many unknowns just analyzing the different models etc. Will we have low clouds that hold down the instability or does everything (dryline) blow through here by 1pm and everything forms well off to the east?

  19. Emaw April 10, 2018 at 7:53 pm - Reply

    How much snow should we expect this weekend? The map has no totals, or is it in metric and I just can’t see it because it’s the euro? What’s the Canadian say?

  20. Weatherby Tom April 10, 2018 at 7:55 pm - Reply

    Just had a brief downpour here, whats that about? Saw no predictions for rain today.

    • Gary April 10, 2018 at 10:24 pm - Reply

      We have had it in our forecast all day! Jeff was on at 11 AM this morning and he predicted it. Just sayin!

      Gary

  21. Roger April 11, 2018 at 12:51 am - Reply

    I think the low level moisture will be way too shallow to promote many thunderstorms near KC. Currently, dewpoints are only in the 50’s over a good portion of the Gulf of Mexico.

  22. WeathermanKumke April 11, 2018 at 2:45 am - Reply

    LRC has severe weather on Friday and what do you know, that enhanced risk is just south of the viewing area. Expecting that to eventually include I-70 Southward down state line. Tonight’s NAM model clearly shows that all severe weather modes are possible.

    Looks like I’ll be chasing 😉

    • JoeK April 11, 2018 at 2:51 am - Reply

      Kumke

      I think your best chance will be South and East of us. Much more likely from 44 South/East. Just my opinion

      • WeathermanKumke April 11, 2018 at 5:30 am - Reply

        For widespread stuff absolutely. I like JoCo’s chance of seeing a severe thunderstorm warning get issued. That 60-80kt shear should make things a little bit more unstable even if T/DT is 71/60. We probably won’t see tornadoes here or super large hail but some 65-70mph winds and some quarter size hail isn’t out of the question. The more tornado threat is probably south off Clinton Missouri toward the Boonies of the Ozarks

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