Extreme Drought Is Expanding

/Extreme Drought Is Expanding

Extreme Drought Is Expanding

Good morning bloggers,

We have been concerned this entire season that a drought would be expanding out towards Kansas City.  Droughts are either expanding or contracting. This one is definitely expanding out right now and we can hope that what happened last spring could happen again, and the drought would shrink as we move into April and May, but again, I have concerns.  Amarillo, TX is experiencing something incredible.  Imagine how we would feel if we lived their this winter.  It may not have been as frustrating in Amarillo, when you compare their experience to what weather enthusiasts have experienced in KC.  At least KC has had many chances and seven snowfalls thus far, and a few other minor icing events. Amarillo has had nothing, and not even a chance of anything.  Their previous record without any measurable rain or snow was 75 days. This record is now 48 days longer than any record dry spell in their recorded history:

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The dry weather in Amarillo is expanding out across southern Kansas and most of Oklahoma. It is now being placed in the Extreme Drought category by the Climate Prediction Center’s Drought Monitor:

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Seasonal Differences Showing Up: This May Lead To A Wild Winter Month Ahead

The fourth cycle of this years pattern will begin in ten to fifteen days.  Jeff and I were analyzing this pattern yesterday and we saw some strong similarities to October showing up. One seasonal difference that could happen if we do indeed have more functional storm systems in October will be Arctic air. There was no Arctic air available in October, but there will likely be a rather large Arctic air mass available in this fourth cycle if this map below is at all accurate.  Here is the temperature forecast valid on February 21st, right around the time the fourth cycle of this years LRC will begin.

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This years pattern is cycling every 44-51 days, averaging on a 47-day cycle.  I will make a video for tomorrows blog to show you the first three cycles of this years LRC.  It is rather incredible.  Amarillo, TX last measurable precipitation actually did happen within the first cycle of this years pattern. October 13th is the last precipitation they had; 0.01″ on October 13th, 0.05″ on October 9th.  So, that first storm of the season produced as the LRC was setting up, but not much. Remember, we identify this years pattern to have started around October 7th.  The old weather pattern from the previous year was falling apart around the last week of September into that first week of October. We can call this the transition period of the cycling pattern.   Four days before October 7th, in this transition period, over two inches of rain fell in Amarillo. Something very different began happening just as this years LRC started.

So, here we are about to move into cycle 4.  What can we expect?

  • Will it stay dry in Amarillo?
  • Will the frustrations continue in KC?
  • Will Chicago get blasted again?
  • Will Los Angeles get only their second storm of the season?
  • Will the drought expand and worsen, or begin shrinking?

These questions will be answered in the next few weeks.  Los Angeles had one deadly winter storm this season where over a dozen people were killed in a landslide/mudslide in Ventura county, just north of Los Angeles. A storm produced 1.77″ on January 8th-9th. Do you know what is just blowing my mind this morning, amongst most of what I am writing today?  Los Angeles, downtown at the Civic Center, had only 0.12″ from October 1st through January 7th, and only 0.01″ since January 8th. So, they literally have had only one storm system produce this rainy season.  With a 47-day average cycle, this part of the pattern is due back in California around February 25th.  The driest year in Los Angeles history is around 3.75″, so they need almost 2 more inches of rain just to get to the driest year ever.

The AO and NAO:

What could be HUGE for a major difference in cycle 4?  We have been waiting all winter. One of the reasons I went with 21″ of snow for the winter is that I thought we would have a dip in the AO and NAO indexes a few times, a dip into negative territory. I have seen some indications on recent model runs of blocking developing in the right spots that would benefit KC. Well, for this blocking to happen, we would like to see a big negative dip in the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. The NAO dip would be something that just has not happened at all.  Well, could our dreams be answered? Take a look at this mornings indexes that just came out:

Screen Shot 2018-02-13 at 7.42.34 AM

Screen Shot 2018-02-13 at 7.42.51 AM

What are we seeing here? Look at those huge dips. Now, these dips, these forecasts are based on the ensemble member runs of the models and we have seen these forecast to happen a couple times before. When the pattern set up in October, I saw the potential for a big dip in these indexes in that first cycle, but when it came down to it, the dip never quite happened. There were a few small dips into negative territory, but no impacting ones. Look at these dips in both of these indexes.

If this were to happen, the big negative dips, then we will likely see an upper high form over Greenland, and maybe over northern Canada or Alaska. This would force the jet stream to be stronger and farther south.  Combine this possibility with that 17-day stretch of stomier weather that produced in October (KC had nearly 5″ of rain in October), then we may be about to see a true winter storm in KC for the first time this winter, and Amarillo’s incredible dry spell may be broken.  It’ something to ponder in the next few days.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Click here Weather2020 Blog to join in the conversation, which should be quite interesting today. Have a great Tuesday!

Gary

2018-02-16T07:56:49+00:00 February 13th, 2018|General|61 Comments

61 Comments

  1. DanT February 13, 2018 at 8:19 am - Reply

    Interesting write up. A couple of questions I have about the seasonal differences in cycle 1 and then cycle 4 has to do with moisture availability. Will it be there to give us some exciting weather in the form of snow? Two, if the AO and NAO have not gone that negative yet, why now?

    • Gary February 13, 2018 at 8:34 am - Reply

      DanT,

      There are likely answers hidden somewhere within the cycling pattern hypothesis. The cycling pattern has not been favorable for the big dips into negative territory, and with very little blocking experienced as a result. As the jet stream just reached peak strength and it begins weakening gradually from this point forward, all the way until it reaches its weakest strength in late July or early August, some seasonal differences can be expected. In October, a big ridge formed over the southeastern United States, and this is likely to return in this next cycle. The ridge, was a bit farther east in cycle 2, the one that helped create our boring November. If it is a bit farther west in late February and March, then there will be room for the blocking to develop, for the southeastern ridge to pop up, and for an upper high to form over Greenland, which has not happened once this season. It has been forecast to happen a few times, but then it gets wiped out by vigorous storm systems that move into the northwest Atlantic. Just a slight shift and we may see this blocking. We need it to happen for some different results in Amarillo, Los Angeles, and KC.

      Gary

    • Three7s February 13, 2018 at 8:34 am - Reply

      The AO has gone negative, but not significantly. The NAO has been neutral to positive all winter. If I have this correctly, the AO determines the amount of arctic air that comes surging through from Canada. The NAO determines whether or not stronger storms can hit us while cold air is in place. You need to have both go negative to really have a big winter storm. If those ensembles verify, it could get interesting, but I just don’t buy it at this point.

      One thing to note is that Gary is unable determine if there is a cycling pattern to the AO/NAO, so the potential for a twist is definitely there.

      • Gary February 13, 2018 at 8:50 am - Reply

        One day, I believe we will be able to use the CPH (LRC) to determine the potential for negative and positive phases of these other indexes. Onto your assessment of the AO determining Arctic blasts to the south. Well, this winter was a tough one to judge that on, as it didn’t quite work. Without any true blocking and any negative dips in these indexes, the Arctic air was still able to blast south.

        Gary

  2. Snow Miser February 13, 2018 at 8:21 am - Reply

    I wanted a “true winter storm” in December, not late February or March. 🙁

  3. Three7s February 13, 2018 at 8:26 am - Reply

    Highly doubt it, but we’ll see.

  4. Terry February 13, 2018 at 8:50 am - Reply

    Dream can come true . Bring it on some late winter storm.

  5. LYITC41 February 13, 2018 at 9:12 am - Reply

    Here a “twist” there a “twist”…..just some good soaking rain please (above freezing) and thank you.

  6. KS Jones February 13, 2018 at 9:37 am - Reply

    Last week, Accuweather made a spring forecast.
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-us-spring-forecast-cold-snow-to-linger-in-the-northeast-severe-storms-to-kick-off-early-in-south/70004044
    Temperatures to ride roller coaster in central and northern Plains
    Temperatures will ride a roller coaster in the central and northern Plains, with short-lived warmups arriving at times.
    “In April, we could see a pretty good bubble burst in the central Plains states where temperatures are going to take off for a while,” Pastelok said. However, they’re likely to reverse for a time in May.
    While the northern and central Plains contend with surges of cold air, a mid-spring warmup will grace the southern Plains.
    Severe storms will threaten to ignite from time to time in places like Tulsa, Oklahoma; and Houston and Austin, Texas.

  7. Urbanity February 13, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

    Record drought located in the heart of wind farm country.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wind_farms_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Wind_farm_map_2015.png

    The GFS keeps the drought area rain-free even though the weather pattern would indicate it should rain in those areas in the next 10-15 days. The model outputs don’t make sense given the surface features, so what gives? The NOAA has discussed the automated precipitation data adjustment in forecasting models based on wind farm locations, I don’t know how far they have taken that.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE February 13, 2018 at 9:55 am - Reply

      I cant help but notice a lot of wind farms on the east coast, yet they aren’t having any problems with wind farms killing their precip. No problems like that whatsoever, until you get to an area that’s very close to semi-arid like Central and Western KS that are already naturally dry. Couple that with already fickle convective rainfall patterns and you might drive yourself crazy. If I had a wind farm to blame every time a storm dried up, fell apart, or reorganized just in time to miss my farm I would go mad myself. We already have enough things naturally happen in weather to make us crazy, if we have the slightest suspicion that there is something to blame we probably will. I blame my own passion for weather sometimes as why I got missed, like God wanted to punish me for something I did ( I know its crazy).

      • Three7s February 13, 2018 at 9:59 am - Reply

        I don’t buy the wind farms either. It’s just Kansas being Kansas.

      • Urbanity February 13, 2018 at 10:41 am - Reply

        I’m not selling the wind farm data because it is fact, it speaks for itself and is common knowledge even with the NOAA, the question is the magnitude of the effect. There are a lot of other factors that impact the weather effects of the wind farm, available moisture, wind speed and direction, size of the wind farm, and the quantity of energy produced in a geographical location whether it’s one farm or twenty. The largest wind farm in the USA is in southern California, operation began after 2011. But Hume you answered the question perfectly, in areas that are semi-arid, and have fickle convective rainfall patterns, the effects are magnified.

        It will take history to prove it out to the masses, but then it will probably get blamed on climate change. I know there are droughts all the time somewhere in the USA, but I am referring to the impact on precipitation events. I have seen first hand, since I live near a wind farm, and have observed weather my entire life, the wind turbines effect the storms, effect their strength and movement. There is no denying it in my opinion.

        • KS Jones February 13, 2018 at 11:47 am - Reply

          As you said, it will take history to prove (or disprove) the theory, so I’ll keep an eye on the precipitation rates near the wind farm in northeast Marshall County. A few of those new windmills are south of US-36, but most are slightly north of the highway, and that general area experienced a serious drought in 2017. A crop insurance agent said his worst report was from the US-36 corridor on the Nemaha-Marshall county line, where a corn field yielded only 6 bushels per acre. 
          I don’t believe electromagnetic fields at the earth’s surface would have an impact on conditions at 30,000′, but the inadequate sampling (outlined below) would suggest otherwise, so let’s see what happens this year.
          http://kmea.com/marshall-wind-farm/
          Marshall Wind Farm
          March 25, 2016
          Four EMP1 cities are one step closer to full participation in KMEA’s first renewable energy electricity resource, the new Marshall Wind Farm.  Located in northeast Kansas in (northeastern) Marshall County, the 72 MW facilities is comprised of thirty-six, 2 MW V110 Vestas turbines.
          ……
          Drought in that area, September 2017 
          http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20170926/20170926_KS_date.png

      • Classy Cat February 13, 2018 at 5:10 pm - Reply

        Nice point

  8. REAL HUMEDUDE February 13, 2018 at 9:46 am - Reply

    I don’t buy that we have to have negative AO/NAO indexes for a real winter storm, I would like to see numbersguy crunch some figures to see our top 10 biggest snows and the those indexes at the time of the storm. I bet at least half them don’t fit that profile, that’s just my hunch I’m no trained met. Those negative indexes may favor such systems but I don’t see how blocking in Greenland is THE factor that makes our storms dig into the SW and pull gulf moisture like they do when we get a good winter storm. Like I say the blocking may help, but it cant be the IT factor with Greenland being like 3+ thousand miles away from us. When we get a good storm we often can see it way out in the Pacific, it turns down the west Coast, moves into the Desert SW and opens the gulf moisture supply. It has not done this for 4 years straight, totally different patters with identical results. I bet in the past 4 years we have had several instances of negative NAO/AO but no big strong winter storm happened, did it?

    • Three7s February 13, 2018 at 10:20 am - Reply

      High pressure over Greenland forces the jet stream to track further to the south, giving us better chances of stronger storms.

    • Troy Newman February 13, 2018 at 2:32 pm - Reply

      I agree that the problem is a lack of storms coming in from the SW. Then its a matter of luck to get a storm to track where you need it. Most winter storms don’t have a real wide path of snow so our chances aren’t that good even with a negative NAO. When you get a storm swinging in from the 4 corners once a week eventually you probably will get lucky a time of two. When it happens once in every 45-50 days your odds go way down. The fact that the Southern High Plains is so incredibly dry is a strong indicator that nothing has been coming from that direction this year.

    • numb3rsguy February 13, 2018 at 3:04 pm - Reply

      I’d be able to tell you the 10 biggest storms in KC history, but I don’t know a resource to see what the NAO and AO were during those times. If someone has a reference, I’d be happy to look it up!

      • KS Jones February 13, 2018 at 4:33 pm - Reply

        On November 9th of last year, Blue Flash posted this link to the AO’s positive and negative history.
        https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-variability-arctic-oscillation

        • Troy Newman February 13, 2018 at 6:04 pm - Reply

          Thanks for the link. It does show some correlation as the winter of 09-10 and 12-13 where pretty big snow years.

          • Three7s February 13, 2018 at 7:10 pm - Reply

            There are some anomalies as well, like the 1989-1990 winter. We got quite a bit of snow in March of 1990 and it was a sky high positive AO. I think that just goes to show you that the cycling pattern takes precedent, but the AO/NAO can bring you a twist potentially.

  9. LYITC41 February 13, 2018 at 10:43 am - Reply

    Wind farms and weather-no connection- just a coincidence of geography and the weather that happens to be occurring there.

  10. Richard February 13, 2018 at 10:43 am - Reply

    Gary
    So I heard you on 810 this a.m.
    6 years ago today was the end of the snowflake contest for 2011-2012 winter ? Wow
    What did the rest of that winter do ?

    And hope your arm gets better. You mentioned it was the arm that had the tumor, and was operated on.
    Did they do an MRI yesterday ?
    Jake mentioned you might need Tommy John surgery. Seriously ?
    Sorry if too many questions.

    • Gary February 13, 2018 at 10:54 am - Reply

      The guys on the radio are just embellishing. I am not going to need surgery. My arm is already better today. And, it is not related to the aggressive bone cancer I conquered 19 years ago.

      Thanks for your concerns. In that 2011-2012 winter we set the record for the lowest snow total in KC history at 3.9″.

      Gary

  11. Lary Gezak February 13, 2018 at 10:46 am - Reply

    12z GFS is horrendous

    • Gary February 13, 2018 at 10:56 am - Reply

      It does have a six inch snowstorm from I-35 south at 240 hours. OMG! So, horrendous for Amarillo, but KC on the suffering edge. And, by suffering means we will likely end up with a dusting to an inch as we already know, right? We need that blocking. Cycle 4 isn’t set to begin until right around day 10 when this storm is showing up. And, just as it begins, that blocking develops around 288 hours. So, hang on. WE MUST GET THE BLOCKING or more of the same will happen.

      Gary

      • Lary Gezak February 13, 2018 at 10:59 am - Reply

        Most likely the half-0.8″ snow that we’ve become accustomed to. Same old song and dance

      • Bobbie February 13, 2018 at 11:28 am - Reply

        Just 10 days away 😉

  12. Snowflake February 13, 2018 at 11:22 am - Reply

    Gary –

    When you went to that ag conference a couple weeks ago out in Manhattan, what did you tell the farmers about the upcoming spring/summer growing season?

    Drought? Or rain? Hot or cold?

  13. Stl78 February 13, 2018 at 2:17 pm - Reply

    We’re goin to make a run at 40 tom up here. Hell yeah!

    • Richard February 13, 2018 at 4:30 pm - Reply

      Sounds good. Above freezing

  14. numb3rsguy February 13, 2018 at 3:08 pm - Reply

    Paul Dorian over at Vencore Weather in the Northeast has an interesting take on the coming weather. He points towards 4 different things that indicate a colder pattern in 10-15 days, and lasting into March. He cites the NAO and AO forecasts, the sudden stratospheric warming event in the arctic, the possibility of high latitude blocking forming, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Does the LRC predict colder weather after the next 10-15 days of more mild weather?

    https://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2018/2/13/1215-pm-numerous-signs-point-to-a-return-of-a-colder-than-normal-pattern-for-the-eastern-us-during-late-february-and-march

    • KS Jones February 13, 2018 at 4:41 pm - Reply

      That was basically what Accuweather predicted.
      https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-us-spring-forecast-cold-snow-to-linger-in-the-northeast-severe-storms-to-kick-off-early-in-south/70004044
      Chill to hang on in Northeast, mid-Atlantic and Midwest states
      In the Midwest, cities such as Minneapolis, Chicago and Milwaukee could receive snow as late as the end of April.
      “If it does warm up, it won’t last for a long duration. I think [warmth] comes in spurts throughout March, April and May,” AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecast Paul Pastelok said.

    • Troy Newman February 13, 2018 at 6:07 pm - Reply

      Bastardi saying the same thing. Of course all of the things they are looking at are still model output so that doesn’t guarantee it. Just seeing how often we have gotten cold would make you think winter isn’t going to go quietly this year.

  15. Richard February 13, 2018 at 5:37 pm - Reply

    Just heard on kmbz radio news that Missouri is having its driest winter in nearly 40 years

    • Bluetooth February 13, 2018 at 7:31 pm - Reply

      Richard, I sure hope that the pattern has some twists up its sleeve for the spring–otherwise the farmers are going to have a tough time.

  16. Carl February 13, 2018 at 6:08 pm - Reply

    Lots of positivity on here today. Couple questions…..I have been hearing for the last couple years that overall, the Midwest has been trending towards wetter than average conditions. Clearly these last 4 winters haven’t adhered to that. Secondly, to my surprise there seems to be more and more rumbling about a decrease in solar activity leading towards cooler temps for 50-60 years. It’s happend before (Maunder Minimum). Is the next one right around the corner?

    • Richard February 13, 2018 at 6:21 pm - Reply

      Bluetooth can answer that one.

    • Richard February 13, 2018 at 6:23 pm - Reply

      *about the solar minimum …Bluetooth talked a lot about it a couple weeks ago.

      • Bluetooth February 13, 2018 at 7:20 pm - Reply

        Richard, the solar minimum I guess happens between the solar cycle peaks. For example, solar cycle 24 peaked a while back and is now headed for somewhat of a trough, in other words very low solar output (sunspots). Cycle 24 was weaker than cycle 23 which was weaker than cycle 22. According to some, the fear is an ongoing weakening of subsequent cycles and depending on who you talk to, this decreased energy from the sun could lead to cooling here on earth. Some believe in global warming and see no effect or a possible cancelling out of the temperature increases which would be good. If you don’t believe in global warming, you are more likely to see these decreases as evidence of a new little ice age. Who is right in this debate? Only time will tell. I will say that a warmer climate would be, in my opinion easier to adapt to than a cooler one.

    • JoeK February 13, 2018 at 7:26 pm - Reply

      Carl,

      I tend to lean in the direction of the “cooling” theory. I have been researching these topics for quite some time and some very convincing data to back it up. Not 100% sold on it yet, but seems very plausible

    • Bluetooth February 13, 2018 at 7:28 pm - Reply

      Carl, please see my post below. Lots of opinions on the subject.

    • numb3rsguy February 14, 2018 at 7:16 am - Reply

      The sun goes through a cycle averaging 11 years called the Schwabe Cycle, in which the number of sunspots increases, peaks, and then decreases into a minimum. It is theorized (and there is a lot of information to back it up), that there are larger cycles that last hundreds and even thousands of years that dictate the maximum and minimum of the 11 year cycles. They call these “Grand Solar Minimum”. The last major one was from 1790-1830, and was called the Dalton Minimum, and was the last major cold snap of the mini ice age that lasted from 1300-1850. The deepest part of the Little Ice Age was the Maunder Minimum, which last from about 1645-1715, where the sun had almost no sunspots. When there are fewer sunspots, the Sun’s magnetic fields are weaker, and more cosmic radiation reaches earth. Cosmic particles are theorized to create aerosols in the atmosphere, which seed clouds and increase cloud cover, this cooling the earth. The main debate is not whether a Grand Solar Minimum will occur, but rather will the cooling from that offset human caused effects on the climate?

      I know a lot about this topic, so if you have any questions, just ask!

  17. Stl78 February 13, 2018 at 6:30 pm - Reply

    Then there would b talk of an ice age, lol. Oh the humanity!

    • Bluetooth February 13, 2018 at 7:22 pm - Reply

      Stl, the prospect of the cold Canadian winter swooping down upon us is chilling. I think they would start referring to us as America, lol.

  18. Troy Newman February 13, 2018 at 7:02 pm - Reply

    I saw a presentation on it not long ago. The person giving it (forgot who) did not think the solar minimum was nearly what happened back in the Little Ice Age and not to expect that severe of a drop. Don’t know if it was credible as I am no expert. I think a cooling planet would be a much bigger threat than a warming one. I remember hearing of frost in June and July during one of these periods. Can you imagine the grain markets if that happened today?? I don’t know if that is really any threat at all though. Its just another example of how many factors there are when you are trying to forecast weather.

    • Bluetooth February 13, 2018 at 7:24 pm - Reply

      Troy, good post. I typed a response that shows up higher in the discussion than I intended.

      • Troy Newman February 13, 2018 at 8:31 pm - Reply

        Much more professional looking than what I had. Very interesting.

        • Bluetooth February 13, 2018 at 8:53 pm - Reply

          Very interesting. The only way that we will know for sure is how the next cycle performs– high or low sunspots…

  19. JoeK February 13, 2018 at 7:27 pm - Reply

    Carl,

    I tend to lean in the direction of the “cooling” theory. I have been researching these topics for quite some time and some very convincing data to back it up. Not 100% sold on it yet, but seems very plausible

    • Bluetooth February 13, 2018 at 7:33 pm - Reply

      Joe, what are your thoughts on the upcoming cycle 25??

      • JoeK February 13, 2018 at 9:51 pm - Reply

        Bluetooth,

        The theory is that each cycle represents a half cycle so with that in mind, Cycle 25 could be fairly similar to cycle 24, maybe a touch weaker with a continued reduction of CME’s, SPE’s and sunspots. Again, there is some compelling evidence to support overall cooling between now and 2030/35. Seems to be a battle of theories and we will know who wins soon enough.

        • JoeK February 13, 2018 at 10:26 pm - Reply

          Bluetooth,

          Almost forgot to add, I agree, a cooling climate would be a very bad thing as it would impact crop production whereas the opposite would be true for global warming, one positive side effect would be longer growing seasons resulting in an increase in food supply.

  20. Josh February 13, 2018 at 7:45 pm - Reply

    My thoughts are that drought will expand and we have tiny storm systems here and there, not amounting to much. La Nina drought is showing it’s ugly face unfortunately! Bring on any moisture at this point…

  21. MattinLeavenworth February 13, 2018 at 8:02 pm - Reply

    That drought in SW KS is not good, or for western KS. They say the ogallala aquifer out there is roughly 20 years before its not usable. I truly see western/SW KS becoming a high desert type of climate in the future. Elevation out there is between 3,000ft to just over 4,000ft near the Colorado border. If they can not grow and irrigate like they have enjoyed for decades that land wont even be worth ranching cattle on. It really isnt that great right now as it is.

    • KS Jones February 13, 2018 at 8:35 pm - Reply

      Well, there is always this hairbrained scheme.
      http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article6504177.html
      January 14, 2015 
      It would cost more than $18 billion to build and finance a canal to pump water from the Missouri River to parched areas in southwest Kansas, engineers have concluded. . . Those estimates are part of a draft report posted on the website of the Kansas Water Office. . . The summary does not address the feasibility of the project or its merits. . . a 360-mile concrete ditch with 15 pumping stations . . . The draft report assumes a 20-year construction timetable . . . The $18 billion estimate includes interest on construction loans. Ongoing interest costs, it found, could add $600 million annually to the operating costs, bringing the total yearly price tag for running the canal to $1 billion. . .  The report does not say where the money might come from to build the canal. 

      • Troy Newman February 13, 2018 at 8:49 pm - Reply

        One estimate I heard said it would cost $400/acre foot by one estimate. (Takes about 2 AF for a corn crop down in the SW). So its going to take a little higher corn price to pay for $800/acre expense.

        • Bluetooth February 13, 2018 at 8:55 pm - Reply

          This sounds very pricey but what other choice do we have? Change the type of crops/type of farming?

    • Troy Newman February 13, 2018 at 8:36 pm - Reply

      I am involved in agriculture and understand why those farmers pump water as its is the most feasible thing for them to do right now. Considering what a valuable resource water is and that we are producing more corn than we need (and making very little money at best) I wonder if people will regret that the water is gone when a more valuable use comes up?

  22. Remembercody February 13, 2018 at 9:11 pm - Reply

    I don’t get it. Did the AO/NAO not go deep negative for us in KC because we were just in a bad spot? What about for the Deep South when they experienced snow…twice? Aren’t those locations also like KC in regard to needing the AO/NAO to go deep negative so it can snow for them as well?

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