Good morning,

What a pattern! We had the expected and forecasted “Snow Easter”.  6″ of snow up in northern Missouri fell on Easter Sunday.  Now, could it happen again later this week? There is a lot that needs to happen, but there is a trend in the direction of snow.  Let’s begin with this morning.

Today’s weather:  Another strong cold front is moving through.

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Temperatures are near 70 degrees over northeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas this morning. The low pressure area is centered just south of Kansas City at 7:20 AM.  This is a surface cyclone and it is tracking east along that warm front, the red line.  Cold air will blast back in once this moves through. There is a band of rain associated with this system, and snowflakes are not out of the question early this afternoon, but it will not be anything significant near KC. The heavier snow will be way up to the north.

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This next map above shows the forecast valid at 10 AM this morning, and the map below shows what happens with this system by tomorrow morning with most of Michigan in the snowstorm, while KC has near record lows.

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A look into the end of the week set up:  What is forecast to happen next will be interesting.

2

The models have been showing some potential for snowfall, and significant amounts, near KC by Friday night. This chance is highly dependent on two main upper level features that I show above. There is really a ridge forming near the west coast. A wave sneaks through this ridge and heads out over the Rocky Mountains and into the plains states.  If this is any weaker, or the energy moving through the Great Lakes is any stronger, then the chance of snow will be less and be forced farther south. But, if there is a perfect combination, then it will be fascinating near KC by Friday.

Out ahead of this system will be a substantial warm up for one day on Thursday:

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We wil be monitoring this closely. The latest model trend overnight was in the snowier direction, but we need more consistency. There was that consistency developing by around three days before the “Snow Easter” we had on Sunday.  So, let’s see if a trend begins in the snowier direction, or the less snowy direction.

Have a great day! Go over to the Weather2020 blog and we can analyze the new data together and look to see if there is a trend in the snowy direction.

Gary

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WeathermanKumke
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WeathermanKumke

Also, remember, we had snow in May back in 2013. It can happen and it will happen Friday.

WeathermanKumke
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WeathermanKumke

I’m ALL IN on the Thundersnow for Friday. Sound the Alarm!!!! 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨

brad35812000@yahoo.com
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brad35812000@yahoo.com

Gary

What has been the latest time a winter storm warning are watch ahs been issued for this are in the year ?

Jack
Guest
Jack

I think we need to keep in mind this year that the models have always tended to trend more north and less in amounts as the storm gets closer. Right now I think near and south of kc at the most will be five inches, if that. The GFS is not as high in totals as the NAM. It is going to snow, at least it better snow, but let’s all remember what the pattern of this year has been like.

I am also a snow lover, so bring the snow!!

Jack

Rod
Guest
Rod

New NAM, 6” of snow across central MO & Boone County. ❄️😀

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Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I’m, dreaming, of a white, April. Just like the ones I used to know. Where the birds stop singing, and flowers are clinging, to life, as they are weighted down with heavy snow.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

LOL.

I might add, it’s not just KC, but pretty much the whole Midwest is going to get hammered:
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Rod
Guest
Rod

Heat,
Good one, just like the weather pattern is giving us a nice twist you add a twist of your own to Dreaming of a white Christmas except its the April version. Nicely done sir!! 😀

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Just saw that. I know the storm is still off the coast and a lot could go wrong. But the nam has been pretty consistent the last few runs. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018040400&fh=81&r=conus&dpdt=

Craig
Guest
Craig

0Z NAM makes it clear that Friday night in the big town will be a snowy one.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

I’m, dreaming, of a white, April. Just like the ones I used to know. Where the birds stop singing, and flowers are clinging, to life, as they are weighted down with heavy snow.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Awesome 😎

Rod
Guest
Rod

Even the weather channel is really on board with higher snow totals. They have 1-3” on Friday afternoon & another 3-5” Friday night for a 4-8” storm total just south of me in Jefferson City, MO. Loving the trends. I would of been happy if I would of picked up 2-4” of snow on Easter instead had 0.6” of pure graupe/snow pellets so I’ve yet to get any snow all winter over 2” in Ashland so hoping Friday & Sunday give me a double dose of snow. Sunday is already showing 1-3” of snow for my local area on top… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary
Looks like central CA will get hit with a late season atmospheric river Fri-Sat !

https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/981315962279411712?s=20

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Lol emaw, it wast that deep in the front. I let my dog out and noticed it was much deeper in the back. I plowed and blew out switches all day. Fortunately, some guys r staying later that what i did so hopefully no overnight calls

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Stl, many bloggers would call that 10″ haha. Richard, any snow we get in April has to count towards this past winter, calendar be damned. 2018 – “The spring that wasn’t “!

Richard
Guest
Richard

After making that statement I reconsidered. Yeah, it would have to count.
Calendar be damned is right !
Anonymous by choice and Mr. Pete are wrong.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Emaw,

BRAVO!!!!!!!!!

Richard
Guest
Richard

Calm down. Chill

Pam
Guest
Pam

Given the unseasonal weather we’ve had in April, how much will that affect our severe weather season through the rest of spring into summer?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Richard i was guessing based on what i plowed out front but i think its quite a bit more. The back of the house is more protected from the wind too. Now melt and give me warmth and sunshine!!

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary
Colorado and mountain States often get a lot of snow after the Spring Equinox.
So, in any of those areas, if those area mets make winter snowfall predictions, do they have a cutoff date ?
Would you have March 20 as a cutoff date if you were predicting for any of those ?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

My 6 in might have been low. Ill put a pic of my table as my gravatar on in a few

Richard
Guest
Richard

Looks like more than 6. Did you measure that ?

Anonymous by choice
Guest
Anonymous by choice

I would think something as big as the LRC could have predicted a super cold start to April, an April snowfall or two and severe weather at least 60 days in advance. But, I guess not. But somehow the LRC predicted it? Throws BS flag.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I’m not sure that anyone or any model predicted this crazy cold April.

JoeK
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JoeK

The LRC did predict it, go back and read through my posts and you, yourself, could have used the LRC to predict the same. You can post your “BS” until the end of time, it will not take away from the fact that the LRC has been amazingly accurate this year

terry
Guest
terry

Gary or someone If we get the snow doesn’t count towards the Winter snowfall amounts?

Anonymous by choice
Guest
Anonymous by choice

No, it’s not Meteorological Winter and it’s not actual Winter any longer.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Nope.

Richard
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Richard

I think even Gary would agree the answer is no.
But if we end up getting the 21 inch predicted, who knows ? He might say it verified.
It was for the winter 2017-2018.

Colorado and mountain States get a lot of big snows after the Spring Equinox.
So, in any of those areas, if those area mets make winter snowfall predictions, do they have a cutoff date ?

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Why? The winter ends when the season dictates it does. How does a date on the calendar make any difference? If we get 21 inches, the amount verified regardless of when. I am at a loss as to the constant attempts to literally find ways for Gary or the LRC to be wrong. Now, Gary already admitted he expected a few of these storms to repeat more functional in Cycles 2 and 3 and they didn’t.

Richard
Guest
Richard

joeK
Calm down.
I wasn’t in any way saying Gary would be wrong.
He would say it verified…..and he would be RIGHT ON !

I think these grey cold days are getting to you.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Richard,

That was meant for anonymous by choice. I am calm Richard and what I stated, I stand behind as it is the truth and you are on here enough to know that there are many that look for every possible way Gary and/or the LRC are wrong. No, the cold days are not getting to me, the ignorance on this blog is getting to me. 😀

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

So if it snows in early summer too that would count?

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I drove to Saint Louis this morning. Temps jumped almost 40 degrees when I hit Columbia.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I’m not believing anything until the same is being said this time tomorrow.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Just used the snow blower on about 6 in of heavy wet snow. Most likely another 1 to 3 before its all over. Talkin snow for thur and sun. Where was this in dec. I dont want it in april!!

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Just to be clear, the nice Word Smithing comment was for REAL HUMEDUDE. I do not support cadet bone spurs.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

That would be great

Lary Gezak
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Lary Gezak

Good God the NAM for this Friday…

Anonymous
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Anonymous

can you post a link?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

If the models are still showing these numbers this time tomorrow…I’ll start to take it more seriously

terry
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terry

Heat at least it’s not 10 days out. Its 3 days out have faith in it.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

5-6 inches on the latest NAM:
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Remembercody
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Remembercody

Before I left KC for Hawaii two weeks ago, I told my roommates to mark my words, that it will snow while I am gone, and BOOM, Easter sundee snow! I arrive back in KC Thursday AM, and I guarantee you all, once I get back, Friday’s snow chance will go POOF! I don’t know why the snow in KC hates me, but it almost never snows when I am there. Mark my words! Trust in the LRC. It is a good indicator of what should (or shouldn’t) happen.

Aloha 😄

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Good Afternoon Gary and Friends. Just a quick message regarding the potential snow this Friday. Yes, the Euro also shows snow, but just not as much here in the metro area. There is snow to the north and south, while the GFS has us in some good snow with most of it down by HumeDude’s Farm through central Missouri! Also, looking ahead……more snow coming in mid Sunday morning and then through the afternoon (both Euro/GFS). As for me, I’m supposed to be heading out to Palm Springs, CA on Sunday. I hope my flight leaves before the snow arrives (if… Read more »

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Do you have a link to the euro?

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/snow-depth-in/20180409-0000z.html Try this link, it’s for Sunday. I’ve zoomed out to show the entire US. Euro showing less snow in KC metro, but over towards central Missouri and St Louis is where it shows the action. Same for GFS, but slightly more snow in and around KC metro.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Rockdoc
Is that one day, or 10 day total ??

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary
The Royals game is being played now 1-0 Royals. They did not cancel like you thought “they might.”

And heres a nugget about the NYC snow yesterday. Yesterday’s storm was the biggest April snowstorm to hit New York City in nearly four decades. Yankees home opener was cancelled.

Rod
Guest
Rod

I just read the KC National Weather Service forecast discussion page and they don’t think it’s going to amount to anything other than a few flurries or light snow showers and that there’s not much moisture to work with. However if you read the forecast discussion page for the St. Louis and Springfield offices They have a little bit of a different opinion. I’m kind of surprised there’s been a lot of model consistency, my only guess is they’re being cautiously optimistic and not sticking their heads out there just yet. When the Nam Canadian and GFS are all showing… Read more »

Kristi
Guest
Kristi

Gary,
Sorry – I am not concerned about snow totals – but I am concerned about weekend temps. Supposed to have baseball/softball tournaments in the metro this weekend and curious if temps will get out of the 30’s either Sat or Sun – what about overnight lows Friday night and Saturday night?

Thanks!

Fred
Guest
Fred

Every person should know that the “snow” on Friday won’t happen. Don’t be fooled by the models.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

It may snow, just not “bigly” as a certain moron might say.

Bob
Guest
Bob

Unfortunate comment. Try to keep your opinions about politics and the President out of the blog. You can go to CNN, Yahoo, or any other website and express your opinions. Not here.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Take your medication Bob, you’ll be alright. Last time I looked no one had died and made you queen of the blog.

Bob
Guest
Bob

Again, another unfortunate comment. Internet tough guy. On a weather blog.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I also heard him say “We will build a great Snow Wall. And the Meteorologists will pay for it!”

Now he has to decide what to do about the snowflake convoy.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

The guy tweets about Amazon and they lose 30 billion that same day, he intentionally did that to hurt Amazon because he doesn’t like Bezos. Too bad millions of Americans 401K is tied to Amazon, he doesn’t care what damage he inflicts upon our economy as long as he isn’t broke. He is a chaos President, he is doing this intentionally. Russia scored a direct hit with him, he has sowed great unrest in our nation and he seeks to divide us further

Fred
Guest
Fred

That’s funny. 😀

MMike
Guest
MMike

Hume, Geezs, a guy comes in and tells it how it is and all you on the left get so bent out of shape. We have been taken advantage of for so long…he’s here to change that. Of course it will cause chaos, change is chaos. He’s tired of us getting screwed over. He’s tired of taking care of countries that don’t want to help themselves. I know, we’re a proud and strong country, we should help out at times. But, some of these countries don;t do anything to help their own…so, we can only help so much and for… Read more »

Scott
Guest
Scott

Nice word smithing.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Zing, zing and more zing! Love Hume’s response too. My 401K has taken a massive hit since February. So it looks like I may be working until I drop dead the way things are going…..how many more trade agreements can he blow up and how many more companies will be attacked. Actually, I’m glad i don’t own FB or the other social media stocks given that they are going in the toilet with how they collect, use and sell our information. Especially FB collecting all of our phone call records, and even text messages!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Applause to MMike great comment

MMike
Guest
MMike

Hey Kurt,

Thanks
I know you need some moisture, did you think it was gonna come in the form of snow in April? Crazy.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Hume, I have realized you must be younger and also, completely immersed into media/social media as you commonly have these political outbursts. I have one question regarding your Amazon comment, do you know how many retail businesses Amazon has been responsible for shutting down? The billions of tax dollars cities and states are currently losing and the tens of thousands of job loss do to online sales? I normally stay out of these conversations, but I grow more tired of this insane epidemic of media filled and fed ANTI-everything, protest, protest protest, wine and moan, find a safe place and… Read more »

terry
Guest
terry

Lol

MMike
Guest
MMike

Fred, Most folks said last week that the snow the models were showing for Easter would not happen…..It snowed!! Biggest snow of the season for many areas in northern MO to NE MO. We’ll see how it trends but the trend right now is rather impressive for late season cold and a few shots at accumulating snow. The GFS has us below freezing late Friday all the way until Monday…that would be something for April. I love snow and if it’s going to be cold and crappy, might as well snow. However, I’m ready for spring now. It’s been muddy/wet/cloudy… Read more »

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

It probably is muddy down there, up here it’s mud just about the top 1 inch and bone dry anything lower than that. It’s all persoectIve and yes I’d love warm and rain, but will gladly take snow like this that can melt into the dry dry dry soil up here. I hope it warms up after this bout of cold and several dry sunny days in the 60s, 70s and up to 80 will make it look like there wasn’t any rain/snow at all up here. Would love to be faced with the dilemma of a wet drought and… Read more »

MMike
Guest
MMike

Kurt,

Lots of action coming up, hopefully you will get things going up your way as far as some deep moisture goes.
Good Luck!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

It’s crazy it took the biggest snow this winter, to get more in one April day than all of March. This windchill is nuts and can’t imagine what all the trees shrubs and flowers are going through

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

Gary, should we watch around April 12-13 for a severe weather outbreak? Looks like a decent warm up around then.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

What is the EURO saying for Friday night? Latest NAM slams metro with a period of very heavy snow around Midnight Friday night

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

The 00z had a couple in if i recall lookin at it earlier. Ill look later today at 12z

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary
Thanks for giving us a forecast on here

DanT
Guest
DanT

A few thoughts this morning- How long will the blocking high be in place before is cycles away and then is the NAO in the negative range? I would think it would have to be-

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

It could b worse kc. Snowing pretty hard here in pepin wi. Callin for up to a ft. If u still want this white stuff, come on up, u can help me plow!!

Richard
Guest
Richard

I see that on radar ! Wow
Its a lot this time of year even by MN standards, eh ?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

How much snow “potential” do you see with this one Gary? Milk and bread already on shopping list! lol

Jim
Guest
Jim

What does the LRC suggest is going to happen Friday? Easy to claim victory after the fact. Stick by your system.

Tim
Guest
Tim

Well, think about it this way– if it was warmer it would be a serious severe weather setup probably this weekend. So while a major snow storm in April is just wrong and a major tease with the grass turning green and the flowers starting to perk up– I’ll take the snow storm instead of the severe weather– already having to replace my roof after the major hail storm a week ago in Lone Jack.

Jason
Guest
Jason

I’ll rephrase snow miser’s comment. When does spring arrive and stay around?

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

This is the one! Biggest snow in KC history! Go get milk and bread asap!

Roger
Guest
Roger

Wind and cold is all I see. Lol. Of course I’m only talking about central Kansas.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Don’t believe anything 96 hrs out, the GooFuS has more, the Canadian has less and I don’t believe either one. It may snow, but not to worried about how much now. Love the moisture over the weekend just hate how cold it’s been and will get tonight.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

lol…GooFuS

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

So … when does spring arrive?