POOF: Are We Really Surprised?

Good morning bloggers,

At least it will be a great day today with temperatures warming into the 60s, and even near 70 degrees in spots.  And, no, there is no in between! POOF: Are you really surprised? I am not.  I have been a bit concerned, but this doesn’t mean it isn’t shocking.  Here we are a day before the potential storm and it is gone. I mean, there is not one model left that has much potential. We still have to monitor it closely but, look.

2

I have wondered about these suspect waves the entire time. On the latest model runs, every model by the way, the waves have very little strength to them at all. And, this will mean very little chance of snowfall accumulations.

8

I showed this graphic last night, and now I have updated it as you can see here. There is now a 40% chance of not even a dusting, and just flurries.  There is still a 60% chance of a dusting, and I lowered the probabilities of every other scenario.

3

The map above shows the GFS snowfall forecast, and it is similar to the other models. POOF!

I am so sorry bloggers. This is good news to many. Have a great day. Maybe it will trend in another direction.  Go to Weather2020.com, click on the blog there, and join in the conversation. I am sure it will be interesting, but this is tough on us weather enthusiasts.  Hey, it’s spring, and todays weather looks great!

Gary

Share this post with your friends

104
Leave a Reply

avatar
64 Comment threads
40 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
49 Comment authors
jsquibbleMikeLGopherMr. PeteREAL HUMEDUDE Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Looks like today’s blog entry has gone POOF as well…

jsquibble
Guest
jsquibble

maybe he’s waiting on the NEW DATA to come in before he makes a blog

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Really need a down arrow

Gopher
Guest
Gopher

Really need to stop complaining about something so insignificant. Hold your space bar down to get to bottom of page quickly.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

If HRRR is right, KC metro gets Absolutly zero precip out of this “event”
Muchado

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

JL from Fox says we need to watch the end of next week for something more “potent” severe weather wise… FINALLY!

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Yes. The LRC has the 13-14th of April as the first big severe weather day.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Hopefully that goes poof as well.

Rodney Sherman
Guest
Rodney Sherman

I believe it may not snow at all. Does not hurt my feelings.

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Hey I didn’t say where the models were showing that 😂

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

And just like that the models are showing 2-4” again

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Yeah. Not one model is showing that.

Hrrr .1
NAM 3K 0
NAM .2
GFS .1
RAP 0
SREF 0% of an inch
Canadian .2
Euro .4

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

But if the models all went poof today can’t they just as easily reinstate the snow as well?

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

No. You’d sometimes see that in cases of potential severe weather because of different variables that are related to a setup. For an example, a model might pick up on more clouds the day before which would limit daytime heating and instability in some areas. This cloud cover might or might not form which is why the SPC can swing hard sometimes from a marginal or no risk to an enhanced risk. Snowfall’s variables are much different. Dry Air in the layers of the atmosphere kills snow. It causes it to shrivel up and die (much like Low Dewpoints can… Read more »

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Winter to Summer? Late next week temperatures will tease. As I mentioned, I’ll be sending desert temps your way in KC. In the meantime, I’ll be in dry 90+ degree weather next week in Palm Springs which is at least 10+ degrees warmer than normal for this location at this time of year. It usually doesn’t get this hot for consecutive days until May-June.

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Ladies and gentlemen I’d like to introduce you to one of my old friends Jack, JACK SQUAT!

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Ahhhh yesssssss. Brother Emaw. I’d knew you come.

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Kumke weren’t you saying this was going to be a big one?…

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Yes. The good ole Weatherman Kiss of death. If I go all in on a storm, it means it’s not gonna happen. You all should know this by now. Unless it’s me yelling 6-10 widespread, we aren’t getting crap from it. Besides, It’s April and I like to poke fun at everyone. Neville at another station doesn’t like that fun tho. I kept comparing him to the man that gravity forgot and kept asking him to do a Red arrow on air. He wasn’t too pleased. I am gonna give credit where credit is due to the other Gary who… Read more »

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

Whats the weather looking like for a trip to St Louis tomorrow night and returning Sunday evening?

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

The Weatherman KISS of Death strikes again!

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

I am thinking we get 6-12” of snow…I have enough food in my house to feed then entire country of Ethiopia.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I actually think it’s gonna snow 1-2 inches tomorrow night in KC. I may be the only one that thinks that.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Could it be when the Royals won the world series in 2015 that we had a influx of air traffic from the south creating an low level jet from the south which robs us of snow in the winter but creates heavier rains in summer?

heat miser
Guest
heat miser

heat miser winter is over let us enjoy spring go back in your hole and come out next november no snow for you heat ha ha ha ha ha

Richard
Guest
Richard

Ok. Bozo MT says “Friday is looking weaker and weaker every time new data comes in.”
(No kidding !?) Gary knew that VERY EARLY this morning.
Then he says “Sunday is looking more stout, accumulations likely Sunday morning.”

In Gary we trust ! In the LRC we trust !
And Gary even showed 75 and 71 for Wed / Thurs ! Come on Spring !

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Bozo MT. Lol

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

This seems very familiar to the Christmas Eve event and the snow just after that. It was forecast days in advance as a potential for something big, then dialed back until the day of the event. Will be fun to watch, just hope for some QPF out of these 2 systems over the weekend. If it’s going to cold, give us some snow to insulate some of the poor things trying to grow until we get a pro-longed warm up…

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I guess we just cant forecast this even a day out. Wait and see what happens I guess.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

18Z nam looks more organized for one band of snow Friday night into early Saturday morning, about 1-2 hours of snow and then a very heavy band for 3 to 4 hours Sunday morning for about 4 inches down the Missouri river between St. Joseph into the counties east-south east of Buchanan but north of most of Kansas City.

Interesting that the model produces zero snow over the Winter Storm Watch areas of southern Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee. Not sure if this is to be relied on , but as Terry said don’t count this out yet.

Katharidinaus
Guest
Katharidinaus

I don’t know why everyone is up in arms about the model vacillation. This model season is the worst I’ve ever seen in my 14 years of model watching. You should have known this storm would disappear. Flurries Friday, a few flurries and then rain Sunday, and that’s it. Winter is done after this, and while it should get chilly again sometime in early May, I doubt we get any winter weather out of it. Having said that, this is April. We have a strong sun and the potential for good dynamics to coalesce at the drop of a hat.… Read more »

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

I don’t know which computer model the NWS uses to make their predictions, but I would guess it’s the GFS, because the map that Gary posted coincides with the NWS’s snow accumulation maps. The NWS map for Hastings shows the heaviest snowfall will be north of the Platte River, and the GFS map also coincides with Topeka’s NWS predictions for this area between Marysville & Manhattan: Friday: Snow likely, mainly after 3pm. .. . Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Friday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 7pm. . . Chance of precipitation… Read more »

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Topeka’s NWS revised their forecast later this afternoon. The chance for snow on Friday is still 70%, but they changed the accumulated snow from 1 to 2″ to less than 1″.
The low temperatures are predicted to be below freezing until Tuesday night. Friday night will be the coldest at 13°.

heavysnow
Guest
heavysnow

NWS St Louis showing widespread 2-3″ of snow with 3-4″ in several spots.

Eric
Guest
Eric

The LRC strikes again! I sure wanted that 5” NAM run to verify! However, as we all should start to see is the LRC is pretty accurate. I’m just a novice but its no coincidence that almost every snow chance dwindled down to almost nothing as the days got closer. Couple days of excitement just for a let down when the day arrived. Its the cycle this year. I wanted to believe we would get a good snow tomorrow but after seeing how this winter went I just had a feeling the LRC was going to be right again. Pretty… Read more »

Rod
Guest
Rod

If the 18z GFS run this evening shows no snow then the chances of accumulating snow go way down per one of my storm chaser friends. This is probably why the National Weather Service in St. Louis removed their snowfall map but have not made any other snow updates do they are probably waiting to see what the evening runs show. You hate to make a quick decision and go from 2 to 4 inches to no snow and then have to bump it up again. I’m not completely sold I’m going to wait and see what the evening &… Read more »

Kathy
Guest
Kathy

Guess I’m the only one on here who didn’t want snow, especially in April. Are we going to get any moisture at all from this Friday event or is that gone as well?

Rod
Guest
Rod

Sunday snow is still there and has not vanished yet models showing a couple inches with that, so snow lovers hang on.

Joe
Guest
Joe

In the models we trust….LOL

Richard
Guest
Richard

Not buying it at all !
Gary has not even talked about it.
Models showed snow for Friday last night !

Give it up with the model watching for snow ! Enough

choppy
Guest
choppy

Nobody is talking about snow Sunday.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LoL…Joe Bastardi talking about the flip flopping models today too.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Bastardi (what a name to live with). Isn’t he on a pay site ?

Richard
Guest
Richard

LOL !
Accuweather still calling for 2-4 for Olathe ! Don’t they use models ?? Did they look at them this morning ?

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/olathe-ks/66061/daily-weather-forecast/328849?day=2

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

They were calling for 3-6 just last night.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Folks at Colorado State U. are predicting a slightly above avg. hurricane season-14 named storms of which 7 will become hurricanes. 3 of the seven will become major they say.

NoSnowflake
Guest
NoSnowflake

To be fair, as recently as yesterday afternoon even this station was going 3-6″ for the southern half of the metro.

https://twitter.com/GerardJebaily/status/981621898198085632

Roger
Guest
Roger

Ahhhh….Something you CAN count on in this LRC.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?KS

Richard
Guest
Richard

Holy KaJOEly !
Drought ramping up ! Not good

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

I rest my case (regarding the models). Now that I’ve said that I have ensured a 12″ blizzard tomorrow night…lol

MMike
Guest
MMike

Lyitc41, So, the models are wrong, huh? LOL The trend right now is for little snowfall, so, if that happens tomorrow, the models actually will be right in making the change. Wouldn’t a model be wrong if it predicts 10 inches of snow and sticks to it, then tomorrow passes and very little to no snow occurred. I thing that’s when the model data would be labeled wrong. Do you not agree with that?? The data has actually made the right change, so, they will be right if little to no snow falls tomorrow. SB Sunday, the data pulled the… Read more »

Brian
Guest
Brian

But the models said it was going to happen, you guys! The models said it was going to happen!

I mean, all those links were posted yesterday. I mean, if a link is posted, doesn’t that mean it’s true?

I have never known the models to be wrong 48, 72, 96 hours or 10 days out…well not this year, at least. They have always been right, except when they aren’t.

Let’s go Spring!

Joe
Guest
Joe

LOL!!!! Modelitis…when will people learn?? On a positive note, I bet all the hype/wishcasting drove web traffic drove web traffic for this site through the roof.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Joe,

Web traffic on this site is unimportant. If you haven’t noticed, there are no sponsors paying for advertisements. Not sure why web traffic is mentioned. On another note, yes, folks get caught up in the models, they are supposed to be reliable, but have proven a little moody over the past few years 😀 This is a weather blog, a place to come have fun and discuss all aspects of the weather.

Adam
Guest
Adam

Looks like I wasn’t just being negative, eh?? All you had to do was just looks at the pattern. Look at the type or wave, and understand that circumstance has not and would not produce this winter. Heat doesn’t like my attitude?? Wanna know what I don’t like? Someone telling me I’m negative when I’m just being realistic. People on here only like it if you’re hyping. That’s so dumb. I am in no way surprised about the end result, because I saw this coming from a mile away. I will credit Gary for never fully buying in. Ever since… Read more »

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

Heat is a grown man who acts like an entitled brat. Guess what?-he’s singe too! Who the f@ck would put up with his snarkiness?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Shhh troll….your sole point of existence is to troll a weather blog…lol, you are in no position to call others brats. Go back to your hole and I’ll go back to not reading your comments.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

You need to work on your presentation dude.

MMike
Guest
MMike

Adam, First off, nice call. It’s April after all and it was a pretty easy call. Getting one snow in April is hard, let alone two. With that being said, the same call from you and many others this past winter weren’t always right so that is why you still hold out/discuss until the event actually passes. The fun part of the blog is to look at those forecasts from the models and track it, otherwise, what else would we do on here. The reason you track it all the way until the end is because things do change. Did… Read more »

Roger
Guest
Roger

California is in their wet season. No surprise to me. Southern California still averaging 4-8+ inch deficits with Northern California ranging from 12-16+ inch deficits since October 1st.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Adam If this thing does go poof completely, I will be wrong on my forecast of someone in the viewing area getting a good amount of moisture. For an explanation why I felt that way, this system fits the LRC like a glove and was a good indicator of what would likely happen, getting missed. My erroneous prediction is not a reflection of the LRC, rather my novice skills. I felt that this system would be more functional in this cycle due to dynamic changes ( spring, gulf moisture, changes in jet stream) in the atmosphere. In a nutshell, I… Read more »

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

New NAM really has things going poof.

Tim
Guest
Tim

LOL– aint the the truth. Anybody know when the first runs that had data samplings of the storm environment? I thought maybe the 00z may have included this?

Nate
Guest
Nate

It’s April 5th, why on earth would anyone be concerning themselves with snow? This is T-Storm season…the season for real men, not childish kids wanting a snow day

Rod
Guest
Rod

Some of us work & accumulate comp time like myself that can only be used when the state issues the hazardous travel policy. Unfortunately this winter there hasn’t been a single day that this has been issued in central MO for the Troop F area therefore I haven’t gotten even one paid snow day off. I was really hoping for snow on a weekday so I can stay home & enjoy it with my kids. With winter being my favorite season this has been very frustrating & disappointing so as a grown adult & 0% childish I’m still wishing for… Read more »

Steve
Guest
Steve

Damn, I don’t care snow, rain just need the moisture. Something!!! Getting a bad feeling about summer rain’s!!

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

NWS still has 1-2 inches in their forecast for tomorrow night.

Richard
Guest
Richard

KCMO at 8 a.m. on their twitter

“City crews will enjoy the spring weather today by preparing roadways for the winter weather expected tomorrow! Crews are applying brine (saltwater) to main roadways today and vehicles are mounted and ready for whatever tomorrow brings.”

Somebody tell them it went poof !

Jason
Guest
Jason

If they don’t treat, and we actually get a little weather, everyone will be mad at them. No win situation. They have to treat just in case

Terry
Guest
Terry

Everyone we still have today on the models to see how they trend . From the Gfs 00z fo the Gfs 06z it change that fast. So like gary said let’s see how the models trend today and even tomorrow morning few and like gary said yesterday in blog and again this morning. Everyone remember how it was on the Christmas eve forecast went to yes and No and yes some snow. Now on to tomorrow wave Maybe it will trend in Another direction today in the blog. I dont give up to easy yes I might be wrong and… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

Terry
Enjoy today. Get outside. Get some rays.
Its beautiful out. Birds are singing.
Because the snow might not be coming, but the cold is.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary
Will this system produce a big snow on the east coast again ?

And what about Sunday. You have not mentioned it with all the focus being on this poof storm

Spaceotter
Guest
Spaceotter

Whew, helping someone move Friday and or Saturday morning. Did not want snow.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Adam you were right on !

terry where are you now. I like your enthusiasm, but not your put-downs.

Everyone got modelitis. Again.
But the LRC has told us all winter long what would happen. Models be damned !

Terry
Guest
Terry

Lol maybe and maybe

Terry
Guest
Terry

Not

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

That’s my only complaint about him, not his predictions, his attitude

Mike Holm
Guest
Mike Holm

Just heard you on a 810, you know since you predicted a dusting we’re going to get hammered now. Was that reverse psychology?

Tim
Guest
Tim

You know.. I wouldn’t count it out yet. At the end of the day what Mother Nature does– is what Mother Nature does. The models have no influence over that. If you cant predict a snowstorm when the models show snow– then how can one accurately say there will not be a snowstorm or “poof” when they show nothing or little– We’ve been fooled by that once already this year.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

The reason this Poof makes so much sense is because this is exactly what has happened time and time again during this LRC. I’m really not sure how people aren’t catching on to something so obvious. The LRC pattern is the same thing over and over again. Why would we expect a snowstorm in April when we can barely get an inch out of this pattern? This thing had Poof written all over it from the start, especially with how many storms have been suppressed to the south by dry, cold air this year. Put a fork in her, she’s… Read more »

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Poof, the Magic Snowstorm, who never gives us snow! And dumps all the snow-oh-oh on the NorthEast! Weatherman Gary Lezak tries to calm the Bloggers, and give them hope on Next years LRC! LOL I was trying to follow the Peter, Paul, and Mary song! Have a great day Bloggers.
Michael

Patti
Guest
Patti

I, for one, will be thrilled with a POOF. I am so beyond ready for sunshine and warmth and leaves on the trees, etc, etc, etc.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Yeah, me too, kinda sorta. It would be fun in a way getting a freak big snowstorm in April, but when you get down to it, I’m more than ready for spring. So I have mixed feelings about this.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

LRC! LRC! LRC! LRC! LRC!

Seriously – it’s the same but the same – unless it’s Spring then we get a ton of rain when in winter we don’t get jack squat. Just enough to throw off those who all but fully buy into it being the same.