The Reason Why The Northeast Is Being Targeted Again

/The Reason Why The Northeast Is Being Targeted Again

The Reason Why The Northeast Is Being Targeted Again

Good morning bloggers,

Another storm is targeting the northeast.  Why is New York City getting targeted again, while Amarillo, TX is still sitting at 0.01″ of precipitation since October 13th?  The LRC provides the answer, the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis is finally peer reviewed, and here is the link to the paper out now, and in the Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting:  Link To The Peer Reviewed Paper

I presented the hypothesis at the American Meteorological Society conference in Austin, TX in January and showed this bold forecast that has already verified:

A storm hit on President’s Day weekend, and it will have hit two to four more times as well. How would you rate this forecast? I would give it an A+.  And, the new hypothesis is hardly new to many of you reading this blog, as we know it provides the answer to why Kansas City continues to get missed. We have not even forecasted any big storm systems for KC, why? Because this pattern just hasn’t supported it, yes the cycling pattern continues. Now, there is more hope of spring rains than snow for the KC region even though our chances of snow are far from over. There is even a chance today.  Take a look at the overnight European Model valid at 6 PM this evening:

This map above shows the snow showers near KC Tuesday afternoon and evening, but look at what happens to this storm as it moves east.

Forecast valid 7 PM eastern time Wednesday:

That is a 989 mb, 29.20″ surface low, which is weaker than a few of the bigger storm systems this season, but still quite strong, and enough to produce some very heavy snow. The forecast is still quite tricky for New York City and Boston, Philadelphia and more of the big cities.  The rain/snow line will be near the coast

How does this fit the cycling pattern? Just look at the pattern in January, around 47 to 48 days before this storm, and you will see a strikingly similar pattern, as we have showcased since October in this blog dozens of times.

So, what is next? Will Amarillo ever break their dry spell? How about Dodge City, KS; will they get more than their 1″ of snow they have had all season? Will Kansas City suddenly get wet when spring begins like last year?  We will see how the spring version of this pattern produces. As Gary England said years ago, “Lezak, well he called me Lowzack for fun, I saw it….It’s the same, but different”.  Gary saw the pattern when a storm was about to hit OKC and I tried to explain that it would hit them for sure, and it did. It is a big puzzle, and we are cracking the code.  We will get the same pattern this spring, but there will be seasonal differences.

Also in the paper, click on the link at the beginning of this blog, is the answer for why El Niño and La Niña forecasts failed the previous two winters, and how knowledge of the cycling pattern provided the answer to make a more accurate forecast of the ending of the western drought last winter. Let us know if you have any questions.

Thank you for participating in this blog experience featuring the LRC, and for spending a few minutes of your day reading this entry. Have a great Tuesday.  There may be a few snowflakes, and this is quite a difference from a year ago when we had a significant severe weather outbreak with 11 tornadoes near KC, including an EF-3 over Oak Grove, MO, and and EF-2 in Smithville.

Gary

2018-03-08T19:40:14+00:00 March 6th, 2018|General|54 Comments

54 Comments

  1. Alex Pickman March 6, 2018 at 3:33 am - Reply

    Quite a difference indeed. One of my good friends just finished rebuilding a beautiful home after his previous home was destroyed by the Smithville tornado. He lives on the east side of the lake. The initial rating of the damage his home took was a high end EF-2, but that got upgraded to a low end EF-3. He was lucky to be alive as his home to a direct hit, and the only thing that saved his life was his large gun cabinet fell over top of him and shielded him from debris. I’ll see if I can link some pictures of the damage. Went and visited him a few weeks ago, and his new home is beautiful. He also built a concrete enclosed safe room rated up to a low end EF5 tornado. That was the second tornado to affect his property since he’s lived there. He said if there is another one, he’s gone lol

    • REAL HUMEDUDE March 6, 2018 at 6:44 am - Reply

      Dang bro, hes.licky the gun cabinet didn’t kill him, those can be super heavy. He has had 2, yet somehow my little valley in Vernon Co. hasn’t had one that anybody alive can remember. My grandma remembered a small one that hit when she was little, we are talking 80+ years ago but nothing since. Really hope I can keep that streak going!
      The last 2 GFS runs showcase a storng, functional storm developing over the weekend targeting south of the metro, but some rain well to the West but not sure how far west appreciable rain will go. Anybody have a EURO link they can post? I am curious if Euro is on board too? I have Alot of work to do this weekend, I need to get this storm figured out so I Can plan

      • Gary March 6, 2018 at 6:53 am - Reply

        This weekends storm is the one we have been tracking for months now to arrive this weekend. The models are doing what they almost always do. The trend into a storm is fitting the pattern just like we have been showing with these eastern storm systems. This one, this weekend is directly related to the October 21st-22nd storm system and that one produced in KC. This trend will likely continue. The scary thing about all of these systems is that they all miss Amarillo. They all miss Dodge City. Kansas City is still likely to be on the edge.

        Gary

      • Troy Newman March 6, 2018 at 10:52 am - Reply

        That’s amazing there hasn’t been a tornado there in that long. I can’t remember a year when we haven’t had at least one here although I am sure there has probably been one. I have seen 3 in the last 2 years from my front porch. All of them F0 or F1. While small tornadoes are very common big tornadoes are rare here as I don’t believe this county has ever recorded an F4.

        • REAL HUMEDUDE March 6, 2018 at 2:57 pm - Reply

          We had one that was barely visible from the farm about 5 years ago, but it impacted an area about 6-7 miles away with F-2 damage to trees, it came close to Pleasanton and had a chopper on it filming live. That’s closest one we have had in a long time luckily, I am yet to witness one personally and I really want to see one

  2. Gretchen Kunkel March 6, 2018 at 6:25 am - Reply

    Did anyone see the Sony World Photography Awards? The first photo shown was amazing. It was taken in Bolton, KS, and it is titled, “Mammatus.” It is located here: “https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/photo/2018/03/the-2018-sony-world-photography-awa/s01_Dobrowner/main_1200.jpg?1520278519”

  3. Lary Gezak March 6, 2018 at 7:29 am - Reply

    Any good rain or storms soon? It’s about time we get something. Saturday doesn’t look like much, but sooner or later we have to kick start severe weather season.

  4. Three7s March 6, 2018 at 7:49 am - Reply

    It’s true that the northeast got what you predicted you would get, but you also predicted average snowfall in our area, which, obviously, didn’t pan out as we’re going to break yet another record for snow futility, as I predicted way back in November, while many others were saying “it’s early”, or “October was active and no western ridge then!”. I understand that it’s extremely hard to predict snowfall totals, which is why there shouldn’t even be such a prediction. There is absolutely no way to predict snowfall in this area because there is such a narrow window to which we can or can’t get hit.

    If you asked me to predict snow, I would bet on 5-15 inches every year. More than that, and you’re grasping at straws.

    • Gary March 6, 2018 at 8:12 am - Reply

      So you are saying I am not perfectly accurate. Well, I will continue to work harder. The number of snows that we had should have translated to the forecast I made. We now know that there has been and continues to be a huge problem in our area. I just didn’t realize how difficult it was going to be, but the point is, at the conference I did not predict KC to get the storm systems. I predicted them over the northeast. Maybe next year we can be a target. I would say we are due, but we continue to learn.

      Gary

      • Three7s March 6, 2018 at 8:17 am - Reply

        Trust me, I respect what you do and I know how challenging predicting weather can be, and I assumed that you were targeting the northeast and not us with that forecast. I just don’t like how meteorologists in general feel the need to give a snowfall prediction when there’s really no way to in my opinion.

        • Gary March 6, 2018 at 8:38 am - Reply

          That’s why I went 13″ low to 31″ high. I didn’t realize I was supposed to go 5″ low again this year. This may have been the most frustrating winter yet, but I did get my fill of snow in Tahoe. I will disagree, however, as it is just fine to make a forecast for the season, but I think your point may be to just pick one number. That is a bit ridiculous.

          Right now, you should see the disturbance spinning like a top over Des Moines. It is that close to being so exciting here. There are some snowflakes around the city right now. Let’s monitor for a band that may be a bit more organized later in the day.

          Gary

          • Heat Miser March 6, 2018 at 8:58 am - Reply

            Seems to me it might be a bit wiser to predict, instead of actual snow amounts for a season, below average, average, above average, and possibly a way above average category. Then we don’t have to fixate on specific amounts which are nearly impossible to predict anyway, but we do have a way to measure some degree of accuracy in the seasonal snowfall forecast.

  5. Michael Casteel March 6, 2018 at 7:52 am - Reply

    Gary,
    I sent you a pic of our snow this morning. Are you still getting the pictures I send you? I know you are extremely busy but as a fellow weather enthusiast I am hoping you get them. Anyway are grass is white up here in Maryville. Wind was howling all night too! Have a great day bloggers,
    Michael

    • Gary March 6, 2018 at 8:10 am - Reply

      Yes, Michael I am getting them. Thank you!!!

      Gary

      • Michael Casteel March 6, 2018 at 9:02 am - Reply

        thanks sir!

  6. Snow Miser March 6, 2018 at 8:28 am - Reply

    Getting a few light flurries in downtown Independence!

  7. Joey March 6, 2018 at 9:05 am - Reply

    Snowing in Manhattan at the moment. Yeah!

  8. Richard March 6, 2018 at 9:10 am - Reply

    Gary
    I don’t see a link, above in your write up, for the peer reviewed paper.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE March 6, 2018 at 9:16 am - Reply

      It’s on his FB page, check it out there of you can

      • Richard March 6, 2018 at 9:20 am - Reply

        Thanks Hume

        I went back up here in the write up and clicked on the words “Link to the peer reviewed paper”
        It takes you to it. His words are the link.

  9. Stl78(winon,mn) March 6, 2018 at 9:31 am - Reply

    We had white out conditions with about 7 in of snow. Off and on snow showers this morning. Im definitely done with snow but this was an impressive storm to witness. Il try and post a pic as my gravatar of my drive yesterday afternoon.

    • Richard March 6, 2018 at 10:27 am - Reply

      We are getting the terrible wind from the wrap around.
      I saw a couple of dogs and cats flying down the street.

      Glad tou’re ok Stl !

  10. Weatherby Tom March 6, 2018 at 9:34 am - Reply

    Nice snowburst here, deck starting to get white

  11. mark meyer March 6, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

    I took a look at Ks climate division 7-which is Dodge City/SW KS. Nov-Feb was one of the driest ever periods-as we know. But looking at the 15 driest Nov-Feb and then rainfall in Mar-May only 1 yr was in the top 20 driest. In fact 7 of the 15 yrs had over 7.40 inches during MAM. Only 6 were below avg (5.73 avg) during MAM. So history suggests the dry areas could become wet the next 90 days.

    This is similar to last yr when someone posted about how dry KC was and I looked at those yrs and most turned wet-just as last yr ended up turning wet.

  12. Mike Holm March 6, 2018 at 9:55 am - Reply

    Just read your submission—congrats! I consider the CPH the frame of a structure. Still needs plumbing, wiring, insulation etc. But, with the framework in place we know where everything else is going to be. If there were someway to add the CPH to make them models more accurate could be the best use.
    How did you discover the works of Jerome Namais? Did they have 500 mb charts back in his era?
    Very well written and convincing. Congrats again.So what next?

    • LYITC41 March 6, 2018 at 10:43 am - Reply

      The 500mb chart came into daily use May 14, 1954 according to the Nov.-Dec. 2016 issue of Weatherwise magazine.

    • Gary March 6, 2018 at 11:06 am - Reply

      Dr. Fred Carr, the recent President of the American Meteorological Society, and my Freshman Meteorology professor, then my Synoptic Meteorology professor, introduced me to the Index Cycle paper from Namais in the 1940s. I read thoroughly through his works, and I think computer technology took him gradually in a direction that didn’t allow him to focus on the “art” of meteorology. But, he was close to having the LRC 70 years ago. I discussed this with Dr. Carr 12 years ago, and he is what inspired the beginning of finding the cycles within the 500 mb heights, since I showed him the pattern comparisons in those charts.

      Gary

  13. terry March 6, 2018 at 10:08 am - Reply

    Right now in WY running into some snow squalls on I70 almost white Out conditions

  14. terry March 6, 2018 at 10:10 am - Reply

    Wow very hard to see now

  15. Mandy March 6, 2018 at 10:31 am - Reply

    With the wind and the flurries, it’s looking like a straight up blizzard outside my office window here in Raytown. Nothing sticking, just a lot of blowing flurries!

  16. Troy Newman March 6, 2018 at 10:54 am - Reply

    Been snowing off and on here all morning, some times coming down pretty good. Ground is too warm for it to stick.

  17. Lary Gezak March 6, 2018 at 11:42 am - Reply

    A blizzard warning has been issued for the KC Metro area

  18. NoBeachHere March 6, 2018 at 12:36 pm - Reply

    I remember watching the radar loop many times from the 09’-10’ winter. It was fascinating to watch those storms come out of the SW , grow and then like run into a wall and just kind of spin and drift around.
    This storm reminds me a lot of those loops.
    Gary, the way this storm is acting, more or less slow drift or stalling, is that what blocking will do storm systems?

  19. Rod March 6, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

    Light snow falling in Ashland & wife says it’s coming down at a pretty steady pace in Columbia. Too bad surface temperatures are in the upper 30’s & it’s wind driven snow showers.

    Rod, Ashland, MO

  20. f00dl3 March 6, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

    This is the closest we have been to a Blizzard Warning in the past 4 years.

    • Gary March 6, 2018 at 1:00 pm - Reply

      LOL

  21. Ryan March 6, 2018 at 1:27 pm - Reply

    Flurry Blizzard to report in Southeast Leawood

  22. LYITC41 March 6, 2018 at 2:07 pm - Reply

    Interesting clouds, almost look like low topped TCU, from here in midtown the vsby’s been going up and down all day, sometimes you can see the downtown skyline, sometimes not, no accum. here though.

  23. Dennis March 6, 2018 at 2:09 pm - Reply

    Wow heavy snow shower in St Joseph at this time with the the wind looks like a blizzard.

  24. Roger March 6, 2018 at 2:45 pm - Reply

    Dust Storm Warning has been in affect in NW Kansas. Winds have busted to 60 mph as far south as Medicine Lodge and Wichita.

    • Roger March 6, 2018 at 2:46 pm - Reply

      Gusted. Darn auto correct.

  25. Nick March 6, 2018 at 2:48 pm - Reply

    lots of wind with some “mini” blizzards here in St. Joe, wild march weather for sure, looks like I 70 in West Kansas has been closed for a time due to a dust storm, and there are dust storm warnings out that way, sounds nasty.

  26. MattinLeavenworth March 6, 2018 at 3:17 pm - Reply

    Man it is really coming down up here in leavenworth. One direction the sky is blue but right above me very gray. Snow waves blowing all over the road.

  27. Rod March 6, 2018 at 6:27 pm - Reply

    Just had a very exciting & nervous experience all the same time on my evening commute home. I left work in Jefferson City at 5 PM to no snow on the ground and just a few light snow showers then just a few miles north of Jefferson City on US Highway 63 ran into a blinding wall of snow & visibility was down to 100-150 yards in heavy snow and graupel pounding my windshield heading north straight into strong winds. It was snowing so hard even though the air temperature were in the mid to upper 30s snow was sticking to highway 63 and the bridges were completely white. There was a near accident in front of me and a lot of people slowing down & braking due to the severely reduced visibility. Got back into Ashland & the city streets especially in the subdivisions were slush/snow covered and I measured between 4/10 and 5/10 of an inch of snow at my house. While at work today in Jefferson City on at least five or six occasions a moderate to heavy snow squall would move in last maybe 5-10 minutes then a peak of sun would come out and then 30 minutes later or less another snow squall would come in & the sun would come out very briefly or I’d see a patch of blue sky. When I was taking snow measurements in my backyard a majority of the snow was graupel or snow grains and was very wet. Even though this was a minor event and not the 3 inch snow we’re looking for it was still very exciting, doesn’t take much this winter for us no lovers to smile. I just wanted to share this with Gary & all the bloggers. Have a great evening!! Maybe this wasn’t our last accumulating snow.

    Rod, Ashland, MO

    • Richard March 6, 2018 at 6:50 pm - Reply

      Rod
      Thanks for sharing ! Glad you made it home safely.

      I like Jeff City. Took train ride there One time years ago. Beautiful area.
      The Capitol and grounds real nice. The train landing. Quaint.
      A lot of history to see within walking distance.

      Anyway, crazy weather day ! Pretty much the same here in Olathe as you experienced, except it never got heavy enough to cover the ground. But graupel, then sun, then back to graupel/snow.

      • Rod March 6, 2018 at 8:03 pm - Reply

        Snow just keeps falling in southern Boone County. Can barely see the grass, took another measurement & now up to 3/4” & close to 1” in a few spots.

  28. KS Jones March 6, 2018 at 8:06 pm - Reply

    A bit too windy for this activity.
    https://www.seattletimes.com/life/travel/from-pterodactyls-to-flying-fighters-kites-are-more-fun-than-ever/
    Kites that fight
    In some parts of the world, especially the Middle East and India, kite fighting is a popular pastime, and the tradition has arrived on our shores.
    During kite-fighting competitions, fliers use small square-shaped kites guided with a tugging motion on the string. The point is to dive bomb other kites in sudden attacks.
    If you do it right, your line will slash your competitor’s line, sending their kite skittering to the ground.
    Years ago, kite strings were glued with crushed glass to make it easier to cut down a competitor, says Williams. But now the lines are sinister enough to do the cutting on their own.
    Fighter kites can be seen in action at the annual Washington State International Kite Festival at Long Beach, Pacific County. 

    • REAL HUMEDUDE March 6, 2018 at 8:54 pm - Reply

      A number of people have been killed in India with that string you mention, sharp enough to slash your throat wide open apparently as it’s happened a number of times there. Apparently they love their kites over there and it’s gotten quote serious as far as kites go

      • KS Jones March 6, 2018 at 11:24 pm - Reply

        Yep, it would be a good idea to observe from a long distance.
        https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/08/17/two-children-one-man-killed-as-glass-laced-kite-strings-slit-throats-in-delhi/?utm_term=.60bf6f35d046
        Two children, one man killed as glass-laced kite strings slit throats in Delhi
        August 17, 2016
        In recent years, though, some have taken kite-fighting to a dangerous extreme. Shops that sell kites began stocking glass-laced kite strings to make it easier to cut others’ strings. On Monday, three people’s throats were unintentionally slit by that kind of string . . . Two of the victims were children, ages 3 and 4. . . a girl and a boy. Both were in cars with their parents, sticking their heads out of the sunroofs . .a 22-year-old who was riding his motorcycle on an overpass died in a similar way.

  29. Rod March 7, 2018 at 5:32 am - Reply

    Look at what the GFS shows around March 21st. Eye candy!! Monster winter storm then we all get in on the wrap around snow as the low goes by. Probably fantasy!! Lol

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

  30. f00dl3 March 7, 2018 at 7:54 am - Reply

    Gary, I hear Stormy is suing Trump.

    Wait – different Stormy. Not the weather dog.

    If you looked back 47 days ago, this was the biggest Stormy in the LRC.

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