Another Storm Moves By KC Quietly

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Good morning bloggers,

Well, I made my decision and I will be leaving tomorrow morning for Lake Tahoe. I will be snow chasing and staying at the Hyatt Regency Hotel on the north side of the Lake.  It looks like I could get all of Kansas City’s average seasonal snowfall of around 20″ where I am staying. I am expecting at least a foot, and two feet is possible.  I will report live on Facebook and Twitter.  A major winter storm is coming into the western United States, and a major winter storm is forming over the northeast targeting New York.  But, before these big storm systems form, Kansas City is almost in “no man’s land” as this system limps by our area.

1At the surface this storm is disorganized. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, what was an organized storm coming into California is now in the process of going through a major transition as ti begins forming into a storm northeast of Kansas City.  This surface map, on the left shows how disorganized the pattern is near our area. Remember, Amarillo is still sitting at 0.01″ liquid since October 13th with no snow this season, while Dodge City, KS has had around one inch of snow the entire season thus far. Wichita, KS is at 0.3″ for the season, and here in KC it has been quite frustrating as well with under 10″ of snow for the third consecutive year for the first time in KC recorded history. Now, we still have a good month of  severe weather season.

2By this evening the storm begins to get organized. In most winters, when a storm begins to get organized, other areas ahead of this cyclogenesis can get hit, but this has not been the case this winter.  The storm systems have intensified far to the north and northeast. There will be  a few rain showers as this system passes today and even a chance of a few snowflakes tonight, especially north of KC.

By Friday, two days from now, this storm is forecast to really intensify:

4

By 6 AM Saturday you can see the strong cyclone (Low pressure area) near Cape Cod, and you can see the strong storm at the surface approaching the Northern California coast. Kansas City is again in the middle with a surface ridge extending from northern Arkansas north to Hudson Bay in Canada.  A cold air mass will be expanding between these two coastal storm systems.

3

It reaches 70 degrees Tuesday and I won’t be surprised if it does it again in the next ten days, maybe this weekend.

Sierra Nevada Snowfall:

By 3 PM today, the Lake Tahoe area will be at zero snowfall, but look at what the forecast is from some of the models by Saturday morning:

1

2

So, off I am on an adventure tomorrow. I have one more day of my very long stretch at KSHB-TV tonight, and then I should be in the middle of  a snowstorm by Thursday afternoon as I drive into the Lake Tahoe basin.

Have a great day and thank you for the words of encouragement as I head out west tomorrow. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to continue our great discussion as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

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Richard
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Richard

Their getting nice rains south in Arkansas/TN
Gary said on air tonight he still has concerns about a Spring / summer drought.

He is all pumped up on air right now. “Best cloudiest day today in Kansas City history !”
Wow he is pumped. Excited. And we all know why ! 😄

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Not even a shower in the entire state of KS, yet models had multiple showers in area even late last night. Models are terrible right now, but HRRR short term is still nailing it. Once we get into convective setups , March -october, I am a HRRR nut. It’s about all you need to watch, I love that model and would be lost without it

Weatherman
Guest
Weatherman

It’s Severe Weather Season!!! Upper air pattern looks good for multiple severe chances over the next 2-3 week period.

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

I see Hastings NWS is even mentioning the possibility of severe clear up here on Sunday. I wonder if we will have an active Severe weather season? A lot of storms are tracking directly overhead which is bad for snow but might create some severe outbreaks once the moisture returns??

Anonymous by choice
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Anonymous by choice

There is 0% chance of a weather “event” in KC while Gary is gone, unless you are saying sunny and 60 is an event. Maybe – Maybe rain Sunday night.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Okay Gary, here’s what you do, in Vegas at 8:00 am, go put a $1,000 on red, if it fails, do it again on black, if it fails again then go to Craps table and lay $1,000 each on number 4 and 10, set your dice on snake eyes and drop them close to the rail. If that fails, there is one super safe fallback, recoup your money and a hair more at the sports book by placing $5,000 against K-State vs Baylor, you can pick up the profits on your way back. Maybe take the extra $1,000 you have… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

So true Keith! I’m a big KSU fan, Webber is a good guy but he is just short of a good coach. He gets great teams and allows them to be average at best, the first loss to KU this year is perfect example. Down By 1 point and KSU has the ball to end the game in regulation, only to have a terrible forced/contested 3 point shot miss? He didn’t have a play there for a decent look at a regular field goal and or wasn’t able to communicate to his guys that’s what needed to happen? I’ve watched… Read more »

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

That was a poor way to end a game and I was disgusted. Not with losing but with that being the play that we ended the game with. I don’t know if his coaching is so bad but (most of the time) but he doesn’t ever quite get enough talent to really put something together. IF we had a Center this year the team would look a lot different. Maybe if they let everyone go to the NBA out of HS again we will be able to compete.

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

Jeez. We can’t even get rain around here…

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

So why does the forecast on KSHB.com say “Drizzle this morning with Rain by afternoon” with Gerald’s pic on it, but yet your post here on the Weather2020 blog says the storm moves by quietly, and no model I saw has us in any steady rain at all from this storm – maybe drizzle but that’s it for the KC area. Is Gerald looking at the same stuff you are Gary?

choppy
Guest
choppy

It’s Gerard and he’s a loose cannon 🙂

Lainie Franklin
Guest
Lainie Franklin

Here is hoping the LLTI falls into play!

Jack
Guest
Jack

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018022812&fh=72

This storm looks awful like the storm in the third week of January… thoughts anyone?

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Hey, when Gary leaves town, we usually get some kind of weather event here….

=)

LSDoc
Guest
LSDoc

Mr. Pete, good point! Maybe we should start a “LOOT” (Lezak Out Of Town) index? LOL

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary you need that early flight. Spend tonight at the airport Hilton. Or is it Hyatt 😄
That wounds like a challenging drive to Tahoe no matter which route if it is already snowing.
But, hey, it will be a memory maker ror sure

Richard
Guest
Richard

* sounds, not wounds ! Lordy I hope there are no wounds !

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Keith – GFS is consistently modeling a decent rain for you in western and central Kansas on Monday. I dare say its your first decent signal for rain in your area I have seen yet this season. I have said for weeks now the rains will start moving further west towards you as get into March. Hope its the first of several out there.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Well I hope so. Its been a long time. It seems odd to me that the last 2 winter when Southern CA gets a storm that it doesn’t give us much of anything. That typically is a good sign for us.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Which model forecast were you looking at? The latest GFS doesn’t have much west of the Missouri State Line through March 16th? I don’t even think if we get 1 inch QPF between now and mid March that it is average. Doesn’t show very much for central and western Kansas unless I am looking at the wrong model?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

GFS is showing a decent storm for central KS on Momday. Not a drought buster, but a nice soaking 1/2″ or so, looks Alot more organized than this Non-storm we have right now. This was a bad miss for all local mets, Gary Amble was saying last night we would be hearing thunder over night…..WRONG!

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Hume, I appreciate your hope for us, but a developing low centered over north central KS creates a crap shoot for precip. As I see it now I would think Abilene, maybe Salina…just maybe Salina, and points east have a chance. Anything west of Salina, anything in windmill alley (just a geographical area I’m talking about not the windmills per say…no more windmill talk from me as people feel very strongly against a voice against the windmills) will only settle the dust for a few hours…gonna be light either way. I hope you’re right on the seasonal change, if we… Read more »

Rodney Chai
Guest

Have a great time snow chasing Gary! I have chased quite a few snowstorms over the years, but none more memorable than the Blizzard of 2016. I flew into Washington, D.C. moments before the airports and city closed and witnessed 2 feet of snow (along with a few thundersnow!) fall in 24 hours. Thankfully, it was over a weekend and I was able to get back just in time to teach at KU (I am a Meteorology graduate student and instructor). Epic stuff! I got to see people sled down Capitol Hill for the first time and the entire D.C.… Read more »

DanT
Guest
DanT

If you can, find a way to fill a cooler with snow and transport it back to KC. We would all like to see what more than 1” of snow looks like.

Richard
Guest
Richard

So Gary I am curious about the drive from Reno. Never having been to Reno or Tahoe. Whats the route. And is it possible roads will already be closing by the time you land in Reno ? …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY… * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 feet in the High Sierra above 7000 feet, with 1 to 3 feet of snow around the 6000 ft elevation, including Lake Tahoe. Up to a foot will be possible for lower elevations in northeastern California.… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Richard- I have only done that drive 2X, Gary has probably done it dozens of times but the drive from Tahoe eastward to Reno isn’t that bad as far as huge mountain passes. You are coming out of the maintains to more a valley where Reno is located, you are descending with improving driving conditions as you go. Might even be 4 lane highway if I recall correctly. But if you were to try to head west, BIG difference as you are rapidly Ascending huge mountains on small 2 lane highway, on a scary mountainside and definition of white knuckle… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary
Have fun !
Let us know when you will do the fb live.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Here are my February totals: I recorded ten snow/rain events. The total amount of precip including rain/sleet/ice/snow was 1.11″ liquid. 5″ of total snow. With the lowest rain was a trace on February 23rd and the most on February 22nd with .31″. The least snow event was on February 4th was a skiff, and February 7th with 21/2″ of snow. The biggest precipitation came in form of sleet/freezing rain. Hopefully March will bring a big SNOWSTORM!!!!!!
Michael

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Have a great trip Gary!

Good to see California finally getting some good precipitation, they really need it.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Incidentally, I was curious and decided to check some averages for Lake Tahoe:
https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/California/Places/south-lake-tahoe-snowfall-totals-snowstorm-averages.php
^ According to that, Lake Tahoe averages around 400 inches of snow a year. Latest NAM shows almost 70 inches of snow through late Saturday. So, the next 3-4 days should see the area around Lake Tahoe get almost 1/5th of Tahoe’s yearly average!

Dennis D
Guest
Dennis D

Have a blast out west Gary yip looks like a major storm even avalanche watch out.I check the forecast…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY…

* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5
feet in the High Sierra above 7000 feet, with 1 to 3 feet of
snow around the 6000 ft elevation, including Lake Tahoe. Up to a
foot will be possible for lower elevations in northeastern
California.

Rod
Guest
Rod

A storm has shown up on the models. Fantasy or will it come true. Look at the GFS around March 8th. Terry this is for you, still hope even though we’re running out of time & in an awful weather pattern. At least something is showing up.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

It’s better just to let him down easy.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Have a great time and be safe!

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

So jealous. Enjoy the adventure.