April Arctic Blast Arrives & Signs Of Spring

/April Arctic Blast Arrives & Signs Of Spring

April Arctic Blast Arrives & Signs Of Spring

Good morning bloggers,

I would like to take three minutes of your time to begin this blog. I just made a quick video explaining the cycling pattern and how we had very similar conversations in the previous cycles of this years pattern:

I went back to watch the video from December 28th, and if we would only have used the LRC, then we would never have wasted our time with the models that showed all that snow in our region. But, that is a very difficult thing to do. We are learning.

Speaking of models…..oh no, here we go again.  We have to monitor Sunday closely. The January version of this had no moisture and it was dry, but the April version of this set up has some moisture to work with and Sunday morning could be quite interesting:

2

Very dry air will be in place, so IF we can get into the early morning precipitation bands, then snow and sleet could accumulate.  Let’s see how this sets up on today’s models.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Partly cloudy and dry. The temperatures will be falling to near freezing by evening.
  • Tonight:  There is a 20% chance of a few brief snow showers, or maybe there will be a few snow flurries. No accumulation expected.  The sky will clear out with a record low likely. Low: 14°
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny with increasing afternoon clouds. High: 41°
  • Sunday:  Cloudy with a 60% chance of a mixture of precipitation. There may be some snow/sleet accumulation in a few spots near KC. High:  38°

Our weather team will be out at the Nebraska Furniture Mart on Saturday morning at 11 AM. Come on by and get your name in the drawing. We will be giving away four pairs of Royals tickets, and 2 books of It’s A Sunny Life. Meet our weather team, Sunny The Weather Dog, and see Storm Tracker and our storm chasers.  See you tomorrow. Have a great Friday Night In The Big Town and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go to the Weather2020.com blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

2018-04-08T09:13:01+00:00 April 6th, 2018|General|81 Comments

81 Comments

  1. NoSnowflake April 6, 2018 at 8:43 am - Reply

    Gary –

    Are you going to do a post-mortem; a review/grading of your winter forecast?

    Are you going to issue a spring forecast to target specific May/June dates for severe weather in the KC region?

    • Gary April 6, 2018 at 8:56 am - Reply

      On the spring forecast, the severe weather forecasts are in our special. We just had our special real late this year as it isn’t for two more weeks. On the grading of the winter forecast, I haven’t done that yet. For me, as you can see in the video, we have learned so much more this year. I need to go back into cycle one and see if I could have done better at the winter forecast. But, I would probably grade it better than some of you out there. We have had 9 accumulations. I thought we would have around 7 to 9 accumulations of snow this season. The numbers should have been a 5″ snow, two 3 inches, three 2 inchers, and three 1 inchers. Add these up and without even a 6″ or higher snowfall, this would still add up to 20″. So, we did get the storm systems I thought we would get, but to only end up at 6.9″ is almost impossible to do, and yet we did it and experienced it. On the cold and dryness over the winter, I would say we did pretty good. So, I would grade it as a B. We can do better.

      • Heat Miser April 6, 2018 at 11:06 am - Reply

        rofl…Gary! The prediction isn’t how many storms we get, it’s how much snow we end up with.

      • Bobbie April 6, 2018 at 12:35 pm - Reply

        Snow total prediction was way off…no way it should be a “b”

  2. Jim April 6, 2018 at 8:53 am - Reply

    Gary

    Do you coordinate with your weather team? They have a video up right now saying a dusting to an inch in some parts. Are you saying they are wrong?

    Thanks

    • Gary April 6, 2018 at 8:59 am - Reply

      Yes, and I left them a note. A dusting to an inch isn’t much. I would like them to be bold.

      • Gary April 6, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

        The new NAM does have a little band that intensifies this evening. Forecasting little events is what we are used to in this years LRC, so my morning team was smart to keep this as a possibility!

        • Craig April 6, 2018 at 10:43 am - Reply

          It also shows that little band on Sunday quite well, too!

          • Craig April 6, 2018 at 12:23 pm - Reply

            And upon closer inspection, that NAM has snow in Johnson County for a 5-6 hour duration this evening. Might still get an inch after all.

  3. Richard April 6, 2018 at 8:53 am - Reply

    Gary
    Hate to say it, but, yesterday on here I mentioned that MT was saying Sunday looked more stout, and accumulations could happen.
    I discounted it and called him a bozo because you had not even talked about it yet because you were so focussed on todays event.
    And NOW you want to watch models again after what just happened with todays “storm” ?

    • Gary April 6, 2018 at 9:00 am - Reply

      Richard,

      That has been in everyones forecast. Just saying?

      Gary

      • Richard April 6, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

        Gary
        Just sayin…
        You are the pro. You are, so to speak, the keader of the pack. The pied piper. The author of the LRC. So use it, and we will too.

        • Richard April 6, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

          * leader of the pack
          We come here for the LRC and you, the most accurate. “Everyone else” is not who we follow. Not who we believe.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 6, 2018 at 9:11 am - Reply

      Well, in all fairness… MT is a bozo lol. I love him as a TV personality but he is often wrong as a met, and his references of flame throwers as a description of Pacific/SW flow annoy me. Sunday could be a decent little storm, nothing to get carried away about. Little rain/snow mix, wont hut anybody and most will welcome some wet stuff. 1/2″ for the lucky spots and prolly more like 1/4″ for most places

      • Kathy April 6, 2018 at 9:45 am - Reply

        Hume….I totally agree. I also like him but the whole “Pacific flamethrower” thing annoys me. Now the other male met over there is really interesting and I enjoy his weather analyses and blogs.

  4. Richard April 6, 2018 at 8:59 am - Reply

    Yeah, I’m done. Not done with the blog. But with Gary wanting to watch models when he, himself says “and if we would only have used the LRC, then we would never have wasted our time with the models that showed all that snow in our region.”

    Now watch models again for Sunday ??

    Gary, I don’t get it

    • LYITC41 April 6, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

      Flip Flop. The models are poison eye candy. Can’t keep your eye off them but they’ll suck you in and rut ro, wrong again!

    • Gary April 6, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

      We keep learning. You can just use the LRC there has to be a bland. When I make my forecast for each day, each week, each month, each winter, I blende!!

      • Richard April 6, 2018 at 10:27 am - Reply

        Gary
        Now you really ARE confusing me !!
        You now say you use a blend. Then why did you say in your blog writeup that it was wasted time using the models for todays event ??

        One more question. On 810 this morning you made fun of the city crews for salting the roads. You don’t really want to do that as a met. Make fun of other professions. When you and other outlets were calling for the snow up until yesterday. They cannot wait until the last minute to treat roads and get their plows ready.

        • Craig April 6, 2018 at 10:46 am - Reply

          Gary, is there any way you can devise a mute button for this blog? A few folks here…who clearly have too much time on their hands…need to be on an ignore list.

          • LYITC41 April 6, 2018 at 11:09 am - Reply

            People w/ too much time on their hands….hmmm.

          • Patti April 6, 2018 at 11:35 am - Reply

            Agreed. I get tired of Gary being lectured.

          • f00dl3 April 6, 2018 at 11:43 am - Reply

            I disagree. You don’t silence people just because they don’t agree with you. Unless your China.

            • JoeK April 6, 2018 at 12:54 pm - Reply

              Foodl

              Let’s not twist their intent, they simply want a mute button to ignore the ignorant comments and I completely agree

    • MMike April 6, 2018 at 9:28 am - Reply

      Richard,

      OMG……………………times 10

      Be careful posting stuff from your twitter account in the future…you goofed up last time and I caught it. You caught it later on as the post you made was no longer available. It’s okay, I know…..I have known all along. Let’s not make a big deal of it.

      Have a great rest of the day.

      • Brian April 6, 2018 at 12:20 pm - Reply

        This is an interesting post…

      • Richard April 6, 2018 at 4:16 pm - Reply

        ?? Yeah that was a weird one.
        Ok, thanks, you have a great rest of your day too MMike 😏 Its almost over and it’s Friday !

        I went off the rails here earlier. Sorry Gary

    • Heat Miser April 6, 2018 at 11:08 am - Reply

      because what else are you going to watch…lol

      • Richard April 6, 2018 at 4:07 pm - Reply

        not watching snow thats for sure lol

  5. Bsmike April 6, 2018 at 9:09 am - Reply

    WOW. WENT FROM 2-6 inches to nothing.

  6. MikeL April 6, 2018 at 9:10 am - Reply

    Instead of WEATHER2020 the site should be called HINDSIGHT2020! (lol…just kidding)

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 6, 2018 at 9:13 am - Reply

      MikeL………LMAO
      good one, but so is life, am I right?

      • MikeL April 6, 2018 at 9:19 am - Reply

        Sadly, you are right. lol

    • LYITC41 April 6, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

      Awesome!

  7. Bsmike April 6, 2018 at 9:19 am - Reply

    That was great !!! Ha ha

  8. kstater April 6, 2018 at 9:53 am - Reply

    Although nothing to get super excited about, Gary is correct, The 12Z nam shows a pretty solid line dropping .5-1.5 inches tonight through most of the area. That would be better than the dusting at best it was showing.

  9. Emaw April 6, 2018 at 9:58 am - Reply

    Ok so now it’s Sunday, come on bloggers hit me with a 6-10″ model fotecast, there’s gotta be 1 out there somewhere!

    • Stl78(winon,mn) April 6, 2018 at 2:08 pm - Reply

      Hell yeah….6 to 10😉

  10. RickMcKC April 6, 2018 at 10:03 am - Reply

    Wow, that is a pretty convincing video, Gary. Obviously, you are still in the research phase of this LRC project and learning much about how to blend it with what the models indicate. Getting that blend right seems to be the key to improved forecasting. Try not to let the sniping get you down. You really are on to something with this.

    With that said … what does the LRC tell you about Sunday’s possibility of snow/rain/etc?

  11. Mr. Pete April 6, 2018 at 10:07 am - Reply

    I told everyone it was going to snow 1-2 inches tonight in KC and I’m sticking to that.

    • Snow Miser April 6, 2018 at 10:20 am - Reply

      It *does* have that “it might snow” vibe outside right now.

  12. Staci April 6, 2018 at 10:30 am - Reply

    Gary,
    Based on the LRC, when would you say the last freeze of the season will be? I’m concerned it could be middle/late May.

    • Gary April 6, 2018 at 11:25 am - Reply

      Staci,

      It will likely turn colder in second half of May, but it would not dip below the mid to upper 30s at the lowest. It just can’t freeze that late here.

      Gary

  13. REAL HUMEDUDE April 6, 2018 at 10:33 am - Reply

    HRRR has looks of a joke of a storm for tonight, it could change but that’s my go to model for now casting. Like if it even flurries it will be over performing y looks to me, NAM does look better but I just don’t buy it. HRRR is by far the most rock solid model we have, only model that accurately portrays the events lately.

  14. Snow Miser April 6, 2018 at 11:08 am - Reply
  15. Tdogg April 6, 2018 at 12:33 pm - Reply

    Big storm is coming!!! Storm Terry/Robert Racy 4.0… gonna be a mess!

  16. Kurt April 6, 2018 at 12:42 pm - Reply

    The last few model runs of the GFS still has the same storm systems, but it appears with the frequent fronts it wipes out the good moisture return and the heaviest precip is off to the east. If the 12Z is close to reality, we’re only look at an inch or so of precip for the majority of April, that’s on the dry side, not sure how this is an improvement for our moderate drought condition up here, we are already below 50% normal YTD, hope that when the weather settles we get some meaningful rain.

  17. Heat Miser April 6, 2018 at 12:45 pm - Reply

    what am I going to do with all the milk and bread I bought? >:(

  18. Emaw April 6, 2018 at 1:09 pm - Reply

    Haha save it for Sunday!

  19. Adam April 6, 2018 at 1:23 pm - Reply

    *Waits for Terry to post link to 12z Canadian for Sunday*

  20. Emaw April 6, 2018 at 1:36 pm - Reply

    And speaking of Sunday, snow lovers I have a theory of my own you might like. It’s called the “ruin another Sunday with crappy weather phenomenon “. Here’s proof.
    1. Christmas weekend – snow
    2. New Years weekend – pipe freezing cold.
    3. Martin Luther King weekend – snow
    4. Super Bowl Sunday – snow.
    5. Easter Sunday – snow and sleet.
    6. This Sunday is the final round of the Masters.
    7. Look out Mother’s Day!
    Will the last 2 on the list continue the trend?
    Chew on that for awhile.

    • Troy Newman April 6, 2018 at 2:53 pm - Reply

      I was just thinking the same thing. When we go to church we have quite a stretch of gravel roads. About every time its snowed here we have had to drive in it and get the car and garage muddy. Its happened about 10 times this year it seems.

  21. Fredd32 April 6, 2018 at 1:48 pm - Reply

    I’ve been pretty lucky with precip in South East Lee’s Summit. I still had puddles in my backyard yesterday afternoon from rain and snow events. It’s crazy how much of a difference there is in different parts of the metro.

  22. Anonymous by choice April 6, 2018 at 1:53 pm - Reply

    Gary writes in today’s blog, “I went back to watch the video from December 28th, and if we would only have used the LRC, then we would never have wasted our time with the models that showed all that snow in our region. But, that is a very difficult thing to do. We are learning.”

    The LRC is touted as the end all, yet it is not used to forecast anything. Interesting dichotomy. Only thing more interesting is Mower Mike creeping on everyone’s Twitter feeds (and probably Facebook posts too).

    • Mark April 6, 2018 at 5:29 pm - Reply

      That’s because you can’t make a detailed forecast from the LRC.

  23. NoBeachHere April 6, 2018 at 2:39 pm - Reply

    The only caveat here is;
    1. Use the LRC and we know probably a dusting to an inch
    2. Watch the models go from 8” to a dusting is a sure sign that the LRC should have been used and trusted
    3. In a way you have to go with the models because it’s a different season, meaning a twist and the storm performs differently.

    Conclusion:
    If the LRC was used and stuck with a dusting to an inch and the storm over performed because of the seasonal difference, twist, then Gary is hammered. Other side, Gary sticks with the higher snow amount and POOF happens, Gary gets hammered.

    I say screw it! Lol
    Enjoy the write Gary

    • Gary April 6, 2018 at 2:58 pm - Reply

      LOL, seriously, LOL. You nailed it!

  24. REAL HUMEDUDE April 6, 2018 at 3:05 pm - Reply

    Is this disturbance directly related to the Snow MCS we had in early February?
    Brett Anthony alluded to that at noon. If so, sorta odd how that system severely over produced while this one is clearly under producing. The same but different I suppose

  25. Richard April 6, 2018 at 3:53 pm - Reply

    Gary or anyone
    Using newest data on models + LRC whats the chances of accumulating snow Sunday.

    • Tdogg April 6, 2018 at 4:01 pm - Reply

      Between 0 and 100%

    • jsquibble April 6, 2018 at 4:01 pm - Reply

      the latest nam shows squat today tomorrow and forever

  26. Richard April 6, 2018 at 4:05 pm - Reply

    Jack Squat it is then. Sounds good.
    Gary is on air. Will see

    • Mr. Pete April 6, 2018 at 4:09 pm - Reply

      What did he say?

      • Richard April 6, 2018 at 4:17 pm - Reply

        Hes on right now

        • Richard April 6, 2018 at 4:19 pm - Reply

          High confidence of snow and graupel Sunday. I did not catch the time frame.
          Looked to come up from the SW ?

  27. Kurt April 6, 2018 at 4:14 pm - Reply

    Cold windy and dry, sunny and dry, warmer and dry, showers forming to the east but warmer and dry. Just make any forecast and add the word dry and that’s St. Joseph for you lol. We are storm avoidance country up here.

  28. Kstater April 6, 2018 at 5:02 pm - Reply

    Well the powercast Gary just posted on Facebook and Twitter looks good for Sunday but both the gfs and nam are very underwhelming so not sure what model it pulls from. I’ve decided to just assume it doesn’t snow and if it does I will get pleasently surprised.

  29. Emaw April 6, 2018 at 6:10 pm - Reply

    I’m guessing the same model as the weather channel their forecast looks very similar.

  30. KS Jones April 6, 2018 at 6:24 pm - Reply

    Just now beginning to get snow flurries out this way. Radar shows the bulk of the system is drifting south into central Kansas.
    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=sln&animate=true

  31. choppy April 6, 2018 at 6:25 pm - Reply

    Sunday will be a non event as well. Any snow we get is followed by rain and above freezing temps. A slushy mess at best for a small amount of time.

  32. Weatherby Tom April 6, 2018 at 8:31 pm - Reply

    Very light snow falling. Better than nothing i suppose, old man winter not going down without a fight

  33. Snow Miser April 6, 2018 at 8:59 pm - Reply

    It’s snowing!

  34. Mr. Pete April 6, 2018 at 9:00 pm - Reply

    Just drove home in a blinding snow.

  35. GolfPro April 6, 2018 at 9:34 pm - Reply

    SOOOO done with Winter!

  36. Emaw April 6, 2018 at 9:46 pm - Reply

    Was there an end of March blog with stats? I don’t remember seeing it, I was just wondering how far below average we fell temperature wise.

  37. Blue Flash April 7, 2018 at 7:09 am - Reply

    16 degrees at 7 am at KCI. That breaks the old record for the day of 18 set in 2007. This is also the coldest low ever for so late in the season. In fact, the temperature has never dipped into the teens on any day later than this.

    • Heat Miser April 7, 2018 at 9:06 am - Reply

      So much for global warming.

  38. Stl78(winon,mn) April 7, 2018 at 8:08 am - Reply

    Interesting blue…up here it’s 13 with snow flurries. 3 to 5 sun but then we should finally warm up

  39. f00dl3 April 7, 2018 at 9:33 am - Reply

    Hey guys, guys… hey guys – don’t worry about snow. 12z GFS has a good 6-8″ snow with KC even seeing 1-3″ April 19th. April is our snowiest month! We have seen 7″ snows in April before.

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