A Weekend Storm System To Track

/A Weekend Storm System To Track

A Weekend Storm System To Track

Good morning bloggers,

While the northeastern United States had yet another storm system to experience, Kansas City and surrounding areas continue to have frustration after frustration.  Well, this trend will likely continue for a while longer.  It has been a rather difficult ride for us weather enthusiasts that live near KC.  New York City had snow all day yesterday:  1.41″ liquid and 3.2″ of snow. Their snowfall total for the season is now at 27.0″.  And, yesterday, it never dropped below 33 degrees. It was above freezing all day and yet they had another storm system to remember.  Speaking of remembering, look at this forecast we made in front of our peers at the big AMS Conference:

Screen Shot 2018-03-05 at 11.50.50 PM

Not only did the storm return on President’s Day weekend, but they have now had three others that have been similar, and there will likely be one more before the spring versions of their storm systems return in the next LRC cycle.  Maybe, just maybe, next fall a pattern will set up to place Kansas City in a region that gets hit multiple times like this.  This  years pattern, according to our near peer reviewed Cycling Pattern Hypothesis, has not been kind to Kansas City, Wichita, Dodge City, Amarillo, and many other cities. Wichita, KS, right down I-35, is still sitting at 0.3″ of snow for the entire season.  This is an incredible stat, but even more impressive is Amarillo, TX who is not just sitting at zero snow for the season, but only 0.01″ since October 13th. An amazingly consistent pattern, which it should be, as the same pattern continues.

The potential weekend storm system


The models have widely varying solutions, and this storm is now just two days away. This fits this pattern as well. Around KC, it has been very difficult on the weather forecasters in trying to predict if just a tenth of an inch of rain, or melted down snow or ice may accumulate.  Predicting light precipitation events means that it could easily produce just a little less, and then almost nothing happens. Well, here we go again, look at that system over Nebraska, the circle, or upper low.


The GFS holds this system together as it spins past KC, leaving Amarillo, Wichita, and Dodge City in the dust once again, but KC? Well, KC is on the edge of having a rather interesting storm system:


By Sunday morning, as you can see in the blue shade, there is a band of snow moving into northern Missouri.  A strong surface cyclone is forecast to develop over the southern states, and there will be a severe weather risk:


Let’s see how the models trend today.  Have a great Thursday. I am traveling today, and will return on Friday.  The Kansas City Pet Telethon is Sunday on 38 the Spot from 6:30 to 9:30 PM. I am the host for the 18th time, then next week I am on vacation, Cancun. Has anyone ever been there? Any suggestions, or just relax. I am going to get away for a week.  But, today, I am in Raleigh/Durham North Carolina for a Weather2020 meeting.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.


2018-03-09T18:22:10+00:00 March 8th, 2018|General|32 Comments


  1. VERNON T. TAGGERT March 8, 2018 at 7:47 am - Reply

    Gary, have a good time, looks to me like a zero sum low, not much is going to happen.

  2. Snow Miser March 8, 2018 at 7:48 am - Reply

    My crocuses and other bulbs are starting to poke up out of the ground and they need a drink! Let’s hope we get something halfway decent over the weekend.

  3. DanT March 8, 2018 at 7:51 am - Reply

    Seasonal Difference Question? Is there seasonal differences with the storm systems in the Northeast? We look for anything in KC to get our hopes up, yet the North East Storms just hit and things like blocking and jet stream strength don’t seem to change anything for those States.

  4. Urbanity March 8, 2018 at 8:08 am - Reply

    Cancun during spring break? You’re brave.

  5. Three7s March 8, 2018 at 8:09 am - Reply

    At this point, I can’t wait for cycle 5. Bring on spring and thunderstorms! Tired of this cold weather and fantasy snows.

    • Lary Gezak March 8, 2018 at 8:40 am - Reply

      Agreed. 70s, windows open, and house-shaking thunder. Bring on severe weather season.

    • Steve March 8, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

      No shoot! IF we get any!

  6. Stl78(winon,mn) March 8, 2018 at 8:30 am - Reply

    Me too! 4 ° this morning. Next wk looks to warm up. Ice shanties are thinning. Im ready for Windows open and thunder boomers!

  7. Miss Jess March 8, 2018 at 8:51 am - Reply

    Next time you should try Cabo… one of my favorite places on earth. Go between January and April and you will see a ton of whales!

  8. Ryan March 8, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

    Is Gary hinting at the POTENTIAL (albeit unlikely) for a winter wx event?

    • Three7s March 8, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply


    • Heat Miser March 8, 2018 at 11:34 am - Reply


      • Ryan March 8, 2018 at 12:20 pm - Reply

        Heat Miser, were you replying yes to my original comment or Three7s comment?

  9. Richard March 8, 2018 at 10:09 am - Reply

    Watching the Weather Channel just now. Incredible variances of snowfall amounts.
    Central Park in NYC had only 3.2 inches, while just 16 miles to the west there was 23 inches !
    Talk about a difficult forecast.

    • Snow Miser March 8, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

      My father, who lives in Hamburg NJ, told me last night he got about 15 inches.

      • Weatherman March 8, 2018 at 11:11 am - Reply

        So did his wife 😂

        • Richard March 8, 2018 at 11:49 am - Reply

          Whats that wisecrack for

      • Richard March 8, 2018 at 11:51 am - Reply

        Pretty amazing amounts.
        I also heard about a lot of power outages due to the heavy wet snow.
        Actually glad it’s not here.

      • Richard March 8, 2018 at 11:52 am - Reply


        Pretty amazing amounts.
        I also heard about a lot of power outages due to the heavy wet snow.
        Actually glad it’s not here.

  10. Anonymous March 8, 2018 at 11:17 am - Reply


  11. REAL HUMEDUDE March 8, 2018 at 11:47 am - Reply

    Tahoe and Cancun inside of 2 weeks? Must be nice! I haven’t had a vacation in 6 years, I need to get out more!

    What is EURO saying about this weekend? NAM looks like a non-event, GFS looks like a nice storm and both have been consistent so which one is right?

    • Richard March 8, 2018 at 11:54 am - Reply

      Gary gets said one time he 6 wks a year vaca.
      It stuck with me because thats almost unheard of !

      • Richard March 8, 2018 at 11:56 am - Reply

        Well, that came out all jumbled. 😄 Took my eyes off screen for a nano-second while typing !
        But you get the drift

  12. Roger March 8, 2018 at 12:14 pm - Reply
    • KS Jones March 8, 2018 at 1:17 pm - Reply

      I see D4 (exceptional drought) has creeped into Kansas from Oklahoma, and a patch of northwest Oklahoma is drier than the Texas panhandle. The Oklahoma, Texas and Missouri maps certainly show how storm systems have been tracking. Our area here is just barely in the abnormally dry category. We picked up 0.1″ of drizzle during the night of Feb 28-Mar 1, and got immeasurable snow flurries a few days ago, but other than that, nothing so far this month.

    • Richard March 8, 2018 at 2:15 pm - Reply

      Not good. Not good at all

      • Roger March 8, 2018 at 2:24 pm - Reply

        This is just a microcosm of how significant droughts have been on the High Plains since 2006. The drought of 2012 extended into 2015 for almost all of the High Plains.

  13. Rod March 8, 2018 at 12:59 pm - Reply

    Fantasy system is back just a little different placement of the low pressure track around March 21-22. Could be snow or rain or both. Still hope for snow yet looking slim.


  14. Rod March 8, 2018 at 1:40 pm - Reply

    Things also per the GFS look more interesting for snow in KC on Sunday March 11th at forecast HR 78, shows some decent snow even near Columbia Hmmm…. Just maybe enough colder works in to bring some accumulation.


  15. Roger March 8, 2018 at 2:29 pm - Reply

    The winter wheat is already a total loss in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle. And spreading each week.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE March 8, 2018 at 3:10 pm - Reply

      I had no idea they planted much wheat or any row crop in those areas. Imo, it’s just too dry there on average to get a reliable crop unless you have heavily invested in irrigation. That’s Cattle country out there. I hope they get some rains to fill the ponds, the wheat might be too far gone but that’s why they have insurance. It’s bad situation there, I think they are in for long haul drought in the panhandles of TX / OK

  16. Urbanity March 8, 2018 at 3:04 pm - Reply

    I think the drought monitor is underrating some parts of central/western Kansas.

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