April Arctic Blast Arrives & Signs Of Spring

Good morning bloggers,

I would like to take three minutes of your time to begin this blog. I just made a quick video explaining the cycling pattern and how we had very similar conversations in the previous cycles of this years pattern:

I went back to watch the video from December 28th, and if we would only have used the LRC, then we would never have wasted our time with the models that showed all that snow in our region. But, that is a very difficult thing to do. We are learning.

Speaking of models…..oh no, here we go again.  We have to monitor Sunday closely. The January version of this had no moisture and it was dry, but the April version of this set up has some moisture to work with and Sunday morning could be quite interesting:

2

Very dry air will be in place, so IF we can get into the early morning precipitation bands, then snow and sleet could accumulate.  Let’s see how this sets up on today’s models.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Partly cloudy and dry. The temperatures will be falling to near freezing by evening.
  • Tonight:  There is a 20% chance of a few brief snow showers, or maybe there will be a few snow flurries. No accumulation expected.  The sky will clear out with a record low likely. Low: 14°
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny with increasing afternoon clouds. High: 41°
  • Sunday:  Cloudy with a 60% chance of a mixture of precipitation. There may be some snow/sleet accumulation in a few spots near KC. High:  38°

Our weather team will be out at the Nebraska Furniture Mart on Saturday morning at 11 AM. Come on by and get your name in the drawing. We will be giving away four pairs of Royals tickets, and 2 books of It’s A Sunny Life. Meet our weather team, Sunny The Weather Dog, and see Storm Tracker and our storm chasers.  See you tomorrow. Have a great Friday Night In The Big Town and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go to the Weather2020.com blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Share this post with your friends

81
Leave a Reply

avatar
39 Comment threads
42 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
37 Comment authors
f00dl3Heat MiserStl78(winon,mn)Blue FlashEmaw Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Hey guys, guys… hey guys – don’t worry about snow. 12z GFS has a good 6-8″ snow with KC even seeing 1-3″ April 19th. April is our snowiest month! We have seen 7″ snows in April before.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Interesting blue…up here it’s 13 with snow flurries. 3 to 5 sun but then we should finally warm up

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

16 degrees at 7 am at KCI. That breaks the old record for the day of 18 set in 2007. This is also the coldest low ever for so late in the season. In fact, the temperature has never dipped into the teens on any day later than this.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

So much for global warming.

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Was there an end of March blog with stats? I don’t remember seeing it, I was just wondering how far below average we fell temperature wise.

GolfPro
Guest
GolfPro

SOOOO done with Winter!

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Just drove home in a blinding snow.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

It’s snowing!

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

Very light snow falling. Better than nothing i suppose, old man winter not going down without a fight

choppy
Guest
choppy

Sunday will be a non event as well. Any snow we get is followed by rain and above freezing temps. A slushy mess at best for a small amount of time.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Just now beginning to get snow flurries out this way. Radar shows the bulk of the system is drifting south into central Kansas.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=sln&animate=true

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

I’m guessing the same model as the weather channel their forecast looks very similar.

Kstater
Guest
Kstater

Well the powercast Gary just posted on Facebook and Twitter looks good for Sunday but both the gfs and nam are very underwhelming so not sure what model it pulls from. I’ve decided to just assume it doesn’t snow and if it does I will get pleasently surprised.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Cold windy and dry, sunny and dry, warmer and dry, showers forming to the east but warmer and dry. Just make any forecast and add the word dry and that’s St. Joseph for you lol. We are storm avoidance country up here.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Jack Squat it is then. Sounds good.
Gary is on air. Will see

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

What did he say?

Richard
Guest
Richard

Hes on right now

Richard
Guest
Richard

High confidence of snow and graupel Sunday. I did not catch the time frame.
Looked to come up from the SW ?

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary or anyone
Using newest data on models + LRC whats the chances of accumulating snow Sunday.

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

Between 0 and 100%

jsquibble
Guest
jsquibble

the latest nam shows squat today tomorrow and forever

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Is this disturbance directly related to the Snow MCS we had in early February?
Brett Anthony alluded to that at noon. If so, sorta odd how that system severely over produced while this one is clearly under producing. The same but different I suppose

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

The only caveat here is; 1. Use the LRC and we know probably a dusting to an inch 2. Watch the models go from 8” to a dusting is a sure sign that the LRC should have been used and trusted 3. In a way you have to go with the models because it’s a different season, meaning a twist and the storm performs differently. Conclusion: If the LRC was used and stuck with a dusting to an inch and the storm over performed because of the seasonal difference, twist, then Gary is hammered. Other side, Gary sticks with the… Read more »

Anonymous by choice
Guest
Anonymous by choice

Gary writes in today’s blog, “I went back to watch the video from December 28th, and if we would only have used the LRC, then we would never have wasted our time with the models that showed all that snow in our region. But, that is a very difficult thing to do. We are learning.”

The LRC is touted as the end all, yet it is not used to forecast anything. Interesting dichotomy. Only thing more interesting is Mower Mike creeping on everyone’s Twitter feeds (and probably Facebook posts too).

Mark
Guest
Mark

That’s because you can’t make a detailed forecast from the LRC.

Fredd32
Guest
Fredd32

I’ve been pretty lucky with precip in South East Lee’s Summit. I still had puddles in my backyard yesterday afternoon from rain and snow events. It’s crazy how much of a difference there is in different parts of the metro.

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

And speaking of Sunday, snow lovers I have a theory of my own you might like. It’s called the “ruin another Sunday with crappy weather phenomenon “. Here’s proof.
1. Christmas weekend – snow
2. New Years weekend – pipe freezing cold.
3. Martin Luther King weekend – snow
4. Super Bowl Sunday – snow.
5. Easter Sunday – snow and sleet.
6. This Sunday is the final round of the Masters.
7. Look out Mother’s Day!
Will the last 2 on the list continue the trend?
Chew on that for awhile.

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

I was just thinking the same thing. When we go to church we have quite a stretch of gravel roads. About every time its snowed here we have had to drive in it and get the car and garage muddy. Its happened about 10 times this year it seems.

Adam
Guest
Adam

*Waits for Terry to post link to 12z Canadian for Sunday*

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
Adam
Guest
Adam

Always knew this anonymous account was you Terry!

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Haha save it for Sunday!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

what am I going to do with all the milk and bread I bought? >:(

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

The last few model runs of the GFS still has the same storm systems, but it appears with the frequent fronts it wipes out the good moisture return and the heaviest precip is off to the east. If the 12Z is close to reality, we’re only look at an inch or so of precip for the majority of April, that’s on the dry side, not sure how this is an improvement for our moderate drought condition up here, we are already below 50% normal YTD, hope that when the weather settles we get some meaningful rain.

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

Big storm is coming!!! Storm Terry/Robert Racy 4.0… gonna be a mess!

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Here’s what they’re getting near Omaha right now:
comment image?1523030874279

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

HRRR has looks of a joke of a storm for tonight, it could change but that’s my go to model for now casting. Like if it even flurries it will be over performing y looks to me, NAM does look better but I just don’t buy it. HRRR is by far the most rock solid model we have, only model that accurately portrays the events lately.

Staci
Guest
Staci

Gary,
Based on the LRC, when would you say the last freeze of the season will be? I’m concerned it could be middle/late May.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I told everyone it was going to snow 1-2 inches tonight in KC and I’m sticking to that.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

It *does* have that “it might snow” vibe outside right now.

RickMcKC
Guest
RickMcKC

Wow, that is a pretty convincing video, Gary. Obviously, you are still in the research phase of this LRC project and learning much about how to blend it with what the models indicate. Getting that blend right seems to be the key to improved forecasting. Try not to let the sniping get you down. You really are on to something with this.

With that said … what does the LRC tell you about Sunday’s possibility of snow/rain/etc?

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Ok so now it’s Sunday, come on bloggers hit me with a 6-10″ model fotecast, there’s gotta be 1 out there somewhere!

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Hell yeah….6 to 10😉

kstater
Guest
kstater

Although nothing to get super excited about, Gary is correct, The 12Z nam shows a pretty solid line dropping .5-1.5 inches tonight through most of the area. That would be better than the dusting at best it was showing.

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

That was great !!! Ha ha

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Instead of WEATHER2020 the site should be called HINDSIGHT2020! (lol…just kidding)

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

MikeL………LMAO
good one, but so is life, am I right?

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Sadly, you are right. lol

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Awesome!

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

WOW. WENT FROM 2-6 inches to nothing.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Yeah, I’m done. Not done with the blog. But with Gary wanting to watch models when he, himself says “and if we would only have used the LRC, then we would never have wasted our time with the models that showed all that snow in our region.”

Now watch models again for Sunday ??

Gary, I don’t get it

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Flip Flop. The models are poison eye candy. Can’t keep your eye off them but they’ll suck you in and rut ro, wrong again!

MMike
Guest
MMike

Richard,

OMG……………………times 10

Be careful posting stuff from your twitter account in the future…you goofed up last time and I caught it. You caught it later on as the post you made was no longer available. It’s okay, I know…..I have known all along. Let’s not make a big deal of it.

Have a great rest of the day.

Brian
Guest
Brian

This is an interesting post…

Richard
Guest
Richard

?? Yeah that was a weird one.
Ok, thanks, you have a great rest of your day too MMike 😏 Its almost over and it’s Friday !

I went off the rails here earlier. Sorry Gary

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

because what else are you going to watch…lol

Richard
Guest
Richard

not watching snow thats for sure lol

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary
Hate to say it, but, yesterday on here I mentioned that MT was saying Sunday looked more stout, and accumulations could happen.
I discounted it and called him a bozo because you had not even talked about it yet because you were so focussed on todays event.
And NOW you want to watch models again after what just happened with todays “storm” ?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Well, in all fairness… MT is a bozo lol. I love him as a TV personality but he is often wrong as a met, and his references of flame throwers as a description of Pacific/SW flow annoy me. Sunday could be a decent little storm, nothing to get carried away about. Little rain/snow mix, wont hut anybody and most will welcome some wet stuff. 1/2″ for the lucky spots and prolly more like 1/4″ for most places

Kathy
Guest
Kathy

Hume….I totally agree. I also like him but the whole “Pacific flamethrower” thing annoys me. Now the other male met over there is really interesting and I enjoy his weather analyses and blogs.

Jim
Guest
Jim

Gary

Do you coordinate with your weather team? They have a video up right now saying a dusting to an inch in some parts. Are you saying they are wrong?

Thanks

NoSnowflake
Guest
NoSnowflake

Gary –

Are you going to do a post-mortem; a review/grading of your winter forecast?

Are you going to issue a spring forecast to target specific May/June dates for severe weather in the KC region?