Good Wednesday bloggers,
Today we have 100% sunshine, southwest winds gusting to 35 mph and humidity values between 15% and 25%. This is nice weather, but it leads to a very high fire danger. The only way to solve the fire danger problem is to receive a widespread soaking rain. Well, there is a storm system that will affect our weather on Friday and the last few days it looked like we could see .25″ to 1″ of rain. I am sure you can guess, especially if you’re a weather enthusiast, what the trend in the data is showing. Yep, we are down to a one to two hour band of rain Friday morning with amounts trace to .25″. Now, a few locations may see .25″ to .50″, but it is looking less likely.
There are two more storm systems to track next week, perhaps one of those will be more productive. The potential is there, but it will be hard to go for a decent rain until there is hard evidence that it is actually occurring.
It is what it is, so let’s go through this next system.
We are in a Fire Weather Warning until 7 PM, so be aware of this very high fire danger and use thought where you dispose of cigarettes.
WEDNESDAY: It will be a sunny and windy day with southwest wind gusts to 35, taking highs to the 60s. There is very little moisture in the air and the ground is quite dry, which leads to the very high fire danger. A cold front will be located along I-80, arriving to I-70 Thursday. This front will stall Friday playing havoc with our forecast.
THURSDAY: The front will be in the area, but it will be dry as dew points will be in the 30s and 40s. Highs will still reach the 60s with 80s in southwest Kansas. The fire danger will be high once again.
FRIDAY MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM: This is when we have the best chance of rain and perhaps a thunderstorm as the system from the western USA moves into the Plains. The front will be to the south, so temperatures will be in the 40s.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: The rain moves off and the front moves north as a warm front, stalling near or just north of KC. Look at the temperature difference form south to north! Temperatures will range from the 70s just south of KC to around 40° in northern Missouri. So, the placement of the front is going to be critical to the high temperature you experience. This is why our temperature forecast for Friday-St. Patirck’s day has been all over the place. We are going to go around 60° for Friday in KC, but it could easily be 75° or 45°. We are leaning in the warmer direction.
RAINFALL FORECAST: Rainfall amounts will be mostly in the trace to .25″ range. If more thunderstorms form, then some locations could see .25″ to 50″. It looks like the best chance for heavier totals will occur in northern and central Missouri. Could this change and be more rain? Sure, but until we see the evidence this is our going forecast.
Have a great rest of your day and week.