The Most Tame Part of the Storm, Again

/The Most Tame Part of the Storm, Again

The Most Tame Part of the Storm, Again

Good Sunday bloggers,

Well, here we go again. We have a storm system tracking into the Plains and eastern Kansas/western Missouri will be in the most tame part of the storm. A blizzard will occur in the northern Plains, high winds will occur in the central Plains and the most rain and thunderstorms will occur east of the Mississippi river.

If you are an LRC doubter, it is hard to ignore the fact that our region ends up in the most tame part of these storm systems every time. The weather is doing what it is supposed to do based on this season’s cycling weather pattern. The one factor that could change this, is time. As we go into the warm season we shall see how this pattern acts. There is potential for this pattern to become more productive towards the middle and end of Spring.  We will have more on that in the coming weeks and months.

Let’s go through the details of this next storm system.

At this time there are a myriad of watches and warnings ranging from fire weather to wind to blizzard.

1

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: It will be windy and mostly cloudy with temperatures in the 50s. The best chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will be after 7-8 PM. A few showers may occur today from Clinton to Sedalia south and east.

2

MONDAY MORNING: There will be a chance of scattered showers until 9-10 AM. Otherwise, it will be windy and mild with temperatures rising to 55°-60°. So, roads for the morning rush hour will likely be damp to wet.

3

MONDAY AFTERNOON: It will be sunny and windy as we go in to the dry slot of the storm system. If there is dust picked up in western Kansas, then we may see that in our sky, making for a hazy sun.

4

While we deal with sun, wind and perhaps dust in the dry slot, the northern Plains will have a blizzard in the comma head of the storm system. Winds may gust to 65 mph!

5

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: The storm system will track east-southeast, basically going around our area. This will bring the colder air south with clouds and more wind. The snow will stay north and northeast. A flurry is possible in eastern Kansas and western Missouri, but no accumulation is expected. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s. It will be a blustery Tuesday and Wednesday.

6

SNOWFALL FORECAST: 6″ to 14:” of snow is likely from the Dakotas to Wisconsin. So, if you are travelling up I-35 or I-29 the next few days take note of the weather.

7

RAINFALL FORECAST: Rainfall amounts will be piddly across the region, mostly in the trace to .15″ range. There is a slight chance a few locations may see .25″. This is no change from the Saturday forecast and still not enough to even wash in lawn fertilizer.

8

The next storm system is due in at the end of the week and weekend. The GFS has a totally disorganized solution while the ECMWF has a functional powerful storm. Which do you think is correct?

Have a great week,

Jeff Penner

2018-03-05T06:35:00+00:00 March 4th, 2018|General|29 Comments

29 Comments

  1. Stl78(winon,mn) March 4, 2018 at 8:03 am - Reply

    The euro sure is a powerhouse as of now for kc. Looking to b around the 11th/12th time frame so i believe that fits the lrc as well! Plus its someone birthday, cant remember whos it was on here but i hope u get it! Up here we r lookin at 4 to 8 possibly higher but this would b our largest snow of the yr. Our biggest snow to date was around 5.5 i believe. Snow snow go away come again another day!!!

    • Rod March 4, 2018 at 12:39 pm - Reply

      It’s my birthday as well on March 12th. Would love a snow on or just before the 12th, still sitting at under 3” of snow in Boone County.

      Rod, Ashland, MO

  2. Val March 4, 2018 at 8:11 am - Reply

    It’s going to be my birthday and one other persons that I can’t remeber! That would be WONDERFUL! But I am trying to not get my hopes up. Sporting KC’s home opener is today so I would be thrilled with a win tonight and again next weekend when they play in Chicago!

  3. Stl78(winon,mn) March 4, 2018 at 8:27 am - Reply

    Well get luck to sporting kc and happy early bday! I hope kc gets 1 good old fashioned snow storm!

    • Val March 4, 2018 at 9:42 am - Reply

      Thank you!

  4. Garrett Osbourn March 4, 2018 at 9:46 am - Reply

    Anyone else kinda calling it a night on this winter? Lots of mildly trending temps

  5. Uncle Bill March 4, 2018 at 10:04 am - Reply

    How is it looking for tonight’s sporting home opener?

  6. Steve March 4, 2018 at 10:24 am - Reply

    North & South again! What was that old song with the lyrics “Stuck in the Middle Again.”

    • spaceotter March 4, 2018 at 11:11 am - Reply

      Stuck in the Middle with You by Stealers Wheel. ‘Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right … here I am, stuck in the middle with you.’

  7. Roger March 4, 2018 at 11:22 am - Reply

    When in drought, leave it out. GFS all the way baby!

  8. Lrcfan1 March 4, 2018 at 11:36 am - Reply

    Yep gfs is the winner this time, can’t wait for the new lrc in october this is boring!

  9. Roger March 4, 2018 at 11:51 am - Reply

    Catastrophic fire weather conditions!
    https://www.weather.gov/ict/weatherstory

  10. Rod March 4, 2018 at 12:42 pm - Reply

    Can anyone post a map showing the Euro snowstorm for the 11-12th. Thanks

    Rod, Ashland

    • SnowCommander March 4, 2018 at 1:50 pm - Reply

      Ok. Give me a minute

  11. Stl78(winon,mn) March 4, 2018 at 12:44 pm - Reply

    Happy early bday rod

    • Rod March 4, 2018 at 1:16 pm - Reply

      Thank you, still dreaming for just one good snow & hoping I don’t have to wait till next winter.

  12. Rockdoc March 4, 2018 at 12:45 pm - Reply

    EURO shows one heck of wrap-around snowstorm starting Saturday evening and lasting thur part of Sunday. GFS shows nada. The temperatures are not supportive of any significant snowfall sticking around. While both models show temps dropping below freezing Saturday night thru Sunday morning they both show a rebound by Sunday afternoon into the 40s. Therefore I’m calling this snowstorm suspect. If we do get any snow, it would most likely be the wet sticky snow.

    One last weather tidbit, although it’s still two weeks away and the models are not good that far out, St Patrick’s Day looks to be in the 60s and no rain. Hope this verifies! Have a Great Sunday everyone.

  13. Tdogg March 4, 2018 at 12:54 pm - Reply

    Biggest snow in March history! !

    • Rod March 4, 2018 at 1:17 pm - Reply

      Yes I 2nd that.

  14. Stl78(winon,mn) March 4, 2018 at 1:04 pm - Reply

    12z Euro backed off from previous run

  15. f00dl3 March 4, 2018 at 1:40 pm - Reply

    I can’t believe the NWS Wichita’s wording. Freaking isn’t even elevated fire risk per the SPC. Just wait 2 months.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html

  16. f00dl3 March 4, 2018 at 1:42 pm - Reply

    I guess Day 2 outlook for MON does have Crit fire weather area near Wichita but really Critical isn’t even that extreme – California has Extremely Critical many times.

    • Troy Newman March 4, 2018 at 7:00 pm - Reply

      Its just strange to call it catastrophic risk. All fires are catastrophic if you are in the path.

      • KS Jones March 4, 2018 at 9:37 pm - Reply

        The Drought Monitor shows it wasn’t nearly so dry at this time last year, but the prairie fires were devastating.
        February 28′ 1017 Drought Monitor map
        http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20170228/20170228_KS_date.png
        February 27′ 2018 Drought Monitor
        http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/20180227/20180227_KS_trd.jpg

        http://www.kansas.com/news/state/article137072263.html
        The Wichita Eagle
        March 07, 2017 
        Cattle lost in fires: ‘It’s horrible out there, the things I saw today’
        “It’s been dry lately, so you know if you get 60 miles-per-hour winds and anything ignites it, it’s going to burn fast. Still, we never dreamed it could all burn up that fast, but it did.”
        He spoke of a 22,000-acre ranch that was basically untouched at Monday’s sunset that was mostly ashes by Tuesday’s dawn. About any area that hadn’t burned Monday caught on fire Tuesday.

        • Gary March 4, 2018 at 9:57 pm - Reply

          Thanks for posting the comparison. That’s pretty striking. And, right now, just look at radar. Not much again. Perhaps we get a little rain from the front in the morning.

  17. Nate March 4, 2018 at 5:38 pm - Reply

    St Patrick’s day is the most annoying day of the year

  18. Stl78(winon,mn) March 4, 2018 at 5:56 pm - Reply

    Must be german..lol

  19. Rod March 4, 2018 at 8:08 pm - Reply

    Weekend system is something to closely watch, local weather Mets saying there could be a very significant temperature spread between Macon & Lake of the Ozarks depending on where frontal boundary sets up on Saturday. With the low pressure system forecasted to go south of the area along the AR/MO border or even further south & temperatures at night after we lose the March sun angle rain could change to snow Saturday night. In fact for central MO there is already a 50% chance of rain/snow for both Saturday night & Sunday. Would love to see some wet snow & make my birthday wish come true. If your on here Terry there is still hope!!

  20. Val March 5, 2018 at 9:26 am - Reply

    Rod, we are both wishing for a snowy birthday! Uncle Bill, Sporting KC BLEW IT. It seems as though they wanted to hop onto Winter’s wagon and ALSO BE A HUGE DISAPPOINTMENT. Burn.

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