POOF: Are We Really Surprised?

/POOF: Are We Really Surprised?

POOF: Are We Really Surprised?

Good morning bloggers,

At least it will be a great day today with temperatures warming into the 60s, and even near 70 degrees in spots.  And, no, there is no in between! POOF: Are you really surprised? I am not.  I have been a bit concerned, but this doesn’t mean it isn’t shocking.  Here we are a day before the potential storm and it is gone. I mean, there is not one model left that has much potential. We still have to monitor it closely but, look.

2

I have wondered about these suspect waves the entire time. On the latest model runs, every model by the way, the waves have very little strength to them at all. And, this will mean very little chance of snowfall accumulations.

8

I showed this graphic last night, and now I have updated it as you can see here. There is now a 40% chance of not even a dusting, and just flurries.  There is still a 60% chance of a dusting, and I lowered the probabilities of every other scenario.

3

The map above shows the GFS snowfall forecast, and it is similar to the other models. POOF!

I am so sorry bloggers. This is good news to many. Have a great day. Maybe it will trend in another direction.  Go to Weather2020.com, click on the blog there, and join in the conversation. I am sure it will be interesting, but this is tough on us weather enthusiasts.  Hey, it’s spring, and todays weather looks great!

Gary

2018-04-06T11:25:55+00:00April 5th, 2018|General|104 Comments

104 Comments

  1. Elaine Watson April 5, 2018 at 5:44 am - Reply

    Not really surprised but still disappointing. I get sucked in every time. You would think I would learn. The LRC has been consistent but I kept hoping for a stronger wave, a twist. Maybe next winter………..

  2. Anonymous April 5, 2018 at 6:11 am - Reply

    Sweet

  3. Fred April 5, 2018 at 6:12 am - Reply

    Some us will be surprised and sad and angry.

    Some of us won’t…because we knew this would happen. How many times this winter have we seen this game play out?

    It wasn’t going to change. It’s the pattern and people can wish-cast all they want, but it still doesn’t change the pattern.

    I’m ready for spring. Winter can be finished.

  4. LYITC41 April 5, 2018 at 6:17 am - Reply

    KMBZ radio was still saying 1-3″ @ 0530, don’t know what they were looking at-sorry for the ones who needed this.

  5. Bsmike April 5, 2018 at 6:17 am - Reply

    Go back and read what I said yesterday!!!

    I AINT BUYING IT !!!!!!

    Smh lmao

    • waldo weather April 5, 2018 at 6:58 am - Reply

      As I said yesterday also, the letdown will come today. Bummer, but for everyone here, we knew this would happen, just always nice to hold out the hope.

  6. DaveC April 5, 2018 at 6:27 am - Reply

    lol..< 6 hours and we poof the forecast..

  7. Tdogg April 5, 2018 at 6:33 am - Reply

    I still believe! Big snow Friday

  8. MikeL April 5, 2018 at 6:39 am - Reply

    It seems to me the GFS became more erratic and less reliable after it was last upgraded. Gary or anyone have any insight about that?

  9. Brian April 5, 2018 at 6:40 am - Reply

    But…but…but….what about all the model runs from yesterday? The models, the models, the models.

  10. Three7s April 5, 2018 at 6:47 am - Reply

    Called it.

    • Rod April 5, 2018 at 11:51 am - Reply

      I wouldn’t count out snow completely yet especially for Central Missouri & the Ozarks, still could pick up an 1”. Also at least there’s one county in Missouri near Perryville is SE MO that’s under a winter storm watch, lol. Sunday’s snow is still in play, so if Friday is a miss then boom look at this for Sunday:

      http://www.grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif

  11. REAL HUMEDUDE April 5, 2018 at 6:53 am - Reply

    I was thinking the spring season had thrown us a twist, I could buy the spring season producing more functional storms. On bright side, this is good news for people with outside activities for the weekend. I will be able to work my cows and put up more fence as long as this stays minimal. I’m still seeing the Sunday system looks good, St. Joe needs good production out of that one and it seems to be targeting them (maybe lol )

  12. f00dl3 April 5, 2018 at 6:58 am - Reply

    I knew so ething was off when the high res NAM showed us getting 5″ from 1 friggin hour of light to at most moderate snowfall yesterday.

  13. Lary Gezak April 5, 2018 at 7:19 am - Reply

    None of us should be surprised at this point

  14. Heat Miser April 5, 2018 at 7:32 am - Reply

    lol…so we all just wasted our time looking at these models for the past several days. Great!

    • Richard April 5, 2018 at 8:36 am - Reply

      Yep. Even you Heat

      • Heat Miser April 5, 2018 at 9:58 am - Reply

        Yeah, that’s why I said “we”. That’s it, no more paying attention to models more than 24-36 hours out where snow is involved. Big fat huge waste of time. LoL…good grief.

  15. f00dl3 April 5, 2018 at 7:36 am - Reply

    LRC! LRC! LRC! LRC! LRC!

    Seriously – it’s the same but the same – unless it’s Spring then we get a ton of rain when in winter we don’t get jack squat. Just enough to throw off those who all but fully buy into it being the same.

  16. Patti April 5, 2018 at 7:44 am - Reply

    I, for one, will be thrilled with a POOF. I am so beyond ready for sunshine and warmth and leaves on the trees, etc, etc, etc.

    • Snow Miser April 5, 2018 at 7:49 am - Reply

      Yeah, me too, kinda sorta. It would be fun in a way getting a freak big snowstorm in April, but when you get down to it, I’m more than ready for spring. So I have mixed feelings about this.

  17. Michael Casteel April 5, 2018 at 7:55 am - Reply

    Poof, the Magic Snowstorm, who never gives us snow! And dumps all the snow-oh-oh on the NorthEast! Weatherman Gary Lezak tries to calm the Bloggers, and give them hope on Next years LRC! LOL I was trying to follow the Peter, Paul, and Mary song! Have a great day Bloggers.
    Michael

  18. Tim April 5, 2018 at 8:00 am - Reply

    You know.. I wouldn’t count it out yet. At the end of the day what Mother Nature does– is what Mother Nature does. The models have no influence over that. If you cant predict a snowstorm when the models show snow– then how can one accurately say there will not be a snowstorm or “poof” when they show nothing or little– We’ve been fooled by that once already this year.

    • Three7s April 5, 2018 at 8:26 am - Reply

      The reason this Poof makes so much sense is because this is exactly what has happened time and time again during this LRC. I’m really not sure how people aren’t catching on to something so obvious. The LRC pattern is the same thing over and over again. Why would we expect a snowstorm in April when we can barely get an inch out of this pattern? This thing had Poof written all over it from the start, especially with how many storms have been suppressed to the south by dry, cold air this year.

      Put a fork in her, she’s done.

  19. Mike Holm April 5, 2018 at 8:03 am - Reply

    Just heard you on a 810, you know since you predicted a dusting we’re going to get hammered now. Was that reverse psychology?

    • Gary April 5, 2018 at 8:04 am - Reply

      I wish!

  20. Richard April 5, 2018 at 8:32 am - Reply

    Adam you were right on !

    terry where are you now. I like your enthusiasm, but not your put-downs.

    Everyone got modelitis. Again.
    But the LRC has told us all winter long what would happen. Models be damned !

    • Terry April 5, 2018 at 8:53 am - Reply

      Lol maybe and maybe

      • Terry April 5, 2018 at 8:54 am - Reply

        Not

    • Heat Miser April 5, 2018 at 9:56 am - Reply

      That’s my only complaint about him, not his predictions, his attitude

  21. Spaceotter April 5, 2018 at 8:32 am - Reply

    Whew, helping someone move Friday and or Saturday morning. Did not want snow.

  22. Richard April 5, 2018 at 8:35 am - Reply

    Gary
    Will this system produce a big snow on the east coast again ?

    And what about Sunday. You have not mentioned it with all the focus being on this poof storm

  23. Terry April 5, 2018 at 8:51 am - Reply

    Everyone we still have today on the models to see how they trend . From the Gfs 00z fo the Gfs 06z it change that fast. So like gary said let’s see how the models trend today and even tomorrow morning few and like gary said yesterday in blog and again this morning. Everyone remember how it was on the Christmas eve forecast went to yes and No and yes some snow. Now on to tomorrow wave Maybe it will trend in Another direction today in the blog. I dont give up to easy yes I might be wrong and i might be right . I’m sure some of you will comment on this and stay terry you to give up. But I’m not okay!

    • Richard April 5, 2018 at 11:28 am - Reply

      Terry
      Enjoy today. Get outside. Get some rays.
      Its beautiful out. Birds are singing.
      Because the snow might not be coming, but the cold is.

  24. Richard April 5, 2018 at 8:52 am - Reply

    KCMO at 8 a.m. on their twitter

    “City crews will enjoy the spring weather today by preparing roadways for the winter weather expected tomorrow! Crews are applying brine (saltwater) to main roadways today and vehicles are mounted and ready for whatever tomorrow brings.”

    Somebody tell them it went poof !

    • Jason April 5, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

      If they don’t treat, and we actually get a little weather, everyone will be mad at them. No win situation. They have to treat just in case

  25. Mr. Pete April 5, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

    NWS still has 1-2 inches in their forecast for tomorrow night.

  26. Steve April 5, 2018 at 9:36 am - Reply

    Damn, I don’t care snow, rain just need the moisture. Something!!! Getting a bad feeling about summer rain’s!!

  27. Nate April 5, 2018 at 9:51 am - Reply

    It’s April 5th, why on earth would anyone be concerning themselves with snow? This is T-Storm season…the season for real men, not childish kids wanting a snow day

    • Rod April 5, 2018 at 7:40 pm - Reply

      Some of us work & accumulate comp time like myself that can only be used when the state issues the hazardous travel policy. Unfortunately this winter there hasn’t been a single day that this has been issued in central MO for the Troop F area therefore I haven’t gotten even one paid snow day off. I was really hoping for snow on a weekday so I can stay home & enjoy it with my kids. With winter being my favorite season this has been very frustrating & disappointing so as a grown adult & 0% childish I’m still wishing for a snow day. If your calling people who want a snow day a childish kid your talking about others on the blog who want snow as bad or more than I do. Just sayin!! ❄️❄️❄️❄️

  28. Snow Miser April 5, 2018 at 9:59 am - Reply

    New NAM really has things going poof.

    • Tim April 5, 2018 at 10:04 am - Reply

      LOL– aint the the truth. Anybody know when the first runs that had data samplings of the storm environment? I thought maybe the 00z may have included this?

  29. Adam April 5, 2018 at 10:13 am - Reply

    Looks like I wasn’t just being negative, eh?? All you had to do was just looks at the pattern. Look at the type or wave, and understand that circumstance has not and would not produce this winter.

    Heat doesn’t like my attitude?? Wanna know what I don’t like? Someone telling me I’m negative when I’m just being realistic. People on here only like it if you’re hyping. That’s so dumb.

    I am in no way surprised about the end result, because I saw this coming from a mile away. I will credit Gary for never fully buying in. Ever since he completely misplayed a storm a few months back with his “A winter storm watch will likely be issued” comment 72 hours out, he’s never wavered from the results of this pattern.

    Not sure why the rest of us didn’t follow suit. Hopes and dreams I guess.

    • Tdogg April 5, 2018 at 10:41 am - Reply

      Heat is a grown man who acts like an entitled brat. Guess what?-he’s singe too! Who the f@ck would put up with his snarkiness?

      • Heat Miser April 5, 2018 at 11:07 am - Reply

        Shhh troll….your sole point of existence is to troll a weather blog…lol, you are in no position to call others brats. Go back to your hole and I’ll go back to not reading your comments.

    • Heat Miser April 5, 2018 at 11:05 am - Reply

      You need to work on your presentation dude.

    • MMike April 5, 2018 at 11:20 am - Reply

      Adam,

      First off, nice call. It’s April after all and it was a pretty easy call. Getting one snow in April is hard, let alone two.

      With that being said, the same call from you and many others this past winter weren’t always right so that is why you still hold out/discuss until the event actually passes.

      The fun part of the blog is to look at those forecasts from the models and track it, otherwise, what else would we do on here. The reason you track it all the way until the end is because things do change. Did any forecast call for 6-7 inches of snow in MO last week?? They called for snow, they didn’t call for that much. You have often mentioned that a storm coming in from the NW can’t produce more then a dusting to 2 inches…well, Easter proved that wrong.

      The same called for no white X-mas, the same called for no snow on SB Sunday, the same called just last week that “noway it snows in April, No way it gets that cold in April, “the models are pure fantasy, it’s not going to snow in April” ETC. Many of you said winter was over in late Feb. We have had nothing but winter weather since.. the same called for drought the last 5 years…didn’t happen. The proof is all right there in the blog.

      My point, it’s not always the same result as you guys suggest. There always can be a change at the last minute. Case and point was the SB Sunday storm, every model pulled the snow from the forecast and every weather guy/gal did too…there was 1-3 inches of snow around town. I think tomorrow’s event is very similar to SB Sunday…coming out of the NW…surprised everyone that one Sunday. Who’s to say that can’t happen again..there are many other examples too.

      I know everyone says things can’t change, well, they have in some areas. California…nothing all fall through most of winter..got blasted in this last month. Most of MO was in a D1 to D2 drought late fall through Jan…that was wiped out. eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, up through the Tennessee Valley…all in drought headlines to start the year…wiped out of recent. So, yes, things seem to be the same here in KC, but, maybe we just had some bad luck, bad timing, too much dry air. etc. We had a very active winter, my company had 11 snow/ice events we worked..I’ll take this winter every year. We just never landed in a good spot for the bigger stuff.

      • Roger April 5, 2018 at 12:43 pm - Reply

        California is in their wet season. No surprise to me. Southern California still averaging 4-8+ inch deficits with Northern California ranging from 12-16+ inch deficits since October 1st.

    • JoeK April 5, 2018 at 8:11 pm - Reply

      Adam

      If this thing does go poof completely, I will be wrong on my forecast of someone in the viewing area getting a good amount of moisture. For an explanation why I felt that way, this system fits the LRC like a glove and was a good indicator of what would likely happen, getting missed. My erroneous prediction is not a reflection of the LRC, rather my novice skills. I felt that this system would be more functional in this cycle due to dynamic changes ( spring, gulf moisture, changes in jet stream) in the atmosphere. In a nutshell, I felt we had a strong possibility of a “twist” in the pattern/cycle. I feel it important to analyze and explain when I am wrong so I can apply what I have learned going forward. Moreover, it is also important to explain my forecast factors so that those few folks that may be on the fence about the LRC, understand that my bold predictions are not always a direct reflection of the LRC as my knowledge is still in its infancy.

  30. Joe April 5, 2018 at 10:32 am - Reply

    LOL!!!! Modelitis…when will people learn?? On a positive note, I bet all the hype/wishcasting drove web traffic drove web traffic for this site through the roof.

    • JoeK April 5, 2018 at 8:18 pm - Reply

      Joe,

      Web traffic on this site is unimportant. If you haven’t noticed, there are no sponsors paying for advertisements. Not sure why web traffic is mentioned. On another note, yes, folks get caught up in the models, they are supposed to be reliable, but have proven a little moody over the past few years 😀 This is a weather blog, a place to come have fun and discuss all aspects of the weather.

  31. Brian April 5, 2018 at 10:55 am - Reply

    But the models said it was going to happen, you guys! The models said it was going to happen!

    I mean, all those links were posted yesterday. I mean, if a link is posted, doesn’t that mean it’s true?

    I have never known the models to be wrong 48, 72, 96 hours or 10 days out…well not this year, at least. They have always been right, except when they aren’t.

    Let’s go Spring!

  32. LYITC41 April 5, 2018 at 10:56 am - Reply

    I rest my case (regarding the models). Now that I’ve said that I have ensured a 12″ blizzard tomorrow night…lol

    • MMike April 5, 2018 at 11:39 am - Reply

      Lyitc41,

      So, the models are wrong, huh? LOL

      The trend right now is for little snowfall, so, if that happens tomorrow, the models actually will be right in making the change. Wouldn’t a model be wrong if it predicts 10 inches of snow and sticks to it, then tomorrow passes and very little to no snow occurred. I thing that’s when the model data would be labeled wrong. Do you not agree with that?? The data has actually made the right change, so, they will be right if little to no snow falls tomorrow.

      SB Sunday, the data pulled the snow out of the forecast and then the snow occurred. That was wrong.

      Listen, I agree, the data from yesterday, the day before and day before that for Friday was wrong, but, it has made the right correction so it will be right for tomorrow. (that’s if it snows very little)

      I mentioned this yesterday, the data from 2 weeks ago showed very cold conditions for late March and the first 10 days of April. It modeled very cold air masses… It also showed multiple chances for wintry weather in KS and MO. You can’t deny that the outlook for the period was dead on. Now, individual storms and timing, strength, and amounts will never be precise..NEVER! That’s why you have to track them all the way until the end. From two weeks ago(proof in the blog) the GFS modeled a storm in the Plains on April 6th and 7th, there will be a storm tomorrow, although what appears now to be a very weak one.

      The data, if used properly, can be very helpful for the 0-5 range, 5-10 day range, and 10-15 day range. Use it for trends and pattern changes, not precise amounts and days that storms will hit.

      Have a great rest of the day…I’m going golfing. Not passing up this afternoon, haven’t had many of them. Hopefully many more are on the way.

  33. Roger April 5, 2018 at 11:06 am - Reply

    Ahhhh….Something you CAN count on in this LRC.
    http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?KS

    • Richard April 5, 2018 at 11:20 am - Reply

      Holy KaJOEly !
      Drought ramping up ! Not good

  34. NoSnowflake April 5, 2018 at 11:07 am - Reply

    To be fair, as recently as yesterday afternoon even this station was going 3-6″ for the southern half of the metro.

    https://twitter.com/GerardJebaily/status/981621898198085632

  35. LYITC41 April 5, 2018 at 11:12 am - Reply

    Folks at Colorado State U. are predicting a slightly above avg. hurricane season-14 named storms of which 7 will become hurricanes. 3 of the seven will become major they say.

  36. Richard April 5, 2018 at 11:36 am - Reply

    LOL !
    Accuweather still calling for 2-4 for Olathe ! Don’t they use models ?? Did they look at them this morning ?

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/olathe-ks/66061/daily-weather-forecast/328849?day=2

    • Heat Miser April 5, 2018 at 11:39 am - Reply

      They were calling for 3-6 just last night.

  37. Heat Miser April 5, 2018 at 11:38 am - Reply

    LoL…Joe Bastardi talking about the flip flopping models today too.

    • Richard April 5, 2018 at 11:45 am - Reply

      Bastardi (what a name to live with). Isn’t he on a pay site ?

  38. Rod April 5, 2018 at 11:59 am - Reply

    Sunday snow is still there and has not vanished yet models showing a couple inches with that, so snow lovers hang on.

    • Joe April 5, 2018 at 12:06 pm - Reply

      In the models we trust….LOL

    • Richard April 5, 2018 at 12:06 pm - Reply

      Not buying it at all !
      Gary has not even talked about it.
      Models showed snow for Friday last night !

      Give it up with the model watching for snow ! Enough

    • choppy April 5, 2018 at 1:11 pm - Reply

      Nobody is talking about snow Sunday.

  39. Kathy April 5, 2018 at 12:21 pm - Reply

    Guess I’m the only one on here who didn’t want snow, especially in April. Are we going to get any moisture at all from this Friday event or is that gone as well?

  40. Rod April 5, 2018 at 1:41 pm - Reply

    If the 18z GFS run this evening shows no snow then the chances of accumulating snow go way down per one of my storm chaser friends. This is probably why the National Weather Service in St. Louis removed their snowfall map but have not made any other snow updates do they are probably waiting to see what the evening runs show. You hate to make a quick decision and go from 2 to 4 inches to no snow and then have to bump it up again. I’m not completely sold I’m going to wait and see what the evening & late night data shows before the towel gets thrown in.

  41. Eric April 5, 2018 at 1:46 pm - Reply

    The LRC strikes again! I sure wanted that 5” NAM run to verify! However, as we all should start to see is the LRC is pretty accurate. I’m just a novice but its no coincidence that almost every snow chance dwindled down to almost nothing as the days got closer. Couple days of excitement just for a let down when the day arrived. Its the cycle this year. I wanted to believe we would get a good snow tomorrow but after seeing how this winter went I just had a feeling the LRC was going to be right again. Pretty amazing if you think about it!

  42. heavysnow April 5, 2018 at 2:07 pm - Reply

    NWS St Louis showing widespread 2-3″ of snow with 3-4″ in several spots.

  43. KS Jones April 5, 2018 at 2:08 pm - Reply

    I don’t know which computer model the NWS uses to make their predictions, but I would guess it’s the GFS, because the map that Gary posted coincides with the NWS’s snow accumulation maps. The NWS map for Hastings shows the heaviest snowfall will be north of the Platte River, and the GFS map also coincides with Topeka’s NWS predictions for this area between Marysville & Manhattan:
    Friday: Snow likely, mainly after 3pm. .. . Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
    Friday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 7pm. . . Chance of precipitation is 60%. . .
    Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow after 1am.
    Sunday: A chance of snow and freezing rain before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow between 10am and 11am, then a chance of rain after 11am. . . Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    • KS Jones April 6, 2018 at 12:00 am - Reply

      Topeka’s NWS revised their forecast later this afternoon. The chance for snow on Friday is still 70%, but they changed the accumulated snow from 1 to 2″ to less than 1″.
      The low temperatures are predicted to be below freezing until Tuesday night. Friday night will be the coldest at 13°.

  44. Katharidinaus April 5, 2018 at 2:23 pm - Reply

    I don’t know why everyone is up in arms about the model vacillation. This model season is the worst I’ve ever seen in my 14 years of model watching. You should have known this storm would disappear. Flurries Friday, a few flurries and then rain Sunday, and that’s it. Winter is done after this, and while it should get chilly again sometime in early May, I doubt we get any winter weather out of it.

    Having said that, this is April. We have a strong sun and the potential for good dynamics to coalesce at the drop of a hat. I’ve seen it happen before – Nashville had snow on April 13, 2004 – had a wet coating that wasn’t forecast at all (except by me, but that’s a different story).

    Now, next winter will be a blockbuster. Why? Because I’m moving to Seattle this fall, and whenever I move, both the city I move to and the city I move from get pounded in whatever year it happens.

  45. Kurt April 5, 2018 at 4:02 pm - Reply

    18Z nam looks more organized for one band of snow Friday night into early Saturday morning, about 1-2 hours of snow and then a very heavy band for 3 to 4 hours Sunday morning for about 4 inches down the Missouri river between St. Joseph into the counties east-south east of Buchanan but north of most of Kansas City.

    Interesting that the model produces zero snow over the Winter Storm Watch areas of southern Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee. Not sure if this is to be relied on , but as Terry said don’t count this out yet.

  46. Heat Miser April 5, 2018 at 4:36 pm - Reply

    I guess we just cant forecast this even a day out. Wait and see what happens I guess.

  47. Kurt April 5, 2018 at 4:45 pm - Reply

    This seems very familiar to the Christmas Eve event and the snow just after that. It was forecast days in advance as a potential for something big, then dialed back until the day of the event. Will be fun to watch, just hope for some QPF out of these 2 systems over the weekend. If it’s going to cold, give us some snow to insulate some of the poor things trying to grow until we get a pro-longed warm up…

  48. Richard April 5, 2018 at 6:25 pm - Reply

    Ok. Bozo MT says “Friday is looking weaker and weaker every time new data comes in.”
    (No kidding !?) Gary knew that VERY EARLY this morning.
    Then he says “Sunday is looking more stout, accumulations likely Sunday morning.”

    In Gary we trust ! In the LRC we trust !
    And Gary even showed 75 and 71 for Wed / Thurs ! Come on Spring !

    • ClassyCat April 5, 2018 at 6:58 pm - Reply

      Bozo MT. Lol

  49. heat miser April 5, 2018 at 6:31 pm - Reply

    heat miser winter is over let us enjoy spring go back in your hole and come out next november no snow for you heat ha ha ha ha ha

  50. f00dl3 April 5, 2018 at 6:47 pm - Reply

    Could it be when the Royals won the world series in 2015 that we had a influx of air traffic from the south creating an low level jet from the south which robs us of snow in the winter but creates heavier rains in summer?

  51. Mr. Pete April 5, 2018 at 7:57 pm - Reply

    I actually think it’s gonna snow 1-2 inches tomorrow night in KC. I may be the only one that thinks that.

  52. Tdogg April 5, 2018 at 8:16 pm - Reply

    I am thinking we get 6-12” of snow…I have enough food in my house to feed then entire country of Ethiopia.

  53. WeathermanKumke April 5, 2018 at 8:28 pm - Reply

    The Weatherman KISS of Death strikes again!

  54. Fred Nolan April 5, 2018 at 9:27 pm - Reply

    Whats the weather looking like for a trip to St Louis tomorrow night and returning Sunday evening?

  55. Phillip April 5, 2018 at 9:52 pm - Reply

    Kumke weren’t you saying this was going to be a big one?…

    • WeathermanKumke April 5, 2018 at 10:22 pm - Reply

      Yes. The good ole Weatherman Kiss of death. If I go all in on a storm, it means it’s not gonna happen. You all should know this by now. Unless it’s me yelling 6-10 widespread, we aren’t getting crap from it.

      Besides, It’s April and I like to poke fun at everyone. Neville at another station doesn’t like that fun tho. I kept comparing him to the man that gravity forgot and kept asking him to do a Red arrow on air. He wasn’t too pleased.

      I am gonna give credit where credit is due to the other Gary who put down .1 of an inch of snow yesterday as his forecast even with the models screaming 4-8 inches across the metro.

      Thankfully after this weekend, Winter will finally be… DELETED and the warm months of the solace of summer will be upon the people in the City of Kansas. It will be quite Delightfullll yesssss

  56. Emaw April 5, 2018 at 10:24 pm - Reply

    Ladies and gentlemen I’d like to introduce you to one of my old friends Jack, JACK SQUAT!

    • WeathermanKumke April 5, 2018 at 10:33 pm - Reply

      Ahhhh yesssssss. Brother Emaw. I’d knew you come.

  57. Rockdoc April 5, 2018 at 10:36 pm - Reply

    Winter to Summer? Late next week temperatures will tease. As I mentioned, I’ll be sending desert temps your way in KC. In the meantime, I’ll be in dry 90+ degree weather next week in Palm Springs which is at least 10+ degrees warmer than normal for this location at this time of year. It usually doesn’t get this hot for consecutive days until May-June.

  58. Phillip April 6, 2018 at 12:04 am - Reply

    And just like that the models are showing 2-4” again

    • WeathermanKumke April 6, 2018 at 12:24 am - Reply

      Yeah. Not one model is showing that.

      Hrrr .1
      NAM 3K 0
      NAM .2
      GFS .1
      RAP 0
      SREF 0% of an inch
      Canadian .2
      Euro .4

    • Mr. Pete April 6, 2018 at 12:27 am - Reply

      But if the models all went poof today can’t they just as easily reinstate the snow as well?

      • WeathermanKumke April 6, 2018 at 2:05 am - Reply

        No. You’d sometimes see that in cases of potential severe weather because of different variables that are related to a setup. For an example, a model might pick up on more clouds the day before which would limit daytime heating and instability in some areas. This cloud cover might or might not form which is why the SPC can swing hard sometimes from a marginal or no risk to an enhanced risk.

        Snowfall’s variables are much different. Dry Air in the layers of the atmosphere kills snow. It causes it to shrivel up and die (much like Low Dewpoints can often limit severe weather).

        Are we going to eventually see some snowflakes tomorrow, probably but it’s not like Thundersnow is going to appear out of thin air. We aren’t going to get those 2-3 inch/hr rates.

        I’m sure Lezak could definitely go into greater detail but right now it’s like 2am and my brain shuts off around 2:30

  59. Phillip April 6, 2018 at 2:23 am - Reply

    Hey I didn’t say where the models were showing that 😂

  60. Rodney Sherman April 6, 2018 at 5:17 am - Reply

    I believe it may not snow at all. Does not hurt my feelings.

  61. Lary Gezak April 6, 2018 at 6:32 am - Reply

    JL from Fox says we need to watch the end of next week for something more “potent” severe weather wise… FINALLY!

    • WeathermanKumke April 6, 2018 at 7:23 am - Reply

      Yes. The LRC has the 13-14th of April as the first big severe weather day.

      • LYITC41 April 6, 2018 at 7:41 am - Reply

        Hopefully that goes poof as well.

  62. REAL HUMEDUDE April 6, 2018 at 7:49 am - Reply

    If HRRR is right, KC metro gets Absolutly zero precip out of this “event”
    Muchado

  63. Mr. Pete April 6, 2018 at 8:06 am - Reply

    Really need a down arrow

    • Gopher April 6, 2018 at 8:18 am - Reply

      Really need to stop complaining about something so insignificant. Hold your space bar down to get to bottom of page quickly.

  64. MikeL April 6, 2018 at 8:30 am - Reply

    Looks like today’s blog entry has gone POOF as well…

    • jsquibble April 6, 2018 at 9:05 am - Reply

      maybe he’s waiting on the NEW DATA to come in before he makes a blog

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