New Data Has Not Much! This Is How This Pattern Performs For KC!

/New Data Has Not Much! This Is How This Pattern Performs For KC!

New Data Has Not Much! This Is How This Pattern Performs For KC!

Good evening bloggers,

The new data is rolling in…..take a look:


This is the NAM model total precipitation ending at 9 AM Thursday. Look closely:  0.01″. Yes, almost nothing. So, this weather pattern may once again be about to make us meteorologists look “silly” to some.  Am I shocked? Just a bit, but not really. This is this year’s pattern, and this disturbance can be argued to have always been suspect.  Now, there still should be a light glazing at least. Let’s see how this really trends as there are radar echoes increasing as I am writing this.

I will be analyzing this closely and likely doing a Facebook Live around 9 PM.  If we see a trend towards more icing or sleet we will discuss overnight.


2018-02-22T08:45:44+00:00 February 21st, 2018|General|79 Comments


  1. Michel Casteel February 21, 2018 at 8:11 pm - Reply

    Your not going to be popular with the school teachers LOL my wife is one and they were hoping for a snow day tomorrow hope we get more snow than what you predicted have a good evening!

    • Gary February 21, 2018 at 8:15 pm - Reply

      Oh I know. This will not be good. I would like to see some trend on radar, and we should before I am on at 10 PM. We will take the heat tomorrow, unless even a small version comes together. But, my goodness, this second system has been a bit suspect. But, to produce nothing will be a bit surprising, so again, let’s see if there is a trend on radar soon.


      • Richard February 21, 2018 at 8:26 pm - Reply

        On the last blog a few min ago you say “This pattern stinks. Seriously, it is so bad.”

        Really ? I say this pattern is ok if this thing tonight blows through and misses us.

        • Heat MIser February 21, 2018 at 9:01 pm - Reply

          It stinks for those who want moisture and for those who want to track interesting winter weather.

    • Heat MIser February 21, 2018 at 8:28 pm - Reply

      Didn’t they just get a snow day yesterday? Tell them not to be greedy.

      • Richard February 21, 2018 at 8:36 pm - Reply

        Olathe was out yesterday, and today too. Due to roads. Its silly
        Funny, because KCKS was in session. But not KCMO.
        Olathe does not have near the number of hilly roads as KCKS

      • Michel Casteel February 21, 2018 at 8:53 pm - Reply

        Lol! They never get enough days! I love watching my wife and her friends get all riled up when snow cones are way!

  2. Weatherfreaker February 21, 2018 at 8:18 pm - Reply

    I thought models were not very reliable right before an event starts?

    • JoeK February 21, 2018 at 9:00 pm - Reply

      generally speaking, I have lost trust in them this year , but they can be right so if that’s the case, I will have crow for breakfast.

  3. Georgie February 21, 2018 at 8:20 pm - Reply

    It’s starting to sleet in Lansing! Looks like echos are filling in just to our southwest.

  4. Richard February 21, 2018 at 8:22 pm - Reply

    NWS on facebook 30 min ago
    “Latest thoughts for overnight winter event. While this is only one model, these trends fit with our latest line of thinking. Latest guidance suggests biggest icing impact north of the MO River. Prepare for slippery roads Thurs AM, especially in the Northland.”

  5. Fred February 21, 2018 at 8:22 pm - Reply

    Your line of thinking is a bit different than other outlets, especially those supported by the government.

    It will be interesting to see…

    But, I don’t know how a system can change so much in a model run…it’s been consistent over the past 24-36 hours and then all of sudden it changes? Doesn’t sound like a problem with the pattern, rather with the technology.

  6. Justin February 21, 2018 at 8:25 pm - Reply

    Models are garbage this close to an event, correct?

  7. f00dl3 February 21, 2018 at 8:28 pm - Reply

    This thing is forming right now. Forget the models. Look at radar.

  8. Heat MIser February 21, 2018 at 8:29 pm - Reply

    Mother nature teaches us once again that try as we might, we can’t really predict winter storms here with any regular degree of accuracy…we don’t have the ability.

  9. Richard February 21, 2018 at 8:32 pm - Reply

    If it has been a bit suspect (in your gut?) you didn’t relay that to us. Or maybe I missed it if you ever said it was suspect.

    But It’s ok if this thing does not pan out. We do not need more ice. I am sure nobody will be mad if we don’t get it.

  10. Lary Gezak February 21, 2018 at 8:33 pm - Reply

    Don’t trust the GFS or the NAM. We should all know this. Watch the radar. The NWS thinks it will still be pretty significant storm overnight

    • Richard February 21, 2018 at 8:38 pm - Reply

      I just commented above, what NWS said on facebook 30 min ago.
      They say now most icing will be north of the river

  11. Matt February 21, 2018 at 8:35 pm - Reply

    Hi Gary,

    I am/was planning on driving to KC from Denver tomorrow. Probably would get on the road by 8-9am CT. Should I scratch this plan or do you think it may not be so bad? Looks ok until Wakeeny or Hays. Planning on driving back Sunday.


  12. Joe February 21, 2018 at 8:41 pm - Reply

    Wishcasting…another bust for KC

  13. MTkyCATS February 21, 2018 at 8:41 pm - Reply

    Light rain has started near Water Works Park in the Northland.

  14. Richard February 21, 2018 at 8:42 pm - Reply

    We might have something coming March 6-12 right ? joeK ?

    On another note, I am thinking way ahead to mid April. Maybe strong T-storms when this comes back ?

    • JoeK February 21, 2018 at 9:07 pm - Reply


      Yes, if I am interpreting the LRC correctly, I had the 6th through the 12th circled for possibly 2 systems. I believe one of them has the potential to be more significant. Cold front timing will be critical. If it mirrors what happened in October, it will start out as rain and when the cold front comes through, transition to frozen precipitation. The October version dropped by almost 10 degrees and although we didn’t receive frozen precip., the cold front should be stronger in this cycle. This is why I stated in January I was concerned with the potential of ice storm set-ups in this cycle.

  15. Remembercody February 21, 2018 at 8:46 pm - Reply

    Intellicast future radar shows freezing rain blowing up over the metro around midnight to 2am.

  16. Mr. Pete February 21, 2018 at 8:47 pm - Reply

    The radar for now looks like a total bust for precipitation. At least for KC area.

  17. Laurie February 21, 2018 at 8:49 pm - Reply

    They already called my kids school for tomorrow too ugh.

  18. Phillip February 21, 2018 at 8:50 pm - Reply

    Radar isn’t looking too impressive. Not sure if it’s going to fill in honestly. Not much going on in Oklahoma

  19. Josh February 21, 2018 at 8:51 pm - Reply

    I don’t need models look at the radar we will get a brief shower that’s it!

  20. f00dl3 February 21, 2018 at 8:56 pm - Reply

    Yeah this thing is a bust.

    • Fred February 21, 2018 at 9:01 pm - Reply

      LOL. I like your sarcasm. 🙂

  21. Ryan February 21, 2018 at 8:57 pm - Reply

    Very light drizzle falling in south OP (133rd and Nall)

  22. Richard February 21, 2018 at 9:01 pm - Reply

    MT says it is weakening. Dry air being pulled in.

  23. Kstater February 21, 2018 at 9:05 pm - Reply

    Rap and Hrr still don’t look bad. It’s probably not going to be as bad as thought but this probably won’t be a non event like many on here are thinking. Everyone on this blog is guilty of jumping to judgement both ways way too quickly.

  24. Terry February 21, 2018 at 9:13 pm - Reply

    Some rain is Starting to fall in Wy county Ks some now.

  25. Lary Gezak February 21, 2018 at 9:16 pm - Reply

    Gary is catching a case of modelitis here. Will be travel concerns in the AM obviously. One model can’t throw off everybody’s mind here. Be patient and let’s just see what is actually happening.

    • Kstater February 21, 2018 at 9:19 pm - Reply


    • Gary February 21, 2018 at 9:35 pm - Reply

      It is an easy disease to catch. I need more evidence on radar. Here is one for modelitis: The GFS just came in wet with .25″ in the metro area by morning. That would be .10″ of ice accumulation. Now, I am still predicting around 0.10″ of ice. I need a bit more evidence on radar.


      • Richard February 21, 2018 at 9:45 pm - Reply

        .25 ?? Isn’t the gfs the one we don’t trust this winter ?

  26. Phillip February 21, 2018 at 9:20 pm - Reply

    Not jumping on anything other than the fact that the radar is not looking impressive for development here. Could change, but in my opinion there doesn’t seem to be much moisture to work with down in Ok.

  27. Mark February 21, 2018 at 9:35 pm - Reply

    Looks like everything is going north of downtown so far per the radar, good news for those of us on the south side, bummer for those up by St. Joseph and Leavenworth. Way too early, I think we will all know a lot more come the morning.

    Go away ice! Let people go to work and school in the morning in peace!

  28. WeathermanDoug February 21, 2018 at 9:43 pm - Reply

    Unless we start to see some radar echoes down around Coffeyville, KS then I think the majority of the metro will be missed!

  29. Richard February 21, 2018 at 9:46 pm - Reply

    Question….since we can’t trust models more than 3 days out, and now some say we can’t trust them this close to an event, when CAN we trust them ?

    • Richard February 21, 2018 at 9:47 pm - Reply

      Ok, I think I know the answer. We can trust models when they agree with the LRC.

  30. Fred February 21, 2018 at 9:52 pm - Reply

    Richard. Take a deep breath.

    • JoeK February 21, 2018 at 9:53 pm - Reply

      😀 that was actually a fair question……I am baffled by the models this year

  31. JoeK February 21, 2018 at 9:52 pm - Reply


    In my humble opinion, there is a skill in interpreting the models correctly and even seasoned meteorologists struggle at times. With that said, the models have been especially horrible this year identifying the dynamics of these systems ( in our area) and show glimpses of accuracy and then lose a handle on them. So to answer your question, looking at trends and agreements between models seems to be the most beneficial. Lets evaluate this system, they have been trending favorable for the KC area until this afternoon, now they are shifting back and forth. We will be able to evaluate their accuracy tomorrow.

    • Richard February 21, 2018 at 10:04 pm - Reply

      Thx joe
      Appreciate your take on these things.
      Hitting the sack now !
      Just hope I don’t wake up w/o power and .25″ of ice. My street is notorious for power outages in ice storms.
      Well at least my car is covered, no scraping tomorrow ! 😁

  32. Anonymous February 21, 2018 at 9:52 pm - Reply

    Kansas governor just shut down Kansas due to impending storm…🤔🧐

  33. Chris Sholl February 21, 2018 at 9:56 pm - Reply

    Kansas governor just closed the capital due to impending weather?🧐🤔

  34. Mr. Pete February 21, 2018 at 10:02 pm - Reply

    State of KS just closed all state offices for tomorrow due to the storm.

    • Richard February 21, 2018 at 10:06 pm - Reply

      Just Topeka, or statewide ?

      • Mr. Pete February 21, 2018 at 10:09 pm - Reply

        KSNT reports statewide.

        • Heat MIser February 21, 2018 at 10:13 pm - Reply

          I just read the KSNT website…it just says state offices for Shawnee County

      • Paul February 21, 2018 at 10:11 pm - Reply

        Just Shawnee county

    • Heat MIser February 21, 2018 at 10:10 pm - Reply

      Why would they do that if its not coming together…now I’m really confused.

  35. Fred February 21, 2018 at 10:05 pm - Reply

    I wasn’t trying to be rude to Richard. I just don’t want him to get too worked up and then have to apologize, again.

    I agree with your statement JoeK, as stated before…how can they all say the same thing for the past 24-36 hours and at the time of the event…start to waffle and be so inaccurate.

    It’s crazy.

    • JoeK February 21, 2018 at 10:18 pm - Reply


      You weren’t rude, I am sure he knew what you meant. Models!!! I know right! Our “super computers” are missing something. MMike made some very good points about how they catch on to a storm early on, but I have noticed they lose it as they get closer. I am starting to think there is a LRC within the models, meaning there is a pattern that is cycling within the models between accurate and inaccurate. LOL I am anxiously awaiting to see what happens tomorrow

  36. Kurt February 21, 2018 at 10:24 pm - Reply

    Sleet and freezing rain at a steady clip up here, covered the porch in minutes and doesn’t take much to get very slick already. Was hoping for snow first, amazing how quick it iced over again

  37. Remembercody February 21, 2018 at 10:24 pm - Reply

    Richard, Gary has a message for you at 14:45 in his recent FB live video he just did this past hour. 😂😂😂 jk jk

    Gary, you are seriously my most favourite weatherman of all time! I remember switching on the news here for the first time when I first moved here in 2010. I didn’t know which station to watch, but ended up picking 41 (obviously) and have been your biggest fan EVER!, ever since! You always make watching your weather segment on 41 so much fun, and through you, I have learned a lot and am still learning to this day, so much about the weather, so thank you for that, and for creating this blog for all us bloggers to learn, share, fight and a lot of times throw at you all of our shenanigans.

    Now, question, Gary, I’m sure you have been asked before or shared, but apologies for not absorbing the info. When you were a kid, who was your favourite weather person and from where? And who now, would you say, is your favourite weather person today (if you have one)?

  38. Ryan February 21, 2018 at 10:25 pm - Reply

    I missed Gary on KSHB at 10. Anyone care to recap?

  39. Heat MIser February 21, 2018 at 10:28 pm - Reply

    Seems chance of more, mabye even worse icing in a batch later tomorrow afternoon: KSNT – Due to safety concerns regarding the winter storm forecast for the state Wednesday evening and continuing through late Thursday afternoon Feb. 22, Governor Jeff Colyer has ordered the closing of state government, for non-essential state employees in Shawnee County.

  40. KristiH February 21, 2018 at 10:31 pm - Reply

    Misting here in Grain Valley even though nothing on radar…

  41. Weatherfreaker February 21, 2018 at 10:33 pm - Reply

    Kurt where are you?

    • Kurt February 21, 2018 at 10:40 pm - Reply

      About 1.5 miles south of St Joseph. Steady light freezing rain and sleet for about 45 minutes. Bet it’s a skating rink everywhere up here that’s getting this

  42. Dennis Smith February 21, 2018 at 10:36 pm - Reply

    Light shower right now lake Lotawana area

  43. Remembercody February 21, 2018 at 10:39 pm - Reply

    Radar babies showing up on radar southeast of metro.

  44. Heat MIser February 21, 2018 at 10:43 pm - Reply

    getting light freezing rain in Lawrence…windshield icing up

  45. KCTeach February 21, 2018 at 10:51 pm - Reply

    Light freezing rain here in Pleasant Hill. Driveway is already a bit slick.

  46. Glennkw February 21, 2018 at 10:53 pm - Reply

    Freezing drizzle in Leavenworth

  47. Mr. Pete February 21, 2018 at 10:53 pm - Reply

    Heat is right, just the State offices in Topeka will be closed. Initially they said state wide….

  48. Amanda February 21, 2018 at 10:56 pm - Reply

    It’s still a light raining in lake lotawana Missouri. My border collie just came in soaked!

  49. KS Jones February 21, 2018 at 11:02 pm - Reply

    Getting sleet — our road, driveway and walkways are now solidly white.

  50. Grambo624 February 21, 2018 at 11:10 pm - Reply

    Freezing drizzle here in Lee’s Summit.

  51. MattinLeavenworth February 21, 2018 at 11:32 pm - Reply

    We got a smidgen of ice, I walked on the roads and they are driveable up here in downtown LV. Nothing coming down at the moment. The slick spots are still from the other night. That was nuts.

  52. Tim February 21, 2018 at 11:34 pm - Reply

    Decent freezing drizzle here in Lone Jack

  53. Mr. Pete February 22, 2018 at 1:47 am - Reply

    Freezing rain / drizzle in Prairie Village now.

  54. Freezemiser February 22, 2018 at 1:57 am - Reply

    Light freezing rain in east Independence.

  55. Phillip February 22, 2018 at 3:27 am - Reply

    Don’t think we’ll have a problem getting above freezing today. That rain later will be just that… rain and not freezing

  56. Mr. Pete February 22, 2018 at 5:52 am - Reply

    SMSD is closed today.

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