A Huge Warm Up and Storm System

/A Huge Warm Up and Storm System

A Huge Warm Up and Storm System

Good Tuesday bloggers,

We are tracking two main weather events the next five days as we motor towards Spring. First, we have a huge warm up for Wednesday and Thursday, into the 60s. Second, we have a storm system Friday and Saturday. Will this storm system finally bring us widespread decent rainfall?

WEDNESDAY: The day will start with lows in the 20s. Then, by afternoon with dry air, a brisk southwest wind and 100% sunshine we will warm forty degrees to the 60s!

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THURSDAY: This is when the weather becomes more complex. A cold front will head south towards I-70 with highs in the 60s in KC to the 80s in southwest Kansas. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s across Nebraska and Iowa. High clouds will be increasing as Gulf of Mexico moisture flows north ahead of an approaching storm system from the Rockies.

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FRIDAY MORNING: Ok, here we go. The cold front that came south on Thursday will stall from central Kansas to southern Missouri, becoming a warm front. This should be the set up for an active warm front which means widespread rain and a few thunderstorms across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Snow is possible in Nebraska with temperatures in the 20s.

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FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: A surface low will be located in Kansas with a warm front extending east and southeast from the low creating a huge temperature contrast. Highs will be in the 70s south of the front with 30s/40s to the north. 20s will be found in Nebraska along with the potential for a snowstorm. Is there a chance of severe weather near the low and warm front? The dew points will not be high enough, but it is something to watch.

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Now, this does look like exciting weather. The 12Z GFS even had snow in KC on Saturday. Remember, it is Tuesday and this storm is for Friday and Saturday. We know what has happened this season when we get closer to these systems, they trend towards duddery. So, let’s see how this looks the next day or two, but my goodness we are due for widespread precipitation and not every storm can be a nothing around here.

Have a great rest of the week.

Jeff Penner

2018-03-15T11:32:43+00:00March 13th, 2018|General|23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Richard March 13, 2018 at 4:46 pm - Reply

    Heard on radio that KS Governor has declared a drought emergency.

  2. Nick March 13, 2018 at 5:27 pm - Reply

    Can’t say how much is controlled burning on farms, but you can see the little “grass fires” on the shortwave IR on the goes 16 in eastern Kansas and west Missouri, looks like a simmering pot almost, I will say goes 16 is pretty neat. also does anybody have any thoughts on the “ICON” model( was recently added to tropical tidbits site)? seems like at first glance that it picks up on the lesser precip that ends up occuring from the storms that the GFS sees, but before the GFS catches on.

  3. Anonymous by choice March 13, 2018 at 6:05 pm - Reply

    No drought according to Mower Mike. He’s always right – just ask him.

    • Richard March 13, 2018 at 6:17 pm - Reply

      KS Governor declared drought emergency for the whole state, not just parts of the state.
      Grass fires were mentioned and water resources being low. Maybe the Aquifer ?
      Every county is considered dry. Only a few counties, eastern/northern are in the yellow, abnormally dry.
      Drought monitor

      Maybe it will change. Maybe it won’t. I think it will.

    • Richard March 13, 2018 at 6:58 pm - Reply

      Who is Mower Mike ?

      • REAL HUMEDUDE March 13, 2018 at 8:47 pm - Reply

        Mmike is Mower Mike

        Data looking good for widespread rain Thursday night!

        • Bobbie March 13, 2018 at 9:01 pm - Reply

          Does he deny drought or something? I keep seeing people mention his name and drought?

          • JoeK March 13, 2018 at 10:08 pm - Reply

            Bobbie,

            No, he doesn’t. He does make jokes about the same folks that predict a drought every single year, thus why some interpret his position as anti-drought.

    • JoeK March 13, 2018 at 10:05 pm - Reply

      Anonymous by choice, now I know why you picked that screen name. Look, if you are going to throw childish insults, make sure you have your facts straight. MMike has never stated we won’t be in a drought. He has stated that every year, the same folks come on here screaming drought before spring arrives. He has also stated that we may in fact end up in a drought, but too early to tell . The proof and facts are buried within the archives so take the time and read them. Now, I am growing more concerned about a drought , but am not convinced as of yet. Either way, for the KC area, I do not believe we will experience anything catastrophic as this LRC will give us enough moisture to prevent it.

  4. Roger March 14, 2018 at 3:15 am - Reply

    Drought is severe to extreme in south-central and southwest Kansas. There is no denying that fact! No surprise to me whatsoever about the drought emergency. Since July 1st, precipitation deficits are running 8-12 inches below normal. If these rains do occur for eastern Kansas / western Missouri (which will of course miss most of the worst drought areas in Kansas), that is very good news for you. There is tremendous worry and despair in my neck of the woods.

    • JoeK March 14, 2018 at 7:42 am - Reply

      Roger,

      For sure. Central and Western Kansas as well as North Texas, are in a bad way. I was referencing the KC area/Missouri regarding drought. Hoping for some kind of twist within this LRC for those areas however, doesn’t look promising through October.

    • Richard March 14, 2018 at 9:56 am - Reply

      “The order directs state agencies to combat drought conditions.
      It also opens up land in the federal Conservation Reserve Program for cattle grazing and temporarily lifts height and weight restrictions on trucks for easier shipping of hay into drought-stricken areas.”

    • Richard March 14, 2018 at 9:57 am - Reply

      Well thats good
      Thanks Stl

  5. Urbanity March 14, 2018 at 8:27 am - Reply

    GFS all over the place with QPF output, major poof potential for the next 10 days. That darn ridge centered over the Rockies is killing us here out west, plus the weather track is over northern KS, if that can shift south one state would make a world of difference. Hard to watch this pattern, no matter what appears could happen, or should happen, somehow it all goes poof even when things look right.

  6. REAL HUMEDUDE March 14, 2018 at 9:06 am - Reply

    Rip Stephen Hawking!
    You were an inspiration to the scientific community, and your contributions will be cherished. Fitting he died on Pie day, his final act of nerdom.
    Now, onto the next storm on Friday. Might still miss central and eastern KS, but should still provide immediate metro with a decent rainfall. Then follow up system on Monday has best chance of producing for central and esp northern KS. You guys just need to break the ice out there, it’s still early March and as cold as it’s been the moisture fetch still isn’t that great. Patience people, as we go through March the rains will move farther west. April and cycle #5 will be where everyone gets in on the rain. I’ve been through many Dry early Springs, worrying excessively only to get hammered in April and May. Best of luck

  7. Stl78(winon,mn) March 14, 2018 at 10:02 am - Reply

    Hard to believe hawkings lived with als for almost 60 yrs! Its a terrible debilitating disease that normally takes your life relatively quickly. At least the was my experience with it.

    • Snow Miser March 14, 2018 at 10:58 am - Reply

      I think he had a rare form of the disease which isn’t as debilitating. Anyway, RIP, he was a great inspiration in many ways!

  8. Nick March 14, 2018 at 11:12 am - Reply

    looking at the 12Z 3km nam just now and I am seeing a very familiar trend, well at least for today I can watch the temps go from 18F ( the official low in St. Joe) to see just how high they go on brown dry ground, and a southwest wind blowing from areas that have even drier conditions.

  9. Richard March 14, 2018 at 11:38 am - Reply

    BOB !
    Look up at at 6:48 a.m.
    We have a spammer in here ! How did that get through

    • Richard March 14, 2018 at 11:40 am - Reply

      Wow. Now it is gone.
      I should have copied it. Anyone else see it ?

      • Rockdoc March 14, 2018 at 2:24 pm - Reply

        Maybe it was deleted by Bob, the IT Tech guru.

        Unbelievable weather going on for sure. The huge high pressure system over Greenland, the blocker causing the NAO to go negative, is also helping to create the huge trough to the east. This results in favorable conditions for the Nor’easters. Another one looks to form next week Tue-Wed. Both Euro and GFS showing this, with slight difference in low pressure and snow amounts. My sister got about 14 inches in the latest storm. They are about 30 miles WSW of Worcester which received 20.8 inches. The town that got the most, ~27+ inches, is about 30 miles south of Worcester. She’s not happy about another one next week.

        In the mean time, enjoy today. Wow, so nice. Plus it looks like we have a nice rain event coming our way.

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