And the Beat Goes on, Another Dud Storm

Good Wednesday bloggers,

Today we have 100% sunshine, southwest winds gusting to 35 mph and humidity values between 15% and 25%. This is nice weather, but it leads to a very high fire danger. The only way to solve the fire danger problem is to receive a widespread soaking rain. Well, there is a storm system that will affect our weather on Friday and the last few days it looked like we could see .25″ to 1″ of rain. I am sure you can guess, especially if you’re a weather enthusiast, what the trend in the data is showing. Yep, we are down to a one to two hour band of rain Friday morning with amounts trace to .25″. Now, a few locations may see .25″ to .50″, but it is looking less likely.

There are two more storm systems to track next week, perhaps one of those will be more productive. The potential is there, but it will be hard to go for a decent rain until there is hard evidence that it is actually occurring.

It is what it is, so let’s go through this next system.

We are in a Fire Weather Warning until 7 PM, so be aware of this very high fire danger and use thought where you dispose of cigarettes.

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WEDNESDAY: It will be a sunny and windy day with southwest wind gusts to 35, taking highs to the 60s. There is very little moisture in the air and the ground is quite dry, which leads to the very high fire danger. A cold front will be located along I-80, arriving to I-70 Thursday. This front will stall Friday playing havoc with our forecast.

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THURSDAY: The front will be in the area, but it will be dry as dew points will be in the 30s and 40s. Highs will still reach the 60s with 80s in southwest Kansas. The fire danger will be high once again.

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FRIDAY MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM: This is when we have the best chance of rain and perhaps a thunderstorm as the system from the western USA moves into the Plains. The front will be to the south, so temperatures will be in the 40s.

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FRIDAY AFTERNOON: The rain moves off and the front moves north as a warm front, stalling near or just north of KC. Look at the temperature difference form south to north! Temperatures will range from the 70s just south of KC to around 40° in northern Missouri. So, the placement of the front is going to be critical to the high temperature you experience. This is why our temperature forecast for Friday-St. Patirck’s day has been all over the place. We are going to go around 60° for Friday in KC, but it could easily be 75° or 45°. We are leaning in the warmer direction.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: Rainfall amounts will be mostly in the trace to .25″ range. If more thunderstorms form, then some locations could see .25″ to 50″. It looks like the best chance for heavier totals will occur in northern and central Missouri. Could this change and be more rain? Sure, but until we see the evidence this is our going forecast.

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Have a great rest of your day and week.

Jeff Penner

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Roger
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Roger
Roger
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Roger
Emaw
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Emaw

Rod, I look forward to reporting my snow totals on Tuesday.

Rod
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Rod

Late Mon night & Tuesday, snow on latest GFS, especially for central & eastern MO, but KC May get on it as well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Rod, Ashland, MO

Richard
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Richard

Same one that will give the east coast their 4th one in a 2 week period.

Where were all of those systems for the east coast 47-51 days ago ?
I know they have had snow this year, but 4 systems in 2 weeks ?

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

It was a slow weather day I guess!
Lol
We need a storm, Kieth needs some rain to lighten him up and restore his faith in humanity

Tdogg
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Tdogg

You blog a lot for a “farmer” I bet you don’t even farm….rent your families land at most.

Three7s
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Three7s

I don’t like getting into religion/politics here because that’s not what this blog is about, but I do want to say one thing on the subject. People like to combine the two, but with my Christian faith, I absolutely detest politics. For me, there is only one leader, and that is my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ. I didn’t and never even thought about voting for Trump or Clinton, as neither of the two candidates showed any Christian aspects to their character at all. Do I expect perfection out of the President? No, because there is only one that has… Read more »

Three7s
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Three7s

I should probably add that the same goes for other figures that hold precedence like Hawking. I respect everything he’s done for society and what he’s brought to the scientific community. Whether he was or wasn’t a Christian doesn’t matter to me because Jesus said to love my friend and my enemy. We may not have the same faith, but I don’t hold it against him or any other Aetheists and I expect the same from them.

LP
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LP

Bravo.

Brian
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Brian

Amen

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Its a shame you don’t care about what happens to our country…for whoever wins can dramatically affect it and change its course for the better or worse. Trump has an ego for sure, but then, most at that level do. Obama was extremely arrogant for example. But Trump is shaking up the establishment, calling things as he see’s it, and making great strides at fixing our economy and country. And, he’s at times hilarious and his attacking the mostly liberal corrupt press is awesome too. Hillary is corrupt and represents everything that’s wrong with the establishment in D.C. She’s also… Read more »

Richard
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Richard

Urbanity
I am a Christian and a liberal. And that is all.
Not a libtard. I would not call Republicans contards or rightards.
I did not vote for Clinton. I did not vote for Trump. I vote my conscience.
Name calling does not accomplish anything. It is childish. We are not children.
I believe in God. I also believe in helping my fellow man when they need a helping hand.
I refute the belief by comservatives that real Christians only vote Republican.
I won’t argue about it. But will tell you that you are dead wrong.

Enough said.
Hope you come back Urbanity

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

not that anyone cares but I am not a liberal and I am a practicing Catholic. And I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night

Emaw
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Emaw

Hahaha Stl you’re killing me!🤣

Urbanity
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Urbanity

We’ve talked politics and religion on this blog, what I have discovered is that most on this blog are Liberal, and non-Christian. Those things go hand in hand and I wish I knew why. I rather not walk in this valley.

Richard, I’m taking one out of your playbook and ex-communicating from this blog.

LP
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LP

Science is real. I am a liberal and an atheist, but is that a reason we can’t discuss the weather? Wow.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

I’m a conservative and agnostic, which seems pretty reasonable considering there is no way for anyone to really know if there is a god. Many need to believe it though, and a brilliant scientist stating that there didn’t need to be a god for the universe have been created…well, many find that threatening, so I can see how they would try to diminish him as a result.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

I saw a blade of grass on a south-facing yard today Woohoo

Scott
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Scott

Stephen Hawkins was a genius. Whether he believed in a god or not does not make a difference. He advanced our understanding of the universe and inspired many people by overcoming his disabilities. He will be missed.

Ben
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Ben

Good grief, Urbanity. I find it harder and harder to defend my Christian faith to people as time goes on. All they have to do is point out the fact that people like you call people like Stephen Hawking over-hyped and childish. If you’ve got the cheek to insult one of the greatest theoretical physicists in the history of the world because you can’t figure out how to make your religion coexist with science, the problem is yours. Just remember that you’re posting your comment in the blog of a scientist and that many others who come here are doing… Read more »

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Good grief Ben, try reading my comment correctly. I can tell by your interpretation of my comment that you don’t have any Christian faith, but I bet your a great scientist.

Ben
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Ben

I just re-read your comment and don’t feel at all like I missed anything. I seriously cannot believe that someone could call Stephen Hawking over-hyped or a modest physicist mind. This is truly baffling. I just hope the world is able to recognize that you do not speak for the rest of us who call ourselves Christians or adherents to any religion, for that matter. This is the 21st century, for crying out loud.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

When a brilliant man like Hawking says there didn’t need to be a creator for the Universe, or big bang, to occur, many religious folks find that very threatening. Nobody knows if there is or isn’t an intelligent creator, but many need to believe that there is, no question.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Some feel the need to reduce Hawking because he was an atheist, maybe he had a perspective you can only imagine. Funny how religious people tend to throw the first stone, even when taught by their god specifically not to judge they just cant help themselves. I have come to his same conclusion, that’s not why he was celebrated however. He was celebrated because he had a terrible affliction and persevered through it to accomplish great things, most people would have rolled over and died long ago but not him. He is now with Sagan and Einstein, on the other… Read more »

Urbanity
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Urbanity

No Hume, the media liked him because he was an atheist, pure and simple, they want that Big Bang theory validated. It’s funny how an atheist like yourself think that a stone was thrown because someone says what I said about the media. Why do you love the media so much?? In your mind he can’t be in another spectrum, he is merely decaying matter at this point. Don’t tell me you believe his spirit of some kind moving to another spectrum but don’t believe God created the Earth??

KS Jones
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KS Jones

There is a theory that links ALS and exposer to Cyanobacteria (aka “blue-green algae”). In recent years, Milford Lake (the largest lake in Kansas) has been plagued with high concentrations of Cyanobacteria, and samples taken in September through October of 2011 showed “concentrations were 650 to 7,500 times higher than the KDHE guidance level for a public health warning.”

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Hawking passed away, RIP, but he was definitely the most over-hyped physicist of all time. In the history of great physicist’s Hawking would be obscure in the development of theories involving terrestrial influences. Because he wanted to supplant the idea of a God, a childish and unrealistic belief in his mind, the media loved him, but in addition he also became relevant during a time when man was discovering the moon, looking into space. You take a modest physicist mind and devote it to an unmeasurable extra-terrestrial event and you can come away with tremendous ideas and theories, some of… Read more »

Rod
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Rod

Need to watch Mon night into Tuesday. For my local area near Columbia NWS has rain mixing with or changing to snow with temps in the lower to mid 30’s by early Tuesday morning with a mix on Tuesday during the day as we possibly get in on the wrap around colder air. Winter isn’t over yet.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

43 with full sunshine and alot of melting!! 😀😀😀. Snow snow go away

Three7s
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Three7s

Still waiting for cycle 5 and increased moisture flow.