Good morning from Cancun, MX,
It’s Friday, and the weather pattern is rather fascinating. Here in Cancun, Mexico it is finally warm and humid. It is the first humidity I have felt since I have been here, so the dew points were under 60 degrees near the Yucatan Peninsula due to the latest major eastern storm system that tracked off the east coast earlier in the week. It dragged a cold front all the way down into where I am vacationing. This is actually important for the weather in Kansas City. The lower dew points down south have created this storm system to be lacking the moisture that it could have in a different year, a different set up. As we saw last year in March, there was a major severe weather outbreak near KC on March 6h, and this set up could certainly have produced one too, but take a look at this fascinating surface map I just plotted:
A strong surface cyclone is tracking across northern Kansas this morning. There is snow on the northwest quadrant of this storm, while KC had a band of rain already move by this morning. There is a narrow corridor of 55°+ dew points surging in from the south in the warm sector. The warm sector is the region between the warm front (red line) and the cold front (blue line). The black dashed line is a trough, or what is usually a dry line, but it isn’t quite one today, but it is close. If the dew points were higher, then the severe weather risk would be much more enhanced, but they are not, and again, the weather I have been experiencing in Cancun, where you sort of needed a light coat at night the past few days, is a big factor.
There is not even a slight risk today. There is a marginal risk and it just appears that it is too cool, with the dew points too low, which reduces the amount of instability. So, any risk of severe weather is quite low. We need to get thunderstorms generated first, and this is doubtful for this afternoon as strong as this system looks.
The next storm has my attention:
This storm takes a favorable track to produce very heavy rainfall near Kansas City:
That is a 2″ bullseye right near KC on the latest NAM model. Don’t get too excited yet, as we have been through an entire season of non producing storm systems. But, could this one break the ice? This storm is actually directly related to the October 22nd to 24th part of the pattern in the first cycle. If you analyze closely you will see the similarities. Incredible comparison, and October 22-24 did produce heavy rain near KC. This happened 147 days ago, or around a 49-day cycle. Remember, the pattern is cycling in the 44 to 51 day range, so this fits quite well. We are moving into the spring version of this pattern. Last year the storm systems started producing right around this time of the year. This will be a big test for this year.
* And, yes, I saw that it turned to snow on Monday. And, I will say it again, be careful on any chance of snow Kansas City has, as we have experienced a lot, or actually not much, when it comes to these chances. It is fun to look at, however. As I always say, if the trend continues in this direction, then our discussion will change in the coming days!
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Have a great day. I am going to enjoy my last day in Cancun to the fullest. I still like Hawaii better, and it is not even close, but today is a gorgeous day, so some pool time, sunscreen, and some basketball. Have a great day!